# What do we think will happen to the bike market post lockdown?



## DSK (29 Apr 2020)

With the fitness and cycle shops having a sudden burst of demand, do we think there will be bargains to be had when they re-open? 

I have just sold one of my road bikes, a Trek only as it was a touch small frame size wise. I'm in the market to find another road bike to replace it (no rush) but, generally the used bikes in the usual portals seem to have people generally taking the biscuit with pricing.


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## Grant Fondo (29 Apr 2020)

Tough one to answer. Reduction in manufacturing in Taiwan etc could push prices up? Just hope the LBS's make it through


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## ianrauk (29 Apr 2020)

I'm guessing a good few will be chucked into the shed to gather dust.


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## DCLane (29 Apr 2020)

My LBS can't source enough £350-500 hybrid bikes and has a waiting list for repairs.

A small number will keep going, but sadly many won't be used beyond this is my view. Spin classes have gone online for those that have kit, others have bought bikes. Football/rugby/cricket/etc.'s stopped and there's families out, when cinema/shopping/sports begin my guess is many will go back.

Remember that a small increase results in quite a big increase in what is a minority activity in the UK.

A couple of years from now and there'll be more budget bikes for sale is my guess.


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## AuroraSaab (29 Apr 2020)

I think a big pull for many is both the extra time on their hands and the quiet roads. Once the traffic starts again a lot of families will put the bikes away. I think bike shop prices will stay static but there will be used bargains come the winter.


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## vickster (29 Apr 2020)

I expect new will be more expensive due to the battering the global economy is taking
As will lots of things
Which will in turn push up used prices


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## CanucksTraveller (29 Apr 2020)

Lots of the newly bought bikes will see some summer use but be garage/ shed queens by autumn, though I can't see the used market being flooded for a while yet... maybe in a year, two years when the realisation dawns that there's a bike in there that's gathering dust? I'd expect used prices in 2 years to be much lower than they are right this minute but it won't be immediate I shouldn't have thought.


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## ianrauk (29 Apr 2020)

vickster said:


> I expect new will be more expensive due to the battering the global economy is taking
> As will lots of things
> Which will in turn push up used prices


Especially with all the international freight companies putting up prices recently.


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## NorthernDave (29 Apr 2020)

While I've seen a fair few new people on new bikes in the area, they've almost all been on supermarket BSOs (you know - full suspension, 20+ gears and all for under £99) which are being ridden round with rattling gears and squealing brakes after "limited home assembly".
While it would be great to imagine these will be a stepping stone to better things and it is good to see people on bikes, the reality is that they'll soon be left rusting in sheds and gardens in need of maintenance and eventually end up in a skip somewhere so I doubt they'll have any effect on future residual values.


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## sleuthey (29 Apr 2020)

DSK said:


> With the fitness and cycle shops having a sudden burst of demand, do we think there will be bargains to be had when they re-open?


No. I think that due to the number of cars that will be repossessed by finance companies the demand for bikes will increase forcing prices up


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## All uphill (29 Apr 2020)

If lots of people lose their jobs and struggle financially I can see possessions being sold to make ends meet. That will include little used bikes.

I hope I am wrong and there is step change in cycling and walking. That would be wonderful.


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## screenman (29 Apr 2020)

ianrauk said:


> Especially with all the international freight companies putting up prices recently.



Tell me about it, I import as part of my business.


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## screenman (29 Apr 2020)

The motor trade see more cars on the roads, do you want to sit on a crowded public transport.


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## SkipdiverJohn (29 Apr 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Lots of the newly bought bikes will see some summer use but be garage/ shed queens by autumn, though I can't see the used market being flooded for a while yet... maybe in a year, two years when the realisation dawns that there's a bike in there that's gathering dust? I'd expect used prices in 2 years to be much lower than they are right this minute but it won't be immediate I shouldn't have thought.



Cycling is one of those activities taken up for virtuous reasons, like losing weight and drinking less, that frequently doesn't last very long - as the majority of participants soon revert to their normal behaviour patterns.
I can see elevated cycling levels all through summer, until the weather starts to turn in the autumn. Then the new lockdown cyclists will mostly shove their bikes in the shed and leave them there even when the weather improves next spring. I can see quite a lot of secondhand stuff appearing over the next year or two - but it will be mostly BSO's and the cheaper type of hybrid. I don't think the market will be flooded with more high end road bikes - because that's not what i see most of the lockdown riders riding. When you are out on the road a lot, you can easily recognise the dedicated roadies from the commuters, and the seasoned riders from the lockdown newbies. The lack of road sense with the latter is often the giveway.


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## Brooks (30 Apr 2020)

This time of year our local easy paced cycle group always have newbies turning up with bikes pulled out of the shed covered in cobwebs with a rusty chain and hardly any air in the tyres. I just think the current situation has brought more of these people out due to the extra time on their hands. When the lockdown ends those bikes will be back in the shed.😀
Hopefully a good few will rediscover why they bought that bike in the first place and continue cycling.


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## biggs682 (30 Apr 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Lots of the newly bought bikes will see some summer use but be garage/ shed queens by autumn, though I can't see the used market being flooded for a while yet... maybe in a year, two years when the realisation dawns that there's a bike in there that's gathering dust? I'd expect used prices in 2 years to be much lower than they are right this minute but it won't be immediate I shouldn't have thought.



That's what happen's to a lot of bike's bought on the cycle to work scheme


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## sheddy (30 Apr 2020)

A bike is for life, not just for lockdown.


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## NorthernDave (30 Apr 2020)

biggs682 said:


> That's what happen's to a lot of bike's bought on the cycle to work scheme



Ironically given that we're all now working from home, I've just been reminded that the company C2W scheme is available...


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## MarkF (30 Apr 2020)

It's a virus blip, I am looking for a cheap canal bike and there are bikes for sale locally that are essentially shagged junk, for £100+. Decades old supermarket MTB's are being wheeled out and listed on Gumtree. I saw a Raleigh summat in "Good condition" yesterday that looked like it was FROM the canal.

The other thing I am buying right now are jigsaws, for my mum. The same thing is happening, jigsaws I used to buy for her for sub £5 are now £15-20 (Damaged box, only 2 pieces missing). Crappy old bikes and jigsaws are where the £££'s are at the mo'.


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## tom73 (30 Apr 2020)

No wonder so many will pack it all in with some of the slagging off that's going off. 
Until it's over we won't really know how many will carry on. 
Any up lift is welcome as for Glut of BSO flooding the market. 
We all mock them and have a go at them but some really look to have a hard core issue with them. 
Many just don't know how to buy anything else or don't have a shop to go to. Some even can't afford anything better if a BSO is what it takes to get some on a bike and stay on one who never would then good luck to them. Some may well upgrade at some point. We need all the help we can get the up take is now making more LA take note together with social distancing which is here stay for some time. Has seen more safe placers being put in place any you never know some of it may well stay.


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## matticus (30 Apr 2020)

NorthernDave said:


> Ironically given that we're all now working from home, I've just been reminded that the company C2W scheme is available...


Chr1st, what a crazy situation.
"Is this bike primarily for commuting?"
"You mean my morning 1hour loop back to our spare room? Yeah, obvs!"


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## tom73 (30 Apr 2020)

Be more fun than a stairlift just watch out for the paint work


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## vickster (30 Apr 2020)

matticus said:


> Chr1st, what a crazy situation.
> "Is this bike primarily for commuting?"
> "You mean my morning 1hour loop back to our spare room? Yeah, obvs!"


There are schemes which have always allowed access to home workers (to allow fairness and parity of benefits to those who work away from home, and equal opportunity to exercise for health)...whether folks agree or not with such a policy doesn’t really matter


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## matticus (30 Apr 2020)

I think it's crazy that a tax-cut for buying bikes is available ... but only to quite a narrow niche of UK citizens.
(I'm not bitter, as 2nd-hand has always been a better bet for me. Unless the scheme will cover a bespoke frame?? )


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## Dogtrousers (30 Apr 2020)

Not 100% on topic but related

France govt offers €50 to repair your old bike & get ready for deconfinement. Simply turn up at the bike shop and the shop applies for the cash. Anything over €50 you pay yourself.


View: https://twitter.com/Artfrombikeshed/status/1255767503004893184


Link in French http://www.leparisien.fr/societe/de...-doper-l-usage-du-velo-29-04-2020-8308353.php

Courtesy of Google Translate
_Two-thirds of the 30 million bikes owned by the French take dust. To get them out of the cellar or the garage, the government will offer a "repair check" of 50 euros. “It is a boost to the bike during the deconfinement period to encourage us to choose this mode of travel. We want this period to take a step forward in cycling culture, and that the bicycle is the little queen of deconfinement in a way ”, explains the Minister of Ecological Transition, Elisabeth Borne, who carries the plan to facilitate the practice of cycling .

In total, 20 million euros are released by his ministry to cover repairs, temporary parking spaces and training.
_


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## SkipdiverJohn (30 Apr 2020)

tom73 said:


> as for Glut of BSO flooding the market.
> We all mock them and have a go at them but some really look to have a hard core issue with them.
> Many just don't know how to buy anything else or don't have a shop to go to. Some even can't afford anything better if a BSO is what it takes to get some on a bike and stay on one who never would then good luck to them. Some may well upgrade at some point.



I don't have any problem with BSO's, as it's not me that has got to put up with riding one. Actually, I find them a useful source of certain spare parts, so long as you sling the boat anchor suspension frame back in the skip where it belongs. Quite a lot of my mileage is done on bikes that, although not outright BSO's, are definitely at the low budget end of the market - and for what they cost they do the job perfectly adequately and have the benefit of not getting stolen either. A functional bike doesn't have to involve spending large amounts of money.


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## DSK (1 May 2020)

Whilst I understood from the posts that BSO are referenced as low end/budget bikes, I didn't know what BSO meant, so googled it. 

I will agree that for many people a BSO is where they start (and where I started many times in my late teens and early 20's). There is a market for them and many reasons why people buy them, such as affordability, it will do, need something unattractive, something to just sling around, a bike is a bike attitude etc with ride/build quality etc coming at the bottom of the list. Most of the people outside a forum will have kittens hearing about bikes costing £500/1k upwards. Its only when one takes a greater interest in cycling that they realise what a mistake a BSO is and a few hundred more could have got something reasonable.

That France govt scheme looks fair considering a lot of stuff will easily get going with a few minor tweaks and lube etc.

Its taken the circumstances of Covid-19 to seriously get me in the saddle, with me just going for a bit of exercising, not realising that my exercise route trounces what my work to commute would be. I hope on the other side, people do start using bicycles more, be it for a bit of leisure or commuting.


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## mustang1 (1 May 2020)

It will continue to rise for a month after lockdown then just as new bike shops are opening, people will go back to using cars and public transport. Then after a year, the bike shops will run out of money and close.

The well established shops will remain open just like they did before the lockdown was even a figment of WHO's imagination.


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## kingrollo (1 May 2020)

Public transport will take a bashing - will they switch to cycling or cars and Uber ? 

Sadly I think it will be cars.


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## tom73 (1 May 2020)

That's if they have the money to run a car many more are going to find they need to make savings.


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## Dogtrousers (1 May 2020)

kingrollo said:


> Public transport will take a bashing - will they switch to cycling or cars and Uber ?
> 
> Sadly I think it will be cars.


I saw some figures from Hunan (very different society to us, but nonetheless interesting). Post lockdown public transport tanked as you would expect, private cars took up the slack, nothing much else changed.

A lot of people don't live within reasonable bike commuting distance of their place of work so if they want to avoid public transport they will have no choice but to go by motor vehicle. Other people who do live within bike commuting distance may find the roads an even more hostile place than before.

People may switch to a bit of car sharing in order to make them feel virtuous.


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## PaulSB (2 May 2020)

matticus said:


> I think it's crazy that a tax-cut for buying bikes is available ... but only to quite a narrow niche of UK citizens.
> (I'm not bitter, as 2nd-hand has always been a better bet for me. Unless the scheme will cover a bespoke frame?? )


I've never thought it crazy but it always makes me smile. I can't help but wonder how many bikes purchased under schemes such as C2W are actually used for commuting? I don't know if figures are available but I doubt if purchases are checked to ensure the bike is being used to commute.

Incentives which encourage people to exercise though cycling, increase bike sales and generate long-term income for bike shops are a good thing but in fairness should be available to all. Dressing it up as a C2W scheme available only to those whose employers put the scheme in place is unfair.

Do I lose sleep over this? No. Does it strike me as unfair? Yes.


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## SkipdiverJohn (2 May 2020)

PaulSB said:


> ncentives which encourage people to exercise though cycling, increase bike sales and generate long-term income for bike shops are a good thing but in fairness should be available to all. Dressing it up as a C2W scheme available only to those whose employers put the scheme in place is unfair.



There's a much simper way to incentivise cycle use that would avoid all the admin and general buggering about involved with C2W. Simply change the VAT regime so bikes and parts/accessories are either zero-rated or only 5% rated, thereby making cycling cheaper to participate in. Now we've given the EU busybodies the boot, there should be no reason why we can't reduce the VAT levied on things that might encourage more physical activity and therefore be healthier.


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## screenman (2 May 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> There's a much simper way to incentivise cycle use that would avoid all the admin and general buggering about involved with C2W. Simply change the VAT regime so bikes and parts/accessories are either zero-rated or only 5% rated, thereby making cycling cheaper to participate in. Now we've given the EU busybodies the boot, there should be no reason why we can't reduce the VAT levied on things that might encourage more physical activity and therefore be healthier.



Do not hold your breath on that one, although I feel it is a good idea, we already pay a higher rate than the EU minimum and I feel we will be paying even more quite soon.


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## MichaelW2 (2 May 2020)

If the demand is there, factories in Taiwan and China will supply bicycles. It is car factories that have a problem. Will they reopen given a massive oversupply, lower demand and marginal profitability. They were kept open by inertia, we may as well struggle on, one last push, this will be over by Christmas. Now that they have closed, inertia is working against them. People may even prefer fresh air.


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## SkipdiverJohn (2 May 2020)

I suspect what will delay car production getting back to normal is the fact there are going to be a lot more unemployed or generally skint people around who have had their hours/overtime/bonus cut, so a lot less demand for big ticket purchases.
Also, buying pretty much anything involving a face to face transaction is currently just so much hassle as to remove any possible pleasure from it. The only things I am still buying are food/drink/household stuff unless I spot something else whilst already shopping for basics. There's no way I'm going to endure endless queues and general inconvenience for anything I don't actually need to live on. Discretionary purchases can wait until all the virus hysteria is over with.


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## NorthernDave (2 May 2020)

MichaelW2 said:


> If the demand is there, factories in Taiwan and China will supply bicycles. It is car factories that have a problem. Will they reopen given a massive oversupply, lower demand and marginal profitability. They were kept open by inertia, we may as well struggle on, one last push, this will be over by Christmas. Now that they have closed, inertia is working against them. People may even prefer fresh air.





SkipdiverJohn said:


> I suspect what will delay car production getting back to normal is the fact there are going to be a lot more unemployed or generally skint people around who have had their hours/overtime/bonus cut, so a lot less demand for big ticket purchases.
> Also, buying pretty much anything involving a face to face transaction is currently just so much hassle as to remove any possible pleasure from it. The only things I am still buying are food/drink/household stuff unless I spot something else whilst already shopping for basics. There's no way I'm going to endure endless queues and general inconvenience for anything I don't actually need to live on. Discretionary purchases can wait until all the virus hysteria is over with.



Don't forget that hardly anyone buys new cars any more - the majority of the market is now leased / contract hire and that's what's kept the market moving given the increasingly unaffordable price of a new car.
While that's worked up to now as it means you can have a shiny new car on the drive every 3 years for "just £200 down and £200 a month", a lot of people are suddenly finding out that being committed to neverending payments for something you'll never own might not be such a good idea.


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## SkipdiverJohn (2 May 2020)

I'm old-fashioned when it comes to buying stuff. I don't lease anything and I don't use any form of finance, not even the "interest free" variety (which really isn't anyway). Strictly cash on the nail outright purchase. Anything I can touch at home is actually mine and actually paid for. Nothing belongs to the bank or some sort of other financial entity.


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## NorthernDave (2 May 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I'm old-fashioned when it comes to buying stuff. I don't lease anything and I don't use any form of finance, not even the "interest free" variety (which really isn't anyway). Strictly cash on the nail outright purchase. Anything I can touch at home is actually mine and actually paid for. Nothing belongs to the bank or some sort of other financial entity.



Sadly we're in a minority in that respect.
A lot of people are leveraged up to the hilt on the basis of keeping up with the Joneses and the good times never ending. Those chickens may well be coming home to roost now.


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## screenman (2 May 2020)

I wonder how many people on this forum will lose their jobs, a real sad thought. I call the things in shops that are wanted as opposed to needed are almost job creation schemes, without them a huge percentage of jobs would be gone. So to protect those jobs we all need to keep spending, as much as we can afford of course.


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## SkipdiverJohn (2 May 2020)

screenman said:


> I call the things in shops that are wanted as opposed to needed are almost job creation schemes, without them a huge percentage of jobs would be gone. So to protect those jobs we all need to keep spending, as much as we can afford of course.



I agree with you up to a point, because economic activity is economic activity all said and done - BUT with globalisation and offshore manufacturing, a lot of the jobs supported by consumerism aren't actually OUR jobs in the UK!
If I decide, for whatever reason, not to buy a new smartphone/bike/TV/electronic gadget/car etc this year, the only UK losers in the majority of cases are those invoved in the retailing and distribution of those goods. The hit of the reduced manufacturing demand is mostly going to be taken in the Far East, and personally I am in favour of everybody in the West deliberately hitting China as hard as possible as payback for spreading their virus around by not purchasing their manufactured output.


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## DCLane (2 May 2020)

+1 to the no finance comments above. Our cars are owned, mine's 12 years old and SWMBO's is 11 but we've owned hers for 10 years. Both cash purchases. Our only (now small) debt is the mortgage.

We were discussing this afternoon that many lease cars will be returned / defaulted on due to the lessors inability to pay. Maybe they will buy a cheaper car or use a bike/public transport - probably the former. There will be more second-hand cars as a result. Possibly more re-posessed houses a bit further on.

The status symbol of a nice car is irrelevant when it's the car payment or putting food on the table.


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## screenman (2 May 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I agree with you up to a point, because economic activity is economic activity all said and done - BUT with globalisation and offshore manufacturing, a lot of the jobs supported by consumerism aren't actually OUR jobs in the UK!
> If I decide, for whatever reason, not to buy a new smartphone/bike/TV/electronic gadget/car etc this year, the only UK losers in the majority of cases are those invoved in the retailing and distribution of those goods. The hit of the reduced manufacturing demand is mostly going to be taken in the Far East, and personally I am in favour of everybody in the West deliberately hitting China as hard as possible as payback for spreading their virus around by not purchasing their manufactured output.




How horrible is that lot, did you choose where you were born?


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## SkipdiverJohn (2 May 2020)

screenman said:


> How horrible is that lot, did you choose where you were born?



No, but I don't consider it my "duty" to support anywhere else but my own country. I was born in the UK, so that's the one place I have a loyalty to. The rest of the world is not my concern.


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## Brooks (2 May 2020)

I'm out of work and id love to see us bring back manufacturing back to these shores. The recent shortages of PPE highlights one of our major problems and that's manufacturing of simple goods always seem to go to these cheap slave labour countries. This race to the bottom on price is extremely harmful to jobs in this country. You only have to look at the likes of uber to see this. Tax avoiding companies like this destroying the long standing taxi trade. A cheap labour force propped up by working tax credits is a major scandal and it needs to stop. Other companies using the same offshore tax avoidance model are only a bad thing for our jobs and economy. Hopefully we can address this wrongdoing and get back to buying British made products.
I recently got myself a cracking Carradice Barley saddlebag and it's a quality bit of kit. We can make very good products we just need to support our own when we can.


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## screenman (2 May 2020)

Brooks said:


> I'm out of work and id love to see us bring back manufacturing back to these shores. The recent shortages of PPE highlights one of our major problems and that's manufacturing of simple goods always seem to go to these cheap slave labour countries. This race to the bottom on price is extremely harmful to jobs in this country. You only have to look at the likes of uber to see this. Tax avoiding companies like this destroying the long standing taxi trade. A cheap labour force propped up by working tax credits is a major scandal and it needs to stop. Other companies using the same offshore tax avoidance model are only a bad thing for our jobs and economy. Hopefully we can address this wrongdoing and get back to buying British made products.
> I recently got myself a cracking Carradice Barley saddlebag and it's a quality bit of kit. We can make very good products we just need to support our own when we can.



We can make great products, trouble is we cannot often make them for the price some would like to pay.


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## screenman (2 May 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> No, but I don't consider it my "duty" to support anywhere else but my own country. I was born in the UK, so that's the one place I have a loyalty to. The rest of the world is not my concern.




Your disregard for poor innocent people is outstanding.


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## All uphill (2 May 2020)

I am old enough to remember hundreds of people cycling out of factories at the end of a shift.

It would be great to see that again.


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## Brooks (2 May 2020)

screenman said:


> We can make great products, trouble is we cannot often make them for the price some would like to pay.


I'd rather pay a bit more to support our own and I know many people would rather have cheap instead.


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## roadrash (2 May 2020)

I would love to know how many of the items in skipdiverjohns house , you know all the things that he owns outright was actually made in this country, seeing as he has a loyalty to the uk and the rest of the world isn't his concern


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## screenman (2 May 2020)

Brooks said:


> I'd rather pay a bit more to support our own and I know many people would rather have cheap instead.



Nobody ever regrets buying quality, our business costs make things difficult.


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## Brooks (2 May 2020)

screenman said:


> Nobody ever regrets buying quality, our business costs make things difficult.


They do indeed, but let's have a level playing field to begin with and get rid of all these loopholes that allow the gig economy to bypass our tax system at the expense of tax paying companies.


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## SkipdiverJohn (2 May 2020)

screenman said:


> Your disregard for poor innocent people is outstanding.



I probably do less to create demand for third world sweatshops than most people. I don't repetitively buy consumer electronics every five minutes just because a new model of something has come out. I don't buy high-priced branded sports clothing made in far-east sweatshops by child labour and sold at an astronomical mark-ups. I don't buy fancy western-branded carbon fibre frames/bikes made in China/Taiwan by cheap labour. A lot of my durable goods are both old and of British manufacture, and most of my day to day living spending will mainly support British jobs in the UK.


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## screenman (2 May 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I probably do less to create demand for third world sweatshops than most people. I don't repetitively buy consumer electronics every five minutes just because a new model of something has come out. I don't buy high-priced branded sports clothing made in far-east sweatshops by child labour and sold at an astronomical mark-ups. I don't buy fancy western-branded carbon fibre frames/bikes made in China/Taiwan by cheap labour. A lot of my durable goods are both old and of British manufacture, and most of my day to day living spending will mainly support British jobs in the UK.



Fine we all know your feelings towards spending money. I wonder do your family all share the same views, our three boys are all careful with money and do not do debt, with only one still having a mortgage.


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## DSK (2 May 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> I'm old-fashioned when it comes to buying stuff. I don't lease anything and I don't use any form of finance, not even the "interest free" variety (which really isn't anyway). Strictly cash on the nail outright purchase. Anything I can touch at home is actually mine and actually paid for. Nothing belongs to the bank or some sort of other financial entity.



+1 Its the only way in my book.

I find it hilarious that stuff like appliances, beds, sofas, TV's, phones are all financed and prices are only jacked right up because so many silly people buy such stuff on finance.


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## screenman (2 May 2020)

DSK said:


> +1 Its the only way in my book.
> 
> I find it hilarious that stuff like appliances, beds, sofas, TV's, phones are all financed and prices are only jacked right up because so many silly people buy such stuff on finance.



Are you sure the costs are not high to cover the business costs? I will add that I am in business and have been for 45 years and that nobody in my family used credit unless a mortgage counts.


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## DSK (2 May 2020)

Business costs could be partial contributors but, I am in no doubt, that prices are further hiked to encourage a trend towards credit.


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## Brooks (2 May 2020)

My favourite coat is my Barbour Border wax jacket I've had it 34 years! Her indoors hates it for some reason 😀 I on the other hand love it, most years I rewax it but it's due a trip back to South Shields for some repairs.
I can't think of any item of clothing made in some cheap labour sweatshop that would last as long. I'm extremely proud that i invested in such a quality British product all those years ago, it was classed as an old mans jacket when I bought it 😀
I'll send it back for a rewax and a reline and new cuff linings and it should last another 30 years!!


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## screenman (2 May 2020)

Brooks said:


> My favourite coat is my Barbour Border wax jacket I've had it 34 years! Her indoors hates it for some reason 😀 I on the other hand love it, most years I rewax it but it's due a trip back to South Shields for some repairs.
> I can't think of any item of clothing made in some cheap labour sweatshop that would last as long. I'm extremely proud that i invested in such a quality British product all those years ago, it was classed as an old mans jacket when I bought it 😀
> I'll send it back for a rewax and a reline and new cuff linings and it should last another 30 years!!



Hate those things, I have a fleece jacket about that age, it has not fallen apart and goes in the washing machine.


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## Brooks (2 May 2020)

screenman said:


> Have those things, I have a fleece jacket about that age, it has not fallen apart and goes in the washing machine.


I know they made some serious quality long lasting clothing that's for sure 😀


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## screenman (2 May 2020)

Brooks said:


> I know they made some serious quality long lasting clothing that's for sure 😀




That was meant to say hate was jackets, fleece came from and Indian market stall in Kingston.


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## JPBoothy (2 May 2020)

DSK said:


> +1 Its the only way in my book.
> 
> I find it hilarious that stuff like appliances, beds, sofas, TV's, phones are all financed and prices are only jacked right up because so many silly people buy such stuff on finance.


Agreed.. I had it drummed into me by my parents that if you can't afford it then you don't have it. That advice has stayed with me for 40+ years and fortunately my wife is of the same belief. We have never had a high combined income but, to coin another old phrase from our parents 'we cut our cloth accordingly' and have still managed to bring up two teenage children and give them a holiday every year without getting into debt. I'm not fishing for a medal here, as I know that many people have done the same, but I'm just making a point.. I just can't believe that people are shallow enough to believe that their material things will impress anybody other than fellow shallow people. The media even makes it sound cool and an achievement to have a 'good' credit score. Why not have no credit score by paying for everything in the first place! The local Audi dealer that I regularly cycle past has a car advertised at 'from' £600 pcm. What sort of a muppet (other than a tax dodging businessman) would pay that?


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## DCLane (2 May 2020)

JPBoothy said:


> The local Audi dealer that I regularly cycle past has a car advertised at 'from' £600 pcm. What sort of a muppet (other than a tax dodging businessman) would pay that?



My neighbours. Or they were until it got re-posessed this week for non-payment.


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## screenman (2 May 2020)

JPBoothy said:


> Agreed.. I had it drummed into me by my parents that if you can't afford it then you don't have it. That advice has stayed with me for 40+ years and fortunately my wife is of the same belief. We have never had a high combined income but, to coin another old phrase from our parents 'we cut our cloth accordingly' and have still managed to bring up two teenage children and give them a holiday every year without getting into debt. I'm not fishing for a medal here, as I know that many people have done the same, but I'm just making a point.. I just can't believe that people are shallow enough to believe that their material things will impress anybody other than fellow shallow people. The media even makes it sound cool and an achievement to have a 'good' credit score. Why not have no credit score by paying for everything in the first place! The local Audi dealer that I regularly cycle past has a car advertised at 'from' £600 pcm. What sort of a muppet (other than a tax dodging businessman) would pay that?




Plenty of people can easily afford that amount, you make your choices and they make theirs. As for tax dodging business person, how does that work?


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## DSK (2 May 2020)

Well I went to Audi last summer looking to potentially buy a used approved Audi A8 4.2 TDI (cash). On the next desk was a couple trying to get an Audi A3 down a bit from something like £384 p/mnth to around £330 .... I just had to chuckle at how far people seem to stretch themselves for such ordinary tat. Whilst I can understand company car users/allowances to use such schemes, I cannot understand why private buyers do it.

Funny thing is, we get so many people in new cars (basic stuff to Range Rovers/Porsche's etc) all begging for 2nd hand tyres, unable to afford a new one and in some cases choosing to driveway on their existing unsafe tyre(s) .

Serious car nuts or those of older cars or, new stuff that's owned outright, we see people insisting on medium-premium quality tyres, never batting an eye at costs.


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## vickster (2 May 2020)

DSK said:


> Well I went to Audi last summer looking to potentially buy a used approved Audi A8 4.2 TDI (cash). On the next desk was a couple trying to get an Audi A3 down a bit from something like £384 p/mnth to around £330 .... I just had to chuckle at how far people seem to stretch themselves for such ordinary tat. *Whilst I can understand company car users/allowances to use such schemes, I cannot understand why private buyers do it.*
> 
> Funny thing is, we get so many people in new cars (basic stuff to Range Rovers/Porsche's etc) all begging for 2nd hand tyres, unable to afford a new one and in some cases choosing to driveway on their existing unsafe tyre(s) .
> 
> Serious car nuts or those of older cars or, new stuff that's owned outright, we see people insisting on medium-premium quality tyres, never batting an eye at costs.


How do you know that they weren’t buying it out of a work car allowance?


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## DSK (2 May 2020)

vickster said:


> How do you know that they weren’t buying it out of a work car allowance?



I heard the whole conversation where they tore down all their outgoings/income and even the dealer asked if they have a company allowance, to which they said no they were normal private buyers. The the salesman kept me at the desk going away and coming back repeatedly with finance deals he felt obliged to show me either way.


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## slowmotion (2 May 2020)

I don't have a crystal ball but I'm optimistic about people who have recently discovered cycling during "lockdown". Plenty of them will continue.


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## Brooks (3 May 2020)

slowmotion said:


> I don't have a crystal ball but I'm optimistic about people who have recently discovered cycling during "lockdown". Plenty of them will continue.


The longer this lockdown goes on the bigger the chance of people getting that lightbulb moment about cycling. People on 80% wages might well start to cut back on things and car usage could well be first. Once they realise you can cycle 5 miles in 30 minutes and it don't cost a bean may well get them thinking who knows.


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## JPBoothy (3 May 2020)

screenman said:


> Plenty of people can easily afford that amount, you make your choices and they make theirs. As for tax dodging business person, how does that work?


Can they afford it though? Making a payment out of your wage every month does not mean that you can necessarily afford the item, only that you 'want' it. People often get themselves into debt by confusing those two things, especially once they realise 'further down the line' that the more essential items (Food/Gas/Electric/Water etc..) are having to be sacrificed for the great big new shiny thing on the drive that no longer impresses the neighbours anyway! 

Your right though, you make your own choices. Unfortunately, some people are easily led and can be guided down the wrong path by a person keen to notch-up another sale with no regard for the trouble that they have just 'guided' those poor innocent people into.

As for my rash comment about the 'Tax dodging business person' then I apologise. Although, I'm sure that to the Company itself there must be some tax 'benefit' in it somewhere (not many are just genuinely nice) but, I accept that it is not one that is likely to be felt by the individual business person


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## slowmotion (3 May 2020)

Brooks said:


> The longer this lockdown goes on the bigger the chance of people getting that lightbulb moment about cycling. People on 80% wages might well start to cut back on things and car usage could well be first. Once they realise you can cycle 5 miles in 30 minutes and it don't cost a bean may well get them thinking who knows.


They might also realise that riding a bike in London is way faster than driving. Much more fun too. FFS, even I realised!

Edit: Sorry, you made the speed point. Apologies.


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## screenman (3 May 2020)

JPBoothy said:


> Can they afford it though? Making a payment out of your wage every month does not mean that you can necessarily afford the item, only that you 'want' it. People often get themselves into debt by confusing those two things, especially once they realise 'further down the line' that the more essential items (Food/Gas/Electric/Water etc..) are having to be sacrificed for the great big new shiny thing on the drive that no longer impresses the neighbours anyway!
> 
> Your right though, you make your own choices. Unfortunately, some people are easily led and can be guided down the wrong path by a person keen to notch-up another sale with no regard for the trouble that they have just 'guided' those poor innocent people into.
> 
> As for my rash comment about the 'Tax dodging business person' then I apologise. Although, I'm sure that to the Company itself there must be some tax 'benefit' in it somewhere (not many are just genuinely nice) but, I accept that it is not one that is likely to be felt by the individual business person




My point was, there are plenty of people earning enough to afford £600 a month, regardless of what other bills come in.


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## Milkfloat (3 May 2020)

JPBoothy said:


> Can they afford it though? Making a payment out of your wage every month does not mean that you can necessarily afford the item, only that you 'want' it. People often get themselves into debt by confusing those two things, especially once they realise 'further down the line' that the more essential items (Food/Gas/Electric/Water etc..) are having to be sacrificed for the great big new shiny thing on the drive that no longer impresses the neighbours anyway!
> 
> Your right though, you make your own choices. Unfortunately, some people are easily led and can be guided down the wrong path by a person keen to notch-up another sale with no regard for the trouble that they have just 'guided' those poor innocent people into.
> 
> As for my rash comment about the 'Tax dodging business person' then I apologise. Although, I'm sure that to the Company itself there must be some tax 'benefit' in it somewhere (not many are just genuinely nice) but, I accept that it is not one that is likely to be felt by the individual business person


It is also quite possible that they can afford it and chose to lease and invest the money elsewhere rather than own a heavily depreciating asset. For a lot of people, including myself, that is actually the wise thing to do.


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## SkipdiverJohn (3 May 2020)

DSK said:


> Business costs could be partial contributors but, I am in no doubt, that prices are further hiked to encourage a trend towards credit.



If you want a solid example of that, look at the relationship between property prices and interest rates and the availability of credit. Pundits keep coming out with "demand" as the explanation for the disconnection between property prices and wages, but it's total nonsense. The real reason is money is artificially cheap to borrow, and idiotic government schemes like Help to Buy just increase the availability of finance, which leads to vendors and developers jacking up prices, because the interest element of the repayment is relatively small by historical standards. When the majority of the population become credit junkies, the prices of goods get determined not by their real worth, but how much people can afford to pay per month for them.
There's going to be a rude awakening coming for many individuals and the businesses that sell goods to them on finance. Doesn't bother me one bit; I've opted out of the credit merry go round.


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## Paulus (3 May 2020)

screenman said:


> Do not hold your breath on that one, although I feel it is a good idea, we already pay a higher rate than the EU minimum and I feel we will be paying even more quite soon.


I quite agree that the tax rates on across the board will have to rise to pay for the economic situation we will be in. And for many years.


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## JPBoothy (3 May 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If you want a solid example of that, look at the relationship between property prices and interest rates and the availability of credit. Pundits keep coming out with "demand" as the explanation for the disconnection between property prices and wages, but it's total nonsense. The real reason is money is artificially cheap to borrow, and idiotic government schemes like Help to Buy just increase the availability of finance, which leads to vendors and developers jacking up prices, because the interest element of the repayment is relatively small by historical standards. When the majority of the population become credit junkies, the prices of goods get determined not by their real worth, but how much people can afford to pay per month for them.
> There's going to be a rude awakening coming for many individuals and the businesses that sell goods to them on finance. Doesn't bother me one bit; I've opted out of the credit merry go round.


No credit for me either but, I do appreciate that I am more fortunate than some, and for others it is 'to a certain extent' unavoidable to not have any credit at all (Single parent unable to work, paying off remainder of Student loans, needing a reliable car for long commute to work etc..) but, it is just being able to recognise what you 'need' from what you 'want'.. Please don't take my comments as being some sort of self righteous lecture as that is not my way, they are simply my own views/opinions being aired.. As for the businesses that sell the credit losing out. I doubt that, as there will be several different methods for piling on even more misery to those people already feeling pretty low as it is (repossession, court action, credit blacklisting..) and, they won't be losing any sleep over it I'm sure.


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## Gunk (3 May 2020)

JPBoothy said:


> Agreed.. I had it drummed into me by my parents that if you can't afford it then you don't have it. That advice has stayed with me for 40+ years and fortunately my wife is of the same belief. We have never had a high combined income but, to coin another old phrase from our parents 'we cut our cloth accordingly' and have still managed to bring up two teenage children and give them a holiday every year without getting into debt. I'm not fishing for a medal here, as I know that many people have done the same, but I'm just making a point.. I just can't believe that people are shallow enough to believe that their material things will impress anybody other than fellow shallow people. The media even makes it sound cool and an achievement to have a 'good' credit score. Why not have no credit score by paying for everything in the first place! The local Audi dealer that I regularly cycle past has a car advertised at 'from' £600 pcm. What sort of a muppet (other than a tax dodging businessman) would pay that?



15 years ago when I had a well paid job I was rocking around in £40,000 company cars, these days it’s just not a priority, but I understand why people like a fancy car, it’s a very nice experience.


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## JPBoothy (3 May 2020)

screenman said:


> My point was, there are plenty of people earning enough to afford £600 a month, regardless of what other bills come in.


Yes, I'm sure there are and they are sensible enough to know what they are getting into but, it's the others that I worry about who are perhaps too young and inexperienced to plan ahead for when times aren't going to be so good (such as now).


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## JPBoothy (3 May 2020)

Gunk said:


> 15 years ago when I had a well paid job I was rocking around in £40,000 company cars, these days it’s just not a priority, but I understand why people like a fancy car, it’s a very nice experience.


Oh yes, I do like those nice things too but, I just can't justify them these days.. Don't get me wrong, I was a 'Hot-Hatch' youth in the 80's myself


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## dodgy (3 May 2020)

Brooks said:


> My favourite coat is my Barbour Border wax jacket I've had it 34 years! Her indoors hates it for some reason 😀 I on the other hand love it, most years I rewax it but it's due a trip back to South Shields for some repairs.
> I can't think of any item of clothing made in some cheap labour sweatshop that would last as long. I'm extremely proud that i invested in such a quality British product all those years ago, it was classed as an old mans jacket when I bought it 😀
> I'll send it back for a rewax and a reline and new cuff linings and it should last another 30 years!!



Trigger's broom.


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## ExpatTyke (3 May 2020)

The thing that really annoys me about car PCPs is the fact that a lot of people are being persuaded to hand over perfectly good cars on a scrappage deal to get onto a PCP that gets them into a car they won't own, as due to the monthly payment they won't be able to save for the final purchase charge, or towards another car.

So, when the car has to go back they'll almost certainly sign up for a new deal.

It's genius marketing that's made getting rid of a useable possession while paying for something you'll never own seem like a good thing. 

It's also environmentally and financially insane, and is making a few people rich at the expense of a lot of people.

An additional benefit for the motor industry is that the scrappage schemes are causing a drop in the number of second hand cars at the lower end of the market, pushing up prices, which pushes more people towards a PCP.

Rant over - back to bikes. I suspect we'll see a lot of second hand bikes for sale in a few months. I've seen motor traffic steadily increasing over the last two weeks, and fewer people out on bikes. The poorer weather recently definitely has played a part, but I'm sure for a lot of people the novelty value has worn off.

Hopefully though quite a few people will have realised that a bike is a useful and enjoyable thing to own.


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## roubaixtuesday (3 May 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> personally I am in favour of everybody in the West deliberately hitting China as hard as possible as payback for spreading their virus around by not purchasing their manufactured output.



I was going to respond, but what's the point honestly. Particularly when preceded by



SkipdiverJohn said:


> we've given the EU busybodies the boot,



Obviously, only Brits do things right. 

Something so well demonstrated by managing to get amongst the very worst outbreaks in the world.


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## screenman (3 May 2020)

ExpatTyke said:


> The thing that really annoys me about car PCPs is the fact that a lot of people are being persuaded to hand over perfectly good cars on a scrappage deal to get onto a PCP that gets them into a car they won't own, as due to the monthly payment they won't be able to save for the final purchase charge, or towards another car.
> 
> So, when the car has to go back they'll almost certainly sign up for a new deal.
> 
> ...



You forgot all this creates a lot of jobs.


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## avecReynolds531 (3 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> That's if they have the money to run a car many more are going to find they need to make savings.


Cycling was always important to me: more so in 1997 when I gave up the car. It's easy to adjust to commuting and shopping (and holidays) on 2 wheels. The bike becomes a way of life and there are many benefits. 23 years without running a car has been, for me, a fantastic decision.


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## screenman (3 May 2020)

avecReynolds531 said:


> Cycling was always important to me: more so in 1997 when I gave up the car. It's easy to adjust to commuting and shopping (and holidays) on 2 wheels. The bike becomes a way of life and there are many benefits. 23 years without running a car has been, for me, a fantastic decision.



Doe anyone else in your household have one? Do you have a bus service, do your kids do activities miles away from where you live.


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## avecReynolds531 (3 May 2020)

screenman said:


> Doe anyone else in your household have one? Do you have a bus service, do your kids do activities miles away from where you live.


I acknowledge it's not feasible for everyone, particularly if people enjoy living in remote communities, or simply like their cars.
We're big fans of Dutch and Danish town planning, and of their bike cultures (from tots to great grandparents). What we've witnessed is that an environment can be created for citizens, in which the car is simply not necessary. Chris Boardman has made a great short film about Utrecht: 
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zq28fU2AuMU

We don't run a car at all, and that means where we choose to live, work, activities & amenties are all considered within bike distances. It didn't feel difficult, or at all, a limitation. We also thought about local public transport options (there are bus & train services) before we moved here.
In very rare occasions, it's easy to call a taxi or hire a car if needed....
Aside from the devastation of coronavirus and it's future impact on cycling, it will be interesting to see how much Andy Burnham and Chris Boardman will be able to effect real change in Manchester, and then, if that will influence further positive opportunities for citizens throughout the UK. In the Netherlands and Denmark, the bike infrastructure was comprehensive to the point that it extended through to village level - not just cities and towns. I don't think that's impossible for us too.
One thing for certain, once you've cycled in Denmark and the Netherlands, you'll never feel the same about what we have (or put up with) here.


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## DSK (3 May 2020)

That's a great video. 

Sadly, the government get a lovely cut from the motorist by controlling them like sheep towards what cars to keeping buying, then penalising them a few years later and forcing them into other style of cars. Add on the fuel costs, cameras, etc and there's a lot of rich people profiting beautifully from the motorist.

I personally think that quieter roads show more people happier to cycle but, for it to continue, there needs to be change in general motorists attitude to cyclists and perhaps some infrastructure tweaks/changes before people on a wider scale feel happy/safe/confident to cycle.


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## tom73 (3 May 2020)

Because of the current situation the government a few weeks ago made it really simple to bring in traffic control orders. 
Some LA acted within hours many others are bringing in stuff in too. 
Cycling UK is running a campaign to get more LA to use them. 
I contacted mine they basically came out with all the normal stuff blaming everyone else expect themselves. 
In my reply ask straight questions to a few points I received no reply so I guess they have no plains to do anything. 
Think it's more down to closed minds than not having any money.


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## SkipdiverJohn (4 May 2020)

tom73 said:


> Because of the current situation the government a few weeks ago made it really simple to bring in traffic control orders.
> Some LA acted within hours many others are bringing in stuff in too.
> Cycling UK is running a campaign to get more LA to use them.
> I contacted mine they basically came out with all the normal stuff blaming everyone else expect themselves.
> ...



Remember the majority of the public are motorists, not cyclists, and any TRO that restricts motor vehicles is going to piss people off and lead to complaints to the local councillors/MP. Since those councillors and MP's want to get re-elected, they are not going to antagonise the local residents if a high proportion of them are drivers.


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## matticus (4 May 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> .....
> Since those councillors and MP's want to get re-elected, they are not going to antagonise the local residents if a high proportion of them are drivers.


And yet some MPs/councillors DO choose the right thing, and risk antagonising selfish car-obsessives. So I choose to be optimistic that some will continue to do so - perhaps some drivers will have seen the light during these golden traffic-reduced days, and will come to thank the forward-thinking elected officials. It would cost you nothing to think the same


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## vickster (4 May 2020)

I reckon rush hour (trains/tubes especially) will be much quieter on public transport in London - as more people wfh, cycle or walk and purposefully avoid crowded public transport (at least in the short-medium term).
Outside London where people commute more by car who knows (depends if wfh becomes more the norm)
If wfh continues, hopefully the "school run" will turn into the school walk or cycle as parents don;t need to drop off on their way to work


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## SkipdiverJohn (4 May 2020)

The only thing keeping commuter numbers down is that building-based workplaces are wary about reopening as normal and cramming their space full of staff in close proximity, in case a load catch the virus then blame the employer for it. Therefore the numbers of people needing to travel daily to a fixed place of work has been drastically reduced. Once workplaces start to resume normal operations, the overcrowded commuting conditions and busy roads will quickly return. Anyone who thinks the virus is going to bring about some wholesale change to working patterns is deluding themselves. It might make a bit of difference at the margins, but unless the government was to mandate that every employee has a legal right to only attend work four days a week (doing the same total hours) then we are not going to see any significant reduction in peak hour commuting journeys by whatever mode of transport.


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## dodgy (4 May 2020)

I wouldn't be surprised if some countries say you *must *allow your employees to work from home and supply a bloody good reason if not. Kind of turning the pre-virus state of affairs on its head in terms of working from home.
After all, companies spend lots of money (occupational health, clean offices, traffic calming large sites) all designed to tune out danger and risk. If the single biggest risk an employee faces is the drive/journey to work and then being in close proximity to others, I can see it becoming a big HSE issue for the coming years.


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## DSK (4 May 2020)

Well our company for several year considered WFH (not on a wide scale) but, since we were forced to, we surprised ourselves at how quickly we got office workers and call centres all working from home and the company has remained strong.

Our company is now looking already at reducing floor space by not making WFH an exception but, rather more of an welcome option. 

I think other companies similar to ours may also do the same which may, reduce traffic outright but not enough to make an significant impact.


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## NorthernDave (4 May 2020)

DSK said:


> Well our company for several year considered WFH (not on a wide scale) but, since we were forced to, we surprised ourselves at how quickly we got office workers and call centres all working from home and the company has remained strong.
> 
> Our company is now looking already at reducing floor space by not making WFH an exception but, rather more of an welcome option.
> 
> I think other companies similar to ours may also do the same which may, reduce traffic outright but not enough to make an significant impact.



Similar here, but it only really works if you have somewhere appropriate to wfh - generally that means a spare room / home office. Perched on the sofa or requisitioning the kitchen table aren't suitable long term and are unlikely to pass a workstation assessment once HR departments catch up with the situation. 
Many people don't have the luxury of that space unfortunately.


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## Dogtrousers (5 May 2020)

Putting people in offices has hefty fixed costs. This will just accelerate the already existing trend towards home working for office/desk based jobs.

Mind you, putting people on to working from home permanently does require a bit more thought (and money) than simply spinning up a VPN gateway. My wife has worked from home for years, since her company closed the satellite office where she worked - and presumably saved a ton of money by doing so. She pops in to the main office once a month or so. She has a separate company phone/broadband line, great big monitor, company provided chair, printer etc.


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## DSK (5 May 2020)

Whilst we are successfully WFH we are already looking at an 'improved' proper home working solution from an Technology perspective. Our company was also kind enough to allow us to take kit from the office home and also advise that they would reimburse for desk/chair/monitor etc provided we don't take the biscuit ordering the most expensive shizzle lol.


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## Notafettler (5 May 2020)

AuroraSaab said:


> I think a big pull for many is both the extra time on their hands and the quiet roads. Once the traffic starts again a lot of families will put the bikes away. I think bike shop prices will stay static but there will be used bargains come the winter.


No, it takes at least two years before they start admitting to themselves that they aren't going to use the bike again. They will be gathering dust in the back of the garage for years to come!!


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## Cletus Van Damme (5 May 2020)

I think they will be a lot of good quality well priced used bikes, and a load of crap ones also. People might keep hold of them a while as mentioned above, but I'm sure some people will sell, more so if it's a decent one and worth a decent amount of cash, before it gets older and depreciates. I've been trying to get a mountain bike for my daughter and it's been very hard to find stock anywhere, hence while they'll be a lot of bikes after this, when a lot of people go back to being lazy. Luckily I found a Liv mountain bike in a local shop, by good fortune.

I'm pleased that bike shops haven't been hiking up prices to cash in etc. People seem to be trying to do that on a well known auction site with used ones, I just gave in looking and bought new. I'm going to put my daughter's Specialized Hotrock 24 up for sale, looking at other ones to get an idea, a lot of people seem to be taking the p1ss for worse examples than this one. I'll just sell it a fair price, can't stand that kind of thing.

I've got a Concept 2 rowing machine that I use at home. Just out of curiosity I looked on the same auction site at these, I have no intention selling it, just bored. I could get more than I paid for the machine new 3 years ago. I googled it again out of curiosity and you don't appear to be able to buy the machine anywhere. It was just a quick search though, but explains aution prices.

It would be good to think that people will stick to this fitness regime, or possibly gym memberships may fall, as people have been forced to find other methods. I guess somebody that buys an expensive rowing machine is fairly serious. I just bought it as I can't stand going to gym's.


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## SkipdiverJohn (6 May 2020)

Notafettler said:


> No, it takes at least two years before they start admitting to themselves that they aren't going to use the bike again. They will be gathering dust in the back of the garage for years to come!!



That could depend a lot on individual household finances. It's certainly true, based on some of my own secondhand purchases, that bikes _can_ be stored for decades unused before finally being sold on, but that assumes no urgent financial pressure to realise any cash by selling off non-essential items. That may not be the case this time round. The aftermath of this virus outbreak could well be worse than both the early 90's recession of the Major government and the 2008 financial crisis combined, and personal debt levels are now very high by historic standards. A lot of people spend right up to (and beyond) their means, which gives them no safety buffer if they suddenly find their income drastically reduced.That's when all the financed cars start to get repossessed and the household gadgets & toys flogged off to raise cash.


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## Archie_tect (6 May 2020)

I have no doubt that the golden couple 30-somethings who are riding around on shiny things in new day-glow lycra are the same people who also drive their Porsche Cayennes, their Jaguar SUVs, BMW 6/5s, Audi A7s and Mercedes AMGs everywhere on the deserted roads at stupid speeds despite lockdown will ditch their bikes on FB Marketplace and the world will settle slowly back to being the consumer society it was.

I'm still in mourning for Steeles of Gosforth....


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## screenman (6 May 2020)

I have not seen any new bikes or shiny live a clad new cyclist when out, and the idiots driving fast are not in upmarket cars, must be an area thing.


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## Globalti (6 May 2020)

Unfortunately nothing will change and by the Autumn everybody will be back in their cars sitting in traffic jams.

There are several simple reasons for the surge in cycling: the fantastic weather, the quieter roads and the low cost of a bike while people are not spending money on fuel, eating out or trips.

I'd be willing to bet that 95% of bike trips are less than three miles because people are just pootling around their district. Once we return to work, don't expect those people to ride 10, 20, 30 miles or more to the office.

Most of the bikes will end up rusting in sheds while their owner polishes the new w***panzer on the drive. Never underestimate people's quest for status; the car on the drive is the first symbol of status by which people judge their success in life.


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## Globalti (6 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> I have no doubt that the golden couple 30-somethings who are riding around on shiny things in new day-glow lycra are the same people who also drive their Porsche Cayennes, their Jaguar SUVs, BMW 6/5s, Audi A7s and Mercedes AMGs everywhere on the deserted roads at stupid speeds despite lockdown will ditch their bikes on FB Marketplace and the world will slowly settle slowly back to being the consumer society it was.
> 
> I'm still in mourning for Steeles of Gosforth....



Oh yes Steeles. I used to go in there and annoy Mike Steele by asking silly questions while almost never spending any actual money.


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## Archie_tect (6 May 2020)

screenman said:


> I have not seen any new bikes or shiny live a clad new cyclist when out, and the idiots driving fast are not in upmarket cars, must be an area thing.


There's the usual lads in black/graphite alloy Corsas and old Honda Civic-Rs with no baffles in their exhaust too- they're the ones who meet up in the evenings to drink and fool around.


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## screenman (6 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> There's the usual lads in black/graphite alloy Corsas and old Honda Civic-Rs with no baffles in their exhaust too- they're the ones who meet up in the evenings to drink and fool around.



That is all we see, the newer more expensive cars tend to be the one's sticking to the rules.


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## screenman (6 May 2020)

Globalti said:


> Unfortunately nothing will change and by the Autumn everybody will be back in their cars sitting in traffic jams.
> 
> There are several simple reasons for the surge in cycling: the fantastic weather, the quieter roads and the low cost of a bike while people are not spending money on fuel, eating out or trips.
> 
> ...



Man you do have a hatred of motorist inside you or is it just for those with a nice car, if I was an Audi owner and come in here as a new cyclist you would alienate me in an instant.


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## CanucksTraveller (6 May 2020)

Globalti said:


> I'd be willing to bet that 95% of bike trips are less than three miles because people are just pootling around their district.


My recent experiences seem to back that up, my daughter can do up to about 8 miles total so our trips are no more than 3-4 miles from home. The first two thirds of a mile on the local greenway are a bit of a nightmare with wobbly bikes everywhere and then when you get beyond that first mile it's empty.


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## screenman (6 May 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> My recent experiences seem to back that up, my daughter can do up to about 8 miles total so our trips are no more than 3-4 miles from home. The first two thirds of a mile on the local greenway are a bit of a nightmare with wobbly bikes everywhere and then when you get beyond that first mile it's empty.



Did we not all start off as wobbly cyclist. If I see a new cyclist which is seldom I always stop and have a chat, I doubt many on here do.


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## CanucksTraveller (6 May 2020)

screenman said:


> Did we not all start off as wobbly cyclist. If I see a new cyclist which is seldom I always stop and have a chat, I doubt many on here do.


Yes we did, you'll note that I wasnt criticising anyone, merely noting that they thin out quickly. Not all observations are critical.

Not the best time for stopping and chatting of course.


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## Globalti (6 May 2020)

screenman said:


> Man you do have a hatred of motorist inside you or is it just for those with a nice car, if I was an Audi owner and come in here as a new cyclist you would alienate me in an instant.



I enjoy driving and I have a nice practical Passat estate with DSG, which is a pleasure to drive. As a teenager I venerated BMW cars and bikes but in recent years I think the motor industry has gone too far in linking cars with machismo and selling ridiculously overpowered cars to people who just want a status symbol on the drive. Most people never get to use their car to its full capacity and most have no clue how fast and powerful it really is. 

My views are strongly coloured by having had a colleague who was by his own admission deeply materialistic and very upset that the standard executive car was an A4 or a Passat, both great cars. He once said to me: "The people I spend my weekends with (at Abersoch) are really nice; they all drive BMWs, Mercedes and Audis!" and: "I won't be satisfied until I've got a Beemer on my drive!"

He went to see our boss about it and the boss told him it was the standard car or the door, so he walked out of an excellent job with a great company, got his Beemer but is now in trouble because his employer has been bought by a bigger competitor and is about to disappear.

Living on the edge of a Lancashire mill town we see and hear a lot of German sports saloons being raced around by people who crave status and the bigger, noisier and more outrageously powerful, the better.


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## BigMeatball (6 May 2020)

sheddy said:


> A bike is for life, not just for lockdown.



I've seen all the kennels and dog clubs advertising the same message about dogs in order to try and discourage all these people bored out their mind who all of a sudden buy a puppy 

Regarding the bike market, I think a lot of people are buying bikes now, just to stop using them when the lockdown is over, so I would expect an absolutely great second hand market popping up 6-12 months after life goes back to normal


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## Blue Hills (6 May 2020)

screenman said:


> Man you do have a hatred of motorist inside you or is it just for those with a nice car, if I was an Audi owner and come in here as a new cyclist you would alienate me in an instant.


I didn't read globalti's comment that way at all.
It is true that too many folk see a car as a status thing, wasting loads of money in the process and helping to screw the planet.
Italy is a particularly sad case of car fixation.
I have experience of it.

I used to be an audi driver  writing it off in rather odd circumstances directly lead to me taking up adult cycling. And never looked back.


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## screenman (6 May 2020)

I predict that you will all be wrong about a great used bike market in the near future, I doubt it will be different than any other time.


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## CanucksTraveller (6 May 2020)

Globalti said:


> I won't be satisfied until I've got a Beemer on my drive!"



That attitude definitely exists doesn't it. 
I worked with one former RAF pilot who said to me "you haven't succeeded in life until you have had the three pointed star of Stuttgart on your driveway at least once". He actually said that with a straight face, and yes, he was an insufferable old prick. He would also refer to speeding (only his own speeding) as "a spirited drive", clearly it was a better class of speeding than those "oiks in their cheap Japanese cars" as he put it.


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## Dogtrousers (6 May 2020)

CanucksTraveller said:


> That attitude definitely exists doesn't it.
> I worked with one former RAF pilot who said to me "*you haven't succeeded in life until you have had the three pointed star of Stuttgart on your driveway at least once*". He actually said that with a straight face, and yes, he was an insufferable old prick. He would also refer to speeding (only his own speeding) as "a spirited drive", clearly it was a better class of speeding than those "oiks in their cheap Japanese cars" as he put it.


We're not all immune to that kind of thinking.

Over a decade ago I bought a Merc A class. The reason for this was that, after much research I found it to be particularly accessible - it's relatively high - so I could give my increasingly crotchety parents a lift, and I got one for a decent price. Now despite the fact that I'd got it for mainly practical reasons I do remember pulling on to my drive and opening the door and seeing the shiny Mercedes footplate thingy and thinking "Crikey, I own a Merc. Aren't I Mr Swanky?"

The reason for buying the car has gone - my dad has died and my mother is now wheelchair bound but I still have the damn rust bucket. The radio and aircon don't work any more. It's a diesel. It doesn't feel terribly swanky.


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## Globalti (6 May 2020)

Here's a video about sales reps and badge anxiety. Just the first minute will be enough for you; that attitude still exists.


View: https://youtu.be/CQsMFQZa8os


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## jay clock (6 May 2020)

in answer to the OP

a) massive unemployment meaning far more people having to use bikes (£20 BSO with no brakes) as a basic means of getting around
b) millions of semi unemployed/early retired having more time on their hands to pootle around doing leisure cycling (a bit like we have now in lockdown
c) Massive crash in new bike sales. We mostly (on here) have enough bikes and suddenly will discover that our heap of N+1s are actually enough, particularly when our jobs go/incomes plummet
d) modest increase in bike repair services
e) 30% or more closure of LBS
f) increase in bike commuting where people avoid bus/train (cars too for same reason)


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## Gunk (6 May 2020)

Globalti said:


> Here's a video about sales reps and badge anxiety. Just the first minute will be enough for you; that attitude still exists.
> 
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/CQsMFQZa8os




its worst now, cheap leasing deals have fuelled it so it’s no longer just salesman who are anxious that their car is not good enough.


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

Globalti said:


> Here's a video about sales reps and badge anxiety. Just the first minute will be enough for you; that attitude still exists.
> 
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/CQsMFQZa8os



From 1993  It's that when your prejudice started?

I don't think I know anyone who is obsessed with cars as a status symbol


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## Globalti (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> I don't think I know anyone who is obsessed with cars as a status symbol



Where do you live? On a Hebridean island?


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## matticus (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> I don't think I know anyone who is obsessed with cars as a status symbol


Either by luck or good choices, you are blessed to not suffer these people!


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## Globalti (6 May 2020)

Leasing and PCP have allowed immature idiots to drive cars that should only be driven on race circuits. The consequences are obvious to anybody who has seen an overpowered car buried in a wall or worse, lost a friend or family member to a reckless driver.


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## Drago (6 May 2020)

Prices of new bikes will rise. Demand is up, yet the factories have by and large been closed. Increased demand + reduced supply = elevated prices. Indeed, this phenomenon looks set to seriously spank new car prices as well.


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

Globalti said:


> Where do you live? On a Hebridean island?


South London. It’s just not important to the people I know and at work. Those who do own a car choose based on practicality or budget. I have one friend who leases her car as she doesn’t have the cash to buy outright, her husband does too via his business.

I used to be a bit of a petrol head but it was never about the marque and perceived status. I have a decent car bought on the basis of the car not its brand.

Clearly there are nobber boy and girl racers, dicks on sports bikes, thug types in pick ups and vans, Mr diddy penis in his S5 or M3 or whatever. 
I may encounter these people but as I said, I don’t know (or work) with these people.


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## Drago (6 May 2020)

Leasing is cheaper than PCP, and can be cheaper than straight finance. Unlike PCP or finance, all the maintenance is the problem of the leasing firm, so it can be quite cost effective compared to other methods.

PCP is frightening. You're paying to service a car you don't even own!


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## Globalti (6 May 2020)

When Mrs Gti inherited some money she decided to treat herself to a car and went out looking for ex-demonstrators at affordable prices. In one local garage the young sales guy, whose name was Adil, simply refused to accept that she wanted to pay cash. He was so keen to earn the commission from selling her PCP that it became embarrassing and we left. Adil is now known in our family as "No deal".

I think PCP will eventually become the new mis-selling scandal.


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

Don't know anyone who's ever bought a car on PCP either


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## Dogtrousers (6 May 2020)

vickster said:


> Don't know anyone who's ever bought a car on PCP either


Driving a car on PCP could be ... interesting.


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## vickster (6 May 2020)

Dogtrousers said:


> Driving a car on PCP could be ... interesting.


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## Archie_tect (6 May 2020)

If you drive the monthly payment down hard enough you can get a car on PCP which works out much cheaper per month with residual values than buying it with an HP loan, when you factor in depreciation and mileage. 

It all comes down to the total residual cost over 3/4/5 years of running and selling/ returning it. All cars depreciate unless you can service and repair it yourself to maintain it in showroom condition... in which case you future proof your investment in saved labour charges.


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## Gunk (6 May 2020)

Drago said:


> Leasing is cheaper than PCP, and can be cheaper than straight finance. Unlike PCP or finance, all the maintenance is the problem of the leasing firm, so it can be quite cost effective compared to other methods.
> 
> PCP is frightening. You're paying to service a car you don't even own!



My experience of providing company cars is that PCP is actually cheaper monthly but you couldn't claim any of the VAT back (that may have changed now) so we always leased cars, usually 3x36 so 3 months down and a three year lease.

Maintenance is not automatically included with a lease, in fact most leases don't include maintenance.

I have never done a personal lease, but I can understand why people do it, all you're paying for is the depreciation and you get on a cycle of having a brand new car every three years, so maintenance is minimal and costs are fixed.

Personally I prefer to run slightly older cars and own them outright, but it's probably not a particularly economical way of doing it.


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## carlosfandangus (6 May 2020)

Dogtrousers said:


> Driving a car on PCP could be ... interesting.


I once watched a US police video about the same, this was when I was a prison officer/drug liaison officer at a conference, it was very scary, the officers put 10 rounds in the guy and he still kept coming!!!

Any way back slightly on track, a young lady i worked with last year couldnt afford the deposit to buy a house... well before the outbreak, her and her boyfriend rented, however they both had brand new cars £25 k plus each, they both paid at least £300 a month on finance, I wonder how they are managing at the moment?


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## screenman (6 May 2020)

Globalti said:


> Where do you live? On a Hebridean island?



I do not know any either come to think of it.


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## Gunk (6 May 2020)

Globalti said:


> When Mrs Gti inherited some money she decided to treat herself to a car and went out looking for ex-demonstrators at affordable prices. In one local garage the young sales guy, whose name was Adil, simply refused to accept that she wanted to pay cash. He was so keen to earn the commission from selling her PCP that it became embarrassing and we left. Adil is now known in our family as "No deal".
> 
> I think PCP will eventually become the new mis-selling scandal.



This is quite common, back in 2005 I bought Mrs Gunk a new Golf GTi, the only way I could get a chunk off the list price was to take the VW finance and then after I took delivery pay the lot off, bloody madness!


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## MrGrumpy (6 May 2020)

Gunk said:


> My experience of providing company cars is that PCP is actually cheaper monthly but you couldn't claim any of the VAT back (that may have changed now) so we always leased cars, usually 3x36 so 3 months down and a three year lease.
> 
> Maintenance is not automatically included with a lease, in fact most leases don't include maintenance.
> 
> ...



Leasing is something we will be looking at for the next car, I bought my own car on HP and I`m not sure I would do that again neither. Albeit I buy my own cars and keep them a long time.


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## JPBoothy (6 May 2020)

My check list when buying a used car is (1) can I get a bike in without dismantling it (2) can I flip the seats down to take rubbish to the tip and collect building materials, (3) has it got a good stereo and heater, and (4) is it good on fuel.. I have had new cars in the past, but now I have old cars (10+ yrs on average) with my one only piece of 'snobbery ' being that they have to be in good clean condition inside and out. It's amazing what nice cars you can pick up for relatively little money if you are patient. The plus points IMO of running older cars 'in addition to the obvious low purchase cost' are the low maintenance cost of not having to get a dealer service, cheap parts/tyres, not worry too much (although still annoying) if the tosser next to you dings your door at the shops and, if you do end up with a big repair cost you can just scrap it and start again..


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## Gravity Aided (6 May 2020)

Drago said:


> Prices of new bikes will rise. Demand is up, yet the factories have by and large been closed. Increased demand + reduced supply = elevated prices. Indeed, this phenomenon looks set to seriously spank new car prices as well.


I would like to see us go back to building bicycles in the States. They were mediocre bicycles, but safe machines, for the most part. I think current use of aluminum and improved accessories would make them quite better. I also think people are much more likely to opt for their buying to benefit local factories instead of overseas operators. It may cost a bit more. It may not. It all depends on who is willing to be sensible about these things. For a while, in the 1980's, we made some stellar cycling products over here. Great Britain made even better bicycles. I liked British cars as well, just not the engines. Well, maybe the cylinder heads.


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## Blue Hills (6 May 2020)

London mayor has announced that he is going to increase cycling by a factor of ten.
That must have some effect.
Much as I approve of cycling (of course) must admit to being a bit alarmed - there are some right nobbers on bikes.
Getting round London could become interesting.


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## Smudge (6 May 2020)

Gunk said:


> This is quite common, back in 2005 I bought Mrs Gunk a new Golf GTi, the only way I could get a chunk off the list price was to take the VW finance and then after I took delivery pay the lot off, bloody madness!



It still happens, it was the only way i could get the deal i wanted on the new car i bought 5 yrs ago. The dealership and the salesman get a kickback from the finance company. I did the same and paid it off within a month.


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## matticus (6 May 2020)

<unwatches>


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## jay clock (6 May 2020)

Globalti said:


> Here's a video about sales reps and badge anxiety. Just the first minute will be enough for you; that attitude still exists.
> 
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/CQsMFQZa8os



just flicked through that! Classic. I used to run a company car scheme at exactly that era and I can associate 100% with the style!


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## jay clock (6 May 2020)

Globalti said:


> Here's a video about sales reps and badge anxiety. Just the first minute will be enough for you; that attitude still exists.
> 
> 
> View: https://youtu.be/CQsMFQZa8os



I particularly liked the row of blokes in phone boxes and one walking past on a mobile


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## jay clock (6 May 2020)

screenman said:


> I do not know any either come to think of it.


I am not sure I do either and I live in an affluent area in the south east


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## SkipdiverJohn (6 May 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> There's the usual lads in black/graphite alloy Corsas and old Honda Civic-Rs with no baffles in their exhaust too- they're the ones who meet up in the evenings to drink and fool around.



Shocking stereotyping there! Even if there isan element of truth in it.


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## pjd57 (6 May 2020)

This time next year there will be shed loads of barely used second hand bikes for sale.


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## Archie_tect (6 May 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Shocking stereotyping there! Even if there isan element of truth in it.


? A gross assumption on your part Skip, I walk/ ride past them while they're messing about having a laugh - they do not live locally and there are up to ten dressed identically- black hoodies- with similar type of modified cars who meet up in different locations presumably pre-arranged by text or social media- not stereo-typing at all. You may claim they're having a bit of harmless fun but the speeds they get up to on narrow back roads while they show off means something will inevitably happen eventually. 

At least you can hear them coming...


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## JPBoothy (7 May 2020)

pjd57 said:


> This time next year there will be shed loads of barely used second hand bikes for sale.


I hope so, as I gave up buying new bikes years ago and have had some great ones from Ebay/Gumtree for a fraction of what they originally cost. A lot of cyclists want the latest spec/tech but, if that is not your thing (like me) there can be some crackers to be had.


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## MarkF (8 May 2020)

JPBoothy said:


> I hope so, as I gave up buying new bikes years ago and have had some great ones from Ebay/Gumtree for a fraction of what they originally cost. A lot of cyclists want the latest spec/tech but, if that is not your thing (like me) there can be some crackers to be had.



Not at the moment there isn't, these past few days I've widened my search for a canal bike. Anything half decent at a normal price is snapped up by traders/dealers and immediately re-listed at 2 or 3 times the purchase cost. Found a hybrid in Leeds yesterday, sent an email and voice message, the Gumtree advert said offers accepted but I said I'd pay the asking price and collect, no reply, today it's for sale in York...............I've given up.


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## Blue Hills (8 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> Not at the moment there isn't, these past few days I've widened my search for a canal bike. Anything half decent at a normal price is snapped up by traders/dealers and immediately re-listed at 2 or 3 times the purchase cost. Found a hybrid in Leeds yesterday, sent an email and voice message, the Gumtree advert said offers accepted but I said I'd pay the asking price and collect, no reply, today it's for sale in York...............I've given up.


What"s a canal bike?
Never really undestood why you sold that fine ridgeback you had.
Would have been ok along canalbanks?
I have also seen prices of old steel appear to go up.
Luckily i don"t really need any more at the mo, a wonder i got for £21 is in the topfloor back bedroom waiting to be built.


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## Gunk (8 May 2020)

Used Bromptons seem to be listed at around 10% more than a couple of months ago, and they seem to be selling.


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## MarkF (8 May 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> What"s a canal bike?
> Never really undestood why you sold that fine ridgeback you had.
> Would have been ok along canalbanks?
> I have also seen prices of old steel appear to go up.
> Luckily i don"t really need any more at the mo, a wonder i got for £21 is in the topfloor back bedroom waiting to be built.



A canal ride for me might be 45-50 miles, the drive train gets caked in grit so a canal bike is a thing l don't particularly care about.

I sold that Ridgeback on a whim and it was a bleedin stupid thing do do.


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## Blue Hills (8 May 2020)

MarkF said:


> I sold that Ridgeback on a whim and it was a bleedin stupid thing do do.



Yes was a thing of beauty from what i could see. I was interested in it i think when i first saw it for sale and you ended up getting it. Only reconciled i think because it was probably the wrong size for me.
Am sure you will find your canal bike in time. Can be little more than a good frame with worn out bits on it - that will put many buyers off. Get on old NOS alivio 8 speed chainset and plonk that on.


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## jay clock (8 May 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> London mayor has announced that he is going to increase cycling by a factor of ten.
> That must have some effect.
> Much as I approve of cycling (of course) must admit to being a bit alarmed - there are some right nobbers on bikes.
> Getting round London could become interesting.


I love a bike traffic jam in London. Coming up the Embankment (normally) there is a queue of 100+ bikes waiting at Big Ben. Great


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## Supersuperleeds (8 May 2020)

I think I've posted it somewhere, but my LBS are worried about 2021 bikes, they think if they get any stock they will be lucky.


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## Blue Hills (8 May 2020)

Supersuperleeds said:


> I think I've posted it somewhere, but my LBS are worried about 2021 bikes, they think if they get any stock they will be lucky.


Can i ask why?
Shipping problems?


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## Supersuperleeds (8 May 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> Can i ask why?
> Shipping problems?


They were saying they don't think they are going to start manufacturing on time


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## SkipdiverJohn (8 May 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> What"s a canal bike?



A bike that's been crashed into the canal by a rider who has consumed too much beer? 

A colleague of mine has had two canal bikes so far - both Apollos. First one was immersed in the Grand Union then got stolen soon after. Yes, someone nicked an Apollo! It wasn't locked at the time though...
It's replacement has also been immersed but still works - for the time being....


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## Blue Hills (8 May 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> A bike that's been crashed into the canal by a rider who has consumed too much beer?
> 
> A colleague of mine has had two canal bikes so far - both Apollos. First one was immersed in the Grand Union then got stolen soon after. Yes, someone nicked an Apollo! It wasn't locked at the time though...
> It's replacement has also been immersed but still works - for the time being....


I once nearly owned a canal bike. And joined it. On a london group ride up the lee valley i skidded and ended up half on the bank/half over the canal, with the bike still between my legs. Kinda like the end of the italian job. Luckily, gradually i managed to slowly shift the fulcrum of me and the bike.
Real canal bikes should i think have weights in the inside of the top tube that can be moved as required.


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## screenman (8 May 2020)

What some of you could ask yourself is what are you doing to encourage others to cycle more.


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## Smokin Joe (8 May 2020)

Looking on the Planet X website today their cheapest road bikes start at £1299. They used to have machines from five hundred quid up, just shows what this has done to prices.


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## SkipdiverJohn (8 May 2020)

The sensible course of action, for anyone who hasn't already got a bike, would be to sit out all this virus nonsense and wait until the supply situation improves and prices return to normal. I'm seeing tatty hacks going for the sort of money I won't even pay for decent bikes on the secondhand market. 
We also need to be vigilant ATM, even with low-value bikes.. Someone I know chased off some scumbag resembling Catweazle who was interfering with the lock on his beater the other day. It's only an old hi-tensile road frame with cottered steel 5-speed mechanicals, FFS - but even hack bikes will currently sell and the street price of illegal narcotics is high ATM.


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## Blue Hills (9 May 2020)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The sensible course of action, for anyone who hasn't already got a bike, would be to sit out all this virus nonsense and wait until the supply situation improves and prices return to normal. I'm seeing tatty hacks going for the sort of money I won't even pay for decent bikes on the secondhand market.
> We also need to be vigilant ATM, even with low-value bikes.. Someone I know chased off some scumbag resembling Catweazle who was interfering with the lock on his beater the other day. It's only an old hi-tensile road frame with cottered steel 5-speed mechanicals, FFS - but even hack bikes will currently sell and the street price of illegal narcotics is high ATM.



I know you are an expert on old bikes and their going rates skipdiver but can't help wondering how you know about the latter commodity.


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## PaulSB (9 May 2020)

Smokin Joe said:


> Looking on the Planet X website today their cheapest road bikes start at £1299. They used to have machines from five hundred quid up, just shows what this has done to prices.


There could be several reasons for this unless you are saying the exact same bike(s) have increased from £500 to £1299? For example:

Stock of cheaper bikes has sold out
Manufacturing has stopped/slowed
Planet X has made a business decision to no longer sell low cost bikes
A retailer not offering a particular product isn't an indicator that prices have increased.


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## SkipdiverJohn (9 May 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> I know you are an expert on old bikes and their going rates skipdiver but can't help wondering how you know about the latter commodity.



I wasn't exactly born yesterday and I do know people who take that shoot, even though there's more impurities than the stuff they actually think they are taking. One of the (very few) positives of the lockdown is there's far less obvious dealing on the street and the lack of travel means less gear is getting brought in. No-one wants to get stopped by the old bill with anything in their car either, so it's frustrating the whole process - for now.


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## Blue Hills (9 May 2020)

It was the current daily price i was asking about skipdiver but i suppose you kind of answered _ assuming that supplies to the street are down.


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## Jenkins (9 May 2020)

PaulSB said:


> There could be several reasons for this unless you are saying the exact same bike(s) have increased from £500 to £1299? For example:
> 
> Stock of cheaper bikes has sold out
> Manufacturing has stopped/slowed
> ...



Or, in the case of a couple of their models I've been keeping an eye on, they've suddenly whacked the price up by £200 overnight!


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## screenman (9 May 2020)

Jenkins said:


> Or, in the case of a couple of their models I've been keeping an eye on, they've suddenly whacked the price up by £200 overnight!



Who can blame them, no point in selling cheap if you cannot restock cheap.


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## rivers (9 May 2020)

There are still bargains to be had. After a few issues, I've just ordered an ultegra equipped cannondale slice TT for £1400 from TriUK. It's new old stock, and 6800 ultegra, but still a good deal


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## Daninplymouth (13 May 2020)

What do we think will happen with the 2021 ranges, as I have seen a few posts on here from people saying there lbs has little to no stock.
I’m looking to buy a synapse but was going to wait for 2 months as the new range should start being released and the 2020 bike will lose a few hundred £££. All the talk of no supply has me concerned and don’t know whether I should just order it up now at full retail, the carbon 105 is £2200 so I’d have thought bikes over the £1000 mark should avoid most of the people just buying up something to use


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## vickster (13 May 2020)

Daninplymouth said:


> What do we think will happen with the 2021 ranges, as I have seen a few posts on here from people saying there lbs has little to no stock.
> I’m looking to buy a synapse but was going to wait for 2 months as the new range should start being released and the 2020 bike will lose a few hundred £££. All the talk of no supply has me concerned and don’t know whether I should just order it up now at full retail, the carbon 105 is £2200 so I’d have thought bikes over the £1000 mark should adobos most of the people just buying up something to use


Some posts have said that the 2021 models might be delayed, in very short supply or non existent.
all mass produced bikes will depreciate to some degree so if you want a bike this year, I’d buy now and deal with any price drops that may or may not occur. If the 2020s are sold out if and when the 2021 arrive, they won’t be reduced! This year will not be like previous years for sure. 
You can always ask your LBS if they can do anything on the price, all they can say is no


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## confusedcyclist (14 May 2020)

Who still thinks there will be post-lockdown? I for one welcome a smaller economy with less wasteful motoring. The longer it lasts, the more likely we are to realise what fools we have been to organise our entire lives around an unsustainable growth dependent consumer economy that's also trashing the planet. However, I do feel for those whose livelihoods have vapourised seemingly overnight, the worry they must be going through.

As for the bicycle market, continued supply chain disruption will be a long term thing, unless every nation involved in those chains can crack the track, test, trace thing. There's never been a better time to relocalise essential industries like bicycle manufacturing, food, energy etc. If we don't, we'll have bigger things to worry about thaen bike shortages soon enough.


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## Smokin Joe (14 May 2020)

confusedcyclist said:


> There's never been a better time to relocalise essential industries like bicycle manufacturing, food, energy etc. If we don't, we'll have bigger things to worry about thaen bike shortages soon enough.


I agree, but if we start tomorrow that will be a very long term thing over the course of decades rather than years. It does show that globalisation has it's major drawbacks. In the event of an international crisis disrupting or stopping imports we have, for the sake of cheaper goods made by impoverished slaves in countries with horrible working and living conditions, lost our ability to control the supply of essentials.


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