I'm with
@PaulSB on this. With a well maintained bike, there is little point in carrying a load of tools around most of the time as failures are very rare in my experience.
Out for a ride on a road bike or commuting to work, I only carry this:
plus a VAR tyre lever. I fits neatly into a back pocket - no need for a saddle bag.
No pump, no multitool and no chaintool - I just can't imagine needing them often enough, or indeed, ever.
I've just had a look on Strava for the bikes I record the mileage on and carrying only the above, I've needed a lift once in 11,000 miles on one bike (something wrong with my ankle!) and once in 3,500 miles on another (snapped spoke on a low spoke count wheel).
If I was going to take anything else, I'd take a drive side rear spoke, a couple of allen keys and a spoke key so that I'd be able to get the cassette off and change a spoke.
I must admit though, when touring I take the lot - cables, chain tool, spare bolts, kitchen sink etc., as getting a lift would be that much more inconvenient.