Coronavirus outbreak

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Fab Foodie

hanging-on in quiet desperation ...
Location
Kirton, Devon.
 

RecordAceFromNew

Swinging Member
Location
West London
"Scary story"?
Not really, surely it's actually evidence of the mildness of the disease.
If it's been circulating in the population for a number of weeks but has not been recognised as anything more threatening than normal seasonal flu or common cold.

I find it hard to call the disease "mild". To put it in context, IF half of the UK population are infected, a mortality of c1% of the infected half is 330,000 dead, the c5% requiring intensive care represent 1,650,000 souls, and the c20% with serious symptoms are 6.6 millions!

The nhs only has c140,000 beds in total, and few "spare" ones.

While not all infected having serious symptoms makes it harder to spot, I think the reason of failing to recognise it in the US might be due to the lack of testing, a result of being grossly unprepared.

Given thousands were tested in the UK by then, it beggars belief that for the richest nation on earth, only 445 people had been tested in the US as of 25th Feb (about a week ago) - the reason? Test kits were only available in 3 states as of 21st Feb, and even when they were tested, kits were found to be faulty!

Similarly, the Japanese government found it fit to test those on the Diamond Princess in dribs and drabs, and even by the end of the two week quarantine period not all on board were tested, while in the meantime they were all essentially kept in a petri dish, infecting each other happily, resulting in c20% catching it by the end of the two weeks.

Hopefully, some valuable lessons will be learnt from these episodes.
 
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Joey Shabadoo

My pronouns are "He", "Him" and "buggerlugs"
To put it in context, IF half of the UK population are infected, a mortality of c1% of the infected half is 330,000 dead, the c5% requiring intensive care represent 1,650,000 souls, and the c20% with serious symptoms are 6.6 millions!


Similarly, the Japanese government found it fit to test those on the Diamond Princess in dribs and drabs, and even by the end of the two week quarantine period not all on board were tested, while in the meantime they were all essentially kept in a petri dish, infecting each other happily, resulting in c20% catching it by the end of the two weeks.

To get a 20% infection rate on the ship, they were all kept in close confinement together for two weeks (I accept not all were tested). Does it then follow that we can expect 50% of the UK population to be infected?
 

Accy cyclist

Legendary Member
Just listening to the radio phone in on Radio Lancashire,the presenter Alan Beswick is kind of shouting down callers who appear to be concerned about this virus. He keeps spouting stuff about how you've more chance of being struck by lightening,winning the lottery blah blah than dying from the virus. I think as a BBC employee he's been told to say this stuff to try and stop listeners panicking. He's so aggressive in the way he puts 'his' views across. Yes,more chance of winning the lottery etc at the moment,but will he be saying this in a month's time?
 

RecordAceFromNew

Swinging Member
Location
West London
To get a 20% infection rate on the ship, they were all kept in close confinement together for two weeks (I accept not all were tested). Does it then follow that we can expect 50% of the UK population to be infected?

No it doesn't. But a professor of epidemiology at Harvard said roughly 40% to 70% might eventually get it - he said it would only take 100 to 200 people to seed it widely in America. The danger is it can be spread by people without symptom, like the British super-spreader who travelled from Singapore to France.

It is also a catch-22 situation. If we act like people in Hongkong, with schools closed, vast number of people "working" from home, and shoppers deserting the streets, the infection might be controlled, but then numerous businesses will go to the wall, the economy reliant on interconnections between businesses will tank, which will result in the destruction of livelihoods and lives further down the line. I think it is too early to tell how destructive it is going to be.
 
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No it doesn't. But a professor of epidemiology at Harvard said roughly 40% to 70% might eventually get it - he said it would only take 100 to 200 people to seed it widely in America. The danger is it can be spread by people without symptom, like the British super-spreader who travelled from Singapore to France.

It is also a catch-22 situation. If we act like people in Hongkong, with schools closed, vast number of people "working" from home, and shoppers deserting the streets, the infection might be controlled, but then numerous businesses will go to the wall, the economy reliant on interconnections between businesses will tank, which will result in the destruction of livelihoods and lives further down the line. I think it is too early to tell how destructive it is going to be.

Yep - I understand that item 1 on the agenda was Jacob Rees Moggs hedge fund.
 
Story doing the rounds

"An email got sent round all the staff, including clerical, at my missus' NHS Trust today asking for voluteers to do overtime swabbing potential CoVID-19 infectees.
They were paying basic overtime (Everyone said F*** that)
This work needed to be done "initially" out of normal hours, i.e. you still need to do your normal shifts
And here's the kicker, they needed to volunteer quickly as the teams needed to be up and running NEXT WEEK
Also everyone needed to be up to speed quickly on the BioHazard Suits and the swabbing procedure i.e. traing required quickly."
 

MarkF

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
I think that is absolute twaddle and stuff like this only adds to the hysteria.

People would be amazed at what the NHS is prepared for at any given time. I work at one of the biggest & busiest hospitals in the UK & what has happened is that professionals have sprung into action & equipment has arrived, a lot of it.

Jenny from accounts is no more likely to be swabbing patients than a porter or a cleaner.
 
I think that is absolute twaddle and stuff like this only adds to the hysteria.

People would be amazed at what the NHS is prepared for at any given time. I work at one of the biggest & busiest hospitals in the UK & what has happened is that professionals have sprung into action & equipment has arrived, a lot of it.

Jenny from accounts is no more likely to be swabbing patients than a porter or a cleaner.

That email going around a trust is 100% true.
 
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