Coronavirus outbreak

[winjim]

but it wouldn’t have been opened if Richard Horton’s advice had been followed

From his twitter account of 24 January



He has now been down the road to Damascus and it is all “we should have spotted this earlier” stuff. 20-20 hindsight.

I have no particular opinion regarding Richard Horton. Coronavirus was declared an international emergency on 30 January and a pandemic on 11 March, by the WHO. That should have been enough to activate any plan that we had.

 

[tom73]

It's part of the NHS ICS (integrated care systems) initiative. I think it's something they're doing across the board but obviously I only have experience of it from a pathology point of view. Basically they've divided the country up into regions, or 'networks', and adopting a 'hub and spoke' model, with one main 'hub' lab per region doing the bulk of the work, but each hospital maintaining a downsized 'spoke' lab dealing with acute and urgent samples. There's also planned changes to management and staffing structures, which is where I think they're planning to make most of the cost savings.

It's all based on the Carter report, Lord Carter being amongst other things, chair of the board of HSL, provider of private pathology services to the NHS...

https://improvement.nhs.uk/resources/pathology-networks/

The government track record on labs is not great. They tried messing about with the National Forensic laboratory service. Hand the whole lot over to the private sector. A right mess lack of capacity meant sample fridges in custody over flowing. Cases backed up. Then you had cases over turned as samples got contaminated in the labs.
Result the government on the QT had to at great cost put the whole thing back together again.

 

[mjr]

Blimey, Hancock's on Question Time now.

At 8pm. Why are horror shows now allowed on before 9?

 

[Yellow Fang]

This disease is puzzling.

Why did that Oxford University report say we would get herd immunity? They seemed to think the virus had been around for months and lots of people had already had it, and that the unfortunate deaths were a tiny minority. It does not seem like that to me, but Sweden are still betting on the herd immunity theory. Why if a large part of the population had been infected for weeks already would we get this big ramp up of hospital cases in the last couple of weeks?

I read somewhere that the tests did not work until the suffers started showing symptoms, but that asymptomatic carriers could still spread the disease - how? If asymptomatic carriers are not coughing, how are they spreading the disease?

I read that some of the doctors who have died probably died because they were initially infected with a high dose of the virus. So does that mean a small dose could act as a vaccine?

 

[winjim]

The government track record on labs is not great. They tried messing about with the National Forensic laboratory service. Hand the whole lot over to the private sector. A right mess lack of capacity meant sample fridges in custody over flowing. Cases backed up. Then you had cases over turned as samples got contaminated in the labs.
Result the government on the QT had to at great cost put the whole thing back together again.

Yes, I remember that. We went to have a look at their old kit, they had it stored in a warehouse just outside Barnsley. A load of it ended up going to Egypt IIRC. In terms of hospital pathology though, that's pretty easy to privatise, a fair few big hospitals are operating privatised labs. Not sure how they're going to fit in with the ICS scheme, I guess if the privatisation has already provided the cost saving then they might be exempt.

 

[Wobblers]

Another QT guest, the Archbishop of York, asked Hancock why he hadn't done what Kitchener did and get an army logistics officer to get the job done.

"We have," said Hancock. "Brigadier Phil Prosser."

Good answer, the guy's on a roll.

Prosser is quoted in this story which did the rounds a few days ago.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/uknews/11241887/british-soldiers-join-coronavirus-fight/

"On a roll"?

We're supposed to be doing 25,000 tests per day now - the reality is we've scarcely broached the 10,000 per day promised two weeks ago.The 25,000 tests per day are now promised by the end of the month (a date that keeps slipping back - not a good sign).

If this is a roll, it's the sort you see from a parked car with a broken hand brake on a steep hill....

 

[Unkraut]

It's part of the NHS ICS (integrated care systems) initiative. ...

Thanks for the info and link. I don't think anyone would ever be against savings achieved by slimming down management (not that this isn't essential) but I would hope after the current crisis is over they would put the money saved into more capacity rather than leaving it as it is.

 

[lazybloke]

Perhaps he understands the implications better than the average Joe. Who selects the data being shared?

My point was puzzlement that a 'web master' would seemingly decry an internet technology. Without any context it seemed a bit Luddite, or Gerald Ratner-esque.

I do agree with being very cautious before surrendering data-privacy; most of my career has been cyber security and penetration testing, so I'm well aware that v bad things happen when sensitive data falls into the wrong hands.

However, the right data in the right hands can bring benefits both to the individual and the wider community.

 

[lazybloke]

I'm not anti-technology, obviously. I'm just realistic that the temptation to overreach for profit (if commercial) or snooping (if gov't) will probably prove too strong, or there will be a bug like Zoom's that results in unwanted data-sharing without consent. I would also bet that any gov't-backed app won't be verifiable by users because most aren't.

Call it bitter experience if you like. In the past, I've uncovered social enterprises publishing apps with "phone home" leaks and that was good people with strong ethical stances, so what chance this gov't won't do similar things by error or design?

Am well aware of the issues you mention.

Still puzzled though. You're saying the temptation to misuse data will "prove too strong". Hopefully you can avoid that temptation in your work.
Or "there will be a bug" that "results in unwanted data-sharing without consent".
It all sounds like a strong denenoncement of technology to me!


If you were warning about a specific app, then more explanation would be appreciated. There's not much clarity in a staccato list of headlines.
Or provide a link?
Edit: Just seen a link about apps/data in your later post. Do you drive a Delorean?

 

[Salty seadog]

Does anyone know what Matt Hancock said in response to the question at last night's briefing when he was asked under what criteria he was tested for the virus. The coverage faded out then for the six o' clock news.

 

[Adam4868]

Incompetence doesn't even come close.
https://www.irishpost.com/comment/virus-crisis-reveals-prime-ministers-absolute-incompetence-182331

 

[Rocky]

which in itself is fine but referring to a Guardian article which in turn uses the views of the very questionable Richard Horton hardly adds strength to your views

The very questionable......it would be interesting to hear why you think that. Is it the Wakefield paper? Do you know the history of that paper? It caused huge damage but it would be better to blame the scientific review process rather than a single journal editor.

 

[winjim]

which in itself is fine but referring to a Guardian article which in turn uses the views of the very questionable Richard Horton hardly adds strength to your views

You seem to have a bit of an axe to grind when it comes to Horton.

 

[newfhouse]

Incompetence doesn't even come close.
https://www.irishpost.com/comment/virus-crisis-reveals-prime-ministers-absolute-incompetence-182331

I can’t argue with a single word of that.

 

[newfhouse]

However, the right data in the right hands can bring benefits both to the individual and the wider community.

True as far as it goes. It’s for the proponents to provide details of what they consider the right data and, crucially, demonstrate the benefits. It is not good enough to point at the Far East and assume that their situations are comparable.

They then must answer all the other questions about ownership, distribution, anonymisation and retention. Oh, and monetisation, without which the other question is “who pays?”, or rather “what is the cost?”.