Coronavirus outbreak

[Mo1959]

I'm still Furloughed. It would be most frustrating to go back next week and then be sent home again. Not realistic IMHO.

Agree............and I don't know how much longer peoples patience will last to be honest.

 

[marinyork]

A staff nurse I know said they had had meetings and predict another peak in June, then November. Not sure where they get the data from. I think we will still get a few peaks in the months to come, hopefully nothing like the first though.

Government modelling in late January which was then repeated in feb and march said a nightmare second wave in the winter. It's one of the widely talked about ones.

For the present the number of people with the virus is still high above 100,000 and it takes a month or two to widely circulate.

Flu normally (lots of people said unrealistic to model on flu) has second winter waves.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

We have the highest per capital death toll in the world for any countries with comparable data.

https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

The reason appears very simple: we dithered too long before acting. Even though we had the example of Italy to follow.

Myself and others were saying this before lockdown and ever since. Now the data confirms it.

The death toll in the UK was avoidable and is a scandal. The government should be held to account.

 

[Low Gear Guy]

The spread of Coronavirus will only be stopped by mass vaccination or herd immunity so a second peak seems inevitable.

There is a small possibility of limiting serious infections and deaths by identifying and isolating the most vulnerable. I don't think this is achievable as bending of the lockdown rules has not been limited to the young and healthy.

 

[mjr]

Poland to require masks less from this weekend, also to allow packed shops and gatherings of up to 150 people. https://tribune.net.ph/index.php/2020/05/27/poland-scraps-mandatory-masks-despite-many-infections/

Poland's current prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki is a Nazi-defending former bank chairman and economist from the "Law and Justice" party. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[marinyork]

BBC confirms from Matt Hanock for test and trace that even those who have had cast iron documentation they have the virus recently they have to self isolate for 14 days from last contact.

Immunity doesn't last forever, but serological studies really need pinning down on this for a bit more certainty. This is a complete joke.

For larger workplaces, carehomes and hospitals this is going to be a complete nightmare if the rules are followed with contact tracing slowly belting around large workplaces and people rotated off work permanently or as seen in previous test not cooperating due to the above.

It isn't clear what PPE means in the definitions either.

 

[mjr]

The reason appears very simple: we dithered too long before acting. Even though we had the example of Italy to follow.

And now the dithering continues with Boris's evasion and waffling about track and trace orders to self isolate. It doesn't have a chance IMO without using the powers in the Public Health Act to order people to quarantine, but that in itself is politically impossible without most tests being processed in a day or two, rather than the current four days if you're lucky and never if you're not. Oh and firing Cummings so there's some chance of people respecting government instructions again.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

And now the dithering continues with Boris's evasion and waffling about track and trace orders to self isolate. It doesn't have a chance IMO without using the powers in the Public Health Act to order people to quarantine, but that in itself is impossible without most tests being processed in a day or two, rather than the current four days if you're lucky and never if you're not.

Oh, absolutely. We're now easing lockdown without the necessary test, track and trace, *and* simultaneously have destroyed public trust in the government.

It's a total clusterfùck, and objectively has killed more people than anywhere else in the world despite having more notice than most.

I don't think most people remotely realise just how disastrously our country has handled this.

 

[DCLane]

A staff nurse I know said they had had meetings and predict another peak in June, then November. Not sure where they get the data from. I think we will still get a few peaks in the months to come, hopefully nothing like the first though.

SWMBO's NHS trust is preparing for it. It's basic viral maths predictions:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OLpKqTriio

 

[marinyork]

And now the dithering continues with Boris's evasion and waffling about track and trace orders to self isolate. It doesn't have a chance IMO without using the powers in the Public Health Act to order people to quarantine, but that in itself is politically impossible without most tests being processed in a day or two, rather than the current four days if you're lucky and never if you're not. Oh and firing Cummings so there's some chance of people respecting government instructions again.

The article above, Hunter, refers to scientists who apparently said our track and trace may only stop 15% of cases because we haven't had a system and the amount or the virus in the community is currently too high to necessarily expect a higher figure.

So should have got it up and running a bit sooner before easing restrictions.

 

[Mo1959]

So should have got it up and running a bit sooner before easing restrictions.

We seem to have been too late with everything from day one!

 

[marinyork]

We seem to have been too late with everything from day one!

A tracing system doesn't rely on something that may be very challenging such as a treatment, writing an app or even a safe vaccine that has some partial benefit. So that was why I used should.

 

[marinyork]

200,000 tests a day is a target that is for capacity not actuality. It includes antibody tests lol. Well it means they have to do some antibody tests, but apart from that more headline grabbing backslapping targets. Perhaps on 31st May we'll all have the police knocking on our door demanding an antibody test that takes 2 weeks to come back so Matt can reach his target.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has now replied to a letter from stats referee the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) that was sent to him on 11 May.
The UKSA asked him to clear up the confusion about the government’s target to achieve 200,000 Covid-19 tests per day by the end of May.
Statements in Parliament by Hancock and the prime minister left it unclear whether the target was to conduct those tests each day or have the capacity to do so, and indeed what sort of tests would be counted.
It turns out that the target is for capacity to test, and will include capacity for antibody tests, which are those to find out if people previously had the virus.
It will also include the capacity for tests being sent out to a random cross-section of society by statisticians, as well as those conducted on people actually displaying symptoms.

 

[marinyork]

French study on those with mild symptoms finds there is an antibody response. Level and length of immunity unknown. However, contrary to commentary on the issue by some in the last few months.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...coronavirus-infection-does-lead-to-antibodies

 

[roubaixtuesday]

More expert opinion that we're relaxing too far ahead of the infection rates and test track and trace programme.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ronavirus-infection-rate-too-high-second-wave