Coronavirus outbreak

[mjr]

Looks a bit like being their equivalent of the Euros. All very safe and controlled in principle, but ...

Sports events, music festivals and cheap pubs: three places where people think they can't catch covid, from the looks of photos and many many many reports (and not just telephoto lens pics in gutter press articles).

 

[DaveReading]

Sports events, music festivals and cheap pubs: three places where people think they can't catch covid, from the looks of photos and many many many reports (and not just telephoto lens pics in gutter press articles).

I suspect that many, if not most, of the people who think they can't catch Covid in the situations that you list think that they can't catch it anywhere.

And then there are the ones who don't think, full stop.

 

[Deleted User]

I suspect that many, if not most, of the people who think they can't catch Covid in the situations that you list think that they can't catch it anywhere.

And then there are the ones who don't think, full stop.

Or the one's who have had both jabs and think it's worth taking the risk in order to enjoy themselves?

Some may even think catching it doesn't automatically lead to permanent disablement or Death so not too bothered if they do get it.

Do you lot never get bored of agreeing with each other .

 

[matticus]

Do you lot never get bored of agreeing with each other .

We'll agree with you too ....

 

[lazybloke]

The UK headline rate of detected infections keeps reducing (well, a small rise yesterday, but the graph suggests "peak infection" has clearly passed), - this means R should be below 1.
Yet the beeb are reporting 1.1-1.4 this week (down from 1.2-1.4 last week).
Inconsistent stats; at least one measure must be wrong.

Not sure what to think of that yet. Has there been any more discussion/explanation of the reported sudden drop in infections?

Do you lot never get bored of agreeing with each other .

I disagree that we all agree.

 

[lane]

Or the one's who have had both jabs and think it's worth taking the risk in order to enjoy themselves?

Some may even think catching it doesn't automatically lead to permanent disablement or Death so not too bothered if they do get it.

Do you lot never get bored of agreeing with each other .

I have had both jabs and take more "risk" than I would without it. At one time I thought when I was jabbed that would be the end of it - but it isn't and I still find myself risk assessing things and some things I would not do and other things I do, but am not entirely comfortable with.

On the other hand I must be at much less risk than when I went to work each day un-jabbed.

 

[mjr]

The UK headline rate of detected infections keeps reducing (well, a small rise yesterday, but the graph suggests "peak infection" has clearly passed), - this means R should be below 1.
Yet the beeb are reporting 1.1-1.4 this week (down from 1.2-1.4 last week).
Inconsistent stats; at least one measure must be wrong.

The daily reports went up two days in a row, not only yesterday (23511 on 27th, 27734 on 28th, 31117 on 29th). It's too soon to say whether that's just a reporting quirk because it'll take a few more days to get a complete picture by test date.

I don't think we can conclude that R has fallen below 1 immediately once the weekly case rate is falling. I suspect the models used to estimate R reflect that.

Rather than calling the stats "inconsistent", I feel the measure that must be wrong is your declaration that peak infection has clearly passed! If it was clear, the estimated R would be below 1.

Not sure what to think of that yet. Has there been any more discussion/explanation of the reported sudden drop in infections?

I think the most frequently-suggested explanation of the drop is still the end of the Euro football tournament. There has also been a note of caution that we are only just starting to see the effect of the 19th July surrender.

I disagree that we all agree.

I agree with that!

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

The daily reports went up two days in a row, not only yesterday (23511 on 27th, 27734 on 28th, 31117 on 29th). It's too soon to say whether that's just a reporting quirk because it'll take a few more days to get a complete picture by test date.

I don't think we can conclude that R has fallen below 1 immediately once the weekly case rate is falling. I suspect the models used to estimate R reflect that.

Rather than calling the stats "inconsistent", I feel the measure that must be wrong is your declaration that peak infection has clearly passed! If it was clear, the estimated R would be below 1.


I think the most frequently-suggested explanation of the drop is still the end of the Euro football tournament. There has also been a note of caution that we are only just starting to see the effect of the 19th July surrender.


I agree with that!

The first 8 minutes of the weekly Zoe update are talked about in some detail. Zoe shows a roughly flat incidence of 60,000 (so an R of approximately 1) as opposed to the government's sharply falling figures.

One possible reason is that people are evading diagnosis - fear of being pinged and told to self isolate when people want to go on holiday or to festivals, etc.

Another is that schools had a cycle of testing and diagnosis which affected whole bubbles of kids, teachers and families and generated substantial numbers of positive tests. Now that summer holidays are here, that cycle has been broken and the number of tests has declined.

A third, discussed further on in the Zoe update, is that the government still has not updated the symptom list to match the delta variant. People think that they have flu or summer colds and do not get diagnosed as having covid.

 

[markemark]

…and that the ONS data covers the period of 2 weeks ago to 1 week ago, roughly when the published covid cases only started to drop. I suspect next weeks ONS data, which covers the week we’re now in, will show a drop.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

…and that the ONS data covers the period of 2 weeks ago to 1 week ago, roughly when the published covid cases only started to drop. I suspect next weeks ONS data, which covers the week we’re now in, will show a drop.

The question isn't so much whether they show a drop but why are they showing such a drop - 30% over 2 weeks. And, indirectly, whether the government figures reflect the real world.

 

[Milzy]

I know an obese guy get it. I thought this dude will be in hospital for a long time. He only had a week off work & is fine. I know an old obese guy positive. It took him 3 weeks to recover.
I know a young guy who it took ages to properly recover.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Oh, I forgot to mention about the Zoe report above. They conducted a survey on the NHS Covid app. 700,000 respondents. Of those who downloaded the app - I can't remember the figure but it may have been 500,000 - 22% said that they had disabled/uninstalled it. That's a lot of people evading the ping.

 

[mjr]

Oh, I forgot to mention about the Zoe report above. They conducted a survey on the NHS Covid app. 700,000 respondents. Of those who downloaded the app - I can't remember the figure but it may have been 500,000 - 22% said that they had disabled/uninstalled it. That's a lot of people evading the ping.

Disabled and uninstalled are very different things. People are told to disable it in various situations, such as medics at work or train drivers in cabs.

And that's if you think the pinger's guideline-ignoring proximity formula is realistic anyway.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Disabled and uninstalled are very different things. People are told to disable it in various situations, such as medics at work or train drivers in cabs.

And that's if you think the pinger's guideline-ignoring proximity formula is realistic anyway.

The word used in the report was uninstalled but I added disabled because I suspect people who had permanently disabled the app were included in the figure.

 

[silva]

On 20 juli 53.9% had received second injection.
Infections started to rise exponential from 450 to 700 per M.
That near-linear vaccination trend just continued.
And now, at 55.6% second injection, that explosive infection trend has converted to an even steeper drop.
A mere 1.7% extra vaccinated -it doesn't look like that vaccination trend had any effect on infection trend.
Conclusion is that vaccination trend didn't effect infection trend.
Likely, the antibody levels of the first vaccinated already waned from sterile down to again infectable.
And later on, again more sick, upto the point where the story started with.
Fresh cannon fodder available for the virus.
Governments hunting total lockdown 2, production stops, panicking people, dumped stocks, next crisis.
See, that's what they do since ages: creating boom and bust cycles. Panicking suchas willing to sell cheapskate to them, after euphorically purchasing high from them. Rinse and repeat.
I think that's all there is to say, about this pandemic.

Future will tell !