It would seem that 'Cycle Schemes' have limited impact as suggested by a study in the BMJ. There is a report about it on the
BBC web site.
Are these schemes a waste of money, or is a 3.4% rise in cycling good enough?
No 3.4% is'nt good enough, and to some extent these schemes are a waste of money.
There are a number of reason's i believe these schemes are currently not working aswell as they could.
The first being that these schemes as far as targeting the public are badly managed and most people that dont have an initial interess in cycling will not have heard of them. The answer to this is better targeting, how this would be achieved i dont know.
The second is lack of incentive, for your avg family of 2 adults and 2.4 children, buying cheap
halfords bikes would cost around £300 - £400 and for most families that puts the purchase into the category of luxury. Imagine if with the purchase of a bike you received a voucher giving you 5% discount on your vehicle tax.
The third being safety, our current cycle route network is poorly maintained and a large part of the time to close to moving traffic, therefore people are intimidated by using it, if however the govt were to properly maintain routes and increase the safety aspect you would likely find an increase in users.
That does'nt mean that these schemes should be stopped, just that more thought should go into there design and application..
Edit : Obviously i am strictly talking about the UK as for the other countries i have no knowledge or experience of them.