Does the Met office know anything?

[Ian H]

That elevation was just the hill at the end of your estate

I think he might have done a Cadbury, or possibly a Whitestone.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

On average, out of every 20 days where it is 5%, it will rain on one of them.

Well there’s an approx 64.2% chance of that being the case. It’s 14 days at which it moves into probable territory

 

[ColinJ]

I think he might have done a Cadbury, or possibly a Whitestone.

Funny - I was just looking at the routes I did last time I was down and I did both!

This was my Cadbury loop...

 

[Ian H]

One of our Saturday Social routes goes up to Bickleigh, a back way past Cadbury to Crediton, out to Tedburn and home. Finish on the quay at our favourite cafe. Then, if I'm feeling energetic, I might go a long way back to Honiton.

 

[alicat]

I never look at the forecast and so I'm never surprised nor disappointed. Works for me!

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Here the Met Office etc get maybe one day correct each week if I am being generous.

The mountains make forecasts problematic.

We tend towards the 'it is what it is when you look out of the window in the morning' rationale.

 

[Alex321]

Well there’s an approx 64.2% chance of that being the case. It’s 14 days at which it moves into probable territory

Actually, there is 100% chance of that being the case.

I did not say it will rain once in any 20 day period. I said on average it would do so. Which is absolutely correct if the chance each day is 5% (and the chance each day is independent).

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Actually, there is 100% chance of that being the case.

I did not say it will rain once in any 20 day period. I said on average it would do so. Which is absolutely correct if the chance each day is 5% (and the chance each day is independent).

No it’s not 100% that’s not how independent probabilities of events occurring works.

 

[Alex321]

No it’s not 100% that’s not how independent probabilities of events occurring works.

It absolutely is 100%. I have no idea why you believe otherwise.

That is more or less the definition. If there is an independent 5% chance of something occurring on any given day, then on average it will occur once in every 20 days.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

It absolutely is 100%. I have no idea why you believe otherwise.

That is more or less the definition. If there is an independent 5% chance of something occurring on any given day, then on average it will occur once in every 20 days.

If I toss a coin twice, the probability that it has come up heads once is not 100%. Same rules apply here, you do not simplistically add up the probability of an event happening once (in this case the probability it rains on a single day).

 

[matticus]

Well there’s an approx 64.2% chance of that being the case. It’s 14 days at which it moves into probable territory

I think this illustrates how variable our use of language can be around probabilities. You're saying "there's a 64% chance of X happening"; I would view that as "X will probably happen" [not certain though!].

YOU say it needs to be a higher probability before it becomes "probable" !!! :P

 

[Alex321]

If I toss a coin twice, the probability that it has come up heads once is not 100%. Same rules apply here, you do not simplistically add up the probability of an event happening once (in this case the probability it rains on a single day).

Correct.

But then I have never suggested otherwise. Perhaps you misread what I said?

 

[MontyVeda]

yr.no

Works for us.

I tend to use the Beeb for the quick at a glance yet not very reliable forecast, Ventusky for the rain radar, and YR as the possibly more reliable than the Beeb forecast. For once, today, all three give pretty much the same forecast in my area.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

I tend to use the Beeb for the quick at a glance yet not very reliable forecast, Ventusky for the rain radar, and YR as the possibly more reliable than the Beeb forecast. For once, today, all three give pretty much the same forecast in my area.

Ventusky precipitation is pretty good - decent App too.

For me, that and MWIS form the backdrop to any local mountain activities I undertake.

 

[Fab Foodie]

I think he might have done a Cadbury, or possibly a Whitestone.

Yep, up from Creddy station and Whitestone hillish, then Pathfinder over the A30 down and up and over Haldon hill and down into Dawlish. Back up the estuary to Cowley and the back road home. 3040 feet 46 miles....
Double locks for beer 😀