I don't think we're anywhere near being able to figure out the future of travel and tourism at the moment.
Never mind the fact that the global economy is crashing on a scale we don't fully comprehend yet, the effects are going to be wide and very, very varied.
Just taking camping as an example. I can see campgrounds going out of business in the short and long-term.
If campgrounds have to limit occupancy or expand facilities to satisfy social distancing costs will go up and access may be limited - regulars only, advance reservations only, market segmentation at the expense of the lower revenue segments.
Whereas stealth/wild camping may have been tolerated before it may not be in the future, especially without vaccinations.
Even a trip to a village pub or restaurant may not be an option for visitors, unless for take away. If I've a restaurant that used to hold 50 people but now can only hold 20 and I have a choice to make between serving Mr & Mrs Regular Local or Mr. & Mrs. Tourist I know who I'll be serving.
Even the idea of a "staycation" assumes that people have the money to spend on one and can be satisfied by what is on offer - which may be a very different "product" to what was on offer a year ago.
Take that example and apply it to an industry as wide and varied as travel and tourism and it is impossible to predict what will happen.
Forgetting about tourism for a moment and considering non-recreational travel for a moment….. Lots of industry, especially agriculture, depend on "importing" labour at certain times of the year. That may not be possible, or when possible, will likely be a lot costlier in the future. That has an impact on the "home" places of the workers as well as the food supply in the "host" country.
I'm currently in Mexico in a small town. The majority of men of working age work in the US for months at a time. If they can't travel to work there is no work here for them. In that scenario the future of this town is devastating. The impact of this type of situation will be replicated in many countries in this part of the world resulting in much instability and God knows what consequences down the line.
I'm of the opinion that this is a great, once in a lifetime opportunity for the world to rebalance itself, I just hope we can take it.