# Where will bike design/technology be in 20/30 years time



## johnnyb47 (1 Apr 2017)

Hi.
Bike technology has really taken off over the last few years. Up until the mid 90s bike design was very slow ,but suddenly it seemed to gather a huge pace in new ideas and designs. Gone where the straight tubed steel bikes and in came aluminium frames sporting complex curves. Suspension bikes became the norm on mountain bikes and then carbon fibre frame started to make an entrance to the mass market offering ultra light frames and in designs the we could only dream of having only just a few years back. Components too ,have gone through an amazing revolution over the last few years. Electronic shifters, carbon wheels and disc brakes to name a few. Now electric bikes are making way in leaps and bounds. All these new innovations seem to have come around relatively recently, compared to back from the 70,s / 80,s era when bike technology stayed fairly static. With the pace of things moving at the moment i wonder what the bike will be like in the future. Will Carbon frames be superceeded by something even better. I wonder where components design will take us. Will electric bikes become a common sight on our roads and take over the more conventional bike..
Saying all this though i personally think all this bike technology will bottom out at some point. You can only go so far before perfection is met and when the humble bike has met it's pinnacle of efficiency. I do hope that bikes don't become over complicated works of art where the Sunday tinkering around with them becomes a thing of the past because of there complex designs like the modern car. ( maybe I'm getting a little carried away with that one )
but let's just hope they don't become a product that becomes a none serviceable unit like so many things have become this day and age.


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## Smokin Joe (1 Apr 2017)

No technology bottoms out. Progress may slow to a crawl when the limits of what is possible at a given time are reached, but then someone comes up with one or more innovations out of the blue and the whole thing starts to accelerate again.

Predicting more than a few years ahead is very difficult though. I can see automatic transmission being standard on most bikes, something the shift to electronics make very easy.

One thing I can guarantee however, every single advance will be fiercely resisted by the usual "What do we need that for, it will never work, it will break and leave you stranded, Merckx didn't have it etc etc" brigade. With the exception of the Merckx reference, the rest of that phrase was copyrighted during the introduction of the pneumatic tyre.


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## S-Express (1 Apr 2017)

History is a good predictor of the future. Practically bugger-all has changed in bike design in 30 years (or even 100 years), so don't expect too much to change over the next 30 years.


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## tyred (1 Apr 2017)

I don't see that very much has changed at all in real terms. Different materials and more gears but that has come at the expense of durability in some respects.

They are better at marketing today to convince people they need to keep upgrading things while my 34 year old three speed soldiers on year after year with minimal maintenance or expenditure.


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## Yellow Saddle (1 Apr 2017)

Yes, of course electric bikes will become a common sight. Battery technology will see to that and every fat kids' Christmas-box BMX will be battery powered.
However, on competitive pedal bikes the following will happen.

1) They will re-invent the oval chainring
2) They will re-invent the saddle and come up with innovative stuff like slots and pressure zones and stuff.
3) The chain will still be open to the elements but city bikes will be belt-driven, I hope.
4) They will come up with a reason to re-introduce FDs and triple cranks.
5) They will not use common sense to solve the BB problem.
6) They will invent stuff to work with batteries and wires. I can't even begin to imagine the level of stupidity where wires and batteries can go - perhaps bearing heat sensors.
7) The Campagnolo wheel bearing patent will have expired and Shimano wheels will have replaceable bearing races.
8) The Horst Link suspension arrangement patent will have expired and all bikes will sadly become Specializeds with different badges.
9) Most bikes will have disc brakes.
10). Wheels will mostly be carbon but the retro "steel is real" brigade will still ride aluminium, or as the new tech pseudo-savvy will refer to it: 606X alloy."
11) Hipsters will make grey hair fashionable.
12) Bicycle computers will all sync with watches and implants and no-one will be happy.My Cat-eye 4-function speedometer will be on its third 2032 battery.
13) They will find a way of working the word nano, or perhaps even some real nano-technology into a bike's tyres.
14) Punctures will still be a result of superstition, not luck and sharp objects.
15) Supplement and nutrition companies will still be turning perfectly healthy individuals into type II diabetics, albeit quicker than today.
16) There will be so many rules and regulations on riding "open cell vehicles" on the road, you'll practically have to kit out like George Osborne on TV inspecting a building site. There will be so much high-viz on the roads that only the people in camo will be truly seen.
17) Carradice will still be making stupid, hard, leaky, floppy bicycle luggage and sell to the gullible.
18) People will still be breaking in Brooks saddles with their bare arses. However, the rails will be sprung nono-tube carbon painted to look like real steel.
19) There will be so much data collected on each little ride that bikes will require Petabyte-big solid state memory chips to be plugged in to a socket on the headset top cap.
20) They will still tell us that polyester wicks armpit sweat so nicely that it will never stink.
21) Bikes will be so light, stiff and strong that special recycling plants have to be erected to crush old ones.
22) Luckily beer will still be the best recovery drink.


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## johnnyb47 (1 Apr 2017)

Brilliant post buddy :-))


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## Drago (1 Apr 2017)

I doubt anything will get any "better". 29'ers came into fashion, and then fell out of fashion in a very short period of time, so perhaps the recurring trends will simply come around quicker.


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## raleighnut (1 Apr 2017)

Steel Frame. .....................Check
Brooks saddle....................Check
Carradice saddlebag..........Check
Suicide brake levers...........Check
Downtube shifters...............Check
Aluminium rims...................Check
That'll do me for another 30yrs


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## EltonFrog (1 Apr 2017)

@Yellow Saddle funny post. 

I wonder why belt drive hasn't been more popular?


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## raleighnut (1 Apr 2017)

CarlP said:


> @Yellow Saddle funny post.
> 
> I wonder why belt drive hasn't been more popular?


It's cos people have read his book about chains and now know how wonderful they are.


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## CanucksTraveller (1 Apr 2017)

There will in all likelihood be two triangles, and two circles. It was the perfect design a hundred years ago, it'll still be the perfect design in another 20. 
Carbon fibre has finally allowed for a massive step change and a wholesale redesign of the bicycle frame, but I don't think we're ready for how that might look yet. Innovative designs will still be seen as a bit whacky until someone finds a way to mass market whacky so it becomes the norm.


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## classic33 (1 Apr 2017)

CarlP said:


> @Yellow Saddle funny post.
> 
> I wonder why belt drive hasn't been more popular?


Possibly

Derailleurs cannot be used, so an internal-gear hub is used if multiple gear ratios are required.
The belt cannot be taken apart as a chain can, so a frame must be able to accommodate the belt by having an opening in the rear triangle or an elevated chain stay.
Belts come in limited selection of lengths, which must be accommodated in the design of the frame.
Belt-driven bicycles and their repair or replacement parts are scarcer at shops than bicycles with conventional chain.
Front and rear pulleys or sprockets must be well aligned to avoid excessive friction and wear. A chain is more flexible in this respect.
Compared to a chain, belts are typically run at a much higher tension. This is done in order to avoid skipping of the belt while in use. However, high belt tensions can reduce the life expectancy of the bearings in the bottom bracket, as well as in the rear hub.
First-generation pulleys with dual guides had problems with snow becoming compacted and trapped in the pulley (up to complete inoperability in some cases). Second generation (one guide, wheel side) and third generation (center guide) improve upon the design.
*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt-driven_bicycle*


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## jefmcg (1 Apr 2017)

Kids born this year will be lovingly restoring genuine carbon fibre frames, "just like the one my dad used to ride when I was little".


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## KnackeredBike (1 Apr 2017)

jefmcg said:


> Kids born this year will be lovingly restoring genuine carbon fibre frames, "just like the one my dad used to ride when I was little".


Are you sure they won't just be papering over the cracks?


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## iateyoubutler (1 Apr 2017)

I don`t care, I`ll still have the bikes/kit that I have now!


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## CanucksTraveller (1 Apr 2017)

To escape from two triangles and two circles, we'd need more eccentric, free thinking designers like Mike Burrows, and we need the industry to back them. No easy task. But if it were to happen, you'd get bikes like this on general sale.


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## StuAff (1 Apr 2017)

CanucksTraveller said:


> To escape from two triangles and two circles, we'd need more eccentric, free thinking designers like Mike Burrows, and we need the industry to back them. No easy task. But if it were to happen, you'd get bikes like this on general sale.
> 
> View attachment 345164


Which would be a very good thing.


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## Dogtrousers (1 Apr 2017)

Here's what they thought was coming back in 1983
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id...TAhUmOsAKHXkHAM4Q6AEIPzAD#v=onepage&q&f=false


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## raleighnut (1 Apr 2017)

jefmcg said:


> Kids born this year will be lovingly restoring genuine carbon fibre frames, "just like the one my dad used to ride when I was little".


The ones that haven't melted in the rain?


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## Markymark (1 Apr 2017)

Hover bikes.


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## StuAff (1 Apr 2017)

Dogtrousers said:


> Here's what they thought was coming back in 1983
> https://books.google.co.uk/books?id...TAhUmOsAKHXkHAM4Q6AEIPzAD#v=onepage&q&f=false


Alex Moulton always was ahead of his time.


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## Ian H (1 Apr 2017)

E-bikes are merely the second-coming of the moped. All bicycle innovation has to account for weight and utility.


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## classic33 (1 Apr 2017)

Markymark said:


> Hover bikes.


Try keeping up down there
*Hover bikes available to pre-order.
*
_Video became available after the thread

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpko3CPHonQ
_


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## S-Express (1 Apr 2017)

CanucksTraveller said:


> and we need the industry to back them. No easy task. But if it were to happen, you'd get bikes like this on general sale.



Recumbents are already on general sale though...


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## classic33 (1 Apr 2017)

Dogtrousers said:


> Here's what they thought was coming back in 1983
> https://books.google.co.uk/books?id...TAhUmOsAKHXkHAM4Q6AEIPzAD#v=onepage&q&f=false





StuAff said:


> Alex Moulton always was ahead of his time.


30 years after he'd built his first one.


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## CanucksTraveller (1 Apr 2017)

S-Express said:


> Recumbents are already on general sale though...
> 
> View attachment 345165



Yes, but they're fairly expensive, niche, and still seen as a bit whacky. Which goes back to my first point.


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## S-Express (1 Apr 2017)

CanucksTraveller said:


> Yes, but they're fairly expensive, niche, and still seen as a bit whacky. Which goes back to my first point.



That's probably not going to change though, given that recumbents have been around for a long time as well. The UCI banned them from competition in 1934, which is going back a bit now...


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## midlife (1 Apr 2017)

Convergent Evolution 

Shaun


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## Pat "5mph" (1 Apr 2017)

Electric powered cargo bikes, lots of them: all major shops will have them available for a minimal rental fee.
You go shopping on your bike, leave your bike at the shop's secure bike parking, ride home with the cargo bike.


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## classic33 (1 Apr 2017)

S-Express said:


> That's probably not going to change though, given that recumbents have been around for a long time as well. The UCI banned them from competition in 1934, which is going back a bit now...


One from 1902.


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## classic33 (1 Apr 2017)

Pat "5mph" said:


> *Electric powered cargo bikes*, lots of them: all major shops will have them available for a minimal rental fee.
> You go shopping on your bike, leave your bike at the shop's secure bike parking, ride home with the cargo bike.





OR


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## classic33 (2 Apr 2017)

[QUOTE 4745674, member: 9609"]in 20 to 30 years time I'm hoping they will be autonomous, just set them away by themselves and experience the video feed in a VR helmet[/QUOTE]
Would that mean not leaving home/setting out in the first place?


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## Colin_P (2 Apr 2017)

Yellow Saddle said:


> 16) There will be so many rules and regulations on riding "open cell vehicles" on the road, you'll practically have to kit out like George Osborne on TV inspecting a building site. There will be so much high-viz on the roads that only the people in camo will be truly seen.



Sadly I think that is going to be the area where most change will occur.

But hopefully in a positive way and even more hopefully it won't involve cyclists in any way more than wearing some sort of transponder so vehicle collision avoidance systems can see them.

Lets hope the ministry of silly hats don't get their way.


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## classic33 (2 Apr 2017)

[QUOTE 4745691, member: 9609"]absolutely - in 20 or 30 years time they will have stuff built into the virtual reality helmet that makes you feel hungry, so when the bike gets back you will feel extra hungry and enjoy eating lots of cake & cream.[/QUOTE]
I'd settle for actually getting on a bike/trike/quad and riding it somewhere. Anytime


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## classic33 (2 Apr 2017)

Colin_P said:


> Sadly I think that is going to be the area where most change will occur.
> 
> But hopefully in a positive way and even more hopefully it won't involve cyclists in any way more than wearing some sort of transponder so vehicle collision avoidance systems can see them.
> 
> Lets hope the ministry of silly hats don't get their way.


What do you do when the batteries(built in) run down, at night though?

Will cheap, possibly dodgy, imports be available?


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## Colin_P (2 Apr 2017)

classic33 said:


> What do you do when the batteries(built in) run down, at night though?
> 
> Will cheap, possibly dodgy, imports be available?



That remains to be seen.

We are probably on the cusp of being able to implement it already as the technology already exists. All that is needed is a common platform of avoidance protocols vehicle collision systems and someone like Garmin to make either a stand alone transponder or one built into a gps computer.


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## Nigeyy (2 Apr 2017)

Probably at least one of the following to be commonplace:

Anti lock brakes
All wheel drive
Some drive chain improvement -maybe belt, dunno 

Kind of less bike related, but also some kind electronic integration -maybe tracking device, or direct transfer of information.

Given the last 30 years have given us index shifting, suspension, new materials and disc brakes for mainstream cycling (sure I'm forgetting some) it certainly wouldn't surprise me. And yes, while you could still cycle with no problem 30 years ago, I'll be the first to admit I think we have seen some nice improvements.


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## GlenBen (2 Apr 2017)

[QUOTE 4745674, member: 9609"]in 20 to 30 years time I'm hoping they will be autonomous, just set them away by themselves and experience the video feed in a VR helmet[/QUOTE]
Sadly, I bet there are people around who think this is a great idea and would take up cycling as soon as its released.


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## Drago (2 Apr 2017)

S-Express said:


> Recumbents are already on general sale though...
> 
> View attachment 345165



Maybe we'll see Sir Clive on EastEnders too?


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## Welsh wheels (2 Apr 2017)

Electronically shifting gears will be on all bikes
Most bike frames will be made of graphene.
Built-in power meters and heart rate monitors will be on all bikes


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## classic33 (2 Apr 2017)

Colin_P said:


> That remains to be seen.
> 
> We are probably on the cusp of being able to implement it already as the technology already exists. All that is needed is a common platform of avoidance protocols vehicle collision systems and someone like Garmin to make either a stand alone transponder or one built into a gps computer.


Already out there, as a "wearable device". Just battery life is somewhat limited.

Compare say a Nokia 3310 and any of the current smartphones

Battery was replacable, now sealed in.
Battery life between charges, days now a day. Smaller battery, but more is being asked of it, so it doesn't last as long.

Solve that last part first, before placing any electronic system into a bike build.


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## classic33 (2 Apr 2017)

Welsh wheels said:


> Electronically shifting gears will be on all bikes
> Most bike frames will be made of graphene.
> Built-in power meters and heart rate monitors will be on all bikes


How about no gear levers, but keeping gears?


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## arch684 (2 Apr 2017)

classic33 said:


> How about no gear levers, but keeping gears?


Voice activated gear changes but could be a problem with my scottish accent


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## classic33 (2 Apr 2017)

arch684 said:


> Voice activated gear changes but could be a problem with my scottish accent


Different school of thought at work, and on the brakes as well.


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## Alan O (2 Apr 2017)

[QUOTE 4745674, member: 9609"]in 20 to 30 years time I'm hoping they will be autonomous, just set them away by themselves and experience the video feed in a VR helmet[/QUOTE]
Why would you need to even do that? All we need is high-resolution Google Cycle View (covering cycle paths and trails too) and all possible routes will be there for us to relive at our own speed, without sending anything outdoors at all.

(I know, it's sad, but I've recently been revisiting some of my old routes from my student days on Street View - and surprisingly little has changed).

Alan


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## Colin_P (2 Apr 2017)

classic33 said:


> Already out there, as a "wearable device". Just battery life is somewhat limited.
> 
> Compare say a Nokia 3310 and any of the current smartphones
> 
> ...



I'm not thinking of a wearable device although a transponder that car collision avoidance systems could see could easily fit in one, I'm thinking more along the lines of the current fancy pants garmin bike lights that adjust their brightness as a vehicle approaches you and also provides a proximity display on the gps unit screen.

I don't think battery life will be an issue as batteries are likely to get better and as now you'd recharge your lights / garmin before a ride.

Thinking some more about a safety system such as this, it could put an almost immediate end and greatly reduce (obviously older vehicles wouldn't have it) cyclist death and injuries due to vehicle collision and the best bit would be most of the tech would be in the vehicles. It would only require a minor tweak to what many cars have already in the way of collision avoidance systems. Currently many cars have lane assistance, they can self park, they have backup cameras, they will apply the brakes in the event of an imminent collision etc.


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## Drago (2 Apr 2017)

Fundamentally, In don't think bikes will change greatly. Hop off a time machine in 30 years and hop on a bike I'm pretty sure it won't feel much different.


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## subaqua (2 Apr 2017)

arch684 said:


> Voice activated gear changes but could be a problem with my scottish accent



View: https://youtu.be/sAz_UvnUeuU


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## jefmcg (2 Apr 2017)

I think the biggest changes might come from self driving cars and 3D printers.


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## jefmcg (2 Apr 2017)

Colin_P said:


> But hopefully in a positive way and even more hopefully it won't involve cyclists in any way more than wearing some sort of transponder so vehicle collision avoidance systems can see them.



This would be a terrible idea. If cars rely on a transponder to "see" you, then a flat battery would mean you were invisible on the roads. And would pedestrians have to wear them too, or would they just be invisible? I'd rather have helmet compulsion than transponder compulsion.


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## Drago (2 Apr 2017)

jefmcg said:


> I think the biggest changes might come from self driving cars and 3D printers.



Self driving 3 printers? It'll never catch on.


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## Colin_P (2 Apr 2017)

jefmcg said:


> This would be a terrible idea. If cars rely on a transponder to "see" you, then a flat battery would mean you were invisible on the roads. And would pedestrians have to wear them too, or would they just be invisible? I'd rather have helmet compulsion than transponder compulsion.



It would be as part of a vehicles secondary collision avoidance system, the primary being the driver! I cannot see any negatives to this and would much rather it existed than having to wear a silly hat. 

Cars already do this and rely primarily on radar. Thinking some more about it, a benign transponder such as those that have existed for over twenty years in car key fob as part of the immobilser could be used. All the tech would be in the vehicle which would be constantly scanning its environment and if such a transponder "lights up" the radar. The only thing needed on the bike would be a tiny capsule transponder, no batteries and nothing for the cyclist to worry about forgetting.

The possibilities of such a system could;

1, Make left hand turn lorry crushing a thing of the past, especially if such vehicles were fitted with enhances scanners / radars.
2, Close passes, the vehicle would either slam its brakes on or if room apply some steering input.
3, T bones at junctions, a vehicle simply wouldn't move out from a junction if a cycle is in close promity / approaching.
4, Safer filtering, again on the same principals.

The down side will probably be drivers becomming more complacent and taking more risks relying on the car to sort problems out.

But, all this is coming regardless with self driving cars, which should, the should is a big one, make things safer all round. If a tiny little chip on the bike makes it safer still then I'm all for it.


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## davidphilips (2 Apr 2017)

Only a thought but if the numbers of cars on the road keep increasing the way they have over the last 30 years, how safe would it be to cycle?

My own thoughts on cycle changes would be expensive bikes becoming much more expensive and cheap bikes becoming almost use once and bin/recycle.


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## classic33 (2 Apr 2017)

Drago said:


> Self driving 3 printers? It'll never catch on.


Given your current avatar, how about a 3D printed pizza?



HD 3d printing pizza on a contract from NASA HD


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## jefmcg (2 Apr 2017)

davidphilips said:


> Only a thought but if the numbers of cars on the road keep increasing the way they have over the last 30 years, how safe would it be to cycle?


Very safe. Only danger will be a dooring, as the cars won't be moving.


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## Drago (2 Apr 2017)

I hope energy will be so expensive that it impacts on fools making needless journeys. Its amazing what suddenly ceases to be an "essential" journey when people can't afford the fuel.


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## classic33 (2 Apr 2017)

jefmcg said:


> Very safe. Only danger will be a dooring, as the cars won't be moving.





And it's a design that Google is looking at. Relaunched last year.


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## jefmcg (2 Apr 2017)

classic33 said:


> View attachment 345343
> 
> And it's a design that Google is looking at. Relaunched last year.


That's no good. How are the passengers going to get out when there is a pedestrian or cyclist adhered to the front of the car?


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## classic33 (2 Apr 2017)

jefmcg said:


> That's no good. How are the passengers going to get out when there is a pedestrian or cyclist adhered to the front of the car?
> 
> View attachment 345358



They come with a built in escape hatch, through the roof. No joke.


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## jefmcg (2 Apr 2017)

Colin_P said:


> The down side will probably be drivers becomming more complacent and taking more risks relying on the car to sort problems out.


Well, yes. That's my point. And it's a huge downside. If you think you can rely on the car to tell you if there is anything to the left of your vehicle, a lot of drivers won't look. And already too many drivers don't bother looking.


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## classic33 (2 Apr 2017)

Nigeyy said:


> Probably at least one of the following to be commonplace:
> 
> Anti lock brakes
> All wheel drive
> ...


Anti lock brakes: 2009
All wheel drive: 2006, New Jeep® Rubicon MTB($1,999.99). Electric wheel(s) in the front and it becomes all whee drive.
Some drive chain improvement -maybe belt, dunno

Tracking: Already possible through mobile phones.


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## Nigeyy (3 Apr 2017)

But commonplace now?



classic33 said:


> Anti lock brakes: 2009
> All wheel drive: 2006, New Jeep® Rubicon MTB($1,999.99). Electric wheel(s) in the front and it becomes all whee drive.
> Some drive chain improvement -maybe belt, dunno
> 
> Tracking: Already possible through mobile phones.


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## Drago (3 Apr 2017)

jefmcg said:


> And already too many drivers don't bother looking.



Indeed. Most drivers let their indicators do the looking for them.


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## nickyboy (3 Apr 2017)

Chains, external gears and derailleurs are rubbish. The tech has been on bikes for about a million years

Automatic gearing would be great. Some internal hub system (with a belt drive natch) where you set the cadence range you want and the gearing adjusts to accommodate this. I seem to recall hearing about a system like that.

Presumably it's the usual problem regarding take up.....the industry is run by cyclists and ex-cyclists of the "well rod brakes were OK for me, so why change?" type. Coupled with the UCI insisting on blocking technological improvements to professional bikes and we're stuck in the <insert decade of your choice>


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## Dogtrousers (3 Apr 2017)

Changes over the past 40 or so years haven't been enormous. Indexed gears and integrated brifters. New frame shapes, not all variations on the diamond. One enabled by manufacturing engineering practice, one by new materials. One driven by ergonomics, one by weight. MTBs have been invented as a new category of bike. Then we have wider gearing ranges, better lights and disc brakes. Further on the periphery GPS devices and digital lifestyle integration stuff.

Really that's just tinkering round the edges. And more tinkering round the edges is probably what we can expect.

Some kind of wiring loom built into frames to communicate with electronically actuated brakes and gears? But that would be a kind of endless finessing what we have already, with no big breakthrough change for the end user. 

As people have said some kind of communication with cars (probably driverless) which could be two-way. The advent of the driverless car will be a game changer for all road users. Whether/how it will affect bike design I don't know.

Some new materials, and a cost effective manufacturing method may challenge the near-monopoly of the spoked wheel? We'll certainly see some new initiatives that promise to be revolutionary but aren't. Maybe a new Deal Drive automatic transmission wll appear, realise that it solves (with some difficulty) a problem that nobody has, and then go away again.

We now have an orthodoxy of indexed derailleur geared, spoked wheeled bikes. Road bike, hybrid or MTB? which is the same choice as racer or roadster 50 years ago with a new category of MTB added. Alternatives are somewhat niche products (folders, recumbents, e-bikes, even hub gears). I wonder if the market will stay the same or whether it will become more diverse? E-bikes have room to grow I would guess.


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## classic33 (3 Apr 2017)

Nigeyy said:


> But commonplace now?


Nothing to stop you putting an electric wheel up front. 
ABS, current computer(human brain) is far superior. Why fit something that's worse?


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## classic33 (3 Apr 2017)

Drago said:


> Indeed. Most drivers let their indicators do the looking for them.


Do they know they have them?


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## Alan O (3 Apr 2017)

The biotechnology for growing bikes on trees will be greatly improved...


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## RobinS (3 Apr 2017)

Well if I compare my latest bike, a 2015 tourer, with the one I used to cycle to school on in the 1970s, which was made probably early 60s, we are looking 50 years of "development", what has changed, and what has stayed the same?

Frame - same material, marginally different configuration.
Bars - same
Wheels - 700c instead of 27", same alloy.
Saddle - same
Gears - 3 x 9 speed, indexed with brifters instead of 2 x 5 with downtube friction shifters
Brakes - mechanical disks instead of wienmann centrepulls.
Mudguards - SKS chromoplastic instead of Bluemels
I would say that is a pretty modest development in 50 years, so I don't think much will change over the next 20 - 30 years. There have been modest evolutionary changes such as more gears, but they work the same way. The only major developments have been alternative frame materials - Aluminium, carbon, indexing gears, and disk brakes.


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## Johnno260 (3 Apr 2017)

The largest change in my opinion will be materials, more carbon fibre used or newer lighter materials used.

Electronic shifters used more than cable.

Basic frame design etc I can't see changing a great deal.

I can't see discs coming in more, I went from disc to rim brakes, I must say I prefer the rim brakes, the Spyres on my hybrid are very nice, but I don't think they're massively better.


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## Dogtrousers (3 Apr 2017)

RobinS said:


> Mudguards - SKS chromoplastic instead of Bluemels


The safety pop-out thing was introduced within the past 30 years. And plastic has generally replaced aluminium. And we have all those funny clip-on ones, and MTB style seat post ones. It's been a positive hive of actiivty. Who knows what the future will bring?

I think we have a whole thread's worth of speculation on the future of mudguards. 

Mind you, given the current political drive to return to the 1950s, we may in this country see a resurgence of the black rear mudguard tipped with white paint.


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## User16625 (3 Apr 2017)

I will bet there will be rich people taking their bikes to velodromes on the Moon just to make them lighter. Bikes will be made from what ever that thing in Terminator 2 was made of, some type of liquid metal. The bike can be a tourer one day, and a mountain bike on another day.


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## cyberknight (3 Apr 2017)

RideLikeTheStig said:


> I will bet there will be rich people taking their bikes to velodromes on the Moon just to make them lighter. Bikes will be made from what ever that thing in Terminator 2 was made of, some type of liquid metal. The bike can be a tourer one day, and a mountain bike on another day.


Tour de lune ?


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## Johnno260 (3 Apr 2017)

cyberknight said:


> Tour de lune ?



Least he has a helmet on.


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## GuyBoden (4 Apr 2017)

View attachment 345604

IMHO, the bicycle will still look very similar in the future, but hopefully the roads will improve.

(John Kemp Starley's Safety Bicycle "Rover" 1885.)


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## jonny jeez (4 Apr 2017)

CarlP said:


> @Yellow Saddle funny post.
> 
> I wonder why belt drive hasn't been more popular?


Because of the frame split issue.


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## jonny jeez (4 Apr 2017)

I hope some bikes, like city bikes will become simpler.

Technology will allow less clutter, sleek designs and supa light construction....almost disposable







Solid tyres will become.mainstream

Servo driven eccentric gearing will remove the need for rings and cogs...and clutter and cables and levers and springs.

Grease and oil will no longer be needed.

Bike shops, that sell bikes will cease to exist, with bike service centres becoming abundant.


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## classic33 (5 Apr 2017)

jonny jeez said:


> I hope some bikes, like city bikes will become simpler.
> 
> Technology will allow less clutter, sleek designs and supa light construction....almost disposable
> 
> ...


We go back around a 100 years?


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## jonny jeez (5 Apr 2017)

classic33 said:


> We go back around a 100 years?


Yeah but these will actually work.


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## classic33 (5 Apr 2017)

jonny jeez said:


> Yeah but these will actually work.


The tyres did then. No punctures whatsoever.


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## Drago (5 Apr 2017)

Cycle helmets might have been developed which demonstrably work, although lack of progress over the last thirty years doesn't bode well.


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## double_dd (7 Apr 2017)

Hopefully there'll be advancements in the technology which self driving cars use to navigate, detect objects and prevent collisions. The ability to re-play the scenario in a 3D model will go a long way in proving who's at fault for a lot of accidents.

See 
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqUbdd7ae54
for an example


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## classic33 (18 Apr 2017)

jonny jeez said:


> I hope some bikes, like city bikes will become simpler.
> 
> Technology will allow less clutter, sleek designs and supa light construction....almost disposable
> 
> ...


From 2006


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## Drago (19 Apr 2017)

That's hideous. Almost as bad as the Philipe Starck designed Aprilia Moto 6.5.


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## Heisenberg71 (19 Apr 2017)

Not a lot of discussion in here about Graphene, apparently a revolutionary material with widespread applications in cycling. Lighter AND stronger offers all sorts of possibilities for design. A sub 3kg bike? The current aero / sleek / slick bike trend could be fed by Graphene. Component design can also benefit from this material, offering a further plethora of opportunities.

Electronics and specifically integrated electronics will, I think gather pace. There are of course some who will hark back to steel and cables but many and certainly children of today who embrace all tech in all forms. There are many cyclists, including myself who love gadgets and stats. My boys love tech, imagine how comfortable they will be with it being integrated on their bicycle in 20 or 30 years.

My Di2 system already has semi-sync shifting so we are half way there. Surely fully auto as an option can't be far away. It may not be to everyone's taste but many will embrace it, I'm sure. Integrated power meters, speed and cadence sensors, ABS, integrated lights.....

I heard a 'Fabber' could become common place. Essentially an in-home 3D printer for the masses. From a range of base materials you can then download, create or bespoke a build programme for all sorts of things. Imagine completely bespoke components and accessories? I'm excited by the future.

However the biggest question is will Garmin have actually created navigation software that doesn't go 'off course' every three miles or drain the battery at twice the speed of sound? That would be progress indeed.


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## Drago (19 Apr 2017)

Full auto was around a while ago, but no one bought it. Price perhaps?


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## classic33 (19 Apr 2017)

Get rid of the levers completly, and there's no need to think in Russian either.

Think it failed due to cost, but would it work out cheaper now.


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## Heisenberg71 (19 Apr 2017)

classic33 said:


> Get rid of the levers completly, and there's no need to think in Russian either.
> 
> Think it failed due to cost, but would it work out cheaper now.



Purely down to chip they put in a battery now. The functionality is virtually there in existing kit.
I would like to try it, but not sure how it would feel. However both of my cars are automatic and wouldn't go back now.


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## Dogtrousers (19 Apr 2017)

I've never driven an automatic car, so I don't speak from experience, but ... 

Surely a one-size-fits-all automatic transmissions for bikes would fail because, unlike cars, the engines are all different and have different optimum revs (cadence). So one person might find the bike under-geared and another might find it over-geared. So you'd need an adjustment - let's call it a gear lever.

As to why automatic transmissions have failed in the past, the Deal Drive was very heavy, complex and expensive. I don't know the actual commercial reasons for its failure but I'm guessing that weight cost and possibly production problems were involved.


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## classic33 (19 Apr 2017)

Heisenberg71 said:


> Purely down to chip they put in a battery now. The functionality is virtually there in existing kit.
> I would like to try it, but not sure how it would feel. However both of my cars are automatic and wouldn't go back now.


Kept an eye open for it, or similar, and not seen anything. Do you think you'd be able to manage by thought alone, no levers. That includes your braking.

I'd say we've all had one of those "STOP" moments.


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## classic33 (19 Apr 2017)

Dogtrousers said:


> I've never driven an automatic car, so I don't speak from experience, but ...
> 
> Surely a one-size-fits-all automatic transmissions for bikes would fail because, unlike cars, the engines are all different and have different optimum revs (cadence). So one person might find the bike under-geared and another might find it over-geared. So you'd need an adjustment - let's call it a gear lever.
> 
> As to why automatic transmissions have failed in the past, the Deal Drive was very heavy, complex and expensive. I don't know the actual commercial reasons for its failure but I'm guessing that weight cost and possibly production problems were involved.


The Deal Drive was one of many automatic gearing systems over the years.


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## Dogtrousers (19 Apr 2017)

classic33 said:


> The Deal Drive was one of many automatic gearing systems over the years.


But the only one, I think (happy to be corrected) to have got anywhere near mass production.


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## classic33 (19 Apr 2017)

http://gizmodo.com/tag/priority-continuum-bicycle-review
&
https://www.prioritybicycles.com/products/thecontinuum
&
http://evolvethebike.com/

As for Shimano, well
http://bike.shimano.com/content/sac...upgrade-for-ebikes-with-shimano-steps-an.html
"Reinvents" their 2006 system
https://www.cnet.com/uk/news/feeling-shiftless-try-shimanos-automatic-bike-transmission/


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## Dogtrousers (19 Apr 2017)

I'd heard of the Nuvinci CVT but didn't realise it came with an automatic gear selection. How do they get around the issue of mismatched "engines"? Or do they just expect you to like it or lump it?


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## Alan O (19 Apr 2017)

Dogtrousers said:


> I'd heard of the Nuvinci CVT but didn't realise it came with an automatic gear selection. How do they get around the issue of mismatched "engines"? Or do they just expect you to like it or lump it?


It doesn't look like it's automatic to me - "When you turn the shifter...", says the reviewer.


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## Dogtrousers (19 Apr 2017)

The autobike pairs a nuvinci hub with some electronic gubbins and servos powered by a dynohub.
http://newatlas.com/autobike-shifts-gears/29135/
But as not everyone wants the same cadence so it gives you three ranges to choose from.

Call me a luddite but that seems like a massive amount of complexity for a three speed bike with auto fine tuning.

But I've never experienced one so shouldn't really pass comment.


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## classic33 (19 Apr 2017)

Dogtrousers said:


> I'd heard of the Nuvinci CVT but didn't realise it came with an automatic gear selection. How do they get around the issue of mismatched "engines"? Or do they just expect you to like it or lump it?


From what I know, and read, you were expected to like it or lump it.

The newer version was supposed to have ironed out that problem. Uncertain how though.


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## Ian H (19 Apr 2017)

Drago said:


> Cycle helmets might have been developed which demonstrably work, although lack of progress over the last thirty years doesn't bode well.



But you'd still have to work out a way of making people fall off often enough to make them actually useful.


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## Alan O (19 Apr 2017)

Ian H said:


> But you'd still have to work out a way of making people fall off often enough to make them actually useful.


Having to operate everything on the bike through a mobile phone app will see to that


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## jefmcg (19 Apr 2017)

Alan O said:


> Having to operate everything on the bike through a mobile phone app will see to that


But how to make sure they land on their head?


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## Alan O (19 Apr 2017)

jefmcg said:


> But how to make sure they land on their head?


SPD cleats with neodymium magnets?


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## Smokin Joe (19 Apr 2017)

Dogtrousers said:


> I've never driven an automatic car, so I don't speak from experience, but ...
> 
> Surely a one-size-fits-all automatic transmissions for bikes would fail because, unlike cars, the engines are all different and have different optimum revs (cadence). So one person might find the bike under-geared and another might find it over-geared. So you'd need an adjustment - let's call it a gear lever.


An automatic gear system on a bike would need to be user programmable, something very easy to achieve. Using either a given cadence range for the rider to be in at all times or maybe linked to a power meter, the range which could be personalised.

As already said, however much we oldies scoff at new technology the young will embrace it - just as we did with all the advances that came our way - and it will eventually become the norm.


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## Dogtrousers (19 Apr 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> As already said, however much we oldies scoff at new technology the young will embrace it - just as we did with all the advances that came our way - and it will eventually become the norm.



I do try to be open minded about such things, really I do. But every time I open my mouth or write anything, rather than the considered words of a visionary all that ever comes out is "Bah! what rubbish! It'll never catch on! We never had anything like that in my day!"

It's most perplexing.


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## Heisenberg71 (19 Apr 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> As already said, however much we oldies scoff at new technology the young will embrace it - just as we did with all the advances that came our way - and it will eventually become the norm.



Get that man a beer. 
Finally someone gets it.


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## Shut Up Legs (19 Apr 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> As already said, however much we oldies scoff at new technology the young will embrace it - just as we did with all the advances that came our way - and it will eventually become the norm.


What I'm afraid of is that the new technology for electric-assist will become more common, and future cyclists will be more numerous, but also more overweight. If that's "new technology", I think I'll just become a grumpy oldie. At least I'll be a fit and healthy grumpy oldie.


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## classic33 (19 Apr 2017)

*Smartphone gives bikes an automatic gearbox*

_Some will worry about the system’s dependence on Bluetooth, says Joel Natale, head buyer at Evans Cycles of London, which runs 50 UK bike shops.

“Shimano could have made their system wireless but decided not to. Imagine 200 riders in a peloton are using it. How can you make sure the signals don’t interact or that somebody else can’t get control… to stop you changing gear?” he asks.

Natale thinks CCL will face an uphill struggle getting most riders to abandon manual gear changing. “However, there is one group for whom this may make total sense, and that’s triathlon riders – who like to ride at constant cadence and power”, he says.

Next, CCL wants to develop a bike version of a car’s anti-lock braking system (ABS), with the iPhone controlling the bike brakes to prevent a skid. “A front wheel lock is generally catastrophic. This may help,” says Wilson.

*https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn22478-smartphone-gives-bikes-an-automatic-gearbox/*_


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## Drago (20 Apr 2017)

I don't mind new technology that genuinely brings an advance. Bright LED lighting with long battery life, stiff and light modern frame designs, puncture resistant yet supple tyres, high quality suspension on mountain bikes etc, but some technology is bought simply for the sake of owning it, not because it makes the rider any safer, faster, more comfortable, or knocks a single second off journey time.


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## jefmcg (20 Apr 2017)

classic33 said:


> “Shimano could have made their system wireless but decided not to. Imagine 200 riders in a peloton are using it. How can you make sure the signals don’t interact or that somebody else can’t get control… to stop you changing gear?” he asks.


Thus making clear why he is the chief buyer for Evans and not a technology company.


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## david k (20 Apr 2017)

In 30 years I'll be desperate to buy the latest garmin 8,000,000 as it has another extra feature I don't need


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## classic33 (20 Apr 2017)

jefmcg said:


> Thus making clear* why he is the chief buyer for Evans* and not a technology company.


"Was" may be a better word to use now. Evans have more than 50 shops in the UK now.


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## Ming the Merciless (20 Apr 2017)

Cheap custom carbon (or other material) where you can enter your dimensions and preferences online and get a custom frame size fabricated from a range of designs for you in short order.

Hydrogen fuel cell lights where you never need to charge the batteries.

A bike lock that is light and secure.

Internet connected bikes with built in navigation and tracking.


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