# When will bike boom end?



## mustang1 (8 Jul 2014)

1. When will current bike boom end?
2. Why did the last bike boom end?


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## Globalti (8 Jul 2014)

1 - It won't end, numbers will continue to rise then slowly plateau once most golf clubs have closed down and ever more obtuse brains fail to embrace the idea of cycling.

2 - The last bike boom (hardly a boom) ended in the 60s when cheap car ownership became possible. Even our own MatthewT has deserted his once-loved bike for the joys of motoring. He'll be back in 20 years when he realises he's become unfit and overweight.


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## raleighnut (8 Jul 2014)

Helmet COMPULSION seems to cut cycling numbers in other countries lets just hope it doesn't come here.


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## biggs682 (8 Jul 2014)

there will always be a demand for cheap n chearfull bso's


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## Flick of the Elbow (8 Jul 2014)

In Scotland it could end on the 18th September.


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## TissoT (8 Jul 2014)

When the cycle company's stop producing bikes and components ....


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## format (8 Jul 2014)

First of all, we're not really in a bike boom, outside of London and a few other places around the UK. See here for more information http://www.thinglink.com/scene/542631379158958082

Second of all 



Flick of the Elbow said:


> In Scotland it could end on the 18th September.



Eh?


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## shouldbeinbed (8 Jul 2014)

agree outside of London seems to be more a pop than a boom and I think the TdF is going to be another flash in the pan, like full tennis courts during Wimbledon fortnight that tail off again quickly. No more cyclists on my roads right now & the bike shed at work is still me and a couple of abandoned rusting hulks.


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## Globalti (8 Jul 2014)

I work in a company of 275 employees and as far as I know I'm the only sports cyclist. My commute is 21 miles but I have almost never used the bike because of the lack of facilities here for showering and bike storage. A handful of lab and factory staff who live locally use BSOs and dump them in a quiet corner. Currently we are expanding with an £8m programme of investment in a new factory, offices etc. yet there are no plans for a decent shower suite or secure bike storage. Our CEO was interested in buying a bike recently (I had to talk him out of buying a £6000 arse-in-the-air racing Cannondale) but now he has shelved the plan because his wife witnessed a bike crash and told him he mustn't risk his life. A hopeless situation and one in which 99% of people find themselves.


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## Brandane (8 Jul 2014)

mustang1 said:


> 1. When will current bike boom end?
> 2. Why did the last bike boom end?



Wasn't aware that there was a bike boom; either now or in the past. Probably not applicable to the west of Scotland, as the weather means it will never be a mass participation sport. There are a consistent number of cyclists around, but we are a special breed . The masses prefer the shelter of the car.


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## Soltydog (8 Jul 2014)

Globalti said:


> Our CEO was interested in buying a bike recently (I had to talk him out of buying a £6000 arse-in-the-air racing Cannondale)


if he's a similar size to you, you should have talked him into buying it & maybe you could have got a bargain in the near future


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## davdandy (8 Jul 2014)

Yes there is a boom,i see loads more bikes now than i ever did before Wiggins won the Tour and the track cycling where winning everything.I myself am a victim of the Wiggins effect so that's one on the list and there are thousands of others.

But not a bad thing,its a good thing.I would probably not got a bike if it wasn't for the attention these guys have brought to the sport and i for one am eternally grateful.I only wish i had don't it years before.When will it end,maybe when the Brits stop winning,so lets hope that doesn't happen.


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## Shut Up Legs (8 Jul 2014)

raleighnut said:


> Helmet COMPULSION seems to cut cycling numbers in other countries lets just hope it doesn't come here.


Amen to that!


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## ianrauk (8 Jul 2014)

For new commuters it will be when the nights close in, it's cold, it's wet and they get a mechanical.
1 bike goes back in the shed.


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## mcshroom (8 Jul 2014)

Our bike sheds at work are still steadily filling up. The numbers will drop when the weather and night draws in, but each time a few more stay on and the overall trend is upwards


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## Smokin Joe (8 Jul 2014)

We've had a few booms before, in the eighties when Roche won the TdF road bikes suddenly became popular and even the most unlikely people were riding round in team kit. Indeed Halfords were busy flogging Carrera and Fagor jerseys, to name but two. It remains to be seen whether this surge in popularity has a lasting effect, I have my doubts. It reminds me of when Carl Fogarty was dominating Superbikes and motorcycling became that era's "New Golf". Exactly the same type who are now splashing out on top range road bikes were buying Fireblades, R1s and the like. Then overnight the whole thing died on it's arse and dealerships everywhere were going bust.

The faster a fashion rises, the quicker it falls.


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## Globalti (8 Jul 2014)

Not sure if that will apply in this case. I count myself as a typical born again cyclist; rode bikes up to my mid twenties then got into cars and motorbikes and became overweight and unfit. Moved to beautiful Lancashire in 1988 and discovered the joys of the new mountain bikes, which I continued to enjoy for 20 years until I lost my MTB mojo and found road cycling. Thanks to this I am fitter at the age of 58 than I've ever been and don't think I will ever give up road cycling as long as I remain healthy enough and don't lose my marbles. I can't think of another sport that gives so much reward while keeping me so fit and healthy, at an affordable cost and straight from my front door. It also has a fascinating and subtle "lore" and offers the possibility of tinkering with some genuinely cutting edge sports equipment.


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## format (8 Jul 2014)

There really isn't a boom. You need to remember that just because you might have noticed some more people out cycling, it doesn't constitute much in a nation of 65m people. There might have been a *slight* upwards shift, but calling it a 'boom' or a 'revolution' is nonsense.


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## raleighnut (8 Jul 2014)

Where do they get these figures from- Nobody ever asked me how far and often I rode.
Gallup polls why don't you ask a few cyclists what they do.


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## Smokin Joe (8 Jul 2014)

Globalti said:


> Not sure if that will apply in this case. I count myself as a typical born again cyclist;



Aha, thus proving my point. You gave up before when the benefits of riding a bike were no different to what they are now.

Well done for getting back into it and with your history of cycling I'm sure you'll stick, but many of the new cyclists we see out and about are fashionistas. When it's no longer cool they'll be off to the next Big Thing.


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## Cyclopathic (8 Jul 2014)

biggs682 said:


> there will always be a demand for cheap n chearfull bso's


Cheap perhaps. Cheerful definitely not.


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## Globalti (8 Jul 2014)

What sport will be next, do you think?


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## davdandy (8 Jul 2014)

Globalti said:


> What sport will be next, do you think?



Ladies beach volleyball.


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## snorri (8 Jul 2014)

raleighnut said:


> Where do they get these figures from- Nobody ever asked me how far and often I rode.
> Gallup polls why don't you ask a few cyclists what they do.


They've asked me in the past..


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## Pat "5mph" (8 Jul 2014)

snorri said:


> They've asked me in the past..


They seem to be asking us a lot here in Glasgow, then they do exactly the opposite of what was suggested


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## raleighnut (8 Jul 2014)

[QUOTE 3169570, member: 30090"]I'm assuming the peak in the late 70's and early 80's is due to the Winter of Discontent and the Recession?[/QUOTE]
Got me to pack up Motorcycles and rely wholly on my cycles


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## srw (8 Jul 2014)

format said:


>


If this is the data I suspect it is (which is, I believe, estimated based on vehicle counts on main roads) it's considered so unreliable by the ONS that they've stopped using it to calculate casualty rates. In particular it doesn't take account of the steady growth in off-road biking in the 1990s or of the propensity of cyclists to avoid main roads. Their main comparator is self-reported cycling distance based on large-scale surveys.

I work in two offices, one of about 400 people in a city, the other of about 1000 in an affluent town. Both regularly see 20-30 bikes in the bike racks. When I first started working I was, for years and years the only person in the office to ride to work, and considered slightly loopy for it. Up until a couple of years ago I'd have said the London cycling success story was confined to zone 1. I regularly drive on a commute from home to the M25. I first saw an adult cyclist on one particular stretch of road about 2 years ago. These days - at exactly the same time of day - it's rare I don't see at least one cyclist, whatever the weather. Gradually the habits of London are stretching into its hinterland.

The London cycling boom (which is, I think, what it is) it now too entrenched to burst in a hurry.


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## raleighnut (8 Jul 2014)

srw said:


> If this is the data I suspect it is (which is, I believe, estimated based on vehicle counts on main roads) it's considered so unreliable by the ONS that they've stopped using it to calculate casualty rates. In particular it doesn't take account of the steady growth in off-road biking in the 1990s or of the propensity of cyclists to avoid main roads. Their main comparator is self-reported cycling distance based on large-scale surveys.
> 
> I work in two offices, one of about 400 people in a city, the other of about 1000 in an affluent town. Both regularly see 20-30 bikes in the bike racks. When I first started working I was, for years and years the only person in the office to ride to work, and considered slightly loopy for it. Up until a couple of years ago I'd have said the London cycling success story was confined to zone 1. I regularly drive on a commute from home to the M25. I first saw an adult cyclist on one particular stretch of road about 2 years ago. These days - at exactly the same time of day - it's rare I don't see at least one cyclist, whatever the weather. Gradually the habits of London are stretching into its hinterland.
> 
> The London cycling boom (which is, I think, what it is) it now too entrenched to burst in a hurry.


The midlands has always had lots of cycles, Maybe cos most were traditionally made here. For the purpose of this post I'll define "the midlands as Northamptonshire- Yorkshire inclusive and across the width of the country. The world does not revolve around London ye knaw.


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## Wobblers (8 Jul 2014)

As @srw says, I don't think that the graph shows the whole story. When I moved to Birmingham, it was very rare that I ever saw another cyclist: now, it is rare when I don't. The same pattern is seen in Glasgow - every time I go back, I see more cyclists on the road. Even over Christmas and the new year, I spotted quite a few Glasgow cyclists whereas in earlier years I would have been the only one. So we're not just seeing an upturn in fair weather cyclists. I suspect that increasing fuel prices has resulted in at least some people turning away from their cars to try and save money.


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## A-lexandre (8 Jul 2014)

I think the question is : the bike boom, in which population group, and in which region. In my city the 16-25 unemployment rate is 42%. Thus we see a lot of young cyclists going around town, which is often linked with socialistic-environment-aware ideology (hey, that's me!). But 10 kilometers away, in another town, although which a higher global unemployment rate and patent poverty, you don't see a single cyclist, and mostly because the local administration doesn't make any incentive towards bicycle commuting, and because poor people are proud to own a car. And in a neighbourhood of the capital, on a flat ground and with a quite higher per capita income, you will see Bromptons everywhere ridden by people in suits.

The bike boom is there - in certain spots of society. But I think the best way to ensure the development of bicycle in one area is the creation of bicycle lanes, subsidied repair shops and 30km/h-limitation in the urban zones.


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## format (8 Jul 2014)

DFT Report -



> Since now we have consistent cycling data for three consecutive years, we can begin to examine whether there is any indication of a trend in cycling. For about two thirds of authorities, the pattern over 3 years has been mixed– increasing in one interval, and declining in the other. Over the three years, 13% of authorities increased cycling levels consistently, *whilst a fifth of authorities (20%) declined consistently. * There is some indication that those authorities with higher levels of cycling also saw higher increases in cycling in the last year.


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## Accy cyclist (9 Jul 2014)

I don't want the bike boom to get any bigger! I find myself spending more and more time giving a wave or a salute to other cyclists. Forty acknowledgements a ride is plenty enough thank you!


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## Gravity Aided (9 Jul 2014)

Getting quite visible in my area, but I work where 20,000 plus are employed, so I can sometimes see 4 bikes or more at a given intersection. I could be wrong, but I think the last few years' financial downturn/recession/depression/disaster has taken a few people out of their cars, maybe for good. cannot hurt them one bit. 
http://www.peopleforbikes.org/statistics/category/participation-statistics#recent-trends


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## srw (9 Jul 2014)

http://www.ctc.org.uk/resources/ctc-cycling-statistics
See section "is cycling increasing?". The data seems to be about 3 years out of date, but shows a clear upward trend.

The DFT data above is curious - it shows the _number_ of people cycling regularly as stable, for one particular definition of "regularly" but doesn't talk about _distance_. One might observe that the DFT isn't always the cycle-friendliest of departments. Going to Sport England's website (they did the research) cycling is the third most popular sport, after swimming and jogging, and ahead of football and golf. It's also worth taking a look at the underlying data for adults: http://www.sportengland.org/media/328142/1x30_sport_APS8Q2_16-_final.xlsx.

This shows that for adults (16+) there has been a statistically significant increase in cycling (21%) over the 7 years of the survey. The same is true for ...errr... more mature adults (25+) - 26% increase.

So I don't entirely know what the DFT are trying to say..


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## GrumpyGregry (9 Jul 2014)

srw said:


> I work in two offices, one of about 400 people in a city, the other of about 1000 in an affluent town. Both regularly see 20-30 bikes in the bike racks. When I first started working I was, for years and years the only person in the office to ride to work, and considered slightly loopy for it. Up until a couple of years ago I'd have said the London cycling success story was confined to zone 1. I regularly drive on a commute from home to the M25. I first saw an adult cyclist on one particular stretch of road about 2 years ago. These days - at exactly the same time of day - it's rare I don't see at least one cyclist, whatever the weather. Gradually the habits of London are stretching into its hinterland.
> 
> The London cycling boom (which is, I think, what it is) it now too entrenched to burst in a hurry.


The London boom, and it is undeniable there has been one, also prompts 'trickle-down' into SE England. Folk working in London but living in the halo of historic market towns commuter towns see bikes on the streets where they work and begin to imagine they might be feasible as transport where they live. For themselves and their families even if only at weekends. Southern Railway have seen a huge increase in demand for secure cycle parking at their stations, which they have, in part responded to, and have introduced their cycle hub concept at strategic locations on the network.

The 'trickle-down' also, regrettably, applies to cyclist behaviour. One rarely, if ever, saw, an RLJ on local roads hereabouts, ten years ago but such boorish manoeuvres are becoming increasingly common and the response to any attempt at chastisement predictably metropolitan.

And yes London and the South East isn't the be all and end all of the UK. But it does represent far and away the greatest population area of the UK. IIRC between 1 in 4 and 1 in 5 of the entire UK population live there. Get more of them cycling and much of the rest of the country will follow.


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## format (9 Jul 2014)

GrumpyGregry said:


> Get more of them cycling and much of the rest of the country will follow.



This sort of thinking makes me really uncomfortable.


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## mcshroom (9 Jul 2014)

What, encouragement by popular choice?


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## ColinJ (9 Jul 2014)

mcshroom said:


> What, encouragement by popular choice?


Perhaps the ideas that London is the centre of the universe, and that the population of the rest of the country are sheep-like followers of fashion?


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## Markymark (9 Jul 2014)

ColinJ said:


> Perhaps the ideas that London is the centre of the universe, and that the population of the rest of the country are sheep-like followers of fashion?


Exactly. Nice to see a non-Londoner getting it.


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## GrumpyGregry (9 Jul 2014)

ColinJ said:


> Perhaps the ideas that London is the centre of the universe, and that the population of the rest of the country are sheep-like followers of fashion?


So if cycling becomes (more) fashionable in London and the South East, where roughly a quarter of the current UK population live, the northern types will reject the whole idea as some effete southern affectation and do what, jump back in their cars in protest...?

Right you are, your loss.


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## ColinJ (9 Jul 2014)

GrumpyGregry said:


> So if cycling becomes (more) fashionable in London and the South East, where roughly a quarter of the current UK population live, the northern types will reject the whole idea as some effete southern affectation and do what, jump back in their cars in protest...?
> 
> Right you are, your loss.


Which means that roughly three quarters of the UK population do _*NOT*_ live in London and the South East!

People have been riding bikes up here for well over 100 years without needing any encouragement from London!


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## phil_hg_uk (9 Jul 2014)

ColinJ said:


> People have been riding bikes up here for well over 100 years without needing any encouragement from London!



Blimey happy anniversary colin


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## GrumpyGregry (9 Jul 2014)

ColinJ said:


> Which means that roughly three quarters of the UK population do _*NOT*_ live in London and the South East!
> 
> People have been riding bikes up here for well over 100 years without needing any encouragement from London!


No one is arguing otherwise.

But where is the "bike boom" of the title taking place? London is now a cycling city despite the parp infrastructure.


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## ColinJ (9 Jul 2014)

GrumpyGregry said:


> But where is the "bike boom" of the title taking place?


Everywhere?


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## GrumpyGregry (9 Jul 2014)

ColinJ said:


> Everywhere?


If only that were true.


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## ColinJ (9 Jul 2014)

GrumpyGregry said:


> If only that were true.


We have a pedestrianised town centre but cyclists are allowed to ride through it. I slowly made my way through crowds of tourists a couple of weekends ago and one woman turned to another as I passed, and said "_What's going on - there seem to be bloody cyclists everywhere these days_"!


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## Gravity Aided (9 Jul 2014)

ColinJ said:


> We have a pedestrianised town centre but cyclists are allowed to ride through it. I slowly made my way through crowds of tourists a couple of weekends ago and one woman turned to another as I passed, and said "_What's going on - there seem to be bloody cyclists everywhere these days_"!



Right on, @ColinJ . Right on.


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## TheJDog (10 Jul 2014)

Strava should be a pretty good way of determining peaks/booms/whatever. I know not everyone uses it, but their data must be a good indicator of total numbers (and type of riding).


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## Globalti (10 Jul 2014)

We cyclists represent a very small culture and we chat and mix mostly with others of the same ilk. We are actually quite smug and self-righteous and it's difficult for us to appreciate that:

People who live in big cities inhabit a different world; they don't travel often out to the big countryside and when they do, they experience a sense of unease at the emptiness. I get this culture shock even when I travel from uncrowded Lancashire up to Scotland but I soon settle down and enjoy the solitude. The city becomes your life, everything and everyone you need is there and outside the city is only for visiting parents or friends' weddings. London is the greatest city in the world and the level of brainpower and expertise, wealth and culture and the centuries-old social systems make the rest of Britain look like a separate country and quite a scary, unpredictable one at that. 

People who don't ride bikes or undertake any regular exercise inhabit a different world as well; for them exercise is something that makes them out of breath and sweaty and is to be avoided. Cyclists are frightening, anarchic, sometimes aggressive, a little unhinged (why ride a bike when you can drive?) and generally in a different astral plane to most of the population. The fact that cyclist are visibly un-interested in motorised transport makes them all the more different and threatening.

Last weekend we camped on a golf course that the club had reluctantly agreed to open to TDF fans, once members had realised they wouldn't be able to drive there to play golf. When we arrived on the Friday evening there was a distinct atmosphere of tension at having their hallowed territory invaded by a hundred or so scary anarchists. We all got on fine and I hope our visit was a mind-opening experience for the golfers.


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## Bad Company (10 Jul 2014)

I don't see why the 'bike boom' should not continue. Even non enthusiasts like the economy of cheap transport. There are still some difficulties though, my gym/tennis club has bike racks but just the ones you can push the front wheel into so difficult to secure the bike. Hopefully this will be rectified.

I also hope the boom continues as I am a Halfords share holder.


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## glenn forger (10 Jul 2014)

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jul/10/tour-de-france-halfords-cycling-sales


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## Gravity Aided (10 Jul 2014)

I think we are seeing a more permanent biike boom, because a concentration has been reached. I live in an area that has Route 66 and Lincoln Sites, and it provides, through its touristiness, a good example. Some people are here because they live here, and were born here, like lifetime cyclists who have been cycling all their born days. Some come on business, and need the area to supply their agricultural materials, or steel, or heavy equipment, like commuters and utility cyclists. Others are just visiting, because of tourist attractions, relatives, or a wish to be in the country, like casual cyclists and Tour-de-France enthusiasts who are just into cycling because it's "in" But every year, the latter two classifications feed the former, and make more serious cyclists who make this a part of their life and culture, and encourage others to do so. We, as cyclists, are great evangelists for our cause, and the Internet has been a boon to cycling, IMHBLO.


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## raleighnut (10 Jul 2014)

Gravity Aided said:


> I think we are seeing a more permanent biike boom, because a concentration has been reached. I live in an area that has Route 66 and Lincoln Sites, and it provides, through its touristiness, a good example. Some people are here because they live here, and were born here, like lifetime cyclists who have been cycling all their born days. Some come on business, and need the area to supply their agricultural materials, or steel, or heavy equipment, like commuters and utility cyclists. Others are just visiting, because of tourist attractions, relatives, or a wish to be in the country, like casual cyclists and Tour-de-France enthusiasts who are just into cycling because it's "in" But every year, the latter two classifications feed the former, and make more serious cyclists who make this a part of their life and culture, and encourage others to do so. We, as cyclists, are great evangelists for our cause, and the Internet has been a boon to cycling, IMHBLO.


And its all cos of London.


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## Gravity Aided (10 Jul 2014)

En-ge-land swing like a pendulum do.


View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZokQbA5ljs


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## Kestevan (10 Jul 2014)

I commute almost every day, in a very hilly area, on crap roads with little cycle provision.
5 years ago I was lucky if I saw another commuter on a bike.
3 years ago, there was the odd one in winter, and a couple more on sunny days in summer.
Last year I could pretty much guarantee seeing at least 2 or 3 others no matter what the weather.
This year there's dozens about - rain or shine.

Oh, and I'm very much NOT in London or the SE.
<<<<<<<


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## w00hoo_kent (10 Jul 2014)

Kestevan said:


> Oh, and I'm very much NOT in London or the SE.
> <<<<<<<


We feel your pain.

:-D

And in a general response to the thread - "Oh my thing has got popular and people who aren't good at it are doing it now" can be heard in every hobby/passtime everywhere I'm afraid. People aren't going to stop doing new things, and band wagons are there to be jumped on. Best bet is to keep out of their way, or educate them in to being better as you feel.


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## srw (10 Jul 2014)

TheJDog said:


> Strava should be a pretty good way of determining peaks/booms/whatever. I know not everyone uses it, but their data must be a good indicator of total numbers (and type of riding).


To use Strava you must (a) have a GPS-enabled device; (b) use it on a bike; (c) care about monitoring your speed and distance; (d) not have some other way of doing so.

Strava is very heavily weighted towards people with a speed fetish, which is a small minority of all cyclists.


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## srw (10 Jul 2014)

Globalti said:


> We cyclists represent a very small culture.


http://www.ctc.org.uk/resources/ctc-cycling-statistics
"43% of the population owns or has access to a bicycle."

That's a _very_ large minority.


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## Kestevan (10 Jul 2014)

srw said:


> http://www.ctc.org.uk/resources/ctc-cycling-statistics
> "43% of the population owns or has access to a bicycle."
> 
> That's a _very_ large minority.


Yeah, but 42% of statistics are made up... everyone knows that.


In reality there are only 7 people in the UK with a bike...... they just ride about a lot.


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## ColinJ (10 Jul 2014)

srw said:


> http://www.ctc.org.uk/resources/ctc-cycling-statistics
> "43% of the population owns or has access to a bicycle."


But only 10% of them actually _ride_ their bikes ...


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## Gravity Aided (11 Jul 2014)

And define" has acess to". Sounds like there may be a bike near to 40% of the populace with a shoddy lock.


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## Globalti (11 Jul 2014)

When I think of my neighbours in my fairly average area I simply can't believe that 42% statistic. Casual observation would tell me 10% or fewer.


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## theclaud (11 Jul 2014)

Globalti said:


> When I think of my neighbours in my fairly average area I simply can't believe that 42% statistic. Casual observation would tell me 10% or fewer.


Nevertheless, you'd be wrong...


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## w00hoo_kent (11 Jul 2014)

theclaud said:


> Nevertheless, you'd be wrong...


Yup, I had a bike in the shed for 18 years I never touched, had access to it though, really good access.


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## dellzeqq (11 Jul 2014)

GrumpyGreg is right in one respect. The 'boom' is in London, and, in a much smaller way, Oxford, and Cambridge. Across the rest of the UK levels are flat or declining. I wish I thought it would improve elsewhere, but there's not much grounds for optimism.


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## mustang1 (11 Jul 2014)

My friends dad has "access to a bike" because he bought one. 

However there are 5 people in the house hold so technically they all "have access" to a bike but none of them ride. 

Multiply this scenario up and down the country and you have some great statistics to publish. 

Compare this to cars in that same household: there are 5 cars, each person has their own car.


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## theclaud (11 Jul 2014)

mustang1 said:


> My friends dad has "access to a bike" because he bought one.
> 
> However there are 5 people in the house hold so technically they all "have access" to a bike but none of them ride.
> 
> ...



The statistics on car ownership, availability and use are all available from the same place the ones about bikes came from. We know that access does not equal use, but it is access all the same. Five cars to a household is an unusually high level, and access to cars is very strongly correlated to income. Which is a polite way of saying that your friend's dad probably lives in a household which has more money than sense...


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## Globalti (11 Jul 2014)

Somebody probably took the numbers of bikes sold in the last ten years and divided that by the population. What they forgot was that half those bikes are BSOs and probably ended up in the canal, in the skip or rusting behind the shed.

It reminds me of my favourite statistic: there are 7 million cats in Britain and 10 million families who think they own a cat.


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## Brandane (11 Jul 2014)

Gravity Aided said:


> And define" has acess to". Sounds like there may be a bike near to 40% of the populace with a shoddy lock.


They probably count 100% of the population of London as having "access to a bike" because of the Boris rental monstrosities. This has now spread to Glasgow, so throw 100% of the population of Glasgow into the stats too. Despite the fact that I have yet to see ONE of the Glasgow bikes actually being used! My bet is on that particular waste of money being abandoned after the commonwealth games.


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## w00hoo_kent (11 Jul 2014)

theclaud said:


> The statistics on car ownership, availability and use are all available from the same place the ones about bikes came from. We know that access does not equal use, but it is access all the same. Five cars to a household is an unusually high level, and access to cars is very strongly correlated to income. Which is a polite way of saying that your friend's dad probably lives in a household which has more money than sense...


Or three teenagers/children over the age of 17. You only have to be comfortable, if everyone is working and saving money individually, to have lots of people in a house owning cars. I've a friend with 4 people in the house and 5 cars (one with both of the daughters that they bought themselves, his, his wifes and the company car) fortunately they also own 12+ bikes...


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## Pale Rider (11 Jul 2014)

A bike shop owner told me bike sales have been about two million a year for as long as he can remember.

Reported increases can be misleading because the figures often relate to the amount of money spent on cycling.

Obviously, prices go up, so an increase in annual spend doesn't automatically equate to more bicycles.

With two million sales a year, bikes should be everywhere.

The fact they are not seen everywhere indicates most bikes are only used a handful of times before being relegated to the back of the shed.


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## Globalti (11 Jul 2014)

Well, yes..... but don't forget that bikes that are in use aren't left out in the open for fear of theft!


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## Smokin Joe (11 Jul 2014)

When I moved here 13 years ago it was unusual to be out on a ride and meet another roadie. This morning alone I've seen about six in the four hours I was out working in the car. However, they were not commuting or going shopping so the boom is purely a sporting one, I doubt if the car use of any of them has dropped a jot. They'll be off to Tesco or B&Q in the motor as normal after they've got home and showered. And thing that does not indicate the boom will be anything other than relatively short lived is the majority of riders are late thirties upwards, it's still very rare to see teenagers or twenty somethings on bikes.

The more I see it, the more I think it mirrors the motorcycling boom that began in the mid nineties and has now all but petered out with bike sales halving between 2008 and 2012. Personally, I couldn't care less. How many other people were interested in cycling at any given time has never bothered me, I like it and I do it and it's popularity has never had any effect on that. Indeed during my most active years There were probably less than 1 in 100 of the population who could have named a single pro cyclist, with the exception of that foreign bloke Earnie Muckx or something, you know the guy who won that french rally.


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## Globalti (11 Jul 2014)

It's ironic that at the time when sport cycling is growing in popularity, obesity is also increasing at a shocking rate. I do believe that this is largely income-driven: people with limited means will not be able to afford a decent bike that is enjoyable to ride and will tend to spend their meagre income on foods that give them the most calorific bang for their buck, i.e. laden with sugar and carbs. People who receive a reasonable and regular income can afford to spend upwards of £500 on a bike that's easy and enjoyable to ride and they begin to see the benefits of regular exercise. I also believe that the sport cycling boom is at the expense of other sports like golf as people in their thirties, forties and fifties grow tired of the petty restrictions and traditions of golf clubs and the fees and the problem of slow golfers holding others up.

The biggest influence in the growth of cycling is undoubtedly the bikes themselves; first we had mountain bikes with their smooth easy ride, great handling, go-anywhere nature, wide range of gears and good brakes so many born-again cyclists like me started out on a mountain bike. Then along came road bikes with great handling, stiff but smooth riding frames, light weight, compact, well-padded bars, easy gears and STI shifters, bringing many of the mountain bikers over to the road and new recruits straight into road cycling. If we were still riding old steel frames that handle like a farm gate with downtube shifters and skinny vinyl-wrapped bars and massive gears, I don't think road cycling would have taken off at all beyond the traditional diehards.


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## Pat "5mph" (11 Jul 2014)

Brandane said:


> This has now spread to Glasgow, so throw 100% of the population of Glasgow into the stats too. Despite the fact that I have yet to see ONE of the Glasgow bikes actually being used! My bet is on that particular waste of money being abandoned after the commonwealth games.


You are quite mistaken, the Next bikes are very popular, I see them used a lot.
By a lot I mean I see at least 3 used anytime I'm on the road myself.
On the inaugural day of the scheme I saw at least a dozen.
Mind, their use is restricted to the position of the docking stations.
Obviously they will be used less after the Games, when visitors leave and parking restrictions are lifted.


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## MisterStan (11 Jul 2014)

ColinJ said:


> But only 10% of them actually _ride_ their bikes ...


Seems like a similar percentage of CC'ers who actually ride at times....


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## w00hoo_kent (11 Jul 2014)

My thing is that my commuting has moved from car and walk to car and bike, so I'm doing a lot more miles there and as a knock on from that I'm doing leisure miles but at the moment I'm too worried about bike theft to do utility miles on it and that's likely to continue. At some point the whole N+1 equation might end up with me having a pannier clad tourer thing (you know, when I've run out of sensible slots to fill and am not sufficiently far gone for a recumbent :-) ) but even then, unless security has moved on a lot in those intervening decades, I can't see myself using a bike to go shopping over driving the car.


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## Brandane (11 Jul 2014)

Pat "5mph" said:


> You are quite mistaken, the Next bikes are very popular, I see them used a lot.
> By a lot I mean I see at least 3 used anytime I'm on the road myself.
> On the inaugural day of the scheme I saw at least a dozen.
> Mind, their use is restricted to the position of the docking stations.
> Obviously they will be used less after the Games, when visitors leave and parking restrictions are lifted.


I stand corrected, as you obviously spend more time in Glasgow than I do. However, I stand by my prediction that they are a white elephant in the long run. They will either rust away or be stolen/trashed by the local yoofs before the end of the coming winter; those combination locks they are using to secure them at the docking stations don't look like much of a challenge to your average 14 year old fae the Possil!


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## srw (11 Jul 2014)

Gravity Aided said:


> And define" has acess to". Sounds like there may be a bike near to 40% of the populace with a shoddy lock.





Globalti said:


> When I think of my neighbours in my fairly average area I simply can't believe that 42% statistic. Casual observation would tell me 10% or fewer.





mustang1 said:


> My friends dad has "access to a bike" because he bought one.





Globalti said:


> Somebody probably took the numbers of bikes sold in the last ten years and divided that by the population.





Brandane said:


> They probably count 100% of the population of London as having "access to a bike" because of the Boris



Or you could take the _enormous_ trouble to click three links and discover that...

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/259549/nts0608.xls
This is a national statistic so has been certified as reliable. It is produced via a detailed, in-depth questionnaire with 52,600 respondents, 45,000 or so of them adults. The actual questions asked and the methodology to process the data are freely available online. Of the 43% who own or have access to a bike, 42% own a bike and only 1% have access. The average number of trips per person per year is 24 for boys and men and 9 for girls and women, 16 overall. Which means that each of those 43% average 37 trips per year.

With a few more clicks you will discover that although the average number of bike trips per person per year has remained roughly constant at 16 or so since the mid 1990s, since 2002 the average distance travelled on a bike per person per year has increased from 36 to 53 since 2002. Unfortunately there is no time series for bike ownership.


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## jarlrmai (11 Jul 2014)

My entire team (of 2) has just bought bikes in the last week...


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## Cycling Dan (11 Jul 2014)

Globalti said:


> 1 - It won't end, numbers will continue to rise then slowly plateau once most golf clubs have closed down and ever more obtuse brains fail to embrace the idea of cycling.
> 
> 2 - The last bike boom (hardly a boom) ended in the 60s when cheap car ownership became possible. Even our own MatthewT has deserted his once-loved bike for the joys of motoring. He'll be back in 20 years when he realises he's become unfit and overweight.


I went with motorbikes with a CBR500 lined up and I am finding it hard to come back to cycling. Poor Allez race is just hung up in the garage like a old war trophy


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## Gravity Aided (12 Jul 2014)

ColinJ said:


> Which means that roughly three quarters of the UK population do _*NOT*_ live in London and the South East!
> 
> People have been riding bikes up here for well over 100 years without needing any encouragement from London!


I believe that the concept of pedaling a bicycle, and rear wheel drive of the bicycle(albeit by shafts), were invented in the North.


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## Flick of the Elbow (12 Jul 2014)

Gravity Aided said:


> I believe that the concept of pedaling a bicycle, and rear wheel drive of the bicycle(albeit by shafts), were invented in the North.


True, the bicycle was invented by Mr Kirkpatrick Macmillan of Keir Mill near Dumfries. Dumfries in fact started a Boris Bikes scheme several years ago but it hasn't caught on.


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## Gravity Aided (12 Jul 2014)




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## Smokin Joe (13 Jul 2014)

Gravity Aided said:


>


Saddle's too low.


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## bigjim (13 Jul 2014)

> If we were still riding old steel frames that handle like a farm gate with downtube shifters and skinny vinyl-wrapped bars and massive gears,


Don't know what you've been riding but my old quality steel bikes handle beautifully and smooth silent DT shifters are a joy.


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## snorri (14 Jul 2014)

Globalti said:


> It's ironic that at the time when sport cycling is growing in popularity, obesity is also increasing at a shocking rate.


Not sure why you see it as "ironic". If cycling is ever to be used as a tool to fight obesity, it will be mass utility cycling and not sport cycling that will be required. Very few people continue participation in the same active sport throughout their lives, but more could be encouraged to continue the less strenuous but more regular habit of utility cycling.
I can't go along with the views you express in the second paragraph. While modern bikes may as as a result of clever marketing been successful in getting more people to buy bikes, i don't think they have been effective in keeping people cycling in the longer term. The user soon discovers that derailleur systems need regular maintenance, bikes without mudguards are not so clever in typical UK weather and the lack of chainguards results in soiled clothing and the need for more time to be spent on the messy task of chain maintenance. . The would be cyclist asks himself why his (relatively) low tech bicycle requires more time spent on maintenance than his car and eventually just dumps the bike in a corner and reverts to motor transport.


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## Globalti (14 Jul 2014)

No, most people don't even get as far as that! If I asked my colleagues, most of whom live within the town, why they don't cycle I'm sure the responses would be:

I'm not good on a bike
Too dangerous
The helmet would mess up my hair
I couldn't wear the clothes
How would I carry my stuff?
It's too far
There's nowhere to change and store the bike
I'd get wet
I'd get cold
etc.

There's the massive image problem too: recently I had the son of one of my overseas agents on the phone, who is a student in Hertfordshire, wanting my advice on buying an old BMW 3 series somebody had offered him, so that he could drive the mile to college rather than having to walk. I'm pleased to say that I managed to dissuade him, especially because he hadn't realised that he would need insurance, which would cost more than the car, not to mention the cost of running a £500 banger. When I asked him why he didn't consider buying a pushbike his shock was palpable; I almost heard him spit in disgust at the idea of him, the smart young man about town, riding a _bicycle_!


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## Gravity Aided (14 Jul 2014)

That's not how I felt when going to University. It was a big campus, mostly walkways, and I still thought about bringing my car. Then I saw the rules about cars and got a bike about 2 weeks into the school year. IIRC, you could have a car, but had to keep it in a lot all week and only get it out on weekends. Among other things.


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