Analysis of the first 9 days of the Tour de France **SPOILERS**

[brommers]

I'll start with the Brits.
Froome - Awesome stage win and covering every break.
Cav - Still the best.
Cummings - When's he going to get his second stage?
Yates - White jersey and our next GC winner?
McLay - Revelation. Now realises that he can mix it with the big boys.
Thomas - Been doing a lot of work, but not right at the front. Still protected and plan B, Should something happen to Froome.
SKY's team - Some of them are still in touch overall and they're all doing a fantastic job.
Contador - Gone.
Nibali - might as well go home.
J-Rod impressive revival.
Pinot - Polka dot challenge only.
Quintana - Keeping his powder dry.
Alaphilippe - Stick to classics.
Sagan- Can't make him out at the moment - looks good at times, awful at others - don't think he will finish the race.
Please bring other riders in.

 

[beastie]

Thomas- is definitely not plan B for Sky now, that will be Henao.
Sagan- I would say has done fine, one stage and still likely for the green jersey.
Kittel - would have liked at least one more Sprint stage win.
Greipel - disappointing
Aru - is not quite at this level.

Sky- peachy
Movistar- ok
BMC - confused
Dimension Data- superb
Tinkoff- catastrophe

 

[HF2300]

It's probably still too early to say on Froome and the GC; the race hasn't really woken up yet. Nevertheless Froome looks to be in prime position given the opposition teams appear split and unable to put together the level of consistent support Sky have. I'm slightly surprised he didn't, or wasn't able to, attack and take more time yesterday.

I think Sagan's looked consistently good given his ambitions and the type of rider he is; he's been there or thereabouts in the sprints and you wouldn't expect him to be a front runner in the mountains; nevertheless he managed to stay in the lead group to pick up the sprint points yesterday.

Nibali's performance has been very mixed but if I recall correctly, he was only supposed to be there to support Aru and expecting fireworks so soon after the Giro might be optimistic.

Majka and Pinot haven't looked as strong as they might have, particularly Pinot, and I wonder whether they'll fade if the GC start hoovering up KoM points.

What about Dumoulin?

 

[Dogtrousers]

Sagan- Can't make him out at the moment - looks good at times, awful at others - don't think he will finish the race.

When has PS looked awful, and what makes you think he won't finish?

He's taken a stage, placed highly in others and he's worn both yellow and green over his boring old rainbow stripes. He put in a massive effort to take max points at the intermediate sprint yesterday and is only 7 points away from Cav in green, and has the ability to take points that are out of the reach of Cav, Kittel, Greipel, Coquard etc. The only reason I can think that he might not finish is that he might be getting tired of all the green in his wardrobe.

 

[Dogtrousers]

And another thing. Why do people capitalise Sky? AG2R and FDJ are abbreviations, so fair enough, but Sky isn't.

 

[Flying_Monkey]

1. Sagan has done everything right in terms of getting the Green - going up the road with the break on Stage 8 to make sure he got intermediate sprint points, which he knew Cav and Kittel would not be able to do, was exactly why he's likely to be in Green in Paris (and I predict he will take Green over tomorrow) and not either of those two superior sprinters - especially because Cav has clearly sacrified a bit of road stamina for track speed this year. It's Cav who will most likely not make it to Paris of these three (although I'd still like to see him win on the Champs Elysée again - if he's there, he will).

2. Henao is Sky's Plan B in this race. Thomas is not being protected.

3. Cummings will likely not even try for another stage (but if he does, it will be the one into Berne - which will be on many Classics specialists' radar).

4. Alaphilippe is still young. Most GC contenders don't really come into their own until their later twenties. Aru is also young, but at the moment he is also disappointing. Part of the problem for Aru is Nibali, who should be his super-domestique in this race but doesn't like him and won't really work for him.

5. BMC's dual leadership strategy is stupid. They need to get TVG and Porte to agree to work for one or the other in any particular GC. Porte's little attacks on Stage 8 didn't help him or TVG and instead just played into Froome's hands (although it's ludicrous to suggest, as some have, that Porte is secretly working for Froome).

6. I'm not sure about Quintana yet. Ventoux will be the first really big test, followed swiftly by the first ITT. Froome could take control here, but if Quintana is still within striking distance then it will be a much more interesting final week. But I am sure, baring misfortune, that there are now only two possible winners of this Tour. With all due respect to Yates, he may win white and finish in the Top 10, but I don't think he yet has the stamina or experience to make the podium after three weeks.

 

[perplexed]

How's about Bardet?

I can't see him finishing in front of Froome or Quintana by Paris, but where so we think he'll end up?

 

[smutchin]

I agree with everything @Flying_Monkey said.

The only thing I can add to that is how impressive Dan Martin is looking - not really a surprise after his showing in the Dauphiné but I think he's looking like a possible podium contender. Will be interesting to see how he does in the time trials.

Bardet doesn't look quite as strong and will definitely lose time in the TTs.

Pinot is easily the biggest disappointment for me so far. I suspect he peaked too soon this season.

Rolland has been disappointing too but then I didn't have high expectations for him. Thought he might challenge for the polka dots though.

 

[HF2300]

Pinot is easily the biggest disappointment for me so far. I suspect he peaked too soon this season.

Rolland has been disappointing too but then I didn't have high expectations for him. Thought he might challenge for the polka dots though.

Well, he is in polka-dot at the moment, but only just and I don't know if he looks convincingly like keeping it; but TBH, realistically could more have been expected from Pinot, despite French hopes?

I don't think clouting that wall a couple of days ago has helped Rolland's chances much.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

I'm very disappointed in Pinot. I thought he was going to develop into a top rider. But he has this amazing ability to find and repeatedly bash into metaphorical brick walls that other riders can't even see. He then moodily retires defeated and spends the rest of the year learning how to deal with that wall - his descending confidence, followed by a lot of racing car speed training to correct this springs to mind. But then he manages find another wall....

 

[Dogtrousers]

I keep plugging away with Pinot in my fantasy teams on the basis that he has the same name as a dog that my sister owned years ago (Thibeau). But my patience is at breaking point. Other dogs of my sister's are "Cypress" and "Missy" so I'm waiting for an appropriately named rider.

 

[Tenacious Sloth]

And another thing. Why do people capitalise Sky? AG2R and FDJ are abbreviations, so fair enough, but Sky isn't.

Because it's a name?

 

[Dogtrousers]

Because it's a name?

Sorry, I didn't make things clear: Why SKY (all caps)? And not Sky. We don't see people writing COFIDIS do we?

Or is it an artefact of some auto-correct software?

 

[Mad Doug Biker]

How's about Bardet?

I can't see him finishing in front of Froome or Quintana by Paris, but where so we think he'll end up?

He's 6th (I think) right now, but as you say, there is no chance of him beating the better riders, and he'll probably fall down the listings again no doubt, so I reckon somewhere in the top 15 or 20. The top 10 would be nice, but, only time will tell.

I just think he needs to develop further and probably get a better team too (much as it pains me to say).

One thing thing that got me the other day there was the fact that itv4 keep telling us how good he is at descending etc etc, and told us that 'when he goes, nobody can beat him'...... Just before Froome went off the front and descended to his first stage victory of the tour, leaving the rest of them, including Bardet at the top of the summit looking like a bunch of lemons!

A real lost opportunity there and no mistake!

 

[brommers]

Sorry, I didn't make things clear: Why SKY (all caps)? And not Sky. We don't see people writing COFIDIS do we?

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