Nibali seems, and has seemed, further off the pace so far this year. My Fishyometer will be twitching if he's back on top form at the TdF.
In the races so far he hasn't seem any different from his pace last year.
He did end last years DL in 7th place, so he did do this one better last year, but he very clearly didn't push through at all when he was feeling bad. He was like riding in 6th place (in a peloton of still 30-ish riders) when he just put himself aside and rocketed to the back and out of the peloton. If he would have tried to hang on, you would have rather seen him slipping to the back of the peloton.
The way Astana has been riding this year, he is still my pick to win the Tour
(I made that pick in my head after stage 5 of the Giro, since Astana had absolutely dominated the stage for the 2nd day in a row)
This was one of my comments on stage 4
:
They are a quarter of the peloton when going over the top of the Passo del Termine (5 Astana's in a total of 20 riders)