I know I sound like a broken record, but now isn't the time for throwing in the towel and conceding a series defeat as you appear to be doing. It's just one test. If England get rolled over at Lords I may change my mind. But not after just one game
No, I admire your optimism. Having been a huge cricket fan and very active player all my life (well, 54 out of 57 years) I've become used to all the 'rebirths' of England cricket, I have developed a pessimism for these false dawns.
I always played sport and competed to the very end, even when losing heavily or inevitably, and of course England won't throw in the towel after the first Test, but knowing how Australia seem to have this ability to play mind games with their opponents, then a series win is on the cards.
However, like England, their batting is heavily reliant on one or two batsmen (Aus = Smith and Warner, Eng = Root). And that's it, I'm afraid. Some players may smote a fifty, but small runs HAVE to be converted into BIG runs and regularly.
The bowling is quite even, although Australian fire-power is greater and more numerous than England's. Also Lyon is a league of his own.
So, based on the above, that's why I fear the Ashes will be (metaphorically speaking) heading south. Of course I hope I'm wrong and that someone can step up to the plate (like Burns did in the first innings).