COVID Vaccine !

[oldwheels]

I think there will be partially effective vaccines at stopping people get infected. The WHO benchmark is 30%. There will be vaccines that exceed this but it is likely to end up trickier in some cases who to give it to and waiting for 'better' ones.

They will be "available" in 2021 for a "lucky" few million people. No vaccine for kingrollo, or the elite on here, or the peasants. A few of the very eldest of cyclechat may get the vaccine and people like midlife and MarkF may be bunged a vaccine.

I never quote my age but I have a fair guess I am the oldest cyclechatter so I should be alright then so long as I last long enough. I was described once as the grandfather of the cycle club although that was more as a founding member I think.

 

[Unkraut]

I heard a couple of days ago that the state government is starting to procure and stockpile the means of giving a vaccine in large quantities. This could either mean they take seriously the possibility of there being a vaccine in the reasonably near future, or it could be that they don't want to be caught unprepared as was the case at the beginning of the epidemic (wasn't just the UK) but actually nothing is just around the corner.

I get the feeling mass production is thought to be months away rather than weeks.

There are a couple of candidates for vaccines here that are at the same stage as the Oxford trials, but a reliable one in the near future (Christmas) is being played down to prevent false expectations.

I suspect the two Russian vaccines haven't been tested enough, and prestige has been put ahead of safety.

 

[lane]

"According to deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam, the vaccine, created at Oxford University and manufactured by AstraZeneca, should be available just after Christmas, report the Sunday Times.
Mr Van-Tam told MPs last week stage three trials of the vaccine mean a mass rollout is on the horizon and thousands of NHS staff are to undergo training to administer the vaccine before the end of the year."

Mr Van-Tam said: “We aren't light years away from it. It isn't a totally unrealistic suggestion we could deploy a vaccine soon after Christmas. That would have a significant impact on hospital admissions and deaths.
“Vaccines are being developed at a speed that, if successful, will save lives.”
The first vaccines will be given to the elderly and vulnerable and to vaccinate those most at risk will take several months. Most people will not be given the jab.

So to vaccinate those most at risk will take several months. Who are the most at risk? It would appear the plan is to have roughly the same criteria as the flu jab (but not the young children) and probably stop there on the basis that deaths are low enough in other groups not be an issue. How many would that be - about 10 million maybe?

From what I gather there is also a moral question about giving the vaccine to low risk patients in this country when high risk elsewhere can't get it.

 

[marinyork]

That's the plan Lane. It depends on if the first vaccine works well enough in those very high age groups.

There are different types of vaccine and little is known how some types will interact with the immune systems of older populations. That's why the government has dibs on about 12.

It will be the most precious commodity on earth, we should expect arguments.

 

[marinyork]

Mr Van-Tam told MPs last week stage three trials of the vaccine mean a mass rollout is From what I gather there is also a moral question about giving the vaccine to low risk patients in this country when high risk elsewhere can't get it.

Practical as well as moral. Hoarding 66x2 million doses initially when you can't give them is moronic if people are still dropping dead in sickeningly high numbers in ROI, Spain, Netherlands, France, Germany and places we trade and have visitors from. Let alone the third world. It's not a provincial virus.

 

[kingrollo]

Practical as well as moral. Hoarding 66x2 million doses initially when you can't give them is moronic if people are still dropping dead in sickeningly high numbers in ROI, Spain, Netherlands, France, Germany and places we trade and have visitors from. Let alone the third world. It's not a provincial virus.

youve missed me off again.

 

[marinyork]

I never quote my age but I have a fair guess I am the oldest cyclechatter so I should be alright then so long as I last long enough. I was described once as the grandfather of the cycle club although that was more as a founding member I think.

I hope so.

The point I am making is that a lot of people for example in their 70s are going to get a shock when they get told/find out they are getting the jab say 2 months after they start. To borrow a phrase the first wave of vacinations may include a very large number of people but will take months.

The numbers for over 85 risk is just so stark when you see it in the graphs from PHE . So it's right that that is the basic plan if there aren't hiccups or not that effective.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I get the feeling mass production is thought to be months away rather than weeks.

Some of these vaccines are being mass produced already. Both Pfizer and Astrazeneca have started manufacturing.

 

[marinyork]

youve missed me off again.

Kingrollo me old mucker I think you will probably get a vaccine . It'll just be quite a while that's all.

The vaccine given to even higher risk groups than you before is very, very good for you. It just may not feel like it.

Even a few hundred thousand targetted double doses given before the middle of February would help things along. If they work. The plans are for vastly more over a longer period of time.

Jeremy Farrar was talking about monoclonal antibodies today and if that works and can be mass produced another promising treatment.

 

[Julia9054]

I think there are lots of people in all age/risk groups who would rather not be in the first wave of those vaccinated but would prefer to see how others get on first

 

[Chromatic]

I never quote my age but I have a fair guess I am the oldest cyclechatter so I should be alright then so long as I last long enough. I was described once as the grandfather of the cycle club although that was more as a founding member I think.

You are Methuselah AICMFP

 

[marinyork]

I think there are lots of people in all age/risk groups who would rather not be in the first wave of those vaccinated but would prefer to see how others get on first

There will always be not enough data. Luckily for you there are teachers who are selfless who reside in South Africa and Brazil who took the risk so that the Brits like you can get the jab if you were deemed high enough risk and wanted it. The world's a cool place. You don't live in Manaus. If you're lucky enough to get a jab I'm sure you'll be moaning about it whilst thousands die in the 3rd world. But that's what we love on these forums.

 

[Julia9054]

There will always be not enough data. Luckily for you there are teachers who are selfless who reside in South Africa and Brazil who took the risk so that the Brits like you can get the jab if you were deemed high enough risk and wanted it. The world's a cool place. You don't live in Manaus. If you're lucky enough to get a jab I'm sure you'll be moaning about it whilst thousands die in the 3rd world. But that's what we love on these forums.

You do enjoy being snarky about others don't you.
I don't believe I gave my personal opinion about whether I would want to be vaccinated

 

[tom73]

Training is all well and good but you’ve still got to get the stuff sent out. Then it needs storing some maybe fine at room temp. Some are likely to need refrigeration. We simply don’t have enough of them both for transport and local storage. The Stock control alone will be a big job both centrally and at local level. A mistake at any point and 1000’s will useless in one go. The other big logistic issue is PPE and the vast about of clinical waste and sharps. That any mass vaccination will bring that’s on top of the extra already in around.

Then you‘ve got the clinics that need space finding church halls, parks , drive in centres. Not everyone will be able to reach them some may need the DN to call round they are thin on the ground so that will take some away from other work. Using health visitors much more is another blinding option. But too many governments have rip that part of the NHS to bits.
Families with high risk children will need to be high up the line. School nurse service along with GP’s are well experienced in vaccinations. Locally they are the best option to work this stuff out. The only real way this will work is locally ran and planned. But if T&T is anything to go by it’s unlikely to happen.

Last I heard we did not even have enough glass Vials to put the stuff in either.

 

[lane]

It's hard to believe all the negative prophecies on here about logistics and distribution. Surely a government that has made such a mess of PPE and test and trace has to get something right one day.....or perhaps not.