# Milan - Sanremo 2016 **spoilers**



## Pro Tour Punditry (15 Mar 2016)

Saturday 19th March sees the first Monument of the season, this year stretching to 291km. Will it be a sprint or will there be fireworks before then? 

http://www.milanosanremo.it/en/


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## Hont (17 Mar 2016)

Well we know that Degonkolb will not defend his title. The two others - Kristoff and Matthews - that made the podium last year have looked in pretty decent form this year, but I'm picking Sagan....

...to come second.


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## Pro Tour Punditry (17 Mar 2016)

Will a fired-up post-TA stage-cancellation Nibali be out for the win? The sprinters might be fighting for scraps if he and a few others decide to make a fight of it. Cancellara for instance might fancy mixing it up with him.


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## Flying_Monkey (17 Mar 2016)

Marmion said:


> Will a fired-up post-TA stage-cancellation Nibali be out for the win? The sprinters might be fighting for scraps if he and a few others decide to make a fight of it. Cancellara for instance might fancy mixing it up with him.



I think Cancellara is out to win everything he can this year to cement his legacy. I am pretty certain he'll try to launch a characteristic attack near the end.


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## Pro Tour Punditry (17 Mar 2016)

Just read that Betancur will be riding the 291km route of MSR 292 days after he last raced; no biggie Carlos.


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## Pro Tour Punditry (17 Mar 2016)

Flying_Monkey said:


> I think Cancellara is out to win everything he can this year to cement his legacy. I am pretty certain he'll try to launch a characteristic attack near the end.



A £1 win treble on Cancellara to win MSR, Flanders and PR would be interesting...


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## Pro Tour Punditry (17 Mar 2016)

More useless facts. The 2016 edition will be 23 years since the doping git Davide Rebellin made his debut in the race, when it was won by Maurizio Fondriest. How old does that make you feel?!


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## ColinJ (17 Mar 2016)

Marmion said:


> More useless facts. The 2016 edition will be 23 years since the doping git Davide Rebellin made his debut in the race, when it was won by Maurizio Fondriest. *How old does that make you feel?*!


60! (I was thinking the other day that watching Greg Lemond win the 1989 TdF was what got me interested in cycling again. That also made me feel 60! )


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## CaadX (17 Mar 2016)

de vlaeminck bit of a long shot I know, but you never know ? So were Leicester !


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## perplexed (18 Mar 2016)

I don't know who's going to win, but I think Ben Swift may as well save himself the bus fare...


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## smutchin (18 Mar 2016)

Flying_Monkey said:


> I think Cancellara is out to win everything he can this year to cement his legacy. I am pretty certain he'll try to launch a characteristic attack near the end.



It does seem highly likely, doesn't it. I've just been watching his 2008 win on youtube and it's a masterpiece of tactical riding. He leaves it until about 1km out then gets a slingshot off another rider's attack, and once he's got a gap, there's no catching him. If he can pull off something like that again, I'll be very happy for him.

Might be hard to escape the likes of Sagan, Kristoff and especially GVA on current form though.

Will be interesting to see how Gaviria does - this is going to be his longest race by a considerable margin, but if he can stick with the leaders until the end, who knows? I suspect it's too soon for him though.


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## Crackle (18 Mar 2016)

perplexed said:


> I don't know who's going to win, but I think Ben Swift may as well save himself the bus fare...


He was 2nd or third a few years ago and the length does tend to even things out. I think he'll place well even if he doesn't win it.


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## Pro Tour Punditry (18 Mar 2016)

perplexed said:


> I don't know who's going to win, but I think Ben Swift may as well save himself the bus fare...





Crackle said:


> He was 2nd or third a few years ago and the length does tend to even things out. I think he'll place well even if he doesn't win it.



The SKY PR people* say he's "full gas for it"
http://www.teamsky.com/teamsky/home carousel/article/75228#tsKyrWzE2u4YcAwC.97

*or it might have been Swift...


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## Pro Tour Punditry (18 Mar 2016)

It's Cancellara's birthday today, hopefully he waits til tomorrow and has a double celebration!


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## Hont (18 Mar 2016)

Marmion said:


> The SKY PR people* say he's "full gas for it"


As long as he's not full *of *gas, because that can be unpleasant in a peloton.


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## Flying_Monkey (18 Mar 2016)

Swift has more chance in this kind of race than in a normal length race with a sprint at the end. Like Matthews, he's not really a pure sprinter, more someone who likes a little bit of uphill, and how can make selections, and this actually suits him more.


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## jarlrmai (18 Mar 2016)

291km of racing.... ouch


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## Crackle (19 Mar 2016)

Looks like a landslide will force a route change

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/landslide-hits-milan-san-remo-course/

130k in, so hopefully not too much impact on the race


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## rich p (19 Mar 2016)

They're going down like ninepins including GT, Matthews and Kennaugh


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## Dayvo (19 Mar 2016)

Stannard in position for a powerful ride in.


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## Dayvo (19 Mar 2016)

But it's four Italians against the solitary Brit.


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## Dayvo (19 Mar 2016)

And an Essex boy, too.


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## Pro Tour Punditry (19 Mar 2016)

Bums


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## smutchin (19 Mar 2016)

smutchin said:


> Will be interesting to see how Gaviria does... if he can stick with the leaders until the end, who knows?



Pah!


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## Crackle (19 Mar 2016)

smutchin said:


> Pah!


One of the BMC riders moved across and just took his front wheel as Gaviria seemed to be checking over his shoulder, so he had no time to react.


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## Flying_Monkey (19 Mar 2016)

I don't think anyone would have predicted Demarre. And to be fair, this would have been between Bouhanni, Sagan and Gaviria had it not been for the last's crash (caused by inexperience) and the first's mechanical (pure misfortune). All three who made the podium would have been rounding out the Top 10.


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## Strathlubnaig (19 Mar 2016)

Flying_Monkey said:


> I don't think anyone would have predicted Demarre. And to be fair, this would have been between Bouhanni, Sagan and Gaviria had it not been for the last's crash (caused by inexperience) and the first's mechanical (pure misfortune). All three who made the podium would have been rounding out the Top 10.


that's racing I guess !


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## beastie (19 Mar 2016)

Flying_Monkey said:


> I don't think anyone would have predicted Demarre. And to be fair, this would have been between Bouhanni, Sagan and Gaviria had it not been for the last's crash (caused by inexperience) and the first's mechanical (pure misfortune). All three who made the podium would have been rounding out the Top 10.


Demare was moving up on Bouhanni before the chain drop though. Bouhanni was pretty unlucky I admit. Amazing for Gavira to be so strong at such a young age.


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## Flick of the Elbow (20 Mar 2016)

FDJ have suddenly stepped up a level. I wonder what they have started to do differently.


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## BSRU (20 Mar 2016)

Demare accused of getting a tow from the team car.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/rid...-a-tow-from-a-team-car-during-milan-san-remo/


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## Pro Tour Punditry (20 Mar 2016)

BSRU said:


> Demare accused of getting a tow from the team car.
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/rid...-a-tow-from-a-team-car-during-milan-san-remo/


Demare is being interviewed later today by French TV, should be interesting (if they ask him the right questions!)


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## Flying_Monkey (20 Mar 2016)

I'm shocked that the Italian press is accusing a French winner of the MSR of cheating. Shocked.


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## Pro Tour Punditry (20 Mar 2016)

It would appear from Twitter that Demare's ride was on Strava for about 10 seconds before it was removed. Unfortunately for him that was long enough for some of his data to be recorded as KOMs e.g. 2.33 for a 1.7km segment on the Cipressa climb, Visconti was 2.40 and the bunch averaged 2.50. Hardly "stunning" speeds but it might be an indication he was aided in some way; perhaps not to the extent suggested in the cyclingnews article.


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## BSRU (20 Mar 2016)

Shows the KOM in question.
https://twitter.com/hendriksmj/status/711548834967625730/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw


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## Pro Tour Punditry (20 Mar 2016)

And Demare makes his strava file public:
https://www.strava.com/activities/521963982


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## smutchin (20 Mar 2016)

The official all-time record for the full 5.7km of the Cipressa is 9.36 set by Francesco Casagrande in 2001. Démare's time yesterday was 10.02, an average speed of 33.7kmh. That doesn't strike me as particularly suspicious. It's not the hardest of climbs.

We would need to know the times set by other non-Strava riders to make a fair assessment of his ride yesterday.


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## rich p (20 Mar 2016)

His is the fastest time since Strava though, which is mildly unexpected though.
Albeit they were climbing it slowly yesterday to begin with IIRC


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## Crackle (20 Mar 2016)

First French winner for decades. L'equipe won't care if he was sat on the roofrack of the team car facing backwards.


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## smutchin (20 Mar 2016)

rich p said:


> His is the fastest time since Strava though



Only among those who post their rides on Strava. Do we know how fast Nibali went up the Cipressa yesterday? What about Stannard?


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## Pro Tour Punditry (20 Mar 2016)

Demare says _"I have nothing to reproach myself. I have done nothing wrong. There are referees in cycling. If I had done something forbidden, I would have been disqualified..."_
http://www.lequipe.fr/Cyclisme-sur-...-tricherie-je-n-ai-rien-a-me-reprocher/645166


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## Pro Tour Punditry (20 Mar 2016)

And an Italian website claim they have photographic "proof" although, to me, it looks as if that is a white bike and Demare's bike yesterday was blue. 






http://www.tuttobiciweb.it/index.php?page=news&cod=88389&tp=n


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## Berk on a Bike (20 Mar 2016)

This nails him...


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## Berk on a Bike (20 Mar 2016)

But seriously folks, peeps on the Twitter are saying it isn't Demare and it isn't the Cipressa. Contentious!

(the original photo, not my post)


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## Pro Tour Punditry (20 Mar 2016)

Vichot at Turchino seems a popular twitter guess


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## rich p (20 Mar 2016)

I've read elsewhere that the French press are incandescent that Demare is being accused without any evidence.
Chris Froome must be apoplectic!


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## Pro Tour Punditry (20 Mar 2016)

This is almost as intriguing as an episode of Murder She Wrote. Although I am only guessing as I never watched it.


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## Crackle (20 Mar 2016)

If you look at his time up the Cipressa it compares favourably with other sprinters. Considering all of them are fighting to stay in touch at that point it's no real surprise it's one of the fastest, it has to be or the race is lost there. Greipel is not far behind him.

Meanwhile the internet is posting html views of Strava pages and crying conspiracy. Arnauld is being a bit careful in his phrasing though. I imagine a draft or a sticky bottle got used somewhere. Let Nibbles be the first to point the finger on that one eh


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## Flying_Monkey (21 Mar 2016)

He's absolutely clear that he was drafting. That's exactly what any rider does after a crash. He also says that the commissaires' car was there the whole time, so if he had done anything unusual it would have been noticed. As he says, no-one would have cared had he just re-entered the peloton and finished in the pack. Is there any 'unwritten rule' that says that you can't try to win after getting back into the peloton in this way? Not that I've ever heard of...


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## Berk on a Bike (21 Mar 2016)

INRNG gives it the full Perry Mason treatment http://inrng.com/2016/03/demare-cipressa-conspiracy-theories/


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## Flying_Monkey (21 Mar 2016)

Berk on a Bike said:


> INRNG gives it the full Perry Mason treatment http://inrng.com/2016/03/demare-cipressa-conspiracy-theories/



In the comments, it is pointed out that Peter Kennaugh also got back on after the crash, yet no-one is accusing him of taking a tow.


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## Pro Tour Punditry (21 Mar 2016)

He can now rest easy, having weighed all the "evidence" I now declare him a worthy winner


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## Berk on a Bike (21 Mar 2016)

It all goes to prove professional cycling is never boring. Except when it is.


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## Donger (21 Mar 2016)

Flying_Monkey said:


> In the comments, it is pointed out that Peter Kennaugh also got back on after the crash, yet no-one is accusing him of taking a tow.


If he had, it would have been by a Jaguar! If they all took a tow every now and again, my money would always be on Team Sky.


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## Berk on a Bike (21 Mar 2016)

Donger said:


> If he had, it would have been by a Jaguar! If they all took a tow every now and again, my money would always be on Team Sky.


Don't they use Fords nowadays?


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## Pro Tour Punditry (21 Mar 2016)

Donger said:


> If he had, it would have been by a Jaguar! If they all took a tow every now and again, my money would always be on Team Sky.


Sky now using Ford cars

edit - as Berk said a millisecond before me!


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