235 miles a day for a year (Amanda Coker Challenge)

[Dogtrousers]

The average daily mileage line does indeed look like that. But if you look at the actual progress he's been making over the months you get a different picture, something like this:

That's heavily stylized, of course, highlighting only the most conspicuous trends. If the 195 mpd he's been steady at for a while now is sustainable to the end, then there must be grounds for optimism because as far as I can recall everyone who's completed a challenge of this sort has been able to produce a marked surge as the finish line has come into sight.

One interpretation for the sequence of events is that Steve found the 220mpd rate with 15 hour daysOK to start with but from about day 130 it became increasingly hard to sustain. Just before day 200 he was putting in extremely long days, seemingly sleeping on the road, and this was followed by a loss in form and a health crisis (the two missed days 196 and 197) Maybe it caused it, maybe it was coincidental. From then to about day 220 he seemed to be regrouping and recovering, and since about day 220 he's reset with more like 14 hour days and a 195 mpd rate, which it appears he is gradually increasing.

That's one way of reading it anyway.

 

[Dogtrousers]

Steve's first 200+ mpd week for a month.

Steve's stats as at 29 Oct 17
Days: 240 (65.8% of year)
Dist: 80,690 km / 50,138 mi
Avg daily dist: 336.2 km / 208.9 mi
Avg daily elevation (Strava): 1,309 m / 4,295 ft
Moving speed (Strava): 25.7 km/h / 16.0 mi/h
Hours per day riding: 15.3
Projected total at current daily rate: 122,716 km / 76,252 mi
Rate over last 7 days: 332 km / 206 mi per day

 

[ianrauk]

Nice to see an upswing on the Kurt line chart. Small as it is.

 

[uphillstruggler]

what ever happens, this guy is a machine. riding through some of the weather we've had and with illnesses is an amazing feat.

I wish him all the best from a fellow Milton Keynes dweller.

 

[Dogtrousers]

It's worth noting that Steve has just passed 50,000 miles on day 240 (yesterday)

Someone on Strava said that Kurt passed 50,000 on day 241, and I've no reason to doubt them.

 

[Dogtrousers]

View: https://twitter.com/steve_abraham74/status/925270752164708352


He still managed 188 miles

 

[Dogtrousers]

View: https://twitter.com/steve_abraham74/status/926079370317443073

 

[Dogtrousers]

A 207mpd week. That's the first time since the mid July that he's put in two consecutive Godwin+ calendar weeks.

He seems to be settling into a 14 hour per day schedule.

Steve's stats as at 05 Nov 17
Days: 247 (67.7% of year)
Dist: 83,019 km / 51,586 mi
Avg daily dist: 336.1 km / 208.8 mi
Avg daily elevation (Strava): 1,299 m / 4,263 ft
Moving speed (Strava): 25.7 km/h / 16.0 mi/h
Hours per day riding: 15.3
Projected total at current daily rate: 122,680 km / 76,230 mi
Rate over last 7 days: 333 km / 207 mi per day

 

[Dogtrousers]

Here's what I meant about a 14 hour day. The following graph shows how long his daily Strava tracks last.

You can see that he started out doing regular 15 hour days (actually a bit less), but he's settled down to 14 hour days lately.

The big bulges occur when Steve has uploaded 20+ hour tracks. That doesn't necessarily mean he was out for that long (although he may have been), he may have kipped on the road, or other reasons. There can be various reasons for the bulges, but when the line is relatively level it indicates a more regular go out/ride/go home pattern.

 

[Dogtrousers]

A 198mpd week, leaving Steve just 0.2 mpd ahead of Kurt.

Steve's stats as at 12 Nov 17
Days: 254 (69.6% of year)
Dist: 85,249 km / 52,971 mi
Avg daily dist: 335.6 km / 208.5 mi
Avg daily elevation (Strava): 1,292 m / 4,239 ft
Moving speed (Strava): 25.8 km/h / 16.0 mi/h
Hours per day riding: 15.2
Projected total at current daily rate: 122,503 km / 76,120 mi
Rate over last 7 days: 318.5 km / 197.9 mi per day

 

[ianrauk]

Not good seeing that downward trend. What with tougher, colder, windier, wetter weather ahead it's not looking good for Steve to beat Searvogels total. I hope I'm wrong and he does manage to pull out some longer rides.

 

[Dogtrousers]

Not good seeing that downward trend. What with tougher, colder, windier, wetter weather ahead it's not looking good for Steve to beat Searvogels total. I hope I'm wrong and he does manage to pull out some longer rides.

At the moment he's mainly consistent on about 200-210 mpd, on 14 hours riding, but also consistently drops in one or more shorter rides per week (if that makes sense). He started out on about 220mpd off about an hour more riding time. I can only assume he's reduced the time because it was proving hard to maintain the 15(ish) hour days over the long term, leading to a bit of a crisis mid-year.

As @Aravis said earlier many long attempts put on a surge towards the end. The problem is, that his final two months will be January and February when conditions may not be suitable.

Anyway, records aside, it's an amazing feat.

 

[Aravis]

I've updated my moving average graph. My figures show exactly the same total mileage as @Dogtrousers so I'm hopeful of being accurate:

This shows a much more cheery looking upward trend over recent weeks. One positive headline is that his two weekly moving average just made it above the Searvogel line yesterday, for the first time in well over two months.

It looks to me as though he's going to try and sit on Kurt's wheel for the rest of the attempt, and ease past at the end. Looking from the outside that certainly doesn't seem impossible, but the comparatively unproductive September and October (when I'm sure he hoped to be at his best) have made it a lot harder. You can't escape from the fact that he has to do 209 mpd through the four darkest and coldest months.

 

[MacB]

Worth remembering that Kurt was considerably faster and so less time on bike and more rest.

 

[Aravis]

I tried a back-of-an-envelope projection and just at the moment it's coming out quite neatly. If Steve can average 200 mpd until day 335 (February 1st), then he'd need to average 230 mpd over the remaining 30 days to hit 76076 almost on the nose.

He's been maintaining 200+ through most of October and the first part of November. February can be quite decent, and he'd have absolutely nothing to lose by that time.

It's a tall order, but he's hanging in there. Always assuming that the Searvogel figure is what he's really aiming at, of course.

The other day I glanced down at the mileometer on my car (which I seem to have had for ages) and briefly saw the number 76076. It's a long way.