Hi, Only joined the site today, perhaps you're problem no longer applies - lets hope not. Anyway, after 3 years cycling my right hand/ rear mech Ultegra 6700 shifter began slipping intermittently on the down shifts/lower gear shifts. The problem was: the original factory grease had gotten filthy in the internal gear mechanism inside the shifter - you can see the cog inside the shifter, it has 10 small teeth I think, well stands to reason - it is a 10 speed shifter. Anyway the grease covering the cog and between the teeth was very dirty. It became a filthy,thick mess, whereby the ratchet was slipping between the teeth. When you shift the ratchet engages a gap between the teeth to give the corresponding gear. I gave it a thorough clean, by flushing it with a Teflon based spray. I then degreased it with a citrus degreaser, the same degreaser I use cleaning my drivetrain. I washed out the degreaser and dried the shifter using the cold setting of a hair dryer. To finish I then lubed the internals of the shifter with Finish Line Wet lube. The shifter was as a good as new.
Its a problem with Ultegra 6700 shifters - the internal gear mechanism is not covered. Since then I regularly clean and lube the internal area of the shifters. Haven't had a problem since and the shifting is consistently excellant.
To answer your question. I think with regular maintenance the shifters should last many, many years. In addition, never shift when the crankset is not turning. It puts unnecessary strain on the shifter. Try to avoid shifting under force or while pedaling at a very low cadence. Replace the gear cables on a regular basis. Both inner and outer cables every 10,000 km. A good round number. Who knows by following all of the above the shifters could last 20 years.