I think his confidence is misplaced. Headley Road and Mill Lane are tricky items, and I'd be surprised if the race doesn't fracture there - indeed I'd be surprised if there wasn't a crash or two.
It's 250km, with a long flat run in, and nothing on the route to disturb pros too much. Survive around the Box Hill circuit, chase any escape down to catch in the last 5km, bunch sprint, then it could be one of half a dozen at least. Lottery!
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