Coronavirus outbreak

[SkipdiverJohn]

Why is it futile to defer some cases until there are more treatments? There are two working drugs now and more may be found.

Why is it futile to defer some cases until after there is a working vaccine?

Because vaccines take time to develop, and in the meantime the virus could also mutate into a strain that no-one has tried to develop a vaccine for. It's a massive risk, because still having a large uninfected population at large come the winter could have disastrous results when added to the seasonal illness workload.
I would liken it to how you avoid wildfires spreading. If you don't want your town burned down, you deliberately burn a swathe of land surrounding it to create a firebreak. In the case of the coronavirus, the firebreak is the healthy population who are unlikely to be badly affected by catching the virus. Let the well population go down with it with no interference, and you reduce the amount of virus carriers around able to transmit it to the sick population.

 

[DCLane]

I know I believe the majority of the blame for bringing the virus into the UK lies fairly and squarely with the aviation industry. The same lot that are bleating about needing a government bailout to save themselves from the chaos they were largely the cause of!

That's no different to the banks wanting a bail-out in 2008/9 due to poor financial decision-making around sub-prime loans. They got their bail-out and we entered austerity for 10 years.

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

No argument from me. I'm a real capitalist and I don't believe in bailing out incompetent idiots who make irresponsible business decisions. The price of being cretinously stupid should be going bust. bailing innocent savers is different, but the bankers who dished out cash to subprime borrowers at prime interest rates and who repackaged toxic junk into fake investment grade instruments should have done jail time and lost their shirts.

 

[DRM]

Closer to home than that.
https://www.dewsburyreporter.co.uk/...cleckheaton-test-positive-coronavirus-2895808

That’s the place I was referring to, they should be ashamed of themselves.

 

[classic33]

That’s the place I was referring to, they should be ashamed of themselves.

Pushes the numbers up locally.

 

[midlife]

Because vaccines take time to develop, and in the meantime the virus could also mutate into a strain that no-one has tried to develop a vaccine for. It's a massive risk, because still having a large uninfected population at large come the winter could have disastrous results when added to the seasonal illness workload.
I would liken it to how you avoid wildfires spreading. If you don't want your town burned down, you deliberately burn a swathe of land surrounding it to create a firebreak. In the case of the coronavirus, the firebreak is the healthy population who are unlikely to be badly affected by catching the virus. Let the well population go down with it with no interference, and you reduce the amount of virus carriers around able to transmit it to the sick population.

Didn't that Ferguson bloke model that and the death count came to about a quarter of a million?

 

[srw]

Didn't that Ferguson bloke model that and the death count came to about a quarter of a million?

Half a million. An entire year's worth of death. The population of Leicester Which would be even more "world-beating" than the mere 80,000 - 100,000 we're likely to end up with.

 

[rualexander]

"Scotland could be Covid free by end of summer" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53192024

Seems unlikely though, maybe if it was an island.

 

[Slick]

"Scotland could be Covid free by end of summer" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53192024

Seems unlikely though, maybe if it was an island.

That's exactly right, but alas it is very unlikely unless we close the border which is even less unlikely.

 

[Flick of the Elbow]

That's exactly right, but alas it is very unlikely unless we close the border which is even less unlikely.

I wish they would to be honest. Once overnight stays become allowed it’s alarming to think how many holiday makers from areas of still high Covid incidence are going to be freely making their infectious ways through Scotland. All the additional sacrifices that we in Scotland have had to make over these months will have been for nothing.

 

[Slick]

I wish they would to be honest. Once overnight stays become allowed it’s alarming to think how many holiday makers from areas of still high Covid incidence are going to be freely making their infectious ways through Scotland. All the additional sacrifices that we in Scotland have had to make over these months will have been for nothing.

I think it will be criminal if we let this get away from us from this point on but we are not immune from behaviour witnessed elsewhere and I suppose a lot of the same mistakes are likely when restrictions are lifted. It does show that the cautious approach was working though.

 

[marinyork]

"Scotland could be Covid free by end of summer" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53192024

Seems unlikely though, maybe if it was an island.

Another way of reading that is that there is a long long time till the end of summer, so that trend and behaviours leading to it would have to continue for a long time.

 

[Slick]

Another way of reading that is that there is a long long time till the end of summer, so that trend and behaviours leading to it would have to continue for a long time.

Not in Scotland.

 

[Pat "5mph"]

Not in Scotland.

That is exactly what I was going to post after reading Marin's post
In fact, it's quite cold and wet today

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I didn't expect a second wave. I thought we would learn from first time around but it's starting to spook me now.

There seems to be a collective madness gathering, an almost eschatological release.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ld-camping-lake-district-coronavirus-lockdown

My local, quite posh area Facebook group has people defending those urinating in the streets from "takeaway" drinks sales as perfectly entitled. After all, what are they supposed to do when the toilets are shut??

All reason seems to be suspended.