Coronavirus outbreak

[SkipdiverJohn]

You keep quoting Sweden as an economic success story.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html
Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.

The pandemic isn't over yet, it's still in full flow and there's plenty of opportunity for countries that have so far kept the numbers relatively low to be hit very hard at any time.
Sweden seems to be experiencing a steady burn, where the virus is just chugging along, but within the country's capacity to deal with the numbers. That's a good place to be in because it's manageable and the immune population is steadily growing. The places that have thrown the kitchen sink at the virus with hard lockdowns and much collateral damage could find themselves right out of ammunition if/when it comes back.
We'll see in a year or two who is still on their arse and who is up and running, pretty much back to normal.

 

[Johnno260]

The pro-lockdown zealots, of which there are plenty on here, are responsible for this, and it will store up a huge reservoir of dangerous medical conditions in the population. The message for the last few months has been the virus is really really dangerous so don't go anywhere and don't have any contact with anyone, otherwise you're doomed. Having been using non-stop fearmongering tactics to try and frighten the population into staying at home, now they've got a big problem reversing that message and telling people to get medical treatment or resume their normal routines that generate economic activity. There will be a significant amount of behavioral inertia that will not be instantly overcome and it will cause it's own problems.
That's why I have never believed in lockdowns and preferred an advisory self-restraint regime where individuals make a personal decision about how much they interact with or avoid everyone else. Sweden may have a fair bit of virus, but they have never been totally overwhelmed and they are in a much better position to quickly bounce back to normal daily life.
Success is not about just making one country look good in the global league tables, it's about minimising the collateral damage from the virus, both in economic and non-corona related medical terms. The truly worst hit places won't even appear in their real league positions because of having a dysfunctional medical system, being incompetent or corrupt, or just not producing reliable data.. Who really believes the numbers coming out of places like Iran or much of Africa? Even the worst reporting western countries where the data is at least credible, are going to be miles better off than many others below the media radar.

Yup better we trusted the public to do the right thing? And not have a lockdown.. you know how many examples I have witnessed where people can’t be trusted during this whole affair who treated others with utter contempt.

Sorry but the huge swathes of people who can’t see past their own small little bubble can’t be trusted to do the right thing.

Better we flooded the NHS with sick people and had people on the floor and the nightingale pop up hospitals at breaking point.

 

[Rocky]

The pandemic isn't over yet, it's still in full flow and there's plenty of opportunity for countries that have so far kept the numbers relatively low to be hit very hard at any time.
Sweden seems to be experiencing a steady burn, where the virus is just chugging along, but within the country's capacity to deal with the numbers. That's a good place to be in because it's manageable and the immune population is steadily growing. The places that have thrown the kitchen sink at the virus with hard lockdowns and much collateral damage could find themselves right out of ammunition if/when it comes back.
We'll see in a year or two who is still on their arse and who is up and running, pretty much back to normal.

Your posts seem to be an evidence free zone. Just because you keep repeating the same things (over and over) doesn’t make them true.

 

[srw]

The FL infection rate will rapidly rise to a peak, then it will rapidly fall away again. I very much doubt the shape of the infection graph from the point where cases begin to rapidly rise will be that different, apart from the timeline.

That's a prediction. It's testable. That's called doing science.

Here's the latest evidence, and I have to say the prediction isn't looking too clever at the moment.

 

[srw]

A good proportion of the population are heartily sick of the lockdown, really don't give a toss about the virus, and are fully intent on going back to working and socialising as normal. You won't agree with that stance, but you're going to have to deal with it, because that's the reality of the situation.

I've already posted this, but it bears repeating. You're right, if by "a good proportion" you mean "very few"

Infographics from https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/public-opinion-covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic

 

[mjr]

That's a prediction. It's testable. That's called doing science.

Here's the latest evidence, and I have to say the prediction isn't looking too clever at the moment.

View attachment 535357

Slow burn start (was there a lockdown?) and it looks like the current surge has taken 40 days and still going but hasn't yet reached NY's peak level, while NY peaked after 30. So, different, but too soon to say if the surge is worse?

 

[mjr]

The message for the last few months has been the virus is really really dangerous so don't go anywhere and don't have any contact with anyone, otherwise you're doomed.

Your arguments may be more convincing if they were based in reality. The message for the last two months has been Stale Yurts, Control the Walrus, Save Hives, or something about as nonsensical. The stay at home messaging (with laws and more detailed advice both giving loads of exceptions) lasted about six weeks, less than we've had this one.

 

[mjr]

[...] the immune population is steadily growing. The places that have thrown the kitchen sink at the virus with hard lockdowns and much collateral damage could find themselves right out of ammunition if/when it comes back.

1. We still don't know about infection based immunity.
2. Why would lockdown reduce "ammunition"? It seems like delaying the main onslaught gives more time for "rearmament" if you want to use WW2 terms, as you seem to love.
3. We'll see in time. Sweden does seem to have bet on herd immunity, but the UK govt bet hundreds of millions on the Oxford vaccine and then seems to have dithered and bet on farking chance saving us somehow, possibly in the hope that if they have no strategy then at least no one can criticise it for being the wrong strategy!

 

[Inertia]

Your posts seem to be an evidence free zone. Just because you keep repeating the same things (over and over) doesn’t make them true.

The Reliable source of ‘its obvious innit’ and ‘I reckon’

 

[tom73]

If as we are told the evidenced based "Sweden covid plan" by @SkipdiverJohn is the right way.
New Zealand must have dropped the ball big time.
Now remind be which county out the two is well on the way out of this mess?
I expect they got lucky and effective testing , clear public health message, leadership going the right thing at the right time regardless of risking being unpopular. Leadership working with the government scientists and acting on advice and not undermining it. Backed up with a public treated like adults and that when told this is not a game, we have to all work together did just that. All of which has nothing to do with it.

 

[Julia9054]

The pandemic isn't over yet, it's still in full flow and there's plenty of opportunity for countries that have so far kept the numbers relatively low to be hit very hard at any time.
Sweden seems to be experiencing a steady burn, where the virus is just chugging along, but within the country's capacity to deal with the numbers. That's a good place to be in because it's manageable and the immune population is steadily growing. The places that have thrown the kitchen sink at the virus with hard lockdowns and much collateral damage could find themselves right out of ammunition if/when it comes back.
We'll see in a year or two who is still on their arse and who is up and running, pretty much back to normal.

Ok. So despite the fact that they have one of the worst death rates AND economists are predicting that their economy has so far suffered just the same as countries that imposed a lockdown, you know better.

 

[Andy in Germany]

Success is not about just making one country look good in the global league tables,

Funny, it was until the UK slipped to the bottom.

it's about minimising the collateral damage from the virus, both in economic and non-corona related medical terms.

To some extent I see that point. it's why the workshop I work at never closed completely even in the worst of the lockdown because we have a number of clients who would have had massive psychological breakdowns if we had.

On the other hand we are in a country with an effective tracing system and our healthcare system while a bit creaky at times, hasn't been gutted by "austerity". This is why we currently have just over 9000 deaths and regular medical treatment has resumed, in fact in our region we are largely back to normal, with a few situations where we need to wear masks.

 

[flake99please]

Watching CBS News with officials from Louisiana state speaking of hospitals at maximum capacity. ICU account for 30% of patients. Ages from 25+ with no underlying medical conditions now with severe respiratory problems.

They’re literally begging for people to maintain social distancing, wear a mask,and wash their hands frequently. Such a shame to see.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

Watching CBS News with officials from Louisiana state speaking of hospitals at maximum capacity. ICU account for 30% of patients. Ages from 25+ with no underlying medical conditions now with severe respiratory problems.

They’re literally begging for people to maintain social distancing, wear a mask,and wash their hands frequently. Such a shame to see.

They've re-opened Disney world in Florida!

 

[flake99please]

They've re-opened Disney world in Florida!

Insanity.