Would you class a 40% drop in cycling collisions as a good result ?

[very-near]

I would

It is a shame that the London Cycling Campaign (LCC) don't see it that way

Lifted from the Motorcycle News Website:-

Cycle group's silence over bus lane evidence
By Steve Farrell - General news 15 December 2009 09:26
Its purpose is to represent cyclists’ interests. So you might expect the London Cycling Campaign (LCC) would be quick to tell the pedal-powered fraternity that a pioneering trial has seen their collisions with other road users fall 40%.

But not, apparently, when the other road users are motorcyclists and the trial is of sharing London’s bus lanes with us.

Weeks after the drop in collisions was revealed in a study of the trial’s first four months, LCC had yet to mention it on its website.

Since the day the trial began on January 5, the website has appealed for complaints about it in a campaign called Bus Lane Watch. It asks cyclists to ‘register objections’ and ‘report incidents,’ and tells them: ‘Have your voice heard’ by filling in an online survey by Transport for London (TfL), the capital’s transport authority.

But the failure to mention the study – also by TfL and the first real evidence of the success or failure of the trial – seems to indicate LCC is not watching too closely after all. Without it, any views expressed are likely to be uninformed.

More than two weeks after the report was released, LCC’s latest comment on the subject cited a cyclist’s fatal collision with a motorcyclist in October, claiming: ‘Even though this fatality didn't take place in a bus lane, it shows how vulnerable cyclists can be.’

LCC’s communications director, Mike Cavenett, refused to enter into dialogue when we telephoned – as he has done all year.

In an email the group pointed to a passage in TfL’s study which says the period covered is too short to draw conclusions. The statement added: ‘LCC agrees with TfL when it says in the report that drawing conclusions from the data at this stage is not possible.’

Following our enquiry – and after we posted a link to the report on LCC’s Facebook page - the group finally put the report on its site, linked to a story headlined: ‘TfL says motorbikes in bus lanes report allows "no meaningful comparison".’ But the story made no mention of the fact collisions have fallen.

Asked why it had taken so long, Cavenett emailed: 'News stories often take a while to appear on the LCC website because we are a small charity not a multi-million pound publisher.' The group's income is £1.01 million according to the Charity Commission. LCC's website says it's the 'largest urban cycling organisation in the world'. The group’s Facebook page says it’s the ‘largest environmental advocacy group in the capital’.

The TfL report compares collisions during the first four months of the trial to the same period the previous year and shows those between cyclists and motorcyclists fell from five to three.

We revealed last week how national cycling group CTC was shown a draft of the report and asked for comments weeks before motorcycle groups were allowed to see it. TfL blamed “administrative error”.
Source

Given the trial has been running for nearly a year now it is looking very favourable, this is obviously very good news for both cyclists and motorcyclists in the capital

Many other towns and Cities will look to the trial to set their own standards, so I'll be very happy to see bus lane use by motorcycles adopted in my town whether I am riding the cycle or m/cycle.

 

[mangaman]

Linf - this study was a leaked interim reort looking at 4 months of an 18 month trial

Exact quote

"The number of collisions for all modes within the trial areas during operating hours did not have a statistically significant difference in the before and after period (369 in the 2008 ‘before’ period and 374 in the 2009 ‘after’ period).
Casualties between motorcycles and pedestrians have stayed the same (at 16 before and after), while those between motorcycles and pedal cycles have reduced (from 5 to 3). Casualties for motorcyclists have increased (from 93 to 118), however, the data on vehicle usage required to calculate casualty/collision rates is not yet available. The rates will help provide a meaningful context for the data.
Furthermore, the current data is subject to a number of limitations: the data set covers a short time period which means that it cannot be considered conclusive, therefore, no meaningful comparison to previous years’ data can be made; it is also not possible to assess whether the collisions occurred in the bus lane or the main carriage way."

In other words there was no statistical significance

The time frame was so short they feel no meaningful comparisons can be made

Your 40% drop in cycling casualties is from 5 to 3.

So I think this shows more about the credulousness of motorcyclenews than anything else

 

[John the Monkey]

People don't understand statistics.

Journalists in particular seem to have a blind spot for this area of mathematics, regardless of the publication they work for, as coverage of any science story proves time and again.

 

[very-near]

Linf - this study was a leaked interim reort looking at 4 months of an 18 month trial

Exact quote

"The number of collisions for all modes within the trial areas during operating hours did not have a statistically significant difference in the before and after period (369 in the 2008 ‘before’ period and 374 in the 2009 ‘after’ period).
Casualties between motorcycles and pedestrians have stayed the same (at 16 before and after), while those between motorcycles and pedal cycles have reduced (from 5 to 3). Casualties for motorcyclists have increased (from 93 to 118), however, the data on vehicle usage required to calculate casualty/collision rates is not yet available. The rates will help provide a meaningful context for the data.
Furthermore, the current data is subject to a number of limitations: the data set covers a short time period which means that it cannot be considered conclusive, therefore, no meaningful comparison to previous years’ data can be made; it is also not possible to assess whether the collisions occurred in the bus lane or the main carriage way."

In other words there was no statistical significance

The time frame was so short they feel no meaningful comparisons can be made

Your 40% drop in cycling casualties is from 5 to 3.

So I think this shows more about the credulousness of motorcyclenews than anything else

What about this ?

It IMO shows a deliberate attempt by the LCC to sabotage the trial through irrational and unfounded fear. This was 10 months into the trial

Cycling group: ‘We know of no crashes but still want motorcycles out of bus lanes’
By Steve Farrell - General news 30 September 2009 11:50
A cycling group demanding motorcycles be booted out of London’s bus lanes is not aware of a single crash to back up its call.

Challenged to cite a single collision between a motorcyclist and cyclist in a trial of the two sharing bus lanes which began in January, the London Cycling Campaign failed.

Instead it said: ‘LCC does not have access to police data on collisions in bus lanes which we trust will be published in due course.

'We hope that there will be no additional injuries to any road user as a result of the 18-month trial and we welcome motorcyclists following the bus lane code of conduct distributed by motorcycling organisations.

'LCC remains concerned at reports of near-misses of cycle users by motorcycles and inconsiderate motorcycling.

'Many cycle users consider bus lanes a refuge from fast traffic and, while we work on mutual cycling/motorcycling issues such as better road surfaces and improved safety mirrors on lorries, cycling organisations are opposed to sharing bus lanes with powered-two-wheelers and/or HGVs.’

MCN yesterday asked LCC for more details on the ‘near misses’ and ‘inconsiderate motorcycling’ but our request has so far been ignored.

The group has made a fresh appeal to London Mayor Boris Johnson to pull the plug on the 18-month trail, claiming it will ‘increase road danger for both pedestrians and cyclists’.

Since the trial began LCC has appealed for ‘objections’ through its website. It now claims to have ‘summarised the many hundreds of comments’ of concern for the Mayor.

Transport for London (TfL) last week said there was ‘nothing at this stage’ to indicate a single collision between a motorcyclist and cyclist in the trial.

LCC’s website urges its members to complete a TfL survey to ‘make cyclists’ views heard’ on the trial.

The group is also calling for ‘car-free zones’ including entire suburbs in which motorcycles and cars would be banned and residents would have to get around on foot or push bikes.

They run the risk of losing any credibility amongst either the cycling or motorcycling community if they keep coming up with scare stories like this to whip up misguided support.

I'm not impressed with what they are trying to do

 

[mangaman]

What about this ?

It IMO shows a deliberate attempt by the LCC to sabotage the trial through irrational and unfounded fear. This was 10 months into the trial



They run the risk of losing any credibility amongst either the cycling or motorcycling community if they keep coming up with scare stories like this to whip up misguided support.

I'm not impressed with what they are trying to do

It's MCN that's whipping up stories about nothing.

The LCC / CTC / TfL are awaiting the results of the study.

 

[very-near]

It's MCN that's whipping up stories about nothing.

The LCC / CTC / TfL are awaiting the results of the study.

I'm sorry Mangaman, but they are campaigning to have the trial stopped. They are using an unrelated incident to support their stance. MCN is entirely right to raise this matter with them as they are deliberately misrepresenting motorcyclists to bolster their argument.

After the recent death of a cyclist in a collision with a motorbike, LCC is urging people to make their views known on the motorbikes in bus lanes trial before 5 January 2010.

A female cyclist died in hospital on 29 October 2009, nine days after the incident that took place while she was cycling eastbound along the Embankment.

LCC communications officer Mike Cavenett said, "Even though this fatality didn't take place in a bus lane, it shows how vulnerable cyclists can be.

"We're campaigning to reverse the mayor's trial, and give back bus lanes to cyclists as areas that provide them with greater safety."
http://www.lcc.org.uk/index.asp?PageID=1620

 

[dellzeqq]

even if the number of accidents were to decline for all time, the CTC might well campaign against allowing the experiment to continue. The Mayor wants to see more cycling (or so he tells us). Motorcycles in bus lanes discourage cyclists, particularly the less adventurous.

And motorcyclists are badly dressed. Which is worse.

 

[gaz]

I have no issue with motorcycles in the bus lane, as long as they don't think they are Valentino Rossi. There seams to be a lot of V. Rossi's in london bus lanes.

 

[marinyork]

It's quite simple Linford, London is London. They don't like the things and they tend to do things very differently to everywhere else. If they don't want them they don't have to have them.

 

[very-near]

It's quite simple Linford, London is London. They don't like the things and they tend to do things very differently to everywhere else. If they don't want them they don't have to have them.

This is all well and done, but other LA's look to trials like this to set their own guidelines on safety issues.

If the TFL decided to follow the request of the LCC and stopped it, then there is a real risk lives could be jeopardised because of their selfish attitude.

If they are using the guise of 'safety on the roads' as an excuse, it makes them a fairly obvious example of a self serving attitude with little else to back it up.

 

[marinyork]

This is all well and done, but other LA's look to trials like this to set their own guidelines on safety issues.

If the TFL decided to follow the request of the LCC and stopped it, then there is a real risk lives could be jeopardised because of their selfish attitude.

If they are using the guise of 'safety on the roads' as an excuse, it makes them a fairly obvious example of a self serving attitude with little else to back it up.

I know they pay attention (quite wrongly in some cases to what London is doing) but in this particular case you have to take into account the number of major cities that allow motorcyclists in some or all bus lanes. There was a consultation on motor bikes in bus lanes here and I can tell you you'd probably be pretty chuffed with the response from cyclists in this city .

Ultimately it really does come down to London does things totally differently on a number of issues to many other places and if they don't want motorbikes in bus lanes they don't have to have them...

 

[Lurker]

...If the TFL decided to follow the request of the LCC and stopped it, then there is a real risk lives could be jeopardised because of their selfish attitude.

If they are using the guise of 'safety on the roads' as an excuse, it makes them a fairly obvious example of a self serving attitude with little else to back it up.

Hardly. The preliminary data (see upthread) would seem to suggest that motorcyclists are one of the groups that are particularly at risk. I'd hypothesise that this would be because of an observed tendency for them to switch in and out of bus lanes, where the trial is in operation. Changing lanes at speed is always likely to be hazardous.

It also looks from the report as if allowing motorbikes into London bus lanes will not - contrary to what the motorcycle lobby suggest - result in increased safety for motorcyclists. However, as the report authors have stated, the data are highly provisional.

 

[dellzeqq]

in the end it's about numbers. Motorcyclists are a small minority with no future in cities. Cyclists are a bigger minority and we are the future in cities. Johnson made a promise to a crony, but, if he wants cycling to increase he's going to have to make it congenial.

In fairness what Linford doesn't know is that some bus lanes are reaching capacity for cyclists at rush hours - the southbound A24 in the early evening is rammed with cyclists. Adding motorcyclists to the mix is, for those of a gentler disposition, terrifying, because motorcyclists being motorcyclists they tend to fly along at silly speeds, changing lanes as and when they feel like it, and generally making themselves a nuisance.

Speaking personally I like trailing motorcyclists down bus lanes at just under the speed limit, and, thus far, my snowplough strategem has borne fruit twice - once when a car coming the other way turned right in to the motorcyclist, and once when a car changed lanes in to the motorcyclist.

 

[Norm]

It's MCN that's whipping up stories about nothing.

The LCC / CTC / TfL are awaiting the results of the study.

Whilst MCN has use in the smallest room, and it's not for reading, are the LCC still actively campaigning to get the trial stopped? They appear to be worried that the trial won't support their bluster.

"The number of collisions for all modes within the trial areas during operating hours did not have a statistically significant difference in the before and after period (369 in the 2008 ‘before’ period and 374 in the 2009 ‘after’ period).
Casualties between motorcycles and pedestrians have stayed the same (at 16 before and after), while those between motorcycles and pedal cycles have reduced (from 5 to 3).

I think there is a significance in that the number of collisions has not increased. The numbers are too small to draw much positive but at least allowing motorbikes into bus lanes has not resulted in the whole-scale slaughter which many (in the LCC, for instance) anticipated.

in the end it's about numbers. Motorcyclists are a small minority with no future in cities. Cyclists are a bigger minority and we are the future in cities.

Almost right. Cars have no future in cities, which would make the infrastructure big enough for cyclists, motorbikes and maybe even bendy buses.

 

[dellzeqq]

LCC and CTC campaigned against the 'trial' for the best of reasons - most cyclists don't want to ride in the bus lane with motorcyclists. Given that both organisations represent present and future cyclists would anybody have them do anything else. The result of the 'trial' is an irrelevance.