# Buying Shares



## Spiderweb (26 Mar 2020)

I am a complete newbie and I’ve just opened an online share dealing account, transferred money and bought my first lot of shares. Do any of you financial wizards have any recommendations of what companies I should be looking into with a view to investing in?


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## sleuthey (26 Mar 2020)

Me personally, Royal Mail


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## Gunk (26 Mar 2020)

If you’ve already bought some, you tell us!


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## sheddy (26 Mar 2020)

Not Petrochem...


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## vickster (26 Mar 2020)

Pharma, but the shares tend to be very costly to buy.
Check the vaccine manufacturers maybe


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## twentysix by twentyfive (26 Mar 2020)

Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

However there was a crash recently so you may be buying at the right time.

Are you doing this for the Dividends or a Buying and Selling exercise? The latter requires nimbleness in the market place and I've never found the former to return much on investment. But then I've never played. I've been given shares once or twice and not been impressed at all. Methinks better to invest in a fund where a professional (who may also get it wrong) has the full time job of playing the market. The wider the fund spreads the investment the lower the overall risk but then the overall return will also be lower. Or looked at the other way - the smaller the losses.

HTH


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## Spiderweb (26 Mar 2020)

Gunk said:


> If you’ve already bought some, you tell us!


Well I bought Lloyd’s shares. They were priced low before the Covid crash then they almost halved. Dividend yield is good, way better than current interest rates so I thought it would be a good time to buy. I’m expecting a big boost after the Covid recession but I don’t plan to sell, I fancy them long term.
Shares values have always recovered well after any crash.


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## MarkF (26 Mar 2020)

Standard Life Aberdeen, it's been a tumultuous few years but they are as low as they will go IMO, wish I had said this yesterday. Long term winner.


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## snorri (26 Mar 2020)

A request for financial advice goes out to an anonymous group of cyclists, some of whom may have even given up cycling,
You have provided insufficent information regarding your present situation, age, marital status, assets, funds available to invest, attitude to risk, etc. etc., to inform any adviser before he or she could give out useful advice tailored to suit your needs.


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## alicat (26 Mar 2020)

I wouldn't buy individual shares especially if I were asking for tips on which to buy. Have a look at a fund like Vantage Lifestrategy 60. At your own risk. All usual disclaimers apply!


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## Mike Ayling (27 Mar 2020)

alicat said:


> I wouldn't buy individual shares especially if I were asking for tips on which to buy. Have a look at a fund like Vantage Lifestrategy 60. At your own risk. All usual disclaimers apply!


Listed investment companies usually have lower cost/fee structures than most funds.


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## lane (27 Mar 2020)

The best I could recommend given limited information is an index tracker fund. In fact they are probably not a bad option anyway.

Share prices have fallen recently but for a very good reasons. Some bank shares went down in the 08 recession - it didn't necessarily make them a good buy.


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## lane (27 Mar 2020)

snorri said:


> A request for financial advice goes out to an anonymous group of cyclists, some of whom may have even given up cycling,
> You have provided insufficent information regarding your present situation, age, marital status, assets, funds available to invest, attitude to risk, etc. etc., to inform any adviser before he or she could give out useful advice tailored to suit your needs.



Could probably do worse though. For example trust all your money to a highly paid professional investor like Neil Woodford.


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## Mike Ayling (27 Mar 2020)

I bought CSL which makes vaccines about 25 years ago when it was privateised by the Aussie Government About AUD 2.40 off the prospectus AFAICR. All the "experts" said that it was a good deal at the time and did they get that right, about AUD290.00 atm
I have also had a couple of duds btw.

Mike


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## Drago (27 Mar 2020)

Big firms that will weather the storm. Oil _is_ a good one right now, over supply and an artificial drop in demand has depressed prices. It will rebound as industry recovers and demand form plastics, fuel etc increases. Ife put some money into Petronas this week and later this year or the next I expect a good return on that.

Gold fluctuates too much for my like, but silver is stable and down, firms that deal in that are a good bet.

Lithium producers are good, but I think I missed the boat on the big gains.

Have a play with the plus500 app in demo mode for a while and you'll soon get the hand of it. Returns aren't huge in percentage terms, but it beats going out and working for it.


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## SpokeyDokey (27 Mar 2020)

Spiderweb said:


> I am a complete newbie and I’ve just opened an online share dealing account, transferred money and bought my first lot of shares. Do any of you financial wizards have any recommendations of what companies I should be looking into with a view to investing in?



Not being rude but that's an odd way to go about things - usually you'd gain some knowledge of different markets etc and _then_ start to deal yourself.

However:

Google 'Share Investing Forums'.

Subscribe to the FT online.

Have a look at this - https://www.hl.co.uk/free-guides/ho...MItJHYqpC76AIVDbDtCh3ARQWnEAAYAiAAEgKvFvD_BwE

We invest with Hagreaves Lansdown but tbh I've never had the confidence or time to get involved in any way than other via a Fund Manager.


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## lane (27 Mar 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Not being rude but that's an odd way to go about things - usually you'd gain some knowledge of different markets etc and _then_ start to deal yourself.
> 
> However:
> 
> ...



Hagreaves Lansdown's favourate Fund Manager (until recently) was Neil Woodford!


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## SpokeyDokey (27 Mar 2020)

lane said:


> Hagreaves Lansdown's favourate Fund Manager (until recently) was Neil Woodford!



I know!

We had nothing invested in the 'Woodford' funds so were unscathed.


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## Tenkaykev (28 Mar 2020)

alicat said:


> I wouldn't buy individual shares especially if I were asking for tips on which to buy. Have a look at a fund like Vantage Lifestrategy 60. At your own risk. All usual disclaimers apply!


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This, a thousand times this.

I've been travelling along this road for many years, and I've read around the subject a fair bit. A low cost passively managed fund will outperform the vast majority of Active fund managers. 

When I was working I saved into a Cash ISA and built up a "retirement fund". I'd invested in a variety of shares as well over the years, not great amounts but enough to get a feeling for the ins and outs of share trading and some of the pitfalls thereof.

When I did retire I switched the cash ISA into a Self Select Stocks and Shares ISA ( you choose your own shares and how many of each)
The (15 or so) Companies that I invested in were all FTSE 100 , and spread across various sectors so as to spread the risk of any one sector falling out of favour.
I left the Portfolio alone wherever possible, and let the dividends build up before taking lump sums from the dividend "kitty" as and when I wanted to pay for a Holiday etc.

I also invested £1000 into a Vanguard Life Strategy Fund, as mentioned above by @alicat , but in my case a Lifestrategy 80 ( the numbers on the end refer to the ratio of shares to Bonds, so, for example the 80 Fund invests 80% in Stocks and Shares and 20% in Bonds, Bonds being seen as as safe and secure as it is possible to get)

The Lifestrategy Fund was chosen to act as a benchmark against my own share picking strategy and over the years it has outperformed almost all the shares that I chose. ( Unilever being one off the few notable exceptions) 

Hindsight is wonderful, even after the recent crash I'm still less than 1% down on my original investments overall, but if I'd just chucked the lot into the Vanguard Fund I'd still be ahead, and with non of the work in analysing and choosing individual shares.


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## SpokeyDokey (28 Mar 2020)

Tenkaykev said:


> ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
> This, a thousand times this.
> 
> I've been travelling along this road for many years, and I've read around the subject a fair bit. A low cost passively managed fund will outperform the vast majority of Active fund managers.
> ...



In a similar vein - I've never tried the self select/self managed route as the time involved can be high and you need to be very knowledgeable about the sectors you are investing in - or _very, very_ lucky!

On the other hand we have some of our investments in passive funds which are doing fine but our biggest gains have come from actively managed funds.

In 2003 we had a 'spare' £25000 (unexpectedly decent company dividend) to invest and we (Lovely Wife and I) put £12500 each into an actively managed fund (now held by Aviva) - one we closed 3 years ago at £46000 value to reinvest elsewhere (lower risk fund) and the other we left to see how it got along and up to the end of 2019 was valued at £51000 although this has now dropped a tad for obvious reasons.

Not a bad return at all and no credit is claimed at this end for its performance,

The above is the only time we have ever adopted a high risk investment strategy and tbh we are too scared to commit any of our other savings (Isa's, FRB's and NI Bonds) to the fluctuations of the markets - we're too old & too conservative to take the risk.


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## Moodyman (29 Mar 2020)

There's an old saying: "get out of the market when the taxi driver is telling you to get in".

No disrespect to the OP, but if you're looking for tips, then you'll be better off with the 3.40 at Kempton, or find an independent financial adviser.


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## Drago (29 Mar 2020)

I'm wary of independent financial advisers. If they're so good, why are they working for pittance as financial advisers?

I use an app to fiddle, and have the advantage of lots of free time to react instantly to a tv newsflash, or check the trends every 10 minutes on my tablet, and I've made about 15% on my original stake in a year. The markets are depressed at the moment, not much activity of any kind, so I've put most of it back into commodities that will recover well...eventually. That ought to bring some significant gains...eventually


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## Archie_tect (29 Mar 2020)

I prefer people who do stuff rather than living off the hard work of others... but then I've never understood bankers.


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## Tenkaykev (29 Mar 2020)

Drago said:


> I'm wary of independent financial advisers. If they're so good, why are they working for pittance as financial advisers?
> 
> I use an app to fiddle, and have the advantage of lots of free time to react instantly to a tv newsflash, or check the trends every 10 minutes on my tablet, and I've made about 15% on my original stake in a year. The markets are depressed at the moment, not much activity of any kind, so I've put most of it back into commodities that will recover well...eventually. That ought to bring some significant gains...eventually



After my work pension went down the tubes in the Equitable Life debacle I went to college part time. I took and passed all the exams and qualified to be a Financial advisor.
I only did it to gain a better understanding of the Finance "industry"
I carried on with my job as an Electrical Engineer as I like the challenge of fixing stuff, plus you get to have a go on Lathes and Milling machines and you're allowed to hit things with lump hammers when they get stuck 😁


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## Drago (29 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> I prefer people who do stuff rather than living off the hard work of others... but then I've never understood bankers.


Over 90% of the world wealth is made through speculation - the buying and selling of currency for profit - and commodities and share trading. The only thing being taken advantage of is market conditions,

I imagine a world 90% or more poorer. No NHS, no internet, no medicines being developed, mass starvation...

Getty once opined that people were too busy working to earn money and he's right.


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## Archie_tect (29 Mar 2020)

There you see... the world's 'wealth'... it's all imaginary money- it doesn't actually exist, it's all locked down by the richest 5% and hoarded- so it doesn't 'do' anything.


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## MarkF (29 Mar 2020)

Drago said:


> Over 90% of the world wealth is made through speculation - the buying and selling of currency for profit - and commodities and share trading. The only thing being taken advantage of is market conditions,
> 
> I imagine a world 90% or more poorer. No NHS, no internet, no medicines being developed, mass starvation...
> 
> Getty once opined that people were too busy working to earn money and he's right.



My late father was a builder and my mum used to look after all the finances after she retired early, she's accumulated a lot of money via share trading and it's a total mystery to me how she has done so as she asks me the daftest questions.


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## Moodyman (29 Mar 2020)

Drago said:


> I'm wary of independent financial advisers. If they're so good, why are they working for pittance as financial advisers?
> 
> I use an app to fiddle, and have the advantage of lots of free time to react instantly to a tv newsflash, or check the trends every 10 minutes on my tablet, and I've made about 15% on my original stake in a year. The markets are depressed at the moment, not much activity of any kind, so I've put most of it back into commodities that will recover well...eventually. That ought to bring some significant gains...eventually



Agree. If one has the knowledge or is prepared to spend a lot of time understanding the various options, DIY is the best approach.

But I don't think the OP fits this description. Asking a group of strangers on the web or mates down the pub for major investment decisions is not a wise move.


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## Eziemnaik (29 Mar 2020)

Just buy something like vanguard lifestrategy 60/40
Cheaper and more effective than anything unless you are Buffet


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## Drago (29 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> There you see... the world's 'wealth'... it's all imaginary money- it doesn't actually exist, it's all locked down by the richest 5% and hoarded- so it doesn't 'do' anything.


That's largely true, but it doesn't alter the reality of the source of wealth.


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## Archie_tect (29 Mar 2020)

Source of wealth is to work to create a surplus which one can either share out or hoard... the hoarders remove that wealth preventing everyone from having an equal share for the work they do. The hoarders then do not require to work and everyone else supports them in their idleness... and so the inequality perpetuates and reinforces itself.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

My main aim is or was to buy investment trusts with a large dividend reserve/cover. Preferably more than a year. These tend to be income biased investment trusts. Therefore high income low share growth. An example is city of London investment Trust. Which has raised its dividend every year for 53 years. This is achieved by putting money into the reserve during the good years and paying it out in the bad years.
Investment Trust do not have to trade at there actual value (net asset values) ie the underlying value of the investments they hold and rarely do. 
In a crash the share price tends to fall faster than the nav. 
Also In a normal market a share that finished the day on 200p would probably have traded at a low of 198p to high of 202p on that day. In a crash 190p to 210p or even greater would not be unusual. Investment trusts are mainly owned by retail investors...the ones that can and do panic sell, so a larger variation is more likely. 
So setting a limit order is how I bought most of the shares. I looked at what price the shares were trading at, what the highs and lows were for the day and set the limit near the low. So say I wanted to buy an Investment Trust at 120p 1000 shares for upto 7days. If the price fell to 120p with in 7 days they were bought. 

I bought city of London investment Trust which normally trades on a slight premium to its nav. Annoying it didn't give it up. Average premium for the year is 1.8% premium just checked 2.8% Friday. But at the price i paid, i will get a 6.5% dividend and at the moment I am up 9% on the share price.

Sequoia Economic Infrastructure Income Fund Ltd supposedly low risk so shouldn't have fallen much but the limit order was breached and i have it on 7.0% dividend and 8% share increase. 

No dividend on this Acorn Income Fund zero dividend preference shares. A split capital investment trust. On a discount of 6%. Still is. Redeems in 18 months which would equate to 7% annualized return. 

The latter are not quite what I planned. The rest are all around 8% dividends. Shares which if you check there 5 year share price growth is minimal to negative. Compared to a growth investment Trust ie Scottish Mortgage investment Trust (nothing to do with Scotland or Morgages) it has a share price return of over 100% over 5 years (today's prices).

Now it was assumed that the next bear market would be a product of over priced tech companies share prices falling (think .com bubble). As it happens they are more likely to gain or at least not loose out by the coronavirus. While low growth companies the main stay of income biased investment trusts are the ones that have suffered the most. 
Consequently they are the ones that will provide the big share price growth and in a relatively short period of time as they fallen the furthest......that's my guess and thats exactly what it is, a GUESS!! In the meantime I will enjoy the dividends. 

Note it is easy to pick the bottom of the market, its called the P.U.L. method. You are 100% guaranteed to buy at the bottom if you use it


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Pure
Unadulterated 
Luck
The only system guaranteed to give you perfect stock picking ability.


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## gbb (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> Pure
> Unadulterated
> Luck
> The only system guaranteed to give you perfect stock picking ability.


A former manager of mine used to do stocks and shares, he could equal his annual salary doing it but he likened it to studying form with horses, you can increase hour chances by doing the homework, but ultimately, at his level, as with the horses, it was luck as well.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Spiderweb said:


> Well I bought Lloyd’s shares. They were priced low before the Covid crash then they almost halved. Dividend yield is good, way better than current interest rates so I thought it would be a good time to buy. I’m expecting a big boost after the Covid recession but I don’t plan to sell, I fancy them long term.
> Shares values have always recovered well after any crash.


RBS are no where near there pre 2008 price. Even though they "amalgamated" everybody's shares 5 for 1. Don't know in the case of Lloyds.
The latter statement is not a prediction.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Archie_tect said:


> Source of wealth is to work to create a surplus which one can either share out or hoard... the hoarders remove that wealth preventing everyone from having an equal share for the work they do. The hoarders then do not require to work and everyone else supports them in their idleness... and so the inequality perpetuates and reinforces itself.


On the other hand the so called hoarders reinvest there surplus into the business to create a bigger surplus to reinvest into the business etc etc. The result is better paid jobs resulting in a surplus for the workers to spend on important things like beer. Dyson would be an example of someone you are envious of.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

As an aside and not a prediction can anyone find fault with investing in legal and general. Present share price (Friday) will give you a 8.5% dividend. The dividend has been increased by 7% (roughly) a year for more than 5 years. This question is question of knowledge of the downside and upside of coronavirus.


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## cisamcgu (30 Mar 2020)

8.5% dividend is fine, if the share price stays stable. 

but..

You buy £1000 of shares, if the price drops by, say, 30%, then your 8.5% is not £85 as you hoped, but now £59, and your capital is now £700, not £1000.

No such thing as a free lunch


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## greenmark (30 Mar 2020)

I'm going all in on tulips. I think the market price is ready for a recovery.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

cisamcgu said:


> 8.5% dividend is fine, if the share price stays stable.
> 
> but..
> 
> ...


You obviously can't be bothered to read. The dividend remains the same ie £85. Dividend do not fall just because the share price falls. It remains the same unless the company makes less money. As stated I expect the dividends to rise even if the company shares they own pay them less money because they have a dividend reserve. 
If you follow what i wrote I bought when the shares fell it is the equivalent to saying I bought at £700 with an 8.5% dividend. As the price falls the dividend as a percentage rises. I have no idea when the market will recover or if it will fall again and further. 
It is quite astonishing that you think that the dividend falls in proportion to the share price. Please do some research before ever consider investing.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

greenmark said:


> I'm going all in on tulips. I think the market price is ready for a recovery.


A neighbour is florist the dutch have literally bined all there tulips. The "recovery " is a long way off!!


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

cisamcgu said:


> 8.5% dividend is fine, if the share price stays stable.
> 
> but..
> 
> ...


Seriously? Staggering post


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## wafter (30 Mar 2020)

Can't help with any tips as I've never owned shares in my life. I have considered it numerous times as the potential gains are obviously attractive, but it seems that the market's one big, unsustainable, loaded ponzi scheme where the uneducated little man is mostly going to come off worst at the hands of "professional" traders and trading algorithms. 

Having watched the markets for a fair time it seems that a company's productivity is now largely irrelevant to its share price (massive b*llock-droppings notwithstanding of course) with the biggest effect on the markets as a whole being government fiscal policy and the rampant speculation that surrounds it; with everything (IMO) typically being massively over-valued thanks to government money printing. 

I think the lastest crashes have really only taken the QE-driven froth off the markets and returned them to what I'd consider a more legit value. The limited sources I've looked at suggest another, shortish-term QE-led rally before a much longer and sustained downturn. So as a short term pump-and-dump exercise it might be worth buying in. 

I'm personally less convinced by the long-term argument as I view the whole stock market as a crooked, distasteful and unsustainable mechanism for speculative "professional" spivs to profit off the legitimate productivity of others, while I think we may be nearing the natural end of the current financial system as we know it..


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## vickster (30 Mar 2020)

I'm not sure I'd be investing in insurance companies in light of the enormous impact CV19 is likely to have


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

wafter said:


> Can't help with any tips as I've never owned shares in my life. I have considered it numerous times as the potential gains are obviously attractive, but it seems that the market's one big, unsustainable, loaded ponzi scheme where the uneducated little man is mostly going to come off worst at the hands of "professional" traders and trading algorithms.
> 
> Having watched the markets for a fair time it seems that a company's productivity is now largely irrelevant to its share price (massive b*llock-droppings notwithstanding of course) with the biggest effect on the markets as a whole being government fiscal policy and the rampant speculation that surrounds it; with everything (IMO) typically being massively over-valued thanks to government money printing.
> 
> ...


Ignoring your ignorance your final statement implies the end of all forms of business and therefore jobs. Anarchy will reign. Therefore money will have no use. 
If QE had not taken place we would have entered a depression leading to spiralling deflation, where consumers and businesses wont buy good/invest because they believe the price of the goods will fall further. Which of course it does. 
Companies with high productivity have proportionally higher share prices ie Amazon, google etc. 
The main complaint about the Conservatives was a lack of fiscal policy. QE is not fiscal policy. 
The government is talking about borrowing money not QE although no doubt some of that may take place. Personally I believe this is the time to experiment with helicopter money (aka helicopter drop)a mix of both fiscal and monetary policy (via QE)
PS share prices in the UK were not considered to be high based on average P/E ratios


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> I'm not sure I'd be investing in insurance companies in light of the enormous impact CV19 is likely to have


How will it impact on Legal and general profits is the question


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## cisamcgu (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> Seriously? Staggering post


I'm not sure if you are saying I have got it wrong (which is very, very possible), or that this is interesting ?


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

wafter said:


> Can't help with any tips as I've never owned shares in my life. I have considered it numerous times as the potential gains are obviously attractive, but it seems that the market's one big, unsustainable, loaded ponzi scheme where the uneducated little man is mostly going to come off worst at the hands of "professional" traders and trading algorithms.
> 
> Having watched the markets for a fair time it seems that a company's productivity is now largely irrelevant to its share price (massive b*llock-droppings notwithstanding of course) with the biggest effect on the markets as a whole being government fiscal policy and the rampant speculation that surrounds it; with everything (IMO) typically being massively over-valued thanks to government money printing.
> 
> ...


Your views are product of paranoia and a lack bottle when it comes to investing.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

cisamcgu said:


> I'm not sure if you are saying I have got it wrong (which is very, very possible), or that this is interesting ?


You haven't got it wrong you have got it very very wrong. But at least you have admitted to the possibility....respect!


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## vickster (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> How will it impact on Legal and general profits is the question


Don’t know, I’ve not got a crystal ball 

It was a general observation for the OP, nothing to do with you


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> I'm not sure I'd be investing in insurance companies in light of the enormous impact CV19 is likely to have


It what way will the CV19 impact on Legal and General?


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## vickster (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> It what way will the CV19 impact on Legal and General?


I have no idea, you’re the expert surely?
I’ve not found a crystal ball in the last minute or two


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## cisamcgu (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> You haven't got it wrong you have got it very very wrong. But at least you have admitted to the possibility....respect!


Then please enlighten me, since that is how I thought it works with ITs


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Don’t know, I’ve not got a crystal ball
> 
> It was a general observation for the OP, nothing to do with you



If you don't know why are you saying don't invest? Which implies you do know. Or think you know. I am allowed to join in the conversation xx


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> I have no idea, you’re the expert surely?
> I’ve not found a crystal ball in the last minute or two


I have never said I am an expert. I am testing peoples knowledge.


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## roubaixtuesday (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> Note it is easy to pick the bottom of the market, its called the P.U.L. method. *You are 100% guaranteed to buy at the bottom if you use it*


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## vickster (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> If you don't know why are you saying don't invest? Which implies you do know. Or think you know. I am allowed to join in the conversation xx


In insurance Cos generally? Because they are going to be hit with enormous bills which I expect will not do their business any good - this just comes from an observation. I have no knowledge (I did have a shares ISA until the shoot hit the fan a couple of weeks ago, I've chopped it in before it lost any more and I'll open a new shares ISA on 6 April).

You appear to have more experience than someone like me who has virtually none (I did make a few quid from Royal Mail shares, although probably sold before they hit their peak)


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## wafter (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> Ignoring your ignorance your final statement implies the end of all forms of business and therefore jobs. Anarchy will reign. Therefore money will have no use.
> If QE had not taken place we would have entered a depression leading to spiralling deflation, where consumers and businesses wont buy good/invest because they believe the price of the goods will fall further. Which of course it does.
> Companies with high productivity have proportionally higher share prices ie Amazon, google etc.
> The main complaint about the Conservatives was a lack of fiscal policy. QE is not fiscal policy.
> ...


I don't see my final statement as spelling "an end to all forms of business" at all. The basic concept of trade can exist without the need for a parasitic financial system that allows those who actually produce nothing of tangible value to profit off the backs of those who do. Trade existed long before the concept of shares, the stock market and all the increasingly complex financial derivitives and investment vehicles it's spawned, no?

I don't doubt that relative share prices are affected by productivity, but they're all inflated across the board by speculation underpinned by cheap debt and free government money. QE and low interest rates might be useful short-term tools in a time of crisis, but they appear to be the new normal and an increasingly ineffective method to prop up slowing economies in the prepetual, ridiculous pursuit of infinite growth and un-ending profit.

So instead of deflation we've had rampant asset inflation as the cheap / free money has found it's way into any speculative "investment vehicle" going; pricing people out of the housing market and exacerbating wealth inequality. Who's to say what will come next, but it's clear to many that the global economy is becoming increasingly broken.

My views are the product of unwiliness to buy into a system that I see as inherently corrupt, exploititive, unsustainable and destructive.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

cisamcgu said:


> Then please enlighten me, since that is how I thought it works with ITs


An IT owns shares in other companies who pay them dividends. These are then paid out to the investors in the IT. Income biased investment trusts will have a dividend reserve a rainy day fund. So if the average pay out from the company shares they own fall they can continue to increase their dividends. If the share price of the investment trust falls that doesn't mean the companies paying dividends to the IT will reduce there payments to the Investment Trust. Example The investment trust is trading at £1 and is paying a 6p dividend (equal to 6%). The price of the investment Trust falls to 50p if they continue to pay 6p the dividend is now 12% BUT only if you buy it at 50p. If you owned at 100p you have lost 50% of your capital but you are still getting 6p dividend. My aim was to buy at 50p which gets me 6p dividend equal to 12%. And or if the share price recovers I will have a 100% increase in capital. NOTE the latter is an example only.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

cisamcgu said:


> Not sure it actually works like that, but I am no expert, and you are, so I will bow to your greater knowledge


Apologies I am not that good at explaining things. In what way dont you think it works that way?


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## cisamcgu (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> An IT owns shares in other companies who pay them dividends. These are then paid out to the investors in the IT. Income biased investment trusts will have a dividend reserve a rainy day fund. So if the average pay out from the company shares they own fall they can continue to increase their dividends. If the share price of the investment trust falls that doesn't mean the companies paying dividends to the IT will reduce there payments to the Investment Trust. Example The investment trust is trading at £1 and is paying a 6p dividend (equal to 6%). The price of the investment Trust falls to 50p if they continue to pay 6p the dividend is now 12% BUT only if you buy it at 50p. If you owned at 100p you have lost 50% of your capital but you are still getting 6p dividend. My aim was to buy at 50p which gets me 6p dividend equal to 12%. And or if the share price recovers I will have a 100% increase in capital. NOTE the latter is an example only.


Not sure it actually works like that, but I am no expert, and you are, so I will bow to your greater knowledge


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

As an aside exchange traded funds (etf) which I dont follow are the way a vast amount of private investors invest, maybe the majority. They are index funds. So when people invest in an index fund the manager buys shares proportionally to the index. When you sell them the reverse happens (ignoring the possibility at times of equilibrium in supply and demand). So we have the present crash and loads of private investors sell out. The underlying shares are sold in proportion to the index. The good the bad and the ugly are all sold proportionally creating anomalies. Tesco and Easyjet are sold of as if they both effected the same. Now this doesn't mean that on the market the price falls by the same percentage as there will be buyers and sellers who are not using etfs but the good will fall when they shouldn't. Something that is a product of this crash.


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## Archie_tect (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> On the other hand the so called hoarders reinvest there surplus into the business to create a bigger surplus to reinvest into the business etc etc. The result is better paid jobs resulting in a surplus for the workers to spend on important things like beer. Dyson would be an example of someone you are envious of.


Oh Notafettler.... you and I are so far apart ideologically, there's no further benefit from discussing it... but I do like the idea that not hoarding billions of £ would make me envious of those that do... that is funny! Thank you .


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## Eziemnaik (30 Mar 2020)

https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/24/investing/warren-buffett-annual-letter-hedge-fund-bet/index.html
If anybody still invests with their fund manager...
Basically most index funds most of the time outperform individual picks
Plus keep in mind overhead costs ( in case of some etf and platforms less than 1%)


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Drago said:


> Big firms that will weather the storm. Oil _is_ a good one right now, over supply and an artificial drop in demand has depressed prices.
> Have a play with the plus500 app in demo mode for a while and you'll soon get the hand of it. Returns aren't huge in percentage terms, but it beats going out and working for it.


It should be remembered that oil prices are/were held up artificially by opec and Russia by keeping supplies at a lot less than they were capable of producing. Also when prices rise (when the latter restrict supply) US shale oil becomes profitable for export. It is not at the present oil price. Russia has sufficient foreign currencies reserves to sit out a long oil price recession and Saudi to a lesser degree. Russia would be happy to make US shale oil producers insolvent. Shale oil has not been the bonanza that was expected. Plenty of insolvencies with out the present price drop. Russia is not a friend of the US.
That said Royal Dutch Shell have managed to increase (or at least hold) there dividend since the second world war. BP (ignoring deep water horizon) have also managed to be very reliable dividend payers. (Feel free not to quote me!)
Both are mainstays of income biased investments. Prior to the great recession banks were the mainstay of income investors.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Drago said:


> Have a play with the plus500 app in demo mode for a while and you'll soon get the hand of it. Returns aren't huge in percentage terms, but it beats going out and working for it.


I haven't got the bottle to use the plus 500 app in real mode. Most people make losses on it. Even the experts. More importantly I can't be arsed doing the research. On the other hand plus500 have announced they expect profits to rise significantly this year. As opposed to the previous predictions of a fall. This is because the countries where they sell services are increasing regulations which is impacting there profits. Good option for a short term profit.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/24/investing/warren-buffett-annual-letter-hedge-fund-bet/index.html
> If anybody still invests with their fund manager...
> Basically most index funds most of the time outperform individual picks
> Plus keep in mind overhead costs ( in case of some etf and platforms less than 1%)


Investment Trust rarely have charges above 1%. Correct index funds do on average beat fund managers but there is plenty of fund managers that do beat indexs. In fact there is no other way!! Woodford was one? Until he decided he could just simply become an expert on start ups which he certainly wasn't. Anthony Bolton who was considered one great fund managers, another that thought he could become an expert at something that wasn't part of his comfort zone on Chinese growth companies again a failure.
On the other hand train (of lindsay train) sticks with what he knows. I put a bit into Smithson investment trust, run by highly rated manager who is sticking to his comfort zone. Lucky me put in a very low limit order which got me them sooo cheap. The emphasis is on luck.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> In insurance Cos generally? Because they are going to be hit with enormous bills which I expect will not do their business any good - this just comes from an observation. I have no knowledge (I did have a shares ISA until the shoot hit the fan a couple of weeks ago, I've chopped it in before it lost any more and I'll open a new shares ISA on 6 April).
> 
> You appear to have more experience than someone like me who has virtually none (I did make a few quid from Royal Mail shares, although probably sold before they hit their peak)


Annoying my answer has gone missing. 
So again.
Legal and general have life insurance AND a travel insurance business. Both of which are reinsured as required. This puts a limit to there losses. 
The death rate from covid19 is unlikely to effect there profits from life insurance anyway. 
Should that be wrong then Legal and general will end up with a significant increase in profits albeit short term. Legal and General have a huge annuity business.


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## Eziemnaik (30 Mar 2020)

While investment trusts may have rarely higher initial cost than 1% there is plenty of ongoing extra charges that may elevate it well above. Performance tax, transaction tax, interes tax etc etc, 
I think very few trusts available to common people will compete long term (talking decades) with for example vanguard sp500 etf or LS80 after all costs are included.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> While investment trusts may have rarely higher initial cost than 1% there is plenty of ongoing extra charges that may elevate it well above. Performance tax, transaction tax, interes tax etc etc,
> I think very few trusts available to common people will compete long term (talking decades) with for example vanguard sp500 etf or LS80 after all costs are included.


Ongoing charges at City of London investment Trust are 
Annual management charge:	0.33% of Net Assets
Performance fee:	No
Ongoing charge:	0.39%
Reasonable I think you will agree?
Not sure what you mean "trusts available to common people" all Investment trusts are on the stockmarket and therefore available to us peasants!!


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Just had a look at two investment trusts.
City of London down -2.25p (-0.71%)
Scottish mortgage up 15.30p (2.87%)
The divergence between growth IT and income biased ITs continues . The ultimate proof that you can't predict the market.


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## Eziemnaik (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> Ongoing charges at City of London investment Trust are
> Annual management charge: 0.33% of Net Assets
> Performance fee: No
> Ongoing charge: 0.39%
> ...


I stand corrected regarding charges ( my rule of a thumb anything below 1 sounds good)
I thought there is plenty of trusts with high minmum investment though
As for CTY the yields from last years are not very exciting ( and I am not talking about last month)
You mentioned Scottish Mortgage which looks to my untrained eye like a much better proposition


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Definitely, (SM) based on past performance! But it hasn't fallen anything worth talking about so not much to recover (trough to peak). Look at the high for the year on city of London. That's the possible recovery. With dividends to boot. Note it's rule of thumb that as you get closer to retirement you should be investing for dividends not growth. As a growth shares tend to be more volatile. Oops not this time! 
Size of trust and where they invest dictates costs. So my example is not an average.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

CTY
Open:
*319.50p*
Year high:
*448.50p
roughly a 40% gain to be had.
not a brilliant example as there is fair bit more around with bigger falls. 

it is 25% for Scottish mortgage. But as I said CTY as is not great example of falls.*


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> I thought there is plenty of trusts with high minmum investment though




not sure what you mean. The minimum investment is one share in all investment trusts. They are companies on the stock market.


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

A better example
Perpetual income and growth
Opening price
*184.60p*
Year high
342p
Year low
157p
Based on present price 80% gain to get back to year high.
Present dividend 7.75%
Better still if you had it closer to the bottom!!


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## Eziemnaik (30 Mar 2020)

Now though who says it is close to the bottom yet hehehe


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Now though who says it is close to the bottom yet hehehe


Very true.


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## PeteXXX (30 Mar 2020)

Wait until Warren Buffet starts to buy back in....


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> Wait until Warren Buffet starts to buy back in....


Hasn't he? He has been buying Apple for ages.

"Apple has nearly doubled in value for Buffett
At the end of 2018, Berkshire Hathaway's cost basis in Apple stock was $36.044 billion. Berkshire owned 254.5 million shares at the end of the third quarter, which would be worth $66.9 billion at Apple's current stock price of $262 per share.17 Nov 2019"


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## PeteXXX (30 Mar 2020)

That was then, this is now..


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Spiderweb said:


> Well I bought Lloyd’s shares. They were priced low before the Covid crash then they almost halved. Dividend yield is good, way better than current interest rates so I thought it would be a good time to buy. I’m expecting a big boost after the Covid recession but I don’t plan to sell, I fancy them long term.
> Shares values have always recovered well after any crash.



https://www.moneyobserver.com/news/...il&utm_campaign=MOgold300320 (1)&utm_content=


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Pharma, but the shares tend to be very costly to buy.
> Check the vaccine manufacturers maybe


Little profit in vaccines add in the amount of companies trying to produce one and expect the market will be flooded with vaccines. Personally I think the pharmaceutical companies are working on the vaccines to protect themselves from bad publicity, as in they couldn't be bothered. 
On the other hand the testing machines are flying of the production lines. Some will be able to detect the virus in a sample with in 10 minutes. Technology!!


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## vickster (30 Mar 2020)

Couldn’t be bothered? About what?

I was discussing with a friend, apparently none of the 5 major global vaccine manufacturers have been engaged to manufacture a Covid vaccine yet


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Couldn’t be bothered? About what?
> 
> I was discussing with a friend, apparently none of the 5 major global vaccine manufacturers have been engaged to manufacture a Covid vaccine yet



"Big Pharma companies and biotechs are racing to come up with an effective treatment for the Covid-19 novel coronavirus."
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/30/investing/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccines-drugs/index.html


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Couldn’t be bothered? About what?


Not very well explained. I meant the pharmaceutical companies didn't want to look like they couldn't be bothered as it would be bad publicity.


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## vickster (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> Big Pharma companies and biotechs are racing to come up with an effective treatment for the Covid-19 novel coronavirus.
> https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/30/investing/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccines-drugs/index.html


Research and manufacture of millions of doses isn't the same infrastructure however


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Research and manufacture of millions of doses isn't the same infrastructure however


I have no idea of what your point is?


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

vickster said:


> Pharma, but the shares tend to be very costly to buy.


Could you explain what you mean as in costly to buy. An example would be adequate.


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## vickster (30 Mar 2020)

Notafettler said:


> Could you explain what you mean as in costly to buy. An example would be adequate.


 as in the cost of each share


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

Hi a share that cost £1 can be 10 times more expensive than one that cost a £100. You do understand that?


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## Notafettler (30 Mar 2020)

The price of the share divided by its earnings (profits) per share is the definition of price
Company A shares are trading at £100 and the profits per share are £10. You are buying on a multiple of 10. You are paying 10 times the profits. 
Company B are trading at £1 per share and makes 1p per share in profits therefore its trading on a multiple of 100. You are paying 100 times the profits. 
Therefore company B is 10 times more expensive than company A.

The latter could also be reflected in the dividends ie if both gave out half there profits in dividends then a investment of £1000 in company A gets you £50 in dividends while a £1000 investment in company B gets you £5 in dividends.
Just examples


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## Notafettler (31 Mar 2020)

Spiderweb said:


> Well I bought Lloyd’s shares. They were priced low before the Covid crash then they almost halved. Dividend yield is good, way better than current interest rates so I thought it would be a good time to buy. I’m expecting a big boost after the Covid recession but I don’t plan to sell, I fancy them long term.
> Shares values have always recovered well after any crash.



https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/20...ash-im-not-buying-as-dividend-cut-fears-grow/


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## PeteXXX (1 Apr 2020)

If you have Bank shares, they are not paying Dividends for, possibly, the next 9 months.

Sky News linkie


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## Globalti (1 Apr 2020)

Givaudan Switzerland. You won't lose.


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## Notafettler (1 Apr 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...08532a0e665b86#block-5e843d7a8f08532a0e665b86


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## Notafettler (1 Apr 2020)

Globalti said:


> Givaudan Switzerland. You won't lose.


That's completely out of order. That's not suggestion its guarantee. Are you prepared to pay for any losses? If not do not guarantee a share price will go up.


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## Notafettler (1 Apr 2020)

PeteXXX said:


> Wait until Warren Buffet starts to buy back in....


I forgot to say he generally buys US shares. Not sure if the turn around will be synchronized. Also he is quite secretive about when he starts to buy. He only let's the market know he bought shares in particular companies when he has to ie when his shares are above certain percentage. He doesn't claim his timing is perfect.


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## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

Why it is time to short oil...

View: https://twitter.com/SebCochard_11/status/1245598977589776384?s=20


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## Notafettler (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Why it is time to short oil...
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/SebCochard_11/status/1245598977589776384?s=20



Yep as I said. US oil simply can't compete in a low oil price environment. Shorting oil
Is Either borrowing shares of institutes who hold oil companies shares and selling on the market and buying back when the shares fall. The institute's get fees based on the time there borrowed. Obviously not available to the peasants. 
I assume the other options are contracts for a difference? No interest not prepared to take the risk. Not competent enough might be a better way of putting it!


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## Notafettler (2 Apr 2020)

Note US shale oil maybe competitive within the US and if the US have any common sense they will help out the shale oil companies. There is nothing wrong with being self sufficient.


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## SpokeyDokey (2 Apr 2020)

Globalti said:


> Givaudan Switzerland. You won't lose.



If you will personally underwrite thate advice; I'll give it a shot.


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## SpokeyDokey (2 Apr 2020)

Thanks to whoever pointed in the direction of Vanguard.

Just trying to get my head around all the different funds prior to dabbling.


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## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Thanks to whoever pointed in the direction of Vanguard.
> 
> Just trying to get my head around all the different funds prior to dabbling.


Read some advice first
Rule of a thumb is closer you are to retirement less shares more bonds etc
So instead of index tracker you would be better off with maybe LifeStrategy 40/60 or 60/40
Keep in mind we are finally in the bear market so might be wise to locate money in safer options for the time being


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## SpokeyDokey (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Read some advice first
> Rule of a thumb is closer you are to retirement less shares more bonds etc
> So instead of index tracker you would be better off with maybe LifeStrategy 40/60 or 60/40
> Keep in mind we are finally in the bear market so might be wise to locate money in safer options for the time being



Without meaning to sound crass we are pretty well off tbh and all but 8% of our reserves are locked up quite safely in ISA's, Fixed Rate Bonds and some NS&I Bonds so we are not massively driven by short-term safety as things stand.

We have some more-liquid savings that have accumulated in a Santander 123 account that we were going to put into another Cash ISA or FRB but really want to have a further punt with a Stocks and Shares ISA at the start of the new tax year and whilst markets are low. We will be happy with an overall 10% of our total reserves exposed to stock market variations.

I'm just trying to get my head around what the different funds do and there is a fair bit of reading up as you say.

Thanks for your reply.


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## Eziemnaik (2 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Why it is time to short oil...
> 
> View: https://twitter.com/SebCochard_11/status/1245598977589776384?s=20



This didnt age that well...


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## Notafettler (3 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Read some advice first
> Rule of a thumb is closer you are to retirement less shares more bonds etc
> So instead of index tracker you would be better off with maybe LifeStrategy 40/60 or 60/40
> Keep in mind we are finally in the bear market so might be wise to locate money in safer options for the time being


Alas no, people have very little bonds in a retirement portfolio. The only way you can live off a bond when you retire nowadays is to buy junk bonds. Interest rates are just to low. 

I will now give an example of what is happening/happened in the bond market. 
This is an example based on all things being equal. Company specific will also have an effect. An example of company specific. Carnival (cruise ships) has just borrowed a vast sum of money.....at 11.5% interest?! 

So a bond is sold/issued at £100 and 5% interest. The bond pays £5 a year NOT 5%. If the bond goes up in price to £200 the company/government will not pay £10 it will only pay £5. Therefore it is actually trading at 2.5% interest (if you are a buyer). If you're seller and you bought it at the issue price you will still be getting £5 but you have 100% capital gain if you sell. 
The Bond will always be called a 5% bond no matter what it costs to buy.
Now if the bond moves up and down in direct relationship to Bank of England interest rates then that will be reflected in the price of the bond. So bank of England interest rates are 3% and the bond is trading at par £100 and £5 a year interest. If the bank of England lowers interest rates to 2%. The 5% bond will rise in price so the actual interest rate is 4%. IE the bond will trade at £128.
£5 ÷ 128 = 4%
If the Bank of England lowers to 1% it will trade at 3% and £165 
£5 ÷ 165 = 3%.
And of course everything is reversed if bank of England raises interest rates from 3% to 4%
The bond now must trade at 6% therefore its price falls to £80 (roughly!)
£5 ÷ £80 = 6%
This is meant as an example. There are many variables to take into account ie company specific and redemption date etc. Another for instance!! if the bond is redeemed next year at £100 then there is no chance of it tading at £80 as you are going to get £100 in a years time...a 25% gain if bought at £80. 
Bank of England interest rates are 0.1% at the moment any increase interest rates will mean bond prices will fall and the bond holders will be getting exactly the same return but the capital value of the bond will have fallen. 
Bonds = shite. 
The higher the interest rate the higher the risk 
The lower the interest rates the lower the risk. 
As stated earlier if you want to live on the return from a bond then see if Carnival the cruise ship company has any on the stockmarket...and say goodbye to your money!!
As a further aside the return on bonds don't rise with inflation. Company dividends over the long run always (on average) beat inflation.


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## Eziemnaik (4 Apr 2020)

That is until company stops paying dividends...


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## RoadRider400 (8 Apr 2020)

Strongly suggest you stick to companies with strong balance sheets and low debts that have been oversold. Perhaps look into oil companies with low extraction costs because they are struggling due to both low demand and the breakdown in the OPEC deal. Both I expect to be resolved this time next year.


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## Notafettler (9 Apr 2020)

RoadRider400 said:


> Strongly suggest you stick to companies with strong balance sheets and low debts that have been oversold. Perhaps look into oil companies with low extraction costs because they are struggling due to both low demand and the breakdown in the OPEC deal. Both I expect to be resolved this time next year.


Faultless except for the expectation of when it will be resolved. Who knows. And as Saudi and Russia can hold out for sometime I am not sure your right....or wrong! In fact for them not to sort out there difference soon will cost them a lot of money, which they have but do they want to spend it?? I am going to guess at ..... within 4 months.


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## Notafettler (9 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> I stand corrected regarding charges ( my rule of a thumb anything below 1 sounds good)
> I thought there is plenty of trusts with high minmum investment though
> As for CTY the yields from last years are not very exciting ( and I am not talking about last month)
> You mentioned Scottish Mortgage which looks to my untrained eye like a much better proposition


You quoted yields? Yields are dividends not share price increases. The yield on city of London is 12 times that of Scottish mortgage. 

Using HL
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/p/perpetual-income-and-growth-inv-tst-ord-10p
And
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/scottish-mortgage-it-ordinary-shares-5p


Based on exactly one month ago
Scottish mortgage investment Trust share price has increased by 9.8% and it pays 0.52% dividend 
Perpetual income and growth investment Trust share price has decreased by 13.24% and is paying 6.25% dividend. 
I bought on the 27/03/2020 and paid 184.6285p giving me just short of an 8%dividend and a share price increase of 18.77% (including costs).
At the time it was trading on 26% discount which means I paid 74p for every 100p worth of assets. 
Presently trading on an unusually high of 12.6% discount. So paying 87.4p for 100p worth of assets. 
On the 27/04/2020 it will show my share price increase of 18.77%.
Double Scottish mortgage. 
The lower they fall the higher they can rise to get back to peak price......in theory!!
As stated much earlier growth companies (techs etc) have unusually stood well compared to previous bear markets. 
Also, approaching death...sorry retirement you should be looking for high dividends and not growth shares as the latter are far more volatile.....well normally!
Of course if you are after a regular income you ain't going to get it from a growth companies. 

PS the long term growth (5 year) in perpetual and income share price is shite. Investment trusts have a board of directors they sacked the manager 2 days ago.


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## RoadRider400 (9 Apr 2020)

Notafettler said:


> *Faultless except for the expectation of when it will be resolved*. Who knows. And as Saudi and Russia can hold out for sometime I am not sure your right....or wrong! In fact for them not to sort out there difference soon will cost them a lot of money, which they have but do they want to spend it?? I am going to guess at ..... within 4 months.


Thats the question we dont have an answer for yet. I am content in the belief that these low prices are not in any of the producers interests (obviously). There will be a bit of negotiation and a couple of dented egos but at the end of the day money talks so I expect within a few months or a year at the absolute longest. As long as you dont need to cash in your investment for a year then oil is a reasonable bet. Plus quantitative easing will always find a way into the markets and bolster share prices. The money printing machines governments worldwide are currently operating are on a scale seldom ever seen.


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## Notafettler (22 Apr 2020)

Interesting facts?? on the crash 
https://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/how-coronavirus-has-changed-the-way-we-look-at-shares


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## gavroche (23 Apr 2020)

Well, after reading your very interesting posts, I have decided that capitalism is not for me and my money will remain in the building society ISA, even if it is not making anything. It is there if I want it and that's good enough for me. I am not striving to be a wealthy man ,so long as I can pay my bills and have a bit left over, that's good enough for me. The more money you have , the more you worry about losing it so I am happy the way I am. Good luck to you all with your investments and I wish you well but not for me.


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## Notafettler (23 Apr 2020)

As you live in a capitalist country you have little choice. If your firm goes bankrupt and you lose your job that's capitalism. If you have a pension you are investing in a capitalist society, As is putting money in a building society.


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## Notafettler (24 Apr 2020)

https://www.moneyobserver.com/news/...l&utm_campaign=MOwin5k230420 (1)&utm_content=
Interesting for those seeking an income


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## nickyboy (24 Apr 2020)

I am often asked for share tips and general share trading/investment advice (my business is closely connected to the corporate finance sector)

My advice, without exception, is don't do it unless you're happy for it to be a hobby where you expect to lose a bit of money in the long run (like most hobbies). About 80% of all retail investors lose money. The 20% that make money either are very experienced (having probably lost money in the past) or have access to inside information (which is illegal but happens regularly). 

The reason (apart from making stupid investment decisions) is that the spread works against you. The spread is the difference between the price someone will sell you the share to you and the price someone will buy the shares from you. This is largely a function of how liquid the share is (ie how often it is bought and sold). So shares like HSBC have a very narrow spread; the buy and sell prices are almost the same. But these are traded by thousands of experts. They analyse companies like HSBC all day long. Beating them is all but impossible. Smaller companies aren't researched by big investors so you can find bargains. But the spread on these is large, often more than 10%. So if you buy a share in a smaller company, it would have to increase by 10% just for you to get your buy price back. It's a very tough game


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## Notafettler (25 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> . About 80% of all retail investors lose money. The 20% that make money either are very experienced (having probably lost money in the past) or have access to inside information (which is illegal but happens regularly).


Can you provide any evidence to support these views and allegations?
80% of retail investors dont lose money. Specially as the majority invest in etfs. It is highly unlikely that 80% of people with self invested personal pension make losses if they did the government would ban them.

A 10% spread on poorly researched companies? There is no such thing as poorly researched company nowadays. Warren Buffets cigar butt companies dont exist anymore.

The market makers spread (bid to offer or ask) is a based on liquidity AND competition. One market maker no competition....and lots of risk for the market maker. Despite that a 10% spread is very very rare.

Let's look at mj Gleeson, not that small a company but shares are tightly held. Or put another way bought and held longer than the average. I have seen spreads of 600p (sell) 640 (buy) it does vary though. It would appear to be difficult to make a profit on them? But the reason the spread is so wide is people hold for a lot longer than normal for companies of that size implying the opposite of nickyboy ie profitable.


The experts advice is buy and hold. Or put another way you will make losses by panicking.

As an aside I wasn't willing to buy mj Gleeson because of the spread but a bargain is a bargain no matter what the spread. The spread today is 704 sell 736 buy, very large. It could be larger when the market is open.
I Bought at 580 using a limit order. I am up including all buying costs And the spread by 20.8%. A bargain is a bargain and hold long term.

And I have no insider information (I didn't know in advance about the covid19).


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## Eziemnaik (25 Apr 2020)

I thought the expert advice was to park money in etfs
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/09/08/warren-buffetts-investing-plan-for-his-family-why.aspx


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## Notafettler (25 Apr 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> I thought the expert advice was to park money in etfs
> https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/09/08/warren-buffetts-investing-plan-for-his-family-why.aspx


It is and for most rightly so. If you want an investment you don't (Normally) want to keep an eye on that's the way to go.
But investment trusts are companies on the stockmarket which invest in other companies like funds and essentially like etf.
But investment trusts dont have to trade at the underlying value. Some trade well below there underlying value ( defined as NAV) and some above.
For one or more of 3 reasons (trading below NAV)
1 the trust is doing badly bad stock picking.
2 the investment strategy of the trust is out of fashion.
3 The stock market has crashed.
In the latter case it is supply and demand.
So if the shares are 90p and the net assets values are 100p then you are buying at a discount of 10% .
If the trust has dividend bias you are also getting 10% higher dividend.
Example perpetual income and growth managers strategy not working.
Traded at average discount of 16% over previous 12 month. fell further to 26% discount. Which means that I was buying 100p worth of NAV for 74p with the appropriate higher dividend.
Furthermore dividend bias investment trusts have a dividend reserve built up during the good years. Most will be expecting 30% less income this year but will be increasing there dividend. As per normal. Using the dividend reserves.
etf and funds cannot do this.

As the Bof E interest rates are so low these investment trusts have moved to narrower discounts or higher premiums. Meaning I have decent capital gains and high dividends. None of this is possible with etfs or funds. In fact illegal.

So although etfs maybe the way to go in "normal markets " they are not necessarily always best.
Back to perpetual income and growth
16% discount on average last year.
Fell to 26% during crash (bought)
Now 12%

Another example but in this case non investment trusts
Legal and general fell so far that's dividend fell so far that I was able to buy with a 10% dividend. The PRA suggested insurance companies should cancel their dividends this year L&G and Aviva told them where to go.
Latest news from L&G

*L&G TO TAP DEBT MARKET AFTER STRONG QUARTER*
(Sharecast News) - Legal & General said it would issue debt to take advantage of business opportunities after reporting strong trading in the first three months of 2020.
The life insurer said business in the three months to the end of March was broadly in line with 2019. All its businesses grew apart from its early-stage investment operation, which was hit by a halt to housebuilding.

"L&G said it intended to issue debt to capitalise on low interest rates to raise funds for business growth. It did not say how much debt it would issue.

The FTSE 100 company bucked the trend for insurers cancelling dividends by saying in early April it would press ahead with its final payout for 2019. It did so despite the Bank of England making it clear it wanted insurance dividends cancelled during the Covid-19 crisis.

In Friday's trading update L&G did not mention its dividend but it stressed the strength of its business and its contribution to wider society.

L&G said it paid 96% of life insurance and critical illness claims in the first quarter - the same level as in 2019. It also said it had kept all its employees on at full pay and was speeding up its ?20m sponsorship of Edinburgh university's research into elderly care. It is offering free accommodation for health service workers at build to rent sites.

Chief Executive Nigel Wilson said: "Legal & General's outstanding frontline staff have continued to help provide more certainty for our millions of insurance and pension customers who we recognise are often under pressure as a result of Covid-19. Our business remains robust and is performing broadly in line with the prior year despite tremendous volatility and disruption. Our current strength underpins our future focus."

I like everything about the company specifically the dividend I will be getting!!


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## nickyboy (25 Apr 2020)

Notafettler said:


> Can you provide any evidence to support these views and allegations?
> 80% of retail investors dont lose money. Specially as the majority invest in etfs. It is highly unlikely that 80% of people with self invested personal pension make losses if they did the government would ban them.
> 
> A 10% spread on poorly researched companies? There is no such thing as poorly researched company nowadays. Warren Buffets cigar butt companies dont exist anymore.
> ...


There are loads of sub £50m market cap stocks with spreads exceeding 10% on AIM and the Standard Segment of the Main List. Most of these have no research written either independently or by their broker. To give an example I invested in a company recently with a market cap of £11m. The spread is currently 22%. But if the stars align I stand to make about 3x return. Completely off radar, completely unresearched

Regarding the 80% number it seems to be widely quoted. I did ask my broker (the main guy at a brokerage with several hundred trading clients). He said most of the active traders lost money


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## Notafettler (25 Apr 2020)

nickyboy said:


> There are loads of sub £50m market cap stocks with spreads exceeding 10% on AIM and the Standard Segment of the Main List. Most of these have no research written either independently or by their broker. To give an example I invested in a company recently with a market cap of £11m. The spread is currently 22%. But if the stars align I stand to make about 3x return. Completely off radar, completely unresearched


 you are hopeful more than just the stars to align! For instance how do you come up with 3× ?


nickyboy said:


> Regarding the 80% number it seems to be widely quoted. I did ask my broker (the main guy at a brokerage with several hundred trading clients). He said most of the active traders lost money


I was unaware you were talking about traders. I assumed you were talking about people who bought shares not day traders. Are you talking about day traders?
If I was looking for your type of profit why take on 22% spread?
New river reit
year low 50p
year high 244p
Present price 58.2p
Spread 57.4p to 58.2p
I would say that it is more likely to be 3x timer. Easier than a share with a 22% spread.
IF it was still paying the same dividend as its last one the dividend would be 38%
If in 2 years time it started to pay it's dividend again but only at half the original that would be a 19% dividend. And the share price would be considerably higher.


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## Notafettler (25 Apr 2020)

Another in my opinion interesting article 

https://www.moneyobserver.com/coronavirus-looking-business-winners-and-losers


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## Notafettler (26 Apr 2020)

This is all about investment trusts. It is 27 minutes long. As you all have all the time world!! It maybe of interest. I on the other hand haven't got all the time in the world...well I have but I want to kill some voles/mice which are destroying my vegetable garden, so I am going to sit with a spade and wait to see them creating there runs. Then chop them in pieces...hopefully!!
https://www.investorschronicle.co.u...nt-trusts-for-market-madness-and-safe-havens/


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## Eziemnaik (27 Apr 2020)

Friend of mine just gave me an advice how to win on the stock market every time, you just have to follow the instructions from the picture


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## steveindenmark (27 Apr 2020)

I worked for Barclays many years ago and played the stock market a bit.

My advice is that no matter how much you want to kid yourself that this is an investment. It is not. You must convince yourself that this is like opening a window and throwing a handful of banknotes out on a windy day. If some of them blow back in, then your a winner.

It can be exciting watching the graph go up day after day. But most of the time it will go up too slowly. Often it will go down and you will wonder how it can go down when you bought it at rock bottom. It is just like gambling and can become just as addictive. If you cannot afford to just throw that money in the bin. Then dont do it. 

But if you can afford it. It can be really good fun.


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## Notafettler (27 Apr 2020)

steveindenmark said:


> I worked for Barclays many years ago and played the stock market a bit.
> 
> My advice is that no matter how much you want to kid yourself that this is an investment. It is not. You must convince yourself that this is like opening a window and throwing a handful of banknotes out on a windy day. If some of them blow back in, then your a winner.
> 
> ...


You are saying that nobody makes money on the stockmarket.
You are saying that everyone's pension is worth less than they put in.


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## Notafettler (27 Apr 2020)

Another interesting article this is about post coronavirus. 
The important part (in my opinion) is the move to shorter supply chains and a move to bring production home. 
One thing I made a note of a few years back was that Adidas had moved a factory back to Germany. The factory was highly automated. Staffing cost very low capital cost of automation very high. Production though was a just in time, no warehouses stacked with huge amounts of trainers. Some of which will have to be reduced significantly as they will never take off. Nike is even further ahead at automation and bringing prodction back home. The cost of this sort of automaton is falling rapidly. Ocado has for years said it was going to sell its technology. It Appeared it was just talk until last year when they got 3 orders for there technology. Share price doubled. 

https://www.moneyobserver.com/five-...l&utm_campaign=MOports260420 (1)&utm_content=


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## steveindenmark (27 Apr 2020)

Notafettler said:


> You are saying that nobody makes money on the stockmarket.
> You are saying that everyone's pension is worth less than they put in.



I must have missed the bit where I said nobody makes money on the stock market. Maybe I missed it because I have personally made quite a bit on the stock market.

What I did say is that it is a gamble and that you can lose it and if you are looking at it as an investment, you need to be OK losing it. 

If you are using a broker and the op didnt suggest that, you have more chance of success , as that is his profession.


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## Notafettler (27 Apr 2020)

steveindenmark said:


> You must convince yourself that this is like opening a window and throwing a handful of banknotes out on a windy day.deprivation
> If some of them blow back in, then your a winner.
> If you cannot afford to just throw that money in the bin.


That's not definition of winner. Not losing all your money is not the definition of being a winner
If you cannot afford to just throw that money in the bin.



steveindenmark said:


> But if you can afford it. It can be really good fun


It's supposed to be an investment not a game something to be taken seriously.
Investing in the stock market is not like gambling. You never mentioned anything about using a broker. Did use one? Feel free to tell me what a broker is.
Do you mean financial adviser?
Stockbroker never gives advice. You go to a financial adviser for financial advice.
And it's not free.


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## steveindenmark (27 Apr 2020)

Notafettler said:


> That's not definition of winner. Not losing all your money is not the definition of being a winner
> If you cannot afford to just throw that money in the bin.
> 
> 
> ...


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## Notafettler (27 Apr 2020)

steveindenmark said:


> a broker who buys and sells securities on a stock exchange on behalf of clients


Yes but they don't give advice. So how will using them (impossible to buy shares with out them) help you do better as they don't give advice???


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## nickyboy (1 May 2020)

Notafettler said:


> Yes but they don't give advice. So how will using them (impossible to buy shares with out them) help you do better as they don't give advice???


There are three main sorts of broking arrangements:

1) Execution only (where they don't give advice, they just do the trade you want. That's what you're talking about)
2) Advisory (where they will give opinion on your proposed trades and will also contact you with investment proposals)
3) Discretionary (where you give them your money and they make the investment decisions)

A single brokerage can offer more than one. For example the one I use for execution only does all three


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## Once a Wheeler (5 May 2020)

Here's a great place to start:
https://www.youinvest.co.uk/sites/default/files/guide/file/AJBell_First-time_Investor_Guide.pdf
Work at it, face up to the fact that you will suffer losses, keep going, reap the long-term benefits. Sounds a bit like cycling.


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## shirokazan (19 May 2020)

Notafettler said:


> As a further aside the return on bonds don't rise with inflation.


Err, index-linked gilts?
https://moneyterms.co.uk/gilts/index-linked/


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## Notafettler (19 May 2020)

shirokazan said:


> Err, index-linked gilts?
> https://moneyterms.co.uk/gilts/index-linked/




I was talking about bonds not gilts although they work the same gilts are backed by the government bonds are not.
Feel free to point out how these are good value

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/corporate-bonds-gilts/bond-prices/uk-index-linked-gilts

Note the starting yields and the prices. The redemption price is £100.

Treasury 0.125% 2068
GBP | GB00BDX8CX86 | BDX8CX80.12522 March 2068287.150
Return in 2068 is £100. To buy now £287.150


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## shirokazan (20 May 2020)

Gilts are bonds. Bonds can either be issued by governments (UK gilts, US Treasuries) or companies (corporate bonds). Your text didn't distinguish.


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## Brads (20 May 2020)

Far easier putting money into a SIPP with someone like Intelligent Money.

You can move investments about to expand or reduce exposure to equities, but you are doing it in a safer SIPP wrapper which also attracts tax relief on the money you fire into it.

How it was best put to me is , "It's better to have time in the market rather than trying to time the market"


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## Profpointy (20 May 2020)

Notafettler said:


> A neighbour is florist the dutch have literally bined all there tulips. The "recovery " is a long way off!!



Sounds like there'll be a shortage of tulips so the price is bound to go up


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## Notafettler (20 May 2020)

Brads said:


> Far easier putting money into a SIPP with someone like Intelligent Money.
> 
> You can move investments about to expand or reduce exposure to equities, but you are doing it in a safer SIPP wrapper which also attracts tax relief on the money you fire into it.
> 
> How it was best put to me is , "It's better to have time in the market rather than trying to time the market"


Good point....BUT..I just bought in as the market fell, at the bottom and as the market rose again. Example I bought Smithson investment Trust It was on a ridiculous 19% discount to NAV(roughly). It is never been on a discount before.
I bought perpetual income and growth on 26% discount (it was on an average of 16% discount for last 12 months). And 8% dividend.
Dividend bias investment trusts have a dividend reserve. They will all have enough to increase there dividend for at least one year. Emphasis on at least.

I am up 55% on Smithson (no dividend payments)
I am up 16% on perpetual with an 8% dividend
A discount means I am buying below its actual worth. In the case of perpetual I paid 74p for every £1 worth of assets (the underlying shares they own).
The latter is not possible with funds including etfs.
I bought 4 other investment trusts roughly I am up 12% with an average dividend of 7%. Just what I need for retirement.
Roughly you will pay .4% year on all investment in your ISA. On a fund and share account there are no ongoing fees.

You have a £12,500 income tax allowance
A starter £5,000 savings tax allowance which includes the income from bonds, investment trusts and funds.
A £2,000 dividend tax allowance.
A Ordinary savings tax allowance of £1,000 (bank savings)
Capital gains tax allowance of £12,300.
I have an income (prior to any dividends) of £120.
Even when I get my state pension, (3 years) there is virtually no chance of me paying tax.
ISA equals shite....for me.


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## Notafettler (20 May 2020)

Profpointy said:


> Sounds like there'll be a shortage of tulips so the price is bound to go up


They cut the tulip flowers not the bulbs. At the end of covid19 there will be more tulips not less. The bulbs "replicate " not the right word.


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## Notafettler (20 May 2020)

Brads said:


> You can move investments about to expand or reduce exposure to equities,


By the way your first statement is contradicted by your second statement:-



Brads said:


> "It's better to have time in the market rather than trying to time the market"



Your first statement involves trying to time the markets.


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## Notafettler (20 May 2020)

PS I might have timed the market correctly or I might not. My crystal ball is always fogged up unlike some market pundits. 
BUT I know when the market is cheap.....relative to the past.


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## Notafettler (20 May 2020)

shirokazan said:


> Gilts are bonds. Bonds can either be issued by governments (UK gilts, US Treasuries) or companies (corporate bonds). Your text didn't distinguish.


I shouldn't need to. £268 to buy with a redemption price of £100 in 2068.
Starting dividend 0.125%.
Do you really think you will beat inflation? You will loose £168 in 48 years time. Plus you have started on dire interest rate. You will in fact continue getting .125 % interest for the whole of that 48 years as inflation rises your income will remain the same (your buying power)
All of the latter assume you buy the bonds at the issue price of £100 assuming that is what they sold at, it doesn't have to have been, as the £100 is the redemption price. 
Of course if the latter is true you could sell for capital gain of £168....sweet !!!!
I have lost interest now.
There are more things to consider. I can't be arsed explaining them!


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## Profpointy (20 May 2020)

Notafettler said:


> They cut the tulip flowers not the bulbs. At the end of covid19 there will be more tulips not less. The bulbs "replicate " not the right word.



Oh, in that case, I'll go for that South Seas investment then instead...


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## Notafettler (20 May 2020)

Now your talking!!


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## Notafettler (20 May 2020)

SIPP and ISA Hargreaves Lansdowne 0.45% a year on all investments (no charge for cash). Fund and share account nil ongoing charges. 
Many many moons ago you used to be able to "bed and breakfast" shares.
To create an capital gain below the allowance you could sell your shares and the market maker would sell them you back the next day at the same price for fee. Not allowed anymore but you can bed an ISA shares. No idea of the fees but if I was lucky enough to need to, I would.


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## Brads (20 May 2020)

Notafettler said:


> By the way your first statement is contradicted by your second statement:-
> 
> 
> 
> Your first statement involves trying to time the markets.




No it doesn't. What I meant , and said , was that you can change portfolios to various equity percentages. You can change you're risk factor. You are not trading.


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## Notafettler (20 May 2020)

Brads said:


> Far easier putting money into a SIPP with someone like Intelligent Money.
> 
> You can move investments about to expand or reduce exposure to equities, but you are doing it in a safer SIPP wrapper which also attracts tax relief on the money you fire into it.
> 
> How it was best put to me is , "It's better to have time in the market rather than trying to time the market"





Brads said:


> No it doesn't. What I meant , and said , was that you can change portfolios to various equity percentages. You can change you're risk factor. You are not trading.


I said nothing about trading. You are changing your portfolio, that's timing the market. Why else would you change it if your not trying to time the markets. 
What are you changing it to? Maybe a better way of putting it is what other assets are there to put your money in when you lower your equity percentage?
I don't understand what is "safer" about a SIPP wrapper? Great for tax relief...even if you don't pay tax!!
I have no knowledge of intelligent money.


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## Brads (21 May 2020)

Timing the market is trading.
Changing a portfolio is changing your risk strategy, not trading, or indeed timing the markets.

Portfolios are made up of equity plus gilts, bonds, gold cash etc etc. You can choose your mix.

As for the rest, google it.


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## Notafettler (21 May 2020)

Brads said:


> Timing the market is trading.
> Changing a portfolio is changing your risk strategy, not trading, or indeed timing the markets.
> 
> Portfolios are made up of equity plus gilts, bonds, gold cash etc etc. You can choose your mix.
> ...


Why would you change your risk strategy? Think the equity markets going to go down?
Move more into gold because of the latter?


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## Brads (21 May 2020)

What are you talking about ?

I would suggest you get some professional advise before doing anything with money because you don't really seem to have a grasp of investing.


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## Moodyman (22 May 2020)

Notafettler said:


> Why would you change your risk strategy? Think the equity markets going to go down?
> Move more into gold because of the latter?



There are all sorts of reasons to change one's portfolio split e.g. 'lifestyling' because one may wish to reduce exposure to equities and increase in bonds as one nears the retirement age.

Whilst bonds have a lower return long term, they are safer option and so, someone who wishes to protect their equity gains may move some of the holding to this 'defensive' option.


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## Notafettler (22 May 2020)

Brads said:


> What are you talking about ?
> 
> I would suggest you get some professional advise before doing anything with money because you don't really seem to have a grasp of investing.


You need to read my posts. I have more grasp on investing than you will ever have.


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## Notafettler (22 May 2020)

Moodyman said:


> There are all sorts of reasons to change one's portfolio split e.g. 'lifestyling' because one may wish to reduce exposure to equities and increase in bonds as one nears the retirement age.
> 
> Whilst bonds have a lower return long term, they are safer option and so, someone who wishes to protect their equity gains may move some of the holding to this 'defensive' option.


My personal choice would be dividend bias investment trusts. Ones with a good dividend reserve to get them through hard times. Funds etfs have to give all their income to investors. Possibly some bonds.....in a different era. Not now as you will get bugger all in terms of interest. AND we are in what Warren buffet would call a "unknown unknown " as opposed to a "known unknown". Lots of bonds have fallen dramatically in price/value. Due to expected default. Of course this is because I have the benefit of hindsight!!!
And luck!!


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## Brads (22 May 2020)

Notafettler said:


> You need to read my posts. I have more grasp on investing than you will ever have.


Aye very good, sure you have, given you know less than nothing about me. How very bigheeded.

Maybe you need advise on how to put things across then.


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## Notafettler (1 Jun 2020)

Roger Longbottom said:


> I through 3k at Lloyds today, best part of 9k shares, couldn't leave them there at the price, they can keep all the rest of theirs I have company until times get better.
> 
> Chairman has said "He will honour missed dividends", yeah right!




Don't understand you. You bought £3000 worth of shares giving you a total of £9000?
"Keep all the rest of theirs" ? Don't understand?
The banks are being expected to act as an arm of the government. If they lent money or gave people and businesses payment holidays in the way they are and to the extent that they are, they would be held to account by both the government and the PRA.
They are almost certainly making loses, where does chairman expect to find the money to pay the dividend?
Banks make profits based on the margin between what they borrow at and what they lend at. The lower interest rates are the harder it is for them to make a good return. With interest rates the way they are they are buggered!!


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## vickster (2 Jun 2020)

Notafettler said:


> Don't understand you. You bought £3000 worth of shares giving you a total of £9000?
> "Keep all the rest of theirs" ? Don't understand?
> The banks are being expected to act as an arm of the government. If they lent money or gave people and businesses payment holidays in the way they are and to the extent that they are, they would be held to account by both the government and the PRA.
> They are almost certainly making loses, where does chairman expect to find the money to pay the dividend?
> Banks make profits based on the margin between what they borrow at and what they lend at. The lower interest rates are the harder it is for them to make a good return. With interest rates the way they are they are buggered!!


I read it as he got 9000 shares for £3k (33p a share?)

(I assume through = threw?) The rest indeed makes no sense


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## Notafettler (2 Jun 2020)

Got it. I should have checked the share price. 
It's more than halved but there are plenty of other companies whose share price have fallen further...a lot further. Not for me though, not when the government can treat them like they belong to the government......we are not in China!!


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## Notafettler (2 Jun 2020)

Interesting 
"(Sharecast News) - UK banks have warned that up to half the £18.5bn "bounce back" loans they make to small businesses during the Covid-19 crisis are unlikely to be repaid, according to a report.
As the prospect of a quick recovery from the economic lockdown fades, three senior bankers told the Financial Times that between 40% and 50% of the 608,000 borrowers under the government loan programme could default on the loans.

The loans of up to £50,000 are 100% backed by the government, leaving the banks with no credit risk. But lenders are worried about a logistically impossible "PR disaster" of pursuing hundreds of thousands of smaller enterprises for the money"
Only part of the report from
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/l/lloyds-banking-group-plc-ordinary-10p/share-news
Click on news


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## nickyboy (5 Jun 2020)

The only advice I ever give on shares is if someone is on the internet saying how clever they are and how stupid everyone else is, how they're right and everyone else is wrong, it's generally best to ignore their "advice"


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## Eziemnaik (5 Jun 2020)

Nasdaq just hit all time high 
Recession? It is a word for small business


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## Notafettler (6 Jun 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Nasdaq just hit all time high
> Recession? It is a word for small business


A quick check says Nasdaq is the stock exchange with the majority of tech companies. Which don't appear to have done badly out of the crash.


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## Notafettler (6 Jun 2020)

nickyboy said:


> The only advice I ever give on shares is if someone is on the internet saying how clever they are and how stupid everyone else is, how they're right and everyone else is wrong, it's generally best to ignore their "advice"


Although I don't give advice, I am happy to state facts. The average investment Trust trades below its net asset value (its intrinsic value). Other than etfs, the average Investment Trust have lower fees than funds. Most importantly in a crash the share price fall further than the net asset values sometimes much much further. Smithson investment Trust, which has not been around long but has always traded at premium ie at share price greater than it's actually value. Over the last year (june 6th 2019 to today) it is up 26.5%. Worthy I think of 2.3% premium. It fell during the crash to 19% discount. For every 81p you got a 100p of assets. Obviously its assets fell as well.
Lowest end of day trade 870p over the last year
Highest 1494p. Both prices are recent.
Present price buy 1492p sell 1488p.
You wouldn't need to buy at the bottom to be quids in.
That's not advice that's facts!!


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## Notafettler (6 Jun 2020)

nickyboy said:


> The only advice I ever give on shares is if someone is on the internet saying how clever they are and how stupid everyone else is, how they're right and everyone else is wrong, it's generally best to ignore their "advice"


Another examples of that is,
the stockmarket is going to crash
the stockmarket is going to crash
the stockmarket is going to crash
the stockmarket is going to crash
the stockmarket is going to crash etc etc etc
The stockmarket crashes...
Told you so.....yeah for the last 3 years, anyone who ignored them would be better off.
The pundits abound and no doubt they are saying I told you so now. They will of course have based there advice on a completely different scenario!


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## Eziemnaik (6 Jun 2020)

Notafettler said:


> A quick check says Nasdaq is the stock exchange with the majority of tech companies. Which don't appear to have done badly out of the crash.


Which just confirms what I wrote.


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## Notafettler (18 Jun 2020)

The views of the manager of Murray international investment Trust. Renowned for his negative views on.....everything!!

*An update from our investment manager, Bruce Stout - 8 June 2020*

"With Government enforced lockdowns throughout the world beginning to ease, the focus of attention has recently changed towards considering the prospects for economic recovery. The consensus view, perhaps formed by the experience post Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, believes the deeper the recession the steeper the recovery. Such simplicity may prove over optimistic under current circumstances. Objective economic analysis suggests it's the _cause_ of recession that dictates the pace of recovery: restoring normality after severe property collapses, boom/bust phases of over-investment or credit related solvency crises can often take years. Having voluntarily shut down a substantial portion of economic society, there is no previous road map as to what happens next. The range of possible economic, and indeed clinical, outcomes remain many and varied, hence great caution continues to be warranted. 

Whilst the world waits eagerly and watches for signs of economic recovery, scant attention seems to be directed towards how the spiralling economic costs of current Covid-constrained conditions will ultimately be addressed. For the already chronically indebted Developed world the additional burden represents yet another significant headwind to negotiate. Yet for the fiscally prudent and savings rich Nations within Asia and Emerging Markets the trajectory of recovery in growth, profitability and prosperity is unlikely to be unduly compromised by the legacy of this unprecedented pandemic - it is towards such investment opportunities that the Trust continues to emphasise."

He's a right miserable get! Very conservative views on the world economies. 
In the dividend bias investment Trust sector his investment trust is one of the few (if any) that shows a positive return (share price) over 5 years.....just!


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## Notafettler (18 Jun 2020)

You tube 

View: https://youtu.be/xwNrKBVDqWc

A Dower jock if there ever was one!!


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## Notafettler (29 Jun 2020)

Spiderweb said:


> Well I bought Lloyd’s shares. They were priced low before the Covid crash then they almost halved. Dividend yield is good, way better than current interest rates so I thought it would be a good time to buy. I’m expecting a big boost after the Covid recession but I don’t plan to sell, I fancy them long term.
> Shares values have always recovered well after any crash.





Roger Longbottom said:


> I through 3k at Lloyds today, best part of 9k shares, couldn't leave them there at the price, they can keep all the rest of theirs I have company until times get better.
> 
> Chairman has said "He will honour missed dividends", yeah right!


Damn can't remember where I got this from. A pundit obviously but of interest to those who bought Lloyds:-
"The first is *Lloyds* (LSE: LLOY). The share price has fallen nearly 50% over the last six months alone. The shares are now lower than they were five years ago. But the mandated, or strongly encouraged, suspension of bank dividends during the crisis could help Lloyds further strengthen its balance sheet. It already has a tight control on costs and has further scope for digitisation. 

The dividend suspension could also help it to partially offset the expected uptick in bad loans that will result from customers losing jobs and generally being less financially secure.

Overall, I think the shares, on a P/E of nine, look too cheap to ignore right now. Yes, interest rates are very low and it’s a difficult time for banks. But I expect Lloyds, with its low costs and relatively simple business model, to come back stronger post-Covid-19."


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## Notafettler (30 Jun 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Which just confirms what I wrote.


Soooooo I was agreeing with you. No need to thank me.


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## Moodyman (30 Jun 2020)

Notafettler said:


> Damn can't remember where I got this from. A pundit obviously but of interest to those who bought Lloyds:-
> "The first is *Lloyds* (LSE: LLOY). The share price has fallen nearly 50% over the last six months alone. The shares are now lower than they were five years ago. But the mandated, or strongly encouraged, suspension of bank dividends during the crisis could help Lloyds further strengthen its balance sheet. It already has a tight control on costs and has further scope for digitisation.
> 
> The dividend suspension could also help it to partially offset the expected uptick in bad loans that will result from customers losing jobs and generally being less financially secure.
> ...



Sounds like a sales pitch disguised as punditry.


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## nickyboy (1 Jul 2020)

Moodyman said:


> Sounds like a sales pitch disguised as punditry.


Standard tactics...buy and then ramp the hell out of a share to get others to buy and push the price up. Sell. Or, alternatively, sell and then deramp like hell to get others to sell and then rebuy.
Of course this is impossible in a stock like Lloyds, but in the small/mid cap range where I occasionally buy, it happens all the time
Share investment forums are shark infested waters


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## sleuthey (25 Sep 2020)

sleuthey said:


> Me personally, Royal Mail


@Spiderweb Did you take my advice back in March?


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## Spiderweb (25 Sep 2020)

sleuthey said:


> @Spiderweb Did you take my advice back in March?
> View attachment 549076


I wish I had!
My 10,000 Lloyd’s shares are down 10p each😲


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## Notafettler (25 Sep 2020)

@sleuthey was it advice? 
Good call but if it was advice and it had gone the other way would you be posting to apologise?
Again good pick.


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## sleuthey (25 Sep 2020)

Notafettler said:


> @sleuthey was it advice?
> Good call but if it was advice and it had gone the other way would you be posting to apologise?
> Again good pick.


No and yes


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## sleuthey (25 Sep 2020)

Spiderweb said:


> I wish I had!
> My 10,000 Lloyd’s shares are down 10p each😲


I owned shares in RM in March, my only shares in fact, and whilst they have Now doubled in value, I bought them a year before When they were the same price as they are now. So I’m back to where I started!


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## Notafettler (25 Sep 2020)

sleuthey said:


> @Spiderweb Did you take my advice back in March?
> View attachment 549076





sleuthey said:


> No and yes


I think you said it was advise? 


sleuthey said:


> I owned shares in RM in March, my only shares in fact, and whilst they have Now doubled in value, I bought them a year before When they were the same price as they are now. So I’m back to where I started!



Still better than being at a loss, plus you have had the divi better than the best interest you would have had if you had put the money in savings account.


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## sleuthey (26 Sep 2020)

Notafettler said:


> I think you said it was advise?


Surprised you asked if you think you already know the answer. 

The comment provided by myself on 26 Mar was “Me personally, Royal Mail”. Entirely up to the reader whether they interpret it as advice or not. 

I’ll have to check my Hargreaves Lansdown account and see what I got in the way of divs, I had forgotten about that side of it.


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## Notafettler (26 Sep 2020)

sleuthey said:


> Surprised you asked if you think you already know the answer.
> 
> The comment provided by myself on 26 Mar was “Me personally, Royal Mail”. Entirely up to the reader whether they interpret it as advice or not.
> 
> I’ll have to check my Hargreaves Lansdown account and see what I got in the way of divs, I had forgotten about that side of it.


I was going by this post which clearly uses the word advice "@Spiderweb Did you take my advice back in March?" From the 25th of September.


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## Notafettler (26 Sep 2020)

Notafettler said:


> A better example
> Perpetual income and growth
> Opening price
> *184.60p*
> ...


I bought these on a 26% discount (discount are always out of date by at least one day). That is 74p for every 100p worth of assets (underlying shares owned by the investment Trust). It traded at an average of 16% discount for the previous year. A terrible investment trust over 5 years excellent for the previous 15 years. The manager and management company had been sacked from the Edinburgh investment Trust. The assumption by me and to certain degree the market was he would get the sack from perpetual. He did in April and the shares jumped 6% and drifted back down. The directors then do whats called a "beauty parade" for a new manager, which should take 6 months. A good choice was a merger with Edinburgh. Which would result in lower cost both management and ongoing. A big surprise after four months they decided on a merger with Murray income. For perpetual a very big reduction in costs smaller for Murray. But the merger terms were staggeringly good for perpetual. 
1 perpetual gets shares in Murray at NAV (the underlying asset values of perpetual not there share price)
2 the dividend reserve of perpetual is paid to them before the merger. (basically doubling my dividend for the year)
3 Perpetual shares up Murray income shares down...which means we (perpetual gets more shares for our money) 
I doubled up immediately. The market has drifted down so on average I am only 5% up but still am on very tasty dividend. 
Murray pays a lower dividend but its share price growth is considerably higher. Not difficult when perpetual is down about 40% over 5 years. 
Both perpetual shareholders and Murray income shareholders have to agree? I maybe being very hopeful that Murray shareholders will vote for the merger.
The point of course is there is always a certain amount of luck involved.


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## Notafettler (28 Sep 2020)

NOT ADVISE
Legal and general bought some about 3 years ago. At a big loss now but on a 6.8% dividend so don't care. Also bought some during crash. Still in profit on them and 10.5% dividend. Bought no where near the bottom of the market.

Profits have fallen due to coronavirus. Mainly paper loses on bonds in the annuities pool. They only become real losses if they sell them or they default. They have no intentions of selling as they buy them for the interest.

Until today there has been a steady decline in the share price for no apparent reasons. As in no bad news (other than decline in profits which was expected). A bit of a jump today as some US fund company has been buying and announced via RNS that they own sufficient to have to announce it to the market (near 5%).
I seen this once before a couple of years back the same thing a steady decline in share price for no apparent reason and then a steady (albeit quicker) reversal finishing with a new high. I call this momentum selling as opposed to the highly fashionable momentum buying. 
I have gone from a 40% share price increase on the second purchase to 12% today and some of that was due to 5% increase today. Just checked dividend if bought today is 9.5%.
Last dividend announcement was to keep it the same as last year. A surprise to the market as it was expected to increase it by the normal 7%.

Note despite the pressure by PRI that insurance companies should consider wherever to pay dividends legal and general have said they will continue pay.

They have furloughed no member of staff and everyone was kept on full pay.

I am looking at this in 2 ways, should I get in now or should I wait to see if there's a no deal brexit. Which inevitably will see a market decline even for those companies who will not be affected or have a Minimum effect.
Problem is I have rather a lot of L&G shares as is.

Anyway some maybe looking for a "lower risk" dividend share. Buy at your own risk this is not advice. If you buy and loose money, tough.

Hargreaves Lansdown research
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-...eral-group-plc-ord-2.5p-shares/share-research


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## Notafettler (8 Oct 2020)

As i thought might happen (emphasis on might!). The price is creeping up 180p to 201. Dividend bought today at 201p is 8.72%.
But Brexit without an agreement:- down with an agreement;- up.
In the case of an agreement a big jump.
In the case of no agreement a big fall.
Percentage wise which will be the bigger?
I would say.......no idea!!


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## Notafettler (29 Oct 2020)

https://www.artemisfunds.com/en/gbr...s/2020/oct/artemis-alpha-trust-plc-agm-update

Hopefully the link works.
An interesting view on the long term view on shares.... well actually not all that long term. Lloyds and banks are in there. Watch video


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## Globalti (31 Oct 2020)

Givaudan Switzerland


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## Notafettler (31 Oct 2020)

Globalti said:


> Givaudan Switzerland


What about it? Please feel free to give your views. AKA expand your views. Because at this point you have added nothing to the thread.


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## Globalti (1 Nov 2020)

Shares are gaining value and its a fantastic company


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## Notafettler (1 Nov 2020)

I think come Monday we may see a significant fall in the market!!
I am going to go with greater than 5%.


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## Notafettler (2 Nov 2020)

Notafettler said:


> I think come Monday we may see a significant fall in the market!!
> I am going to go with greater than 5%.


Well wrong, minimal fall. I should watch the news more. It must have been expected ie in the price.


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## Eziemnaik (2 Nov 2020)

Notafettler said:


> I think come Monday we may see a significant fall in the market!!
> I am going to go with greater than 5%.








Bullish lockdowns


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## Notafettler (9 Nov 2020)

Staggering share price rises today FTSE 100 up 4.6% FTSE 250 up 5.2%.
My biggest investment by a long way is legal and General up 14%. Why you may ask? I got no idea!


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## Eziemnaik (9 Nov 2020)

Bullish vaccines


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## Notafettler (9 Nov 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Bullish vaccines


What legal and general?
Its supposed to be the US presidential election which resulted in


Notafettler said:


> share price rises today FTSE 100 up 4.6% FTSE 250 up 5.2%


Legal and general doesn't seem to follow the market as much as it should. Either way I am not complaining!


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## Eziemnaik (9 Nov 2020)

Everything is bullish with vaccines
Maybe apart from Zoom


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## Notafettler (9 Nov 2020)

Eziemnaik said:


> Everything is bullish with vaccines
> Maybe apart from Zoom


*"Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine saw a 90 per cent success rate in clinical trials"

just spotted that they could put that on the market now. BUT not everyone will get the shot, so will we need to prove we have had the shot to go to the pub etc?
Tattoo on forehead?!

zoom down 14% a bit harsh its not like they go stop using it!*


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## Notafettler (9 Nov 2020)

Easyjet jumped 30 per cent to 692.4p following the news, and Ryanair’s stock rose 16.16
And
Delivery hero fell 6 per cent and Just Eat down 8.9 per cent

I own shares in Artemis alpha investment trust all 4 are in there top 10 investments.


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## Notafettler (16 Nov 2020)

Spiderweb said:


> I wish I had!
> My 10,000 Lloyd’s shares are down 10p each😲


I hope you never sold?
Are you getting close to your buying price?


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## Spiderweb (16 Nov 2020)

Notafettler said:


> I hope you never sold?
> Are you getting close to your buying price?


Yes, I bought at 35p so in profit a little👍


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## Notafettler (16 Nov 2020)

Good.
total dividend for 2018 was 3.21p.
That was the last full year dividend. Which would give you a 9.17% dividend. No idea when they will start there dividend again or what it will be. Still worth noting.


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