matticus
Guru
Have you told her all the trouble she's caused since??
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Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Happy to take my turn into the wind, provide the quid pro quo is the opportunity for sucking wheels the rest of the time.
Yes: the inmates will 'cry havoc and let slip the shackles of peace'; oh, and bring t'walls down, from within.
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mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Only an English not living near a border would write that.
Yes but she has eluded to maybe bringing forward some changes ?! However we shall see what is said tomorrow.
vickster
Legendary Member
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Good old autocorrect!
IaninSheffield
Veteran
- Location
- Sheffield, UK
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Here is the SPI-M-O paper (7 Feb) which modelled easing NPI restrictions in stages. It combines the ICL and Warwick work and will have been foundation for deliberations and UK Government decisions shared on 22 Feb.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...lling_on_scenario_for_easing_restrictions.pdf
* All four scenarios modelled lead to a substantial resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths later this year.
*The scale and timing of these resurgences are critically dependent on very uncertain modelled assumptions, including real world vaccine effectiveness against severe disease and infection; vaccine coverage and rollout speed; behavioural factors; and the extent to which baseline measures (which could be voluntary) continue to reduce transmission once restrictions are lifted. Given this uncertainty, it would be inadvisable to tie changes in policy to dates instead of data.
* As restrictions are relaxed virus transmission will increase. The more slowly restrictions are relaxed, the greater the number of hospitalisations and deaths prevented by vaccination and hence it would be less likely that restrictions would need to be reimposed.
* A significant proportion of adults will remain who are not directly protected by vaccination.
e.g.: Proportion of adults directly protected against severe disease = 85% (assumes 15% not vaccinated (unable or unwilling)
Vaccine efficacy against severe disease x 79% (average of Pfizer and Oxford-AZ).
So final coverage = 67%
But only around 79% of the population are adults (53M over 18), which means population level protection is lower, at 53%. In addition, protection against infection is likely to be lower than that against disease. As a result, herd immunity is not reached without a large resurgence of transmission.
Comment: This relies on the unvaccinated catching it in numbers and developing antibodies.
Comment: If trials show vaccine can be used on under 16s then herd immunity becomes more achievable - once that cohort (12+M) is vaccinated.
Note: Modelling doesn't try to take account of seasonal effects (beneficial effect), any waning immunity (detrimental affect), or the adverse effect of any VoC that emerge in significant amounts in UK. There is emerging evidence (so less uncertainty) about vaccine effectiveness against serious disease (hospitalisation) and against transmission.
The paper perforce makes loads of assumptions and plenty of sensitivity analysis. But I'll paste one graph - the current England plan is slightly more prudent than the blue line in the graph below. And hospital occupancy is currently (8 Mar) about 80% of the black line (ie better than the model assumes). And summer's coming.
Assumes baseline (after all easing) measures reduce transmission to equivalent of (old) Tier 1. Assumes 4m doses per week from 22 Mar and uptake of 95% (over 80s), 85% (others). From the Warwick model.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...lling_on_scenario_for_easing_restrictions.pdf
* All four scenarios modelled lead to a substantial resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths later this year.
*The scale and timing of these resurgences are critically dependent on very uncertain modelled assumptions, including real world vaccine effectiveness against severe disease and infection; vaccine coverage and rollout speed; behavioural factors; and the extent to which baseline measures (which could be voluntary) continue to reduce transmission once restrictions are lifted. Given this uncertainty, it would be inadvisable to tie changes in policy to dates instead of data.
* As restrictions are relaxed virus transmission will increase. The more slowly restrictions are relaxed, the greater the number of hospitalisations and deaths prevented by vaccination and hence it would be less likely that restrictions would need to be reimposed.
* A significant proportion of adults will remain who are not directly protected by vaccination.
e.g.: Proportion of adults directly protected against severe disease = 85% (assumes 15% not vaccinated (unable or unwilling)
Vaccine efficacy against severe disease x 79% (average of Pfizer and Oxford-AZ).
So final coverage = 67%
But only around 79% of the population are adults (53M over 18), which means population level protection is lower, at 53%. In addition, protection against infection is likely to be lower than that against disease. As a result, herd immunity is not reached without a large resurgence of transmission.
Comment: This relies on the unvaccinated catching it in numbers and developing antibodies.
Comment: If trials show vaccine can be used on under 16s then herd immunity becomes more achievable - once that cohort (12+M) is vaccinated.
Note: Modelling doesn't try to take account of seasonal effects (beneficial effect), any waning immunity (detrimental affect), or the adverse effect of any VoC that emerge in significant amounts in UK. There is emerging evidence (so less uncertainty) about vaccine effectiveness against serious disease (hospitalisation) and against transmission.
The paper perforce makes loads of assumptions and plenty of sensitivity analysis. But I'll paste one graph - the current England plan is slightly more prudent than the blue line in the graph below. And hospital occupancy is currently (8 Mar) about 80% of the black line (ie better than the model assumes). And summer's coming.
Assumes baseline (after all easing) measures reduce transmission to equivalent of (old) Tier 1. Assumes 4m doses per week from 22 Mar and uptake of 95% (over 80s), 85% (others). From the Warwick model.
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Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
More cautious? Steady as she/we go.
Scotland will return to a tiered system from the last week in April; the 'framework' would be staggered at three week intervals - two weeks faster than in England.
FM told MSPs the five-level system should see the entire country enter Level 4 and drop down to Level 3, which would see sectors such as non-essential retail reopen from Apr 26. The stay at home restriction will be lifted from Apr 5.
"It is therefore from the last week of April that we would expect to see phased but significant reopening of the economy, including non-essential retail, hospitality and services like gyms and hairdressers."
Care home restrictions will be eased and from Mar 15, the next phase of school returns - including primary and some secondary students - will begin. Outdoor mixing will also increase to four people from two households.
Communal worship can also resume, maybe for Passover.
FM said she will "seek to accelerate" changes where possible. She added that she was "optimistic" about restoring "more normality" to people's lives in the coming months.
Chromatic
Legendary Member
- Location
- Gloucestershire
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
I was worrying about that last night. Last posted in early Feb.
And @kingrollo has stopped(?) contributing since 25 Feb.
Maybe both are taking a breather from their NHS duties now cases are a tenth of their ghastly peak (?6 Jan) and hospital (with C19) numbers are down from 38,428 (19 Jan) to less than 10,000.
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