I have owned/fixed many bikes over my lifetime, things you might have missed:
Wheel hub bearings.
Headset bearings.
Headset crown. (They start to get pitted.)
Pedal bearings.
Front Derailleur cage. (The steel cage eventually wears too thin, due to chain contact.)
Spokes. (A few spare spokes for each wheel.)
Seatposts commonly gets stuck with corrosion, they need to be moved every year or so.
Saddles get too soft over time and lose their shape.
Yes, my experience is that it's mainly bearings that wear, but with regular maintenance they will last many years.
Thanks. I was mainly thinking of things which if they broke wouldn't be replaceable, or at least not with new, high quality equivalents. Hence why I've got 3 pairs of New Old Stock Ultegra levers, plus some good used ones, several XT M772 rear derailleurs, either NOS or good used.
But to consider your list.
The hubs are Shimano M525A, which I think are thought of as reasonably robust. The freehub is steel, rather than aluminium. I've bought Grade 10 Chromo steel balls for front and back, which I'll use to replace the stainless ones Shimano use when I service them this summer. I've already squirted some SFG into the free hub, as suggested, and use Silkoline Pro RG2 for the wheel bearings themselves. I don't ride in the rain by choice, and nowhere particularly dirty. So with maintenance I'm hoping for a long life. But I've got a spare rear hub already, that I can use to replace three quarters of the bearings. But I'm hoping that 135mm disc hubs will be available for a very long time.
The headset is loose ball (it used to be caged). I've replaced the ones that came with it with Grade 10 chrome steel ones, and relubed with Comma CV grease, which is the thickest blackest stuff I've ever seen. I have mudguards so that limits damage to lower headset. But much like the wheel hubs, I'm assuming headsets of some sort with be available for 1 1/8 steerers for a very long time. I'd not heard of headset crowns getting pitted. I'll keep an eye on that.
I haven't had the pedals long, They use loose balls. I'll get some good quality ones soon, or maybe just a refurb kit, if Shimano make one. But again, pedals are going to be available.
I've got 3 front derailleurs.
Spa gave me spare spokes when I bought the wheel. There are 3 types, I might buy a few more as spares. But I've not broken one, yet.
Yes, I move my seatpost every so often.
I've got a couple of saddles. Including a lovely Brooks which is comfy, but I couldn't get it far enough back. I'll probably put it back on when I buy a Nitto S84. I think saddles aren't going to go out of fashion soon.
I'm a "maintainer". Regular relubing with appropriate grease/oil and replacement of loose balls is something I actually enjoy. So, along with a few NOS spares as replacements, I feel comfortable this bike will see me out.
Cheers.