Thanks for the suggestions: I'll start looking into those. IN the meantime the chain seems to have started something new: after riding in heavy rain last week, and despite a fresh oiling of the chain, it feels like it's full of gravel in the mid gears and to a lesser extent in the bottom gear. Top gear is quite smooth though.
Does this extra information suggest anything or narrow down the options? I have a sneaking suspicion that it's related the the jockey wheels, but that's only conjecture based on an impression that the chain isn't running true in the jockey wheels sometimes, and the feeling could be caused by the chain running over the outer frame of the rear mech slightly. This is backed up, possibly by the feeling that in top gear, when the outer frame is most likely to be pulled away from the chain, it feels smooth, but as
@Blue Hills says, when riding it isn't easy to make a detailed inspection of these areas.