I go for larger.
It's not so much that you get fewer punctures, but those you do get are slower, so quite often you can finish the ride, or just pump up a couple of times on the way home. Thorns are quite good at plugging the holes they've made if the tube is unstretched - sometimes well enough that you only need to pump a couple of times a week.
Any tube you can get fitted will work in the short term, but in the longer term a tube that's oversized enough to crease will wear through on the crease, and very undersized tubes are delicate, and will do things like wear through on an eyelet that's showing round the edge of the rim tape.
My record mismatch was a 650c x 18-23 tube in a 700c x 28 tyre (someone at the shop had put it back in the wrong box, and I didn't de-box it until I needed it). The diameter was enough smaller to make fitting it a bit of a challenge, and it only lasted a couple of months before wearing through.