2014 predictions

[The Couch]

and froome still wouldn't have won the tour in 2012 cause wiggo destroyed them all in the time trial............

Wasn't necessarily saying Froome would have won it, but he did make it quite clear that uphill he was stronger

still think porte would be a good bet, if the team behind him, is as good as the team was behind froome and wiggins

The team behind Wiggo was superstrong...
the team behind Froome... not so very strong in my small opinion: more than once he was too isolated way too early (like on the 3rd or 2nd last climb) with only about 2 or 3 guys. I believe he actually had to ride that 1 stage about 75% alone, since all of his team were dropped.

As @Hont correctly points out ... the double is superthough nowadays. Of course he could loose (for whatever reason) too much time in the first week of the Giro and not go 100% in the Giro, but then still I would put a Porte in top-form and as a team-leader in the top 10, but I can't see him beating either Froome (in an imaginary other team) or Nibali across a 3-week race. He hasn't shown a great result yet in those 3-week races and has to do so before I put him even ahead of people like JVDB and Mollema. (Considering that they would also be in top-form and avoiding falls)

As regards to Cav - he has every chance - the train is complete & only Kittel/Shimano stand in his way - he does need those intermediate sprint points though that have served Sagan so well.

Actually Sagan takes most points away in (an) intermediate mountain stage(s), where he has his team ride so hard that all pure sprinters fall off. If he ends 1st (or even 2nd) he takes so many points with the other sprinters not taking anything. That is what makes him the favourite for Green (and not necessarily Kittel, who might be the biggest threat at the finish-line for Cav)

I do not profess to be any kind of expert

Have you seen the predictions/statements all of us make here... no one is an expert here that knows how anything is going to happen before it does

 

[rich p]

I don't disagree with much of what you say @The Couch apart from the JVDB reference

 

[DooDah]

the team behind Froome... not so very strong in my small opinion: more than once he was too isolated way too early (like on the 3rd or 2nd last climb) with only about 2 or 3 guys. I believe he actually had to ride that 1 stage about 75% alone, since all of his team were dropped.

I am not so sure that the team behind Froome was weaker, I think it was more a case of other teams being stronger and more aware of Sky than in 2012.

 

[The Couch]

I don't disagree ... apart from the JVDB reference

To defend myself (or - more likely - digging myself deeper in the patriotic hole), the TdF is really the only race that he focuses his whole season on. And let me tell you, when Sporza does an interview with him during his winter training in Spain, it's clear he is focused and training for it like a maniac. Furthermore he did have 2 top 5 finishes in the last 4 TdF and the other 2 being races where he crashed out. If he has avoided crashing before the TdF this year, I'd put him in a TdF fantasy team (also because he should be pretty cheap, since he can't really seem to win any race )

Granted, I could have gone for Rodriguez, Valverde or Contador as examples who I would put higher on the 3-week races list, but since none of them have really confirmed a 2014 TdF participation yet (although Contador is probably a shoo-in), I elected not to go for these (more obvious examples)

... and hey... I had to (try to) throw a Belgian in there

 

[The Couch]

I am not so sure that the team behind Froome was weaker, I think it was more a case of other teams being stronger and more aware of Sky than in 2012.

In 2012, Hagen, Porte and Rogers (and of course Froome) were scary strong. Hagen was supposed to be used for the the beginning of stages, but he was so strong I believe at one point he was still pulling the peloton of about 25-ish riders left, with Rogers, Porte and Froome still behind him.
Porte was (with of course Froome still in the waiting room) sometimes still pulling the peloton with about 10 riders left.
I never saw that kind of display in 2013.

But anyway, whether the other teams interfered with the Sky train or Froome didn't really need a superstrong team... doesn't really matter...
Froome won and the only real threat that I would dare to guess is that Nibali (with the not-to-be-underestimated strength of his Astana team backing him) could take it from him

 

[jowwy]

if sky put in a team of - froome, porte, kennaugh, hagen, kiryanka, thomas, eisel, nieve, henao - you could also look at stannard, wiggins, sitsou, knees to also push for tdf places

then i can only see one winner of the TDF

 

[VamP]

Nibali?

 

[SteCenturion]

Nibali?

Nibali?

Nicholas Roche

 

[jowwy]

Nibali?

froome

 

[tigger]

OK, watch this space, you heard it all here first... Remember I was joint winner last year with Hont ... With a grand total of...wait for it... one correct prediction!

Classics:

Milan-San Remo : Sagan
Paris-Roubaix : Van Avermaet
Flanders: Cancellara
Amstel Gold : Valverde
Strade Bianchi (best race of the year so it's a classic!) : Sagan

Grand Tours:

Giro : Quintana
Tour : Nibali
Vuelta : Rodriquez finally!

As per Thom, here's to 2 years of a classic three way fight for the worlds TT and the hour

 

[thom]

To come back to the Wiggo & Paris-Roubaix notion, here's an interesting article on the notion.

"This subject is broached in the February 2014 edition of Cycle Sport magazine. It is confirmed that Paris-Roubaix is ‘on the radar’ for Wiggins and Team Sky. There are also the thoughts of directeurs sportif from all of Wiggins’ previous teams on whether he stands a chance against the seasoned cobbled competitors like Cancellara and Tom Boonen.

The responses vary from FDJ’s Marc Madiot, who says ‘yes… he can be a contender’, to Eric Boyer of Cofidis, who says ‘no, he can’t', to more pragmatic answers from Jonathan Vaughters, Brian Holm and Roger Legeay who all think he could be good, but a win would be unlikely."

 

[tigger]

Wiggins went well on the cobbles in the 2009 Tour if I remember and it's another one of his romantic dreams to win this. Not sure if he's got enough bulk to absorb the bumps personally...

 

[tigger]

Just looking at that picture in your link Thom, looks like he has bulked up quite a bit! Wouldn't see a tough Belgium training with that rear fender though!

 

[Hont]

Good news for all of us predicting a Quintana Giro win. He's definitely riding it...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/movistar-confirms-quintana-for-giro-and-valverde-for-tour

I always find that riders have a much better chance of winning a race if they at least start it.

 

[The Couch]

Good news for all of us predicting a Quintana Giro win. He's definitely riding it...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/movistar-confirms-quintana-for-giro-and-valverde-for-tour

I always find that riders have a much better chance of winning a race if they at least start it.

And seeing he has already notched the first race of his season, it's looking even better (for all of you)