Good afternoon
You don't think that the main problem is the lug giving way due to poor construction. That would increase pressure on the gear boss area. There isn't much sign of rust there so possibly that was not the original cause of the problem. The lug on the seat tube looks more likely to be the first to give way.
Initially definitely not as I kept staring at the down tube as I carried the bits home. But I have looked at the top tube and the lug again and the lug is a quite sparse and pretty design and it wouldn't as I first thought hold the top tube in place without a solid braze. However the tope tube is very twisted and squashed around the lug area whereas the downtube has a clean break for around 300 degrees and then a twist and tear.
I can also see on a closer inspection but the photos don't show, that the top tube is slightly bent downwards, highest at the seat top and lowest at the head tube, but it is only a few mm.
There is also a small piece of top tube still brazed in place, very roughly an equilateral triangle of about 1cm so this could have caused quite a twist.
I suspect that it would need someone with more knowledge than me and possibly a bit of Finite Element Analysis to work out which came first :-)
And that's in a material where catastrophic failures are very rare, especially sudden unexpected ones. I would still trust steel over aluminium, and especially over carbon fibre, every day of the week.
Sadly all it leaves me is my CF one and there is no way that I am going to leave that outside an office or supermarket.... and the swinging shopping bags would probably keep changing the gears anyway. :-)
I have a great deal of reluctance to pay the shortage premium and cough up £1,200 for something with Sora/Claris or go down the dead end and get one of the many 7 speed machines on the market and in stock.
But the
https://www.evanscycles.com/brand/pinnacle/laterite-3-2021-road-bike-934352 does seem to be available and might not be nicked immediately. :-) Although I have no idea who specced the gears, 11-32 on a 50/34 and even if the wheels aren't great I can just swap them over I think along with the chainset.
I have been playing with gear ratios a lot recently and can't find any use for anything lower than 34x19,38x21 or 42x23 which are all pretty much the same gear, the only good thing about 34x19 is that it is a almost straight chain-line.
@IanSmithCSE what make of bike was it?
I uhmmed a bit before mentioning the name, it was a
Ribble from the era of these 531 stickers
and as has been pointed out hasn't be mollycodelled but I have only ever ridden in on road and the broken areas aren't rusted.
I am happy to see the breakage as simple old age, I just got comfortable with it and hadn't paid enough attention to the fact that these frames were made as racing frames and maybe they should be considered as having a working life.
....The heavy bags of shopping would have loaded them in a way they shouldn't have been.
I am not convinced by this as the downward loads on the handle bars when riding out of saddle and leaning heavily forward are going to be greater than the almost static load of any "luggage".
This looks cool 3x7, shifters on the stem/bars and all for £329, and a steel frame.
Bye
Ian