# Don't buy that electric bike just yet!



## Cycleops (18 Nov 2020)

Under a new scheme E-bike prices could fall by a third from next spring with new government subsidy:
https://www.bikeradar.com/https://www.bikeradar.com/news/electric-bike-subsidy/


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## Drago (18 Nov 2020)

We heard something similar earlier this year and nowt happened, so I shan't get too excited...yet.


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## Archie_tect (18 Nov 2020)

Too late! picked up our e-assist tandem in August. It's fantastic!


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## fossyant (18 Nov 2020)

Might be free when I decide to get one in 30 years time (I'll be 80)


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## Littgull (18 Nov 2020)

fossyant said:


> Might be free when I decide to get one in 30 years time (I'll be 80)


I'll settle for 'half price' in 14 years time when I'm 80 .


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## sheddy (18 Nov 2020)

Don't the Welsh or Scots already have this ?


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## Archie_tect (18 Nov 2020)

Littgull said:


> I'll settle for 'half price' in 14 years time when I'm 80 .


I'll be 80 in 17 years and 8 months 
... I hope.


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## ColinJ (18 Nov 2020)

I imagine that the price _WILL_ have fallen a lot by the time that I need one. (I'm assuming that my health and fitness don't suddenly fall off a cliff again!)

The technology is getting better all the time and should get cheaper. I'd guess that a fairly light ebike with a realistic range of 100+ kms will be affordable in 10-15 years time... (If I am still around then, I will try to remember to drag this thread out of the archives so we can see where the technology is at in 2030 and 2035.)


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## rualexander (18 Nov 2020)

sheddy said:


> Don't the Welsh or Scots already have this ?



In Scotland there's an interest free loan scheme but not a subsidy as such.
https://www.transport.gov.scot/news/further-funding-for-interest-free-e-bike-loans/


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## screenman (18 Nov 2020)

I do not buy into this putting things off just to save a few bob, it just gives you less time to enjoy whatever it is you want to buy.


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## gavroche (18 Nov 2020)

sheddy said:


> Don't the Welsh or Scots already have this ?


Not to my knowledge for Wales,but I hope I'm wrong.


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## Pale Rider (19 Nov 2020)

ColinJ said:


> I'd guess that a fairly light ebike with a realistic range of 100+ kms will be affordable in 10-15 years time.



Recent history is against you.

The push bike part of an ebike is going nowhere - unless you believe 2020 push bikes to be a significant advance on those made in 2005.

Which leaves the motor and battery.

There has been very little progress in the last 10 or 15 years, as evidenced by my 2010 Bosch ebike.

The batteries of 2021 bikes have an almost identical chemistry and density, and the latest motors are slightly smaller and lighter.

All the indications are that a 2030 ebike won't be so very different to one you can buy now.

There will be lots of marketing spend telling you the 2030 bike is a leap forward, but that's not the same thing.


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## Notafettler (19 Nov 2020)

@Pale Rider Lots of rumours including Dyson that are saying batteries which will produce 60% more power same weight and volume as present batteries. So lighter weight or greater range. Motors need to be made more reliable some have been absolutely dire according to https://www.pedelecs.co.uk/
In particular the Kalkhof Impulse motor. Although your Bosch is highly rated as that correct?
I can't see why the electric motors on a electric bikes shouldn't last as long as in electric car. Have I missed something there.
@Cycleops doubt this will happen within a year or so. I expect any one wanting/needing will get one now. Therefore it will be people encouraged to buy one in the future. No doubt a lot will give up on them the first time they are caught in the rain! So leaving it another year you will get them even cheaper. Furthermore it will reduce the price of any sold secondhand bought prior to the introduction. There will also be a big increase in the secondhand market as people upgrade reducing the price further. As an aside the price will go up negating to a degree the benefits of the subsidised.
Personally I am not sure which way I will go,
upgrade
New one just because it's new.
Both will result in me selling the present one which is working fine and has a nearly new battery.
OR buying the new and flogging it for profit.
I really see no need for two.
@Pale Rider and anyone else knowledgeable I will be looking for a work horse one entirely for pulling trailers. Trailer will always be attached to seat post.


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## Phaeton (19 Nov 2020)

ROFL E-bike, when I'm old & decrepit naysayers, they crack me up.


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## ColinJ (19 Nov 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Recent history is against you.
> 
> The push bike part of an ebike is going nowhere - unless you believe 2020 push bikes to be a significant advance on those made in 2005.
> 
> ...


I'm sure that you are right about recent history but there is such a huge push now to get rid of petrol/diesel and switch over to electric vehicles that huge sums are surely being spent on battery research and production?


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## Notafettler (19 Nov 2020)

ColinJ said:


> I'm sure that you are right about recent history but there is such a huge push now to get rid of petrol/diesel and switch over to electric vehicles that huge sums are surely being spent on battery research and production?


See above many companies saying they have worked out a way of increasing capacity. Some rumours suggesting 60% in the case of Dyson.


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## Drago (19 Nov 2020)

ColinJ said:


> I'm sure that you are right about recent history but there is such a huge push now to get rid of petrol/diesel and switch over to electric vehicles that huge sums are surely being spent on battery research and production?


Certainly in China, where more than half of the worlds production originates.


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## Phaeton (19 Nov 2020)

ColinJ said:


> I'm sure that you are right about recent history but there is such a huge push now to get rid of petrol/diesel and switch over to electric vehicles that huge sums are surely being spent on battery research and production?


That's not strictly true, but as usual they are being sneaky, we'll still see petrol engines for the next 20 years at least as they will hide them in hybrids.


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## Ming the Merciless (19 Nov 2020)

The new batteries are the ones incorporating graphene, and yes they will be a game changer. Not just charge held, but how fast they can be recharged.


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## Pale Rider (19 Nov 2020)

ColinJ said:


> I'm sure that you are right about recent history but there is such a huge push now to get rid of petrol/diesel and switch over to electric vehicles that huge sums are surely being spent on battery research and production?



The huge research and development budget of the auto industry has produced not much other than lithium ion cells tweaked for the power draw requirements of electric cars.

A Tesla is powered by battery packs made of very similar lithium ion penlight cells to an ebike, just lots and lots and lots of them to make enough grunt to get the thing down the road.

Other electric cars presently in production use battery packs made the same way.

The cells are made in a handful of huge factories, which themselves take years to build, and some are still being built.

Even if a super new battery was unveiled tomorrow, it would take many years for it to reach even small scale production, let alone the many millions of packs needed to reach the mass market.

As @Notafettler says, there are promising laboratory batteries, but none ever seem to get any further than a test bench.

It really does look like we are stuck with the present 'heavy metal' technology, at least for the 10 or 15 year timescale under discussion.

This video shows the guts of a pack - fast forward to about 4m40sec to see the cells.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0IHNrW0QOA


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## Drago (19 Nov 2020)

^^^ Wot he said. Thatere hasn't been a singnifcant advance in commercially available battery technology in over 15 years.

Hydrogen is where its at, and i look forward to hudrogen ebikes


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## richtea (19 Nov 2020)

I agree with your point about the chemistry, Pale Rider, barely differing in 10 years, but something must have changed to allow the very tidy in-frame systems* nowadays. Either the batteries are getting smaller, or the packaging/electronics is shrinking, otherwise we would have had in-frame systems in 2010 in Halfords. Or maybe it's the frames that have changed?

Thoughts?

*Fazua and ebikemotion in particular


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## gzoom (20 Nov 2020)

richtea said:


> but something must have changed to allow the very tidy in-frame systems* nowadays.



Price, packaging, and smaller BMS systems.

Sony introduced the first commercial lithium ion battery in the 1990s, yet even today cost is a major issue. 

There is new battery tech in labs, but none are close to commercialisation. 

OLED was first demoed in the 1990s by tech labs, but didn't hit consumer products till 2010s. Expect similar slow introduction of new battery tech beyond lithium ion.


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## gzoom (20 Nov 2020)

ColinJ said:


> I'm sure that you are right about recent history but there is such a huge push now to get rid of petrol/diesel and switch over to electric vehicles that huge sums are surely being spent on battery research and production?



The main push in EV batteries is mainly CHEAPER production costs not more density. Infact there is no evidence in the EV world new battery packs are better, often its the case they are WORSE.

For example the original Nissan Leaf had a 24kWh pack first introduced in 2011, than in 2016 Nissan made a 30kWh pack in the same form factor. The assumption was the 30kWh pack would be 'better', but it wasn't. The 30kWh pack over heated more and degrades more, the result is right now in 2020 a Leaf with a old 24kWh pack hold MORE or the level of charge as a 30kWh pack, but is lighter therefore more efficient.

Tesla had a similar issue when they introduced 'new' battery chemistry in around 2015 with a new 90kWh battery pack to replace the old 85kWh pack. Its now universally recognised that 90kWh is the WORST performing battery pack Tesla has made to date, suffering higher degredation and over heating issues versus other packs.

The brand new Model 3 is running new battery cell sizes, it now seems Model 3 battery degredation is again WORSE than whats seen in the original 85kWh packs Tesla introduced in 2011.

The summary is DON'T assume new EVs have a better battery pack versus old ones. Cheaper batteries doesn't always equate to better batteries in the long term.


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## CXRAndy (20 Nov 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> The huge research and development budget of the auto industry has produced not much other than lithium ion cells tweaked for the power draw requirements of electric cars.
> 
> A Tesla is powered by battery packs made of very similar lithium ion penlight cells to an ebike, just lots and lots and lots of them to make enough grunt to get the thing down the road.
> 
> ...




That guy is an idiot, a you tuber trying to get exposure. His complete disregard for his children's safety in owning a high performance RWD car, then complaining of bald rear tyres and continuing to drive in the rain with bald tyres with his family inside. 


Did you watch Tesla's battery announcement in September. Tab-less terminal batteries, million mile life expectancy and bonded cell to body instead of separate battery packs. Tesla are ahead in battery tech to everyone else *current*-ly


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## Pale Rider (20 Nov 2020)

richtea said:


> I agree with your point about the chemistry, Pale Rider, barely differing in 10 years, but something must have changed to allow the very tidy in-frame systems* nowadays. Either the batteries are getting smaller, or the packaging/electronics is shrinking, otherwise we would have had in-frame systems in 2010 in Halfords. Or maybe it's the frames that have changed?
> 
> Thoughts?
> 
> *Fazua and ebikemotion in particular



Both Fazua and ebikemotion have 250wh capacity batteries.

They are approximately half the physical size and weight of the 500wh batteries fitted to Bosch and most other ebikes.

In other words, there are half the number of penlight cells in Fazua and ebikemotion batteries, making them easier to blend into a frame.

Both those systems can manage on a smaller battery because they use lower power motors, which are aimed at fitter and lighter riders.

The key measure is energy density - the amount of grunt you can get out of a given volume of battery material.

That has improved in 10 years, but only marginally so.

In other words, a 500wh pack produced in 2010 would be ever so slightly bigger and heavier than one produced in 2020, but you would need a scale measuring grams to notice the difference.

As with the weather, past performance is a good guide to the future, so it's reasonable to predict density for lithium ion will continue to improve at a glacial pace.



CXRAndy said:


> Did you watch Tesla's battery announcement in September. Tab-less terminal batteries, million mile life expectancy and bonded cell to body instead of separate battery packs. Tesla are ahead in battery tech to everyone else *current*-ly



Any announcement from Tesla must come with a Musk warning.

He was deliberately sketchy but encouraging about battery plans in order to keep the stock price of Tesla high - they lose money on car sales as I'm sure you know.

I'm not having a go at the bloke, there are fewer more skilled entrepreneurs, but what does Tesla actually have for sale to customers?

Electric cars powered by lithium ion Panasonic cells, which you or I could buy (you did, if memory serves).

Musk is building a cell factory, which last I heard was up and running, albeit at a low capacity.

Its focus is on lithium ion, although Musk has made a few non-specific remarks about incorporating graphene, leading (no doubt deliberately) to more excited rumours and hikes in the share price.


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## ebikeerwidnes (20 Nov 2020)

Any discussion involving ebikes from before 2016 has a problem in the UK
Ebike regulations here changed in 2016 so any bike made before that will probably be limited to 200W - rather than the current 250W
so - naturally - the battery will last longer as it is doing less work
actually my old ebike (Powacycle Salisbury) had a 180W motor - and a throttle

Of course - technology has improved since then - so the motors are better (sometimes) and they are (again sometime) generally more efficient and less easy to fool into doing all the work - hence range can actually be higher
so it can be complicated


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## gzoom (20 Nov 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> Electric cars powered by lithium ion Panasonic cells, which you or I could buy (you did, if memory serves).



Sadly no one outside Tesla can buy their cells. They are produced by Panasonic but getting hold of one is impossible without access to a Tesla product (car or PowerWall). Their form factor even look like 'normal' cells, but their guts are very different and the chemistry very unstable.

You have to be either very brave or very stupid to play around with Tesla cells without access to Tesla BMS/professional level understanding of whats going on. Treat them like you would treat a 'normal' cell and things get wild pretty quickly!!! - Watch from 3:05 


View: https://youtu.be/WdDi1haA71Q


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## SkipdiverJohn (20 Nov 2020)

Another factor electric powered vehicle proponents frequently forget is the supply and demand situation. If demand for battery powered electric vehicles increases rapidly, then the raw materials used in those batteries is likely to go up in price - because mineral extraction is not something you can merely switch up a notch like turning up your heating. Far from getting cheaper with increased demand, a likely outcome is that short term demand for battery ingredients will exceed supply and the commodity price of those ingredients will go up, with a knock-on increase in battery manufacturing costs and therefore retail prices of products with those batteries embodied in them.


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## Blue Hills (20 Nov 2020)

screenman said:


> I do not buy into this putting things off just to save a few bob, it just gives you less time to enjoy whatever it is you want to buy.


Well i don't think anyone's planning to stop cycling while they wait.
I'm happy to wait.


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## Dave7 (26 Nov 2020)

Assuming my health improves by Spring.....which I believe it wiil.....I will, I think, be getting an ebike for then.
I favour the Ribble hybrid. 
One thing that worries me is reports of problems. In general, not just for Ribble. Any problem would entail a 100 mile round trip......then again to collect it.


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## Drago (26 Nov 2020)

You gotta take the plunge Dave. If it turns out to be a dog get a refund. Ive done near on a thousand miles on mine since August.


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## gavroche (26 Nov 2020)

@Drago you will be pleased to hear that my stepson ( 50 years old) is getting possession on his new Orbea 5.0 ebike tomorrow, so I will probably have a look at it on Saturday but no plans to get one myself yet .


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## Blue Hills (26 Nov 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Assuming my health improves by Spring.....which I believe it wiil.....I will, I think, be getting an ebike for then.
> I favour the Ribble hybrid.
> One thing that worries me is reports of problems. In general, not just for Ribble. Any problem would entail a 100 mile round trip......then again to collect it.


what sort of problems?


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## Drago (26 Nov 2020)

He'll be referreding to the explosions that some have suffered.


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## Dave7 (26 Nov 2020)

Blue Hills said:


> what sort of problems?


Long boring story.
Covid in Feb leading to Long Covid. Left with extreme fatigue, no appetite, losing balance.
Not been able to ride since May.
I feel I am slowly recovering.


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## Blue Hills (26 Nov 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Long boring story.
> Covid in Feb leading to Long Covid. Left with extreme fatigue, no appetite, losing balance.
> Not been able to ride since May.
> I feel I am slowly recovering.


hope things continue to get better for you Dave.
But I was referring to bike problems - I thought you were - do you run off batteries?


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## ebikeerwidnes (26 Nov 2020)

Dave7 said:


> Assuming my health improves by Spring.....which I believe it wiil.....I will, I think, be getting an ebike for then.
> I favour the Ribble hybrid.
> One thing that worries me is reports of problems. In general, not just for Ribble. Any problem would entail a 100 mile round trip......then again to collect it.


I have done 3000 miles in the last 12 months
most problems have been due to punctures - plus one where I bent the gears when the bike blew over becaseu I left it on its stand in a hight wind - a while after I went into 1st gear and the spokes and derailleur decided to occupy the same space - which ended badly 

only problems that was the bike's fault was a broken saddle bolt - easily fixed by the LBS in Widnes (John Geddes if you want to know - tell him Mike sent you - the annoying one with the Raleigh Motus) -- I think he does other makes of ebike as well as Raleigh - although everyone seems to be having supply problems at the moment


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## gzoom (27 Nov 2020)

Surely all this depends on what you bought the eBike for? 

I drove into work yesterday as I had to pick up my daughter after school for a GP appointment than do some shopping. Haven't actually driven into work for ages, was surprised to find despite not much traffic it took me almost as long to drive as to cycle in on my eBike.

Am pretty sure I could go at the same speed if not quicker on my road bike for the same trip, but that would see me arrive at work covered in sweaty and stinking out the office.

The eBike allows me to do the commute at a reasonable pace, and get to work in a semi presentable state. I would say these things should be considered as car replacements rather than bike replacements.


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## Pale Rider (27 Nov 2020)

gzoom said:


> I would say these things should be considered as car replacements rather than bike replacements.



In your case, but we are all different.

I do very few utility miles, but have done thousands of leisure miles on my ebike.

In my case, the ebike is a bike replacement.


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## Drago (27 Nov 2020)

Im with Paley. I prefer my regular bikes for utulity riding because over any real distance theyre so much quicker. I keep the ebike for leisure riding, where the way to go quicker is to actually ride a bike slower.


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## Dave7 (27 Nov 2020)

Pale Rider said:


> In your case, but we are all different.
> 
> I do very few utility miles, but have done thousands of leisure miles on my ebike.
> 
> In my case, the ebike is a bike replacement.


I gave my lovely shiny Whyte Stirling to my son (for several reasons).
Aged 73 now, closer to 74**.
Assuming, as I said, I am fit enough come Spring the decision is standard bike Vs ebike.........at my age ebike seems to be the way to go.
**up till Spring I had no trouble doing 30+ miles but accept that can't last forever.


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## theloafer (27 Nov 2020)

had mine since April 2019 just over 2079 miles all trouble free  .. and sad to say it`s the only one i have ridden the others are up in the spare box room..best thing since sliced bread  
reise and muller supercharger rholoff gx... costly but why not


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## confusedcyclist (27 Nov 2020)

Drago said:


> ^^^ Wot he said. Thatere hasn't been a singnifcant advance in commercially available battery technology in over 15 years.
> 
> Hydrogen is where its at, and i look forward to hudrogen ebikes


Better hope that fuel cell between your legs doesn't go poof.

From my own reading around the subject, some experts in the battery field are very skeptical of significant gains in energy density of batteries which is what we need to see for improved range. When you factor in resource depletion, as more and more pile on what remains of the rare earth metals needed for the manufacture of batteries with increasing competition for their use in EVs and other hand held gadgets, we may well see the price of ebikes climbing. Musk has been harping on about his ability to eliminate cobalt for instance, but the date when batteries which don't need it keeps getting pushed back, a bit like the fusion reactor. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it may not be commercial viable. And this is before we've even mentioned that ebike makers like to make their machines more and more complex as time passes, so that people feel the need to buy the latest and greatest, adding doo-dads and whistles, just like cars, which increases manufacturing and material costs. Of course, there will always be the budget conscious brands.


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## Pale Rider (11 Dec 2020)

The glacial pace at which battery technology advances is indicated by a new factory to be built in Northumberland.

Great news for a deprived part of the country, but the factory will produce lithium ion cells of the type we've had for the last 15 years or so.

No doubt they will use the best available technology when the plant starts production in 2023.

But it means another three years and more slips by with no significant advances.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-55263255


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## tribanjules (11 Dec 2020)

theloafer said:


> had mine since April 2019 just over 2079 miles all trouble free  .. and sad to say it`s the only one i have ridden the others are up in the spare box room..best thing since sliced bread
> reise and muller supercharger rholoff gx... costly but why not
> View attachment 560418


What a cracker 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻


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## theloafer (11 Dec 2020)

tribanjules said:


> What a cracker 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻



just watched this... poss upgrade..  
R&M Delite & SuperDelite Vario/Rohloff Full Suspension Bosch eBike Video Review & Ride Test - YouTube


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