Coronavirus outbreak

[matticus]

but surely R will go above 1 - if its approx 0.7 now - after six weeks of lockdown, I would have thought as we relax lockdown infections will go up - at some point pushing r above 1 ? - I thought the question was when not if ?

It's not a definite "when"; there are things holding it down. For one thing, the dreaded H**d I**unity will have some effect.

As I have zero actual numbers to hand I don't intend to debate them here :P But ask yourself this; if R will ALWAYS go back above 1, how can we EVER hope to come out of Lockdown?

 

[kingrollo]

I do. Well not so much the game itself and the terrible clothes - each to their own - but the politics of it. Since the restrictions came in, golf courses have effectively become public parks. They still are in Wales for now. I guess now in England it's back to red-faced people in weird trousers shouting at anyone who deviates an inch from the footpath. Allegedly, the district of Woking is 11% golf course. Shockingly, that's not even the worst thing about Woking.

My bro insists golf is good exercise and points to the number of people who have heart attacks on golf courses as evidence ! - I haven't dared to suggest its probably due to the number of overweight golfers !

 

[kingrollo]

It's not a definite "when"; there are things holding it down. For one thing, the dreaded H**d I**unity will have some effect.

As I have zero actual numbers to hand I don't intend to debate them here :P But ask yourself this; if R will ALWAYS go back above 1, how can we EVER hope to come out of Lockdown?

I don't know !!!!
I suppose thats a precise way of expressing the question I was asking !!!!

My (probably wrong ) feeling is that we know r will at some point go above 1 - but are hoping it doesn't.

 

[vickster]

They can open - but I wouldn't think many will given the guidance from CSP:-

You must engage your patients in discussions regarding the rationale for remote or face-to-face consultations. If both parties deem it necessary to proceed with face-to-face care, the patient should be made aware of all current risks associated with this approach. They must give their consent and you must document these discussions and the outcome.

https://www.csp.org.uk/news/coronav...face-or-remote-consultations/guidance-england

No indeed, I really need a sports massage but that’s not going to happen remotely!
Also due to see the rheumatologist, ditto not a lot of point paying for a phone or video call

 

[kingrollo]

No indeed, I really need a sports massage but that’s not going to happen remotely!
Also due to see the rheumatologist, ditto not a lot of point paying for a phone or video call

Yeah same. Im sure I could find a physio open - but just wouldn't fancy it right now.

 

[vickster]

Yeah same. Im sure I could find a physio open - but just wouldn't fancy it right now.

Mine are doing video consults but I need a good pummelling!

I'd be fine to have a massage if they do open however as they'll certainly be diligent about hygiene

 

[PK99]

^^^ I've so enjoyed walking on my local municipal golf course since lockdown started. Easily the most beautiful part of the part that it is part of. I'm sad to think that it is now out of bounds.

I partly understand what you mean.

 

[lane]

but surely R will go above 1 - if its approx 0.7 now - after six weeks of lockdown, I would have thought as we relax lockdown infections will go up - at some point pushing r above 1 ? - I thought the question was when not if ?

The plan isn't for it to go over 1 but it might do. On the other hand with a hell of a lot of restrictions still in place it might not. The scientists are saying that currently the number of people infected is halving every two weeks because R is below 1.

 

[matticus]

If it's an infection that people generally only get once, the thing MUST die down given enough time.

Herd Immunity will eventually mean that you can kiss 100 random strangers and be at very low risk of catching this thing. Low enough that it's only as dangerous as all the other sh1t that we are exposed to in normal life, like it or not.

 

[mjr]

Maybe instead of having a go read the evidence and thinking behind fabric face covering in helping control the virus.
Then maybe you'd see that the public don't need to have close fitting ones and small gap is better than no mask at all.

Who is this directed at? Are you arguing with the person who posted an image criticising the public for "leaving gaps" between their faces and fabric masks? Who, it looks from https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-5993391 was a person called @tom73 - do we have two people with the same screen name on here?

As for it being anti mask that would be a bit odd as it's from a group coordinating community made PPE.

Then maybe they're the ones that should have read the evidence and thinking behind fabric face covering before putting out confusing shoot?

Honestly, it feels more and more like this is a country of well-meaning idiots.

 

[mjr]

If it's an infection that people generally only get once, the thing MUST die down given enough time.

We don't know that. This has only been around a few months so we don't know how long any immunity lasts. If it's only a few weeks, then it's going to go round and round and round, like the joggers in Blur's park.

 

[matticus]

That would be why I started with "If" then ...

 

[mjr]

That would be why I started with "If" then ...

Indeed, but you've posted twice in quick succession promoting "herd immunity" which we're not even sure is a thing for c19 yet.

 

[alicat]

I partly understand what you mean.

Tee hee! Two many parts to the park that the golf course is in!

 

[matticus]

( @mjr )Well that's a fair point - but it will take us a long time to find that out, I think? And we do need to move forward on SOME basis.

If it IS going to just stay around forever, then we'll just have to deal with that scenario once it becomes clear - I'm not sure that total lockdown until we die out to due to inbreeding is a useful strategy!