# Paris-Nice *SPOILER*



## Flying_Monkey (6 Mar 2009)

Everyone's favourite early season stage race starts this weekend... yay! But who do you fancy?

Clearly, the just under 10km Stage 1 ITT is made for Bradley Wiggins, and David Millar always seems to fancy a stage win in this race, but beyond that there isn't much British interest - Jeremy Hunt is also riding for Cervelo though.

For the overall, I can't see much beyond Contador, though Cadel Evans (who has been inconsistent so far this season) and Jens Voight are there too. 

The stage I am most looking forward to is Stage 6, which is a proper mountain stage, with a mountain-top finish. Could be a classic, and we've got Euskaltel and other teams with some serious specialist climbers who haven't seen much action yet this year, so they will all be wanting a win.


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## Skip Madness (6 Mar 2009)

I am in agreement with you about stage 6 - the Montagne de Lure is the most difficult climb in the race, and it is nice to see a proper mountain-top finish at Paris - Nice.

I think Nicholas Roche could be a serious contender providing the early-season condition is there. The mountains are not too difficult and there is not a lot of time to be lost against the clock. Caisse d'Epragne can be considered in with a good chance of defending their title - Pereiro, Moreno and L.L. Sánchez are all in the squad. I am interested to see where Roman Kreuziger will be at this stage of the season, too. Contador is clearly already in great condition, but picking him for the win seems too easy! So I will go for David Moncoutié.

By the way, I am not sure about everyone's favourite early season stage race - I tend to prefer Tirreno - Adriatico.


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## Aperitif (6 Mar 2009)

Here's a link which I have been looking at...
http://www.steephill.tv/paris-nice/#rosters

I also notice that the Tirreno Adriatico starts on the 11th. Remember that dreadful wall that the riders went up last year - "holy sprockets Batman"!

http://www.steephill.tv/tirreno-adriatico/#2008


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## girofan (6 Mar 2009)

Davide Rebellin would be my choice if he's not riding Tirreno, but perhaps now that he's riding with Simoni for Diquigiovanni he has no choice in which early season stage race he participates in


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## Keith Oates (7 Mar 2009)

After reading todays report in Cyclingnews I think Roche fancies his chances but from what weve seen of Contador so far this year he must be the one I would choose. To see Millar and/or Wiggins do well in one or more of the stages would also make me happy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## rich p (7 Mar 2009)

Hard to see past Bertie but I'll have a punt on Gerdemann to get on the podium. He's moved to a new team to 'better' his chances.


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## Skip Madness (7 Mar 2009)

Yes, I like Linus. Why do a lot of people seem to dislike him so much?


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## Star (8 Mar 2009)

I've gotta go with Contador for the GC. 

Live coverage links on http://www.cyclingfans.com

Star


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## Noodley (8 Mar 2009)

Star said:


> I've gotta go with Contador for the GC.
> 
> Live coverage links on http://www.cyclingfans.com
> 
> Star



Any idea what time the live video streaming starts? I have been trying for the past half hour and still not on...and eurosport commentary seems to be ski jumping. Or at least something involving distances...


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## oxbob (8 Mar 2009)

sposed to start at 2pm, 1st link s geo restricted, 2nd showing davis cup tennis?


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## Flying_Monkey (8 Mar 2009)

I'm following it on text at cyclingnews.com. Wiggins has just gone to the top of the leaderboard with a great ride of 11.12, average over 50kmph - 12 seconds faster than Chavanel. It was still done in wet conditions however, which means it could be beaten by a later rider if the roads dry out significantly...


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## Noodley (8 Mar 2009)

looks like it's gonna have to be cyclingnews text, as no live video:

http://www.steephill.tv/paris-nice/#live


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## Flying_Monkey (8 Mar 2009)

It's started raining again, so I reckon it is now less likely than anyone will better Wiggins now. Nice ride by Karpets for third as it stands. You could say he was flying... 

... I'll get me coat.


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## Haitch (8 Mar 2009)

Noodley said:


> looks like it's gonna have to be cyclingnews text, as no live video:
> 
> http://www.steephill.tv/paris-nice/#live




Available live on Dutch TV here.


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## oxbob (8 Mar 2009)

Hoi Hoi thanks alan but again geo restricted!!


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## Domestique (8 Mar 2009)

oxbob said:


> sposed to start at 2pm, 1st link s geo restricted, 2nd showing davis cup tennis?



Well the tennis just ended, might be on next


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## Haitch (8 Mar 2009)

oxbob said:


> Hoi Hoi thanks alan but again geo restricted!!



Oh, sorry if I got your hopes up.


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## Radius (8 Mar 2009)

Live streaming works from the third link on the right on the cyclingfans page, called 'France 3'


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## roadiewill (8 Mar 2009)

waiting for eurosport to stop their coverage of the tiddlywink world cup...


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## yello (8 Mar 2009)

Hmmm....

From The beeb



> "If we had lost by one or two seconds we could have said he dropped them in a curve but seven seconds, it has to be physical," said Garmin-Slipstream sports director Lionel Marie.



Should I read anything into that? Or is it just my own bitter disappointment and/or cynicism?? Because, I must admit, I did think that 7 seconds was some some margin of victory.


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## Flying_Monkey (8 Mar 2009)

yello said:


> Hmmm....
> 
> From The beeb
> 
> Should I read anything into that? Or is it just my own bitter disappointment and/or cynicism?? Because, I must admit, I did think that 7 seconds was some some margin of victory.




Well Contador is either a supreme athlete or... 

Or possibly a bit of both.


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## Skip Madness (8 Mar 2009)

Seven seconds does not seem an extraordinary margin of victory over 9.3km to me.


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## Paul_L (8 Mar 2009)

i didn't follow this earlier, but was Wiggin's ride in the dry?


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## yello (8 Mar 2009)

Skip Madness said:


> Seven seconds does not seem an extraordinary margin of victory over 9.3km to me.



Maybe not... maybe I'm just pissed of because Wiggins got well and truly pipped at the post when none of the other prologue/short-course specialists put as much time into him that this self-declared non-specialist


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## Flying_Monkey (8 Mar 2009)

Paul_L said:


> i didn't follow this earlier, but was Wiggin's ride in the dry?



No, it was wet. It started to dry up a bit just after, but then started raining again - so pretty much everyone rode in the wet. 

And 7 seconds is a lot when Wiggins' ride was already so fast.


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## chfp77 (8 Mar 2009)

Conta,Conta,Conta!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Keith Oates (9 Mar 2009)

Contador is really on fire at the moment, if he keeps this up there will be no doubt who will lead the team during the TdF. Let's hope Millar can follow his ambition and be on the podium in Nice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Radius (9 Mar 2009)

Keith Oates said:


> Contador is really on fire at the moment, if he keeps this up there will be no doubt who will lead the team during the TdF. Let's hope Millar can follow his ambition and be on the podium in Nice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Unless he burns out even during _this_ race, which is what the French commentators were 'worried' about.


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## Keith Oates (9 Mar 2009)

I never thought about that way, it's a possibility but I would hope Bruyneel (sp) and his team will be able to guide him if that starts to happen. I did think it was strange when I read that Contador stated he was going into every race to win not for training,. As far as I know all the top riders use some of the races for training!!!!!!!!!


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## Radius (9 Mar 2009)

I'm sure they'll employ a couple of strong riders to carry him through the climbs and hot chases, like Hincapie and Cavendish in the last ToC


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## mondobongo (9 Mar 2009)

Did you see Contador's face on the finishing straight he was almost grinding his teeth in pain at how hard he was pushing it am not a fan but that was a big effort. Thought Millar sat up early for that left turn towards the end of the course. Yes I know it was pretty nasty and wet but I think he dropped precious time there. Hoping he's on form as I would like to see him on the podium as well.


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## Skip Madness (9 Mar 2009)

Flying_Monkey said:


> And 7 seconds is a lot when Wiggins' ride was already so fast.


Both Contador and Wiggins averaged faster speeds in the final time-trial of last year's Giro, and that was over 28.5km.


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## Flying_Monkey (9 Mar 2009)

Well, Haussler today - that boy is on fire this season! Otherwise a pretty uninteresting stage marred by a crash in the last 3km... the real fun starts tomorrow.


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## softpeadals (9 Mar 2009)

Flying_Monkey said:


> Well Contador is either a supreme athlete or...
> 
> Or possibly a bit of both.



Or what? 
Do you really think he would risk his season on what in the real world of the pro cyclist is a very minor objective?


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## Keith Oates (10 Mar 2009)

Cervélo TestTeam are certainly getting their riders in the results and mustt be well pleased with the results and exposure they've had so far. So far no real suprises in the race so we will have to wait and see how it develops!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## rich p (10 Mar 2009)

Keith Oates said:


> . So far no real suprises in the race!!!!!!!!!!!!



I'm not sure Wiggins would agree with that, Keith!

BTW, my pick Gerdeman to get on the podium is highly unlikely as he's not in the race after all. I'll have him as a top 3 pick in the Tirreno if he does it!


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## yello (10 Mar 2009)

softpeadals said:


> Do you really think he would risk his season on what in the real world of the pro cyclist is a very minor objective?



He's got to get every aspect of the preparation correct hasn't he? It's training isn't it?


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## Flying_Monkey (10 Mar 2009)

All pretty boring today too - small breakaway of four which will be caught in the final kilometres... bunch sprint and victory for...

who? Haussler again perhaps? The specialist sprinters won't like him getting two in a row on them. Brazil's Murilo Fischer hasn't won anything for a while... perhaps I should be supporting him at the moment.


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## yello (10 Mar 2009)

Pretty wet out there so I'm content to watch it on tele. I'm surprised how many of them haven't got rain jackets on, hardy lot these cyclists...

It's quite cool watching them ride the kind of roads I ride though. And following it on the map. They're around 150km due east of me as I type.

They're starting to stretch out a bit now, Rabobank taking charge, so it'll be interesting to see how it pans out in these conditions. It'll be a sprinters finish so pick one really.


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## yello (10 Mar 2009)

Contador might not be in yellow at the end of this one... he's looking pretty isolated at the mo!

Haussler working hard...

Contador back in the peleton.

Chavenel in yellow on the road, in a group of 8 40sec up on the peleton, that could change with 15km to go.

Gap up to 1m with 12 to go. Flecha in the lead group - his stage perhaps??


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## Flying_Monkey (10 Mar 2009)

yello said:


> Contador might not be in yellow at the end of this one... he's looking pretty isolated at the mo!
> 
> Haussler working hard...
> 
> ...



Yes, I was wrong - it is now very interesting indeed. Rabobank showing that the Dutch teams know all about how to ride in the wind! 

There's some strong riders in that new front group - I don't think they will be caught. As to who wins... well I would love it to be Flecha. But there's Burghardt, Chavanel, Auge, Garate, Langeveld.... they are all capable of taking it. Burghardt would be my bet if I had to, but please let it be Flecha...


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## Flying_Monkey (10 Mar 2009)

... although Burghardt is isolated and Flecha has two team mates there... and Burghardt has just got a puncture! Bad timing!


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## yello (10 Mar 2009)

Great finish! It looked like Flecha... then, at the death, stage and yellow to Chavanel.


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## Flying_Monkey (10 Mar 2009)

The way Flecha tried an escape... but got caught. I guess he knew he wouldn't win in a bunch sprint, he went again... a long way out... and Chavanel took it off him on the line. Devastating.


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## Keith Oates (11 Mar 2009)

It has made the race interesting and with Contador missing the break he has some work to do getting that time back. The hills are coming but over 1 minute is a lot of catching up to do. Millar's aim for a podium also looks less likely but he's doing well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## rich p (11 Mar 2009)

Wiggins has jacked it
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/11032009/58/wiggins-pulls-paris-nice.html

to attend the funeral of his wife's grandmother. 

Perhaps the fact that he lost a load of time yesterday and was reputedly devestated to not win the ITT might have been a factor.


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## oxbob (11 Mar 2009)

Whoohoo its getting better each day, van de velde today (33yrs old) hope for us old buggers yet!


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## Flying_Monkey (11 Mar 2009)

oxbob said:


> Whoohoo its getting better each day, van de velde today (33yrs old) hope for us old buggers yet!



Good result for him - didn't he have a bad crash in the TT? 

I am sure he has a good reason for withdrawing but I think Wiggins' desire does have to be questioned in general...


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## mr Mag00 (11 Mar 2009)

i am enjoying watching this


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## oxbob (11 Mar 2009)

Flying_Monkey said:


> Good result for him - didn't he have a bad crash in the TT?
> 
> I am sure he has a good reason for withdrawing but I think Wiggins' desire does have to be questioned in general...


I agree FM i think wiggins should stick to track racing, otherwise he is going to slip back to the drink again i think. shame really


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## Dave5N (11 Mar 2009)

oxbob said:


> I agree FM i think wiggins should stick to track racing, otherwise he is going to slip back to the drink again i think. shame really




Nonsense. It's early days yet. He's class and will show it as the season progresses.


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## Keith Oates (12 Mar 2009)

Wiggins did well in the Prologue and there was no shame in losing out to Contador on that day, he proved he was the best of the rest which should be satisfying. 
The race itself is now getting very exciting and whoever pulls on the yellow in Nice will have had to work hard for the honour. Contador is showing that he's keeping his promise and working for the win and not just working to get fitness. I still think he can make it, but the climbs today (12th march) will certainly be a tough test for all of the contendors!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Keith Oates (13 Mar 2009)

Jérémy Roy took the stage 5 win, this no doubt suprised a few but the real story is that there was no change at the top of the GC listing. Perhaps today (Stage 6) with the finish on top of La Montagne de Lure will see some changes. Millar is still in 7th spot but the podium looks a long way off at the moment.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Landslide (13 Mar 2009)

I caught the last 30-40km highlights on TV last night, beautiful scenery in the gorges, and what a finish! He had some space to spare at the end, but the camera perspective looking along the finishing straight made it look like the chasers were right on Roy's wheel!


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## mr Mag00 (13 Mar 2009)

i missedlast night for ER.

is it the mountain stage again today?


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## Flying_Monkey (13 Mar 2009)

mr Mag00 said:


> i missedlast night for ER.
> 
> is it the mountain stage again today?



It is the best mountain stage today! With a proper mountain-top finish on La Montagne de Lure... and the field is pretty much altogether as they come to the bottom of that final climb. It is going to be a cracking finish...


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## rich p (13 Mar 2009)

It'll be interesting to see how strong Astana are


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## mondobongo (13 Mar 2009)

Plenty of excitement leading up to the finish and a good win by Contador. I have been impressed with what stages I have seen of how hard Contador is riding not a fan yet but he is winning me over.


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## Flying_Monkey (13 Mar 2009)

That was some seriously good climbing. Put paid to Millar's chances too. He just hasn't got that 'little bit extra' any more... mind you he has never been a climber.


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## Keith Oates (14 Mar 2009)

It's early in the season but Contador looks in a class of his own at the moment, the way he took off on the final climb of the day was very impressive. It's going to take some hard racing by the others to get the yellow jersey off him now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Flying_Monkey (14 Mar 2009)

Today's stage is a really tough bastard with lots of climbs... a really well-organised team mountain-oriented team could break Contador if they really went for it. I don't think it will happen though


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## yello (14 Mar 2009)

Flying_Monkey said:


> a really well-organised team mountain-oriented team could break Contador if they really went for it



A team of dope testers perhaps


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## Flying_Monkey (14 Mar 2009)

yello said:


> A team of dope testers perhaps



Witchhunters-Highground?


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## Flying_Monkey (14 Mar 2009)

It's all gone a bit mental at the front but we seem to have a seriously elite group coming together - Contador, Sanchez, Colom, Voigt, Chavanel, Schleck.

Contador is covering everything at the moment - and there are a lot of attacks - but I fancy Voigt for the stage...


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## yello (14 Mar 2009)

If there's dope in those veins then it doesn't bother me who discovers it; have they axes to grind or otherwise. 

Nah, fair's fair. The guy has trained hard. Maybe he's clean and focused. Maybe he's out to show Astana who's boss. Maybe. Let's see how he performs today.


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## Flying_Monkey (14 Mar 2009)

But Sanchez has now gone ahead and opened up a gap. It might be enough... especially as no-one seems too keen to help Contador.


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## Flying_Monkey (14 Mar 2009)

This could be serious as Sanchez is only 73 seconds behind in the overall. He's got 40 seconds and rising on Contador now...


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## Flying_Monkey (14 Mar 2009)

This is turning into a real classic, edge-of-your-seat stage. It is going to come down to seconds... and Sanchez is still getting those seconds at the moment.


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## Flying_Monkey (14 Mar 2009)

People are going past Contador - Schleck, Chavanel - is he broken?


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## Flying_Monkey (14 Mar 2009)

Sanchez is in virtual yellow (if you include the winner's 10-second bonus)...


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## Flying_Monkey (14 Mar 2009)

Contador has gone!

Caught and dropped by Evans' group too!

He is human after all.


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## Flying_Monkey (14 Mar 2009)

Sanchez takes it! Awesome win. Now how much by?...


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## yello (14 Mar 2009)

Blimey! He's cooked!! They're passing him at will!


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## oxbob (14 Mar 2009)

The bonk man!


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## Flying_Monkey (14 Mar 2009)

He's lost 2.52 on Sanchez today.

Contador had better learn from that or it will be no TdF for him this year! He was on his own, no team to speak of, bad feeding strategy...


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## yello (14 Mar 2009)

Flying_Monkey said:


> no team to speak of



Interesting that. Does not bode well. Pretty much the same story yesterday but he didn't need them then.


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## oxbob (14 Mar 2009)

So what will happen when LA comes back to the team ?


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## Skip Madness (14 Mar 2009)

What is it about Luis León Sánchez? Whenever he really goes for it we always get Paris-Nice's most exciting moments. That was another splendid stage, the best in years. Seeing Sánchez pick the opportune moment and grind out the gap and then watching the other front riders work Contador over was amazing.

The interesting thing about Contador - and more to the point Astana - is that he was isolated throughout last year's Giro but still had the class to be able to win on his own. But stages like today are always likely to come along once in a while, and if he had a team-mate with him today like Popovych or Zubeldia he could very easily still be in yellow. After Contador, Popovych was the highest placed rider for Astana today at 7.20 down. Then it was Navarro and Zubeldia at 11.13. You might think, "Well, it is only Paris-Nice, not one of the big three," but it is clear that Contador has really been going for it this week. Look at the line-ups that Astana, Quickstep, Caisse d'Epargne and Saxo Bank brought to this race - not much difference in quality. But look how much better those last three have protected their top riders - especially Quickstep, relatively speaking - than Astana have.

It is important not to get too carried away by Contador having one off day, but nevertheless Lance and Levi must be looking at this year's Tour with a serious eye on yellow right now. Contador should remain the favourite, reasonably speaking, but doubts may creep in.


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## Noodley (14 Mar 2009)

Skip Madness said:


> It is important not to get too carried away by Contador having one off day....



cyclingnews is reporting Contador says he was suffering from hunger knock.


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## Noodley (14 Mar 2009)

oxbob said:


> The bonk man!



Oops, misssed that one  Sorry.


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## rich p (14 Mar 2009)

I suspect he was, seeing just how badly he went. Absolutely everyone went past him so he must have been suffering.


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## Keith Oates (15 Mar 2009)

Contador says he forgot to eat and drink correctly in the early part of the stage and that resulted in the hunger knock, it just shows how important it is to get everything right and under control from start to finish. He really does have a mountain to climb if he wants the yellow back on the final day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## ColinJ (15 Mar 2009)

Keith Oates said:


> Contador says he forgot to eat and drink correctly in the early part of the stage and that resulted in the hunger knock, it just shows how important it is to get everything right and under control from start to finish. *He really does have a mountain to climb if he wants the yellow back on the final day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*


Well he literally does have a mountain to climb - the Col de la Porte, but unfortunately for him it isn't a huge one and it comes too early in the stage for it to be decisive. He surely isn't going to gain enough time on the ascent and descent of Col d'Eze?


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## Noodley (15 Mar 2009)

He certainly gave it a good bloody go!


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## roadiewill (15 Mar 2009)

so who won the race overall then?


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## Flying_Monkey (15 Mar 2009)

He did indeed give it a good go, but he had lost too much. Didn't even get on the podium in the end, which was Sanchez, Schleck, Chavanel... Millar didn't finish along with loads of others. Two very tough days to finish this race - no mere city centre parade!


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## mondobongo (15 Mar 2009)

Pretty exciting finish to what has been a good race shame that the highlights were only on for 30 minutes rather than the hour.


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## yello (15 Mar 2009)

Forgot to eat and drink! *Forgot*! That's an astonishingly unlikely/amateurish mistake for any pro, let alone someone defending yellow and preparing to take the TdF. There is surely more to it that simply forgetting! 

Still, whatever the truth, he did put in one heck of an effort - so he can't be faulted for not trying.


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## Keith Oates (16 Mar 2009)

Sanchez winning is good for him but the impressive performance for me was 
Contador. He messed up on the penultimate stage when he bonked but still fought hard on the last day when he must have known he had little chance of winning the race. I suspect he will have a few more fans after this race!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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