Coronavirus outbreak

[Alex321]

You've come fairly close to saying there is.

In what way?

What was it about "the fact none of them carry any legal weight" that you missed?

I know perfectly well they carry no legal weight, and have never tried to suggest they might possibly be a legal card. But that doesn't mean there are no such things as "genuine" and "false" exemption cards.

If you have a genuine reasonable excuse, as listed in the regulations as to why you don't need to wear a mask, then an exemption card stating that is "genuine", whether it carries any legal weight or not.

If you have no such reasonable excuse, then any card saying you do is "false".

IMO, while the card carries no legal weight, and is certainly not necessary, I think it should be an offence to present a false card in order to avoid wearing a mask - a more serious offence than just refusing to wear the mask (which IMO should be enforced with fairly stiff penalties). But I know it isn't, and doubt that will happen.

 

[DaveReading]

There is nothing in the article I posted the link to above which is in disagreement with the legislation, other than that they use the term "exempt" in laymans' terms rather than the strict legal sense.

And nowhere in either the guidance or legislation does it suggest or imply that a piece of paper has any significance whatsoever that would allow it to be described as either "genuine" or "false".

But this is where we came in. I'm done here ...

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

That deep inner howl of despair as it looks like a case of here-we-go-again.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

G-daughter's school (Bexley) has Omicron cases in years 1, 2 and 3. These years have been closed down. As there are over 10 members of staff off with various flavours of covid, and older brothers and sisters, there will be other years affected soon.

 

[Mo1959]

G-daughter's school (Bexley) has Omicron cases in years 1, 2 and 3. These years have been closed down. As there are over 10 members of staff off with various flavours of covid, and older brothers and sisters, there will be other years affected soon.

Might have been a good idea to allow schools to break up early for Christmas?

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Might have been a good idea to allow schools to break up early for Christmas?

Indeed. My daughter's withdrawn the kids from the school until the new year.

 

[Ajax Bay]

This has been in the news - a pre-print of a study released today. I'd observe that the LSHTM models over the last 20 months have been the poorest (in retrospect and compared to the better Imperial and best Warwick ones which in form SAGE) and always seemed, by adopting assumptions or otherwise, to achieve pessimistic (ie higher) estimates - none of which have been remotely reached even in January this year.

"New modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggests the Omicron variant has the potential to cause a wave of transmission in England that could lead to higher levels of cases and hospitalisations than those seen during January 2021."

 

[Johnno260]

This has been in the news - a pre-print of a study released today. I'd observe that the LSHTM models over the last 20 months have been the poorest (in retrospect and compared to the better Imperial and best Warwick ones which in form SAGE) and always seemed, by adopting assumptions or otherwise, to achieve pessimistic (ie higher) estimates - none of which have been remotely reached even in January this year.

"New modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggests the Omicron variant has the potential to cause a wave of transmission in England that could lead to higher levels of cases and hospitalisations than those seen during January 2021."

Time of year and the usual seasonal ailments could compound issues as well.

The backlog the NHS has due to the pandemic and winter is going to be harsh, it’s been relentless for the doctors and nurses, I really do feel for them.

 

[midlife]

Our chief announced some relaxation of how our clinics work at the end of November to increase activity . Back towards business as usual.......

I think omicron perhaps has scuppered that plan.

 

[markemark]

This has been in the news - a pre-print of a study released today. I'd observe that the LSHTM models over the last 20 months have been the poorest (in retrospect and compared to the better Imperial and best Warwick ones which in form SAGE) and always seemed, by adopting assumptions or otherwise, to achieve pessimistic (ie higher) estimates - none of which have been remotely reached even in January this year.

"New modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggests the Omicron variant has the potential to cause a wave of transmission in England that could lead to higher levels of cases and hospitalisations than those seen during January 2021."

This modelling assumes same severity illness as delta which I am hopeful is not the case

 

[Ajax Bay]

This modelling assumes same severity illness as delta which I am hopeful is not the case.

As the pre-print says:
"Due to a lack of data, we assume Omicron has the same severity as Delta. If Omicron
exhibits lower severity than Delta, this would decrease the projected number of severe
outcomes in our model."
Here's hoping.
As James Naismith has observed:
"Data from South Africa are too early to conclude the disease is itself “mild”, the mildness may be explained by existing immunity and the age profile of infections. However, we can be reasonably confident that it is not significantly worse.
". . .long covid, a poorly understood complication is a life changing event in a proportion of all age groups.
[. . . more recent estimates of Rt]"from South Africa appear less awful. The different rate of vaccination in the UK and the control measures in place, mean there should be some caution about definitive statements. There will be a lively cottage industry in both worst and best case scenarios. Compelling cases can be made for both because we know rather little."
Vaccination rates in SA are 34% for 12-50s and 57% for over 50s. In UK figure is 81% heading for high 80s% for 12-100+. Not sure of decent estimates of the proportion of unvaccinated who have some immunity from previous infection in UK or SA. Anyone?

 

[kingrollo]

Is the significance of the booster that you have 3 jabs ? - or that your last jab was quite recent ?

I'm already 2 months post booster - do I still have the 75% protection ?

 

[Bike Tyson]

Is the significance of the booster that you have 3 jabs ? - or that your last jab was quite recent ?

I'm already 2 months post booster - do I still have the 75% protection ?

NHS are offering booster doses 2 months after last vaccine for those most at risk, I think that if the protection was 75% after 2 months this would not be the case.

 

[Slick]

NHS are offering booster doses 2 months after last vaccine for those most at risk, I think that if the protection was 75% after 2 months this would not be the case.

Yeah but that is for individuals with only 2 jabs. The question remains, is it the timing that is critical or the 3rd jab?

I think its the 3rd jab that's critical but means nothing what I think.

 

[Bike Tyson]

Yeah but that is for individuals with only 2 jabs. The question remains, is it the timing that is critical or the 3rd jab?

I think its the 3rd jab that's critical but means nothing what I think.

I suppose it will also depend on the individual, protection percentage will be the population average which is irrelevant to any individual .