# Bike sales in decline



## Smokin Joe (21 Oct 2017)

Bikebiz are predicting that cycle sales could be down by one million this year in comparison to 2016 figures.

http://www.bikebiz.com/news/read/uk...o-sell-1-million-fewer-bikes-this-year/022040

There have been a few threads here lately about cycle shops closing. The global picture is not much better either.


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## Banjo (21 Oct 2017)

Could be partly due to the millions of barely used bikes available secondhand from people who didnt stick with it.

It would be interesting to find out what makes someone buy an expensive bike then quickly stop riding it.

I would hazard a guess that dangerous car driving would be high on the list but think the wave of anti cyclist trash in the gutter media could be responsible for quite a few .

Of course the good old British weather can be discouraging .


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## Cycleops (21 Oct 2017)

That’s surprising. I know that businesses that don’t move with times will fail but bigger businesses who have embraced the selling revolution can also have troubles. If Evans are making a 36% gross margin that’s pretty good so if they’ve slipped into the red operating costs and overheads may be to blame.
I can understand why Brompton are doing well as they are not a ‘bicycle’ company.
Maybe as suggested it’s a periodic trough.


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## Drago (21 Oct 2017)

The anti cycling rhetoric has reached a crescendo this year, which won't have helped.


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## Smokin Joe (21 Oct 2017)

Banjo said:


> It would be interesting to find out what makes someone buy an expensive bike then quickly stop riding it.


Fashion.

Cycling's popularity rose very quickly in a short space of time. British riders were winning races at the very top level, every C list luvvie worth his or her salt just had to be seen on a bike anywhere they could find a TV camera. You cannot rise that far or that quickly without a sharp fall coming sooner or later. The acid test will be how cycling levels compare to those of ten years ago once the five minute wonders have gone onto something else.


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## Dirk (21 Oct 2017)

Banjo said:


> Could be partly due to the millions of barely used bikes available secondhand from people who didnt stick with it.


You could have something there.


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## Pale Rider (21 Oct 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> Fashion.
> 
> Cycling's popularity rose very quickly in a short space of time. British riders were winning races at the very top level, every C list luvvie worth his or her salt just had to be seen on a bike anywhere they could find a TV camera. You cannot rise that far or that quickly without a sharp fall coming sooner or later. The acid test will be how cycling levels compare to those of ten years ago once the five minute wonders have gone onto something else.



A couple of bike shop owners I've spoken to in York and Sunderland agree with you.

Brad and our world beating track cyclists caused a useful spike in sales for a couple of years.

Cycle to Work, for all its faults, continues to shift bikes, and those sales tend to be from bricks and mortar shops.

Ebike sales are growing, but nowhere near fast enough to make up for the decline in push bike sales.

The manager of the shop in Sunderland said very few of the cycling boom customers have stuck around, most of the shop's current sales are from people who have been using the shop on and off for many years.


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## 400bhp (21 Oct 2017)

With the way the sales of bikes works it’s always going to be this way. 

If the industry manages to either move the market to:

a) car model (cars mainly bought through work based schemes or on HPI), essentially renting

b)white goods, essentially making machines with a finite life

The industry has some of both and tries hard to make bikes pseudo obsolete, but the very notion of bike ownership (ecological, freedom) makes it very hard to treat bikes like throwaway objects. 

Not that I want it to go that way.


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## Johnno260 (21 Oct 2017)

I bought mine around a year ago, and it was a battle getting the wife to accept the want/need to ditch the hybrid for a drop bar. 

I got a great deal on a 2016 spec bike when the shop wanted room for the 2017 models. 

It will be a while before I can justify a replacement, and I don’t want a replacement as I love the bike.


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## Tangoup51 (21 Oct 2017)

I think electric bikes will take the reign. - Especially when people start making more durable DIY kits that offer more power on tap than any legally sold electric bike in the UK, which can convert most types of bicycles into something that isn't a bicycle anymore.

Can't say I wouldn't be excited for such a change, imagine a bicycle with an electric ability to push it beyond 40 MPH - All without the goverment restrictions that a car and motorcycles have. - That would be the ultimate tool of freedom and for alot of us, that's all we really want.


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## swee'pea99 (21 Oct 2017)

Drago said:


> The anti cycling rhetoric has reached a crescendo this year, which won't have helped.


Indeed. The callous stupidity of one 18 year old is days of headline 'news'. This (from a link on another thread):







isn't.


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## screenman (21 Oct 2017)

Cyclist not making new cyclist welcome, you only have to look as far as this forum to see people moaning about newbie cyclist at times.

As for going on about so called 5 minute wonders, that one really gets me, if you have never tried something and stopped because it did not do what you wanted it too then you are living a sad life in my humble.


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## Andrew_P (21 Oct 2017)

Cycling is the Squash of the 80's.


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## Yellow Saddle (21 Oct 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> Fashion.
> 
> Cycling's popularity rose very quickly in a short space of time. British riders were winning races at the very top level, every C list luvvie worth his or her salt just had to be seen on a bike anywhere they could find a TV camera. You cannot rise that far or that quickly without a sharp fall coming sooner or later. The acid test will be how cycling levels compare to those of ten years ago once the five minute wonders have gone onto something else.



Exactly. And, it is no different to zillions of fancy golf clubs and scuba tanks and running shoes lying around unused, all inspired by Tiger, Jacques, Mo and whoever happens to be hero of the day. Tomorrow fashion is still a niche sport and that's why I don't know what it will be.


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## Smokin Joe (21 Oct 2017)

screenman said:


> Cyclist not making new cyclist welcome, you only have to look as far as this forum to see people moaning about newbie cyclist at times.
> 
> As for going on about so called 5 minute wonders, that one really gets me, if you have never tried something and stopped because it did not do what you wanted it too then you are living a sad life in my humble.


I've tried lots of things, but I've dipped my toe in at the bottom to see if I like it first.


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## screenman (21 Oct 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> I've tried lots of things, but I've dipped my toe in at the bottom to see if I like it first.



Through choice I take it. If you deceide to have a go at cycling I would have though some BSO's would put you off straight away.

Also of course there is a persons value of money, one persons fiver may be another five grand. I never knock anyone for trying something new.

As an after thought, most of the guys I know of who have taking up cycling in the last five years do a lot more of it than many I know who have done it for years.


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## Donger (21 Oct 2017)

Well, I've just done my bit for the industry and put a deposit down on a new one.


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## Banjo (21 Oct 2017)

Donger said:


> Well, I've just done my bit for the industry and put a deposit down on a new one.



Come on Donger don't leave us in suspense ,what have you ordered?


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## biggs682 (21 Oct 2017)

Sales may be slow but it's still a popular activity. 

Trouble is a lot of people buy a bike use it whilst it's dry and still then soon as winter/wet days arrive the bike stays in the shed or garage . 

I have noticed lot's of people who bought bikes on cycle to work schemes claiming they have saved loads of money by buying that way but still don't use them. 

I do my bit to keep the industry going but mine were all built about 30 years ago .


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## delb0y (21 Oct 2017)

I still consider my Tricross my "new" bike. I bought it in 2009. I shall no doubt by another one sometime, but once you have a bike, even if you're really keen, you have a bike. I know some folks buy several. But once you have several, again, you have them. Bound to come a time when sales slow down. Even more so when the economy gets tough.


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## Donger (21 Oct 2017)

Banjo said:


> Come on Donger don't leave us in suspense ,what have you ordered?


The same again, Banjo! A new Ridgeback Panorama. Researched all sorts of makes, and found it was just about the only affordable bike that took what I already had and added the three improvements that I myself would have made to it. (Now has a 34 tooth cassette, disc brakes and better cable routing at the front that will allow me to fit a bigger bar bag).

Found it surprisingly difficult to find a sturdy steel touring bike with a decent negative gear ratio for getting my big ass up the mountains while having a big enough large chain ring to let me keep up on club rides. The new one has a 48/36/26 on the front and an 11/34 cassette.

I had a shortlist of 3, but the Thorn Club Tour and the Genesis Tour de Fer just lost out for varying reasons. I was surprised that some of the big brands of steel tourers don't seem to go up to a 60cm frame. In the end, well pleased with my choice, and looking forward to bringing it home next week.


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## ianrauk (21 Oct 2017)

screenman said:


> Cyclist not making new cyclist welcome, you only have to look as far as this forum to see people moaning about newbie cyclist at times.
> 
> As for going on about so called 5 minute wonders, that one really gets me, if you have never tried something and stopped because it did not do what you wanted it too then you are living a sad life in my humble.




I really don't get this. It's just snobbery of the highest order.
The more cyclists out there on bikes, what ever they ride, the better it is for all of us.


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## Drago (21 Oct 2017)

If someone made a BMW bike then people will buy them by the dozen, and gladly pay extra to have it with a chain fitted.


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## johnnyb47 (21 Oct 2017)

That's a shame to read. I think cycling though, is very fashionable for some, and as we know fashion comes and goes all the time ,leaving just the core base of regular cyclists to keep the business of the bike trade ticking over. I also think that marginally good quality bikes are expensive for what they are and your" leisure" cyclist who wants a half decent bike to ride occasionally isn't prepared to part with a few hundred pounds of the hard earned cash for the occasional bike ride round the park. On the other end of the spectrum a cheap BSO really do look cheap and nasty with there garish paint colours and tacky stickers in a vein attempts to hide its awful build quality. I would love a "all bells and whistles " bike but money is tight and ended up buying an immaculate 80,s steel framed Peugeot for 70 odd pounds. It's was best money I've ever spent on ,reaping the enjoyments and traveling experiences had over the last year and a half. 
There's a glut of good second hand high quality bikes out there on the market for a fraction of the price when new ,and it makes wise economic sense for the new cyclist to buy one of these if they want to see if cycling is for them. If not they can be simply sold on again for roughly the same price as apposed to selling a newly bought bike for much less..
I think the sales of high end bikes will always stay strong and steady though ,because of the passion of the serious cyclist wanting that ever newer and refined bike out there to push the boundaries of themselves even further.


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## Globalti (21 Oct 2017)

Could the terrible weather have anything to do with it?


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## jefmcg (21 Oct 2017)

Cars sales are dropping too. Let's not overreact.


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## johnnyb47 (21 Oct 2017)

The sport of cycling and tv advertising must also have a massive effect on bike sales. In the summer UK tv is adorned with the cycling such as the TDF as well as numerous other races and then we get all the adverts featuring Bradley Wiggins ect . As soon as Autumn comes it all just drops and all the little subliminal messages that have been put into the viewers minds that a bike would be just the thing for them soon disappears with the onset of winter. I don't understand why Uk tv stations stop airing cycle races through the winter months. Cycle events don't just happen in the northern hemisphere. Australia / South America ect are now coming into there summer time where cycling events start to kick off and it would be nice for us winter dwellers to be able to watch it over here and keep the enthusiasm for cycling though our darker months stronger.


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## srw (21 Oct 2017)

jefmcg said:


> Cars sales are dropping too. Let's not overreact.


And by about the same amount. 11% (bikes) vs 9% (cars). That million cited in the first post is an unsophisticated "extrapolation" (or, as we say in the trade, a guess).

You'd have thought all that healthy outdoor exercise would give cyclists a more optimistic outlook on life, wouldn't you?


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## Flyboy (21 Oct 2017)

Cyclesurgury on old Chester road not far from me are closing down , they are moving stock to their other branches.


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## tyred (21 Oct 2017)

Surely there is a sort of saturation point too. Bikes don't melt or go stale, it's not a loaf of bread. You don't need a new one every week. Any kind of half decent bike should last for years with a little TLC.


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## derrick (21 Oct 2017)

ianrauk said:


> I really don't get this. It's just snobbery of the highest order.
> The more cyclists out there on bikes, what ever they ride, the better it is for all of us.


There are as many nonce cyclist as there are car drivers.


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## ianrauk (21 Oct 2017)

derrick said:


> There are as many nonce cyclist as there are car drivers.




What is a nonce cyclist?


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## derrick (21 Oct 2017)

ianrauk said:


> What is a nonce cyclist?


Probably the wrong word, What about tosser?


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## pawl (21 Oct 2017)

To me Cycling is a simple pastime.I was talking to a family in the cafe last weekend about there ride.They were riding bog standar hybrids,the father said of course your a proper cyclist.I asked why do you say that, you have all the gear.I asked if he and his children had enjoyed the ride,yes he said .I responded by saying that in my oplnlon he and and his kids also are proper cyclists.

He went onto say he had studied all the current cycle magazines and the cost of what these sc called entry level bikes cost made his eyes water and that the cost of proper cycling clothing was prohibitive.

There is a lot of technical stuff he didn’t understand such as VO2max,interval training,power out put etc.I had to agree with him.I was at a loss to advise him were to look for information other than he and His family enjoy what they were already doing and if they become really keen to speak to the local LBS our search for websites such as this

I must ad mit my eyes also water at the price of technical clothing and the difficult of servicing my bike eg press fit bearings and the array of tools required.


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## fatjel (21 Oct 2017)

I feel kinda responsible for the decline.. 
Havn't bought a new bike since July


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## jefmcg (21 Oct 2017)

fatjel said:


> I feel kinda responsible for the decline..
> Havn't bought a new bike since July


Fingers crossed that @vickster will revert this decline.


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## Ming the Merciless (21 Oct 2017)

It says lowest in past 17 years , which means....

They have sold at least 42.5 million bikes in that time. Most of those bikes are likely to be perfectly servicable still. Plus there will be a healthy second hand market. It would be interesting to see a breakdown between kids and adult bikes. As kids bikes is the one area where the kid will need a new bike after a tear or two as they grow. Adult bikes just fit and you keep riding them (or not)


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## bozmandb9 (21 Oct 2017)

I think all this decline means is that bicycle manufacturers have failed to achieve built in obsolescence to an adequate degree. As has been pointed out, bikes don't evaporate 12 months after purchase, they accumulate. Personally, I tend to buy bikes which were previously bought new 5 years or so ago, I suspect many buyers do similar!


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## Slick (21 Oct 2017)

Banjo said:


> Could be partly due to the millions of barely used bikes available secondhand from people who didnt stick with it.
> 
> I'm not sure that's really the problem. There's 2 guys at my work who after watching me cycle continuously into work decided to get back in the saddle after a few years away. Both of them bought a second hand bike from gumtree and both still had the stickers on them from the shop. One man's "didn't stick with it" is another man's opportunity.


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## boydj (21 Oct 2017)

How much is overall spending on bikes, bike parts and accessories down?

I tend to agree that there has to be a saturation point where sales of adult bikes have to slow down, and it's hardly suprising that it's happened this year after the welter of bad publicity we've had.

I still see more adult cyclists about than I ever used to, so bikes are being used. There is still a problem with getting the cycling habit established, no matter how good the intentions of somebody buying a bike for the first time. Whether it's unrealistic expectations, bad experience with traffic or whatever, the fall-out rate is very high.


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## pjd57 (21 Oct 2017)

Ok , there was a big upsurge in cycling for a few years. Sales went up.
All those new bikes and cyclists are mainly still out there enjoying them.

It's not like a mobile phone that you ditch in favour of the latest model every 12 or 24 months.


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## Smokin Joe (21 Oct 2017)

pawl said:


> He went onto say he had studied all the current cycle magazines and the cost of what these sc called *entry level bikes* cost made his eyes water and that the cost of proper cycling clothing was prohibitive.


I absolutely hate that term. There is no such thing as an "Entry level bike", only in the minds of the immature teenage scribblers who pass for cycling magazine journalists these days. I've seen bikes that pro riders would have sold their souls for just two decades ago described in that way, bikes from reputable manufacturers with good quality components that would last for years. 

I'm willing to bet many people are put off because they are needlessly embarrassed about the perfectly good bike they have bought because it is all they can afford, particularly as there seems to be a nasty breed of cyclist about now who openly sneer at those they consider to have inferior equipment.


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## Johnno260 (21 Oct 2017)

screenman said:


> Cyclist not making new cyclist welcome, you only have to look as far as this forum to see people moaning about newbie cyclist at times.
> 
> As for going on about so called 5 minute wonders, that one really gets me, if you have never tried something and stopped because it did not do what you wanted it too then you are living a sad life in my humble.



I was never made to feel unwelcome here and when I first joined I asked so many questions.


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## FishFright (21 Oct 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> I absolutely hate that term. There is no such thing as an "Entry level bike", only in the minds of the immature teenage scribblers who pass for cycling magazine journalists these days. I've seen bikes that pro riders would have sold their souls for just two decades ago described in that way, bikes from reputable manufacturers with good quality components that would last for years.
> 
> I'm willing to bet many people are put off because they are needlessly embarrassed about the perfectly good bike they have bought because it is all they can afford, particularly as there seems to be a nasty breed of cyclist about now who openly sneer at those they consider to have inferior equipment.



'Entry level' is pretty simple to understand. and used for 1000's of different products without issue. I don't understand what causes you to have problems with it ?


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## Johnno260 (21 Oct 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> I absolutely hate that term. There is no such thing as an "Entry level bike", only in the minds of the immature teenage scribblers who pass for cycling magazine journalists these days. I've seen bikes that pro riders would have sold their souls for just two decades ago described in that way, bikes from reputable manufacturers with good quality components that would last for years.
> 
> I'm willing to bet many people are put off because they are needlessly embarrassed about the perfectly good bike they have bought because it is all they can afford, particularly as there seems to be a nasty breed of cyclist about now who openly sneer at those they consider to have inferior equipment.



There was a guy I used to see often while out and he always dropped a snotty comment about my old
boardman hybrid, he had a nice specialised, he really got upset when I smirked while passing him on every climb.


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## Drago (21 Oct 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> I absolutely hate that term. There is no such thing as an "Entry level bike", only in the minds of the immature teenage scribblers who pass for cycling magazine journalists these days. I've seen bikes that pro riders would have sold their souls for just two decades ago described in that way, bikes from reputable manufacturers with good quality components that would last for years.
> 
> I'm willing to bet many people are put off because they are needlessly embarrassed about the perfectly good bike they have bought because it is all they can afford, particularly as there seems to be a nasty breed of cyclist about now who openly sneer at those they consider to have inferior equipment.



Indeed. Its easy for bike journos to describe machines as "entry level" because they aren't paying for them.


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## Levo-Lon (21 Oct 2017)

I haven't read all the thread but as with most things its " A fashion " and has just had a very popular bit of must try this frenzy.
Cycling got all the tdf hype and a bit of get fit bla bla..
Lots of crap cheap bikes suddenly get bought and end up thrown in the corner of the garden or nicked.
The price of bike has got totally ridiculous..

But all things considered its only leveling out and our love of the internet has killed many businesses including bike shops.
You cant have it all ways. I love going into a shop and buying a new bike ,but everything else is on line as i just cant pay shop prices on bits and bobs


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## jefmcg (22 Oct 2017)

Dogtrousers said:


> I wonder if bike sales are falling in relation to other goods. Are we buying less stuff in general , including bikes?



... 


jefmcg said:


> Cars sales are dropping too. Let's not overreact.





srw said:


> And by about the same amount. 11% (bikes) vs 9% (cars).


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## snorri (22 Oct 2017)

Globalti said:


> Could the terrible weather have anything to do with it?


Or could it be the cost of weatherproof clothing?


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## PaulSB (22 Oct 2017)

I don’t pretend to know the answer but suggest the thread highlights the importance of supporting your LBS.

I have five bikes, all too precious to dispose of which is why I have them, all from the same LBS. I’d love to buy more for the sheer joy of ownership - I just love it. With a hybrid, winter, summer, tourer and one other rarely ridden I can’t justify more.

At 63 and retired my next purchase, some way off I hope, will be an ebike.

If bike sales are declining, and I’m not convinced, we should all support the LBS for sundries. I won’t criticise internet purchases but I would never use them if my LBS stocks it. Loyalty brings its’ rewards; I get a minimum 10% discount, free tweaks, advice and coffee by the bucket load and recently was given a £160 saddle.

Value is not simply the price you pay. Support the LBS, use it or lose it.


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## screenman (22 Oct 2017)

Business overheads are way to high for many shops and small businesses.


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## Roadhump (22 Oct 2017)

PaulSB said:


> I don’t pretend to know the answer but suggest the thread highlights the importance of supporting your LBS.
> 
> I have five bikes, all too precious to dispose of which is why I have them, all from the same LBS. I’d love to buy more for the sheer joy of ownership - I just love it. With a hybrid, winter, summer, tourer and one other rarely ridden I can’t justify more.
> 
> ...


That is very laudable, and a principle I would like to follow myself, but cycling isn't a cheap pastime, even if you don't go for expensive gear, and on a tight budget, I find I have to put loyalty to my pocket before loyalty to the small local business. It's quite sad really, but IME internet shopping usually reveals far more bargains than real shops. Added to that, you have the likes of Halfords providing 10% discount for Cycling UK members (although following the CC thread a few days ago showing their customers' support for cyclists being compelled to display number plates, I will be giving them a miss from now on). 

A simple example is the other day I saw a CC thread about tyres and asked about Gatorskins, I had seen them in Halfords at £27.99 a piece, so with the 10% discount I could have got 2 for just over 50 quid but someone pointed me in the direction of Ribble where they were available at £36.99 for 2. I looked in the LBS later and found them at the same price as Halfords, so would have gone there, but going to Ribble saved me £21 - at least Ribble is an independent business producing bikes and cycling gear, but its scale and method of operation enables it to outdo the LBS, which is the point I am trying to make.


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## Sharky (22 Oct 2017)

Drago said:


> If someone made a BMW bike then people will buy them by the dozen, and gladly pay extra to have it with a chain fitted.


http://www.bmw.co.uk/en_GB/topics/ownership/accessories/bicycles.html


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## 400bhp (22 Oct 2017)

screenman said:


> Business overheads are way to high for many shops and small businesses.


....when selling products with low margins...


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## screenman (22 Oct 2017)

400bhp said:


> ....when selling products with low margins...



Even with higher margins of you are not selling many. A good customer told me that the family owned main agent they run lost £15000 last month.


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## Aravis (22 Oct 2017)

I can't find any detailed year on year figures or graphs for UK bike sales, but it does seem that the drop being reported is to a certain extent a correction following increases in previous years. That doesn't make life easy for a retailer trying to steer a sound financial course - they have my sympathy.

By my mid teens - 1975 or thereabouts - it was evident I'd be a lifelong cyclist. It would be nice to think that people like me are the lifeblood of the industry. Well, I've bought four new bikes, in 1979, 1985, 1990 and 2005. Between 1985 and 1991 I was a relatively enthusiastic fashion-follower. Nowadays I cycle on a shoestring, so to speak, and I get a lot of pleasure from doing it that way. So, based on this sample of one, how valuable is the genuine cycling enthusiast to the industry? Roughly equivalent to a handful of chance sales to people who'd like to give it a try.

In a shop not far away there's a gorgeous blue Ridgeback Voyage 2015 - new old stock - which seems to be undamaged in storage. I'm wavering. It could make sense, but I'd want a substantial discount, which if granted would presumably be made in the hope that I'd be a profitable purchaser of parts in the future - unlikely to be realised. So I still wouldn't be helping that much.


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## bpsmith (22 Oct 2017)

I think you’ve hit the nail on the head there @Aravis. Because some people have cycled for 30 or 40 years, it doesn’t mean that they have been more valuable to the industry in keeping Bike sales alive.

There are some ‘new cyclists’ who have spent more money on bikes in a relatively short time in comparison. 

On the flip side, you might well have been responsible for others getting into cycling and so created sales, albeit from someone else’s pocket.

My point is that every single rider is as valuable as the next, whether new to the sport having been seduced by the fashionable TdF, or a seasoned life long cyclist who started many years ago...having watched the TdF. 

(It sounds like just a matter of time for that lucky Ridgeback to escape the confines of the shop and enjoy its future in your ownership.)


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## vickster (22 Oct 2017)

Must be, I've not bought a bike this year...yet


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## 400bhp (22 Oct 2017)

screenman said:


> Even with higher margins of you are not selling many. .


Well of course.


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## Smokin Joe (22 Oct 2017)

FishFright said:


> 'Entry level' is pretty simple to understand. and used for 1000's of different products without issue. I don't understand what causes you to have problems with it ?


Because the implication is that "Entry level" is something only suitable for rookies and if you want to be taken seriously you need to be looking for something better in the near future. And it's bollocks whether it applies to cameras, Hi-Fi or any other piece of kit.


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## SpokeyDokey (22 Oct 2017)

Price rises will be having an effect.

I looked at a Specialised Sequoia Elite at the end of 2015 @ £1250.

Went up to £1500 last year and is now £1850.

Weak pound playing its part.


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## Smokin Joe (22 Oct 2017)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Price rises will be having an effect.
> 
> I looked at a Specialised Sequoia Elite at the end of 2015 @ £1250.
> 
> ...


No doubt.

But surely that's a great opportunity for a budding entrepreneur or two to start manufacturing frames and components in this country? I don't pretend to be an economic expert (All economic experts are only pretending anyway) but there is a point of view that an overvalued pound is largely responsible for the decline in British manufacturing.

Maybe this is a cloud with a silver lining?


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## screenman (22 Oct 2017)

One of the biggest cost of running a business is wages and there is somewhere we struggle to compete with. Not blaming people for wanting higher wages as this is a reasonable expensive country to live in.


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## pclay (22 Oct 2017)

Perhaps the decline in sales is linked to the soaring price. There's a massive increase from last year. My 2016 bike that I purchased was an extra £500 for the 2017 bike with the same spec.

E.g. Cannondale synapse carbon di2:

2016 £3200
2018 c£3800


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## screenman (22 Oct 2017)

pclay said:


> Perhaps the decline in sales is linked to the soaring price. There's a massive increase from last year. My 2016 bike that I purchased was an extra £500 for the 2017 bike with the same spec.
> 
> E.g. Cannondale synapse carbon di2:
> 
> ...



Why do you think there has been a price increase?


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## Crankarm (22 Oct 2017)

screenman said:


> Why do you think there has been a price increase?



Brexit.


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## screenman (22 Oct 2017)

Crankarm said:


> Brexit.



Surely not As an importer an distributor of American tools I would say about a 18% increase in purchasing costs. What has also gone up by about 30% since the vote is carriage, that was almost instant.


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## 400bhp (22 Oct 2017)

With


Smokin Joe said:


> No doubt.
> 
> But surely that's a great opportunity for a budding entrepreneur or two to start manufacturing frames and components in this country? I don't pretend to be an economic expert (All economic experts are only pretending anyway) but there is a point of view that an overvalued pound is largely responsible for the decline in British manufacturing.
> 
> Maybe this is a cloud with a silver lining?


 sunk cost (machinery) building a business on current low exchange rates staying low. Big risk.


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## Smokin Joe (22 Oct 2017)

400bhp said:


> With
> 
> sunk cost (machinery) building a business on current low exchange rates staying low. Big risk.


All business start ups are a risk. That's why they call people entrepreneurs.


----------



## 400bhp (22 Oct 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> All business start ups are a risk. That's why they call people entrepreneurs.


And the smart ones aim to pick the ones with the best £return for unit of £risk.

Whether the above business is a risk worth running isn’t something you or I can answer without looking into it in more detail.

I’m just pointing it out that the above business is predicated on the exchange rate (versus the atypical places where manufacturing is done by the way) remains low.


----------



## screenman (22 Oct 2017)

I just googled average wages in Vietnam  proper eye opener.


----------



## PhilDawson8270 (22 Oct 2017)

Drago said:


> If someone made a BMW bike then people will buy them by the dozen, and gladly pay extra to have it with a chain fitted.


Most BMW owners probably have Pinarellos.


----------



## petek (22 Oct 2017)

I doubt that price affects sales. Fess up, when you want a new bike.. you buy one. Far more likely to be fewer novelty-buyers who, briefly dabbled with bikes after the Olympics when it was trendy. Like butterflies those folks will have fluttered on to a new hobby. Hence the number of decent 'low usage' second hand bikes out there which also hits new bike sales. Except, to 'us'.


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## Banjo (22 Oct 2017)

Rumour has it the government are considering some form of financial encouragement for people to buy e bikes.

Could be a lifeline to bike shops .


----------



## Crankarm (22 Oct 2017)

Banjo said:


> Rumour has it the government are considering some form of financial encouragement for people to buy e bikes.
> 
> Could be a lifeline to bike shops .



Shocking.


----------



## Banjo (22 Oct 2017)

Crankarm said:


> Shocking.



Only if you try licking the battery terminals.


----------



## Smokin Joe (22 Oct 2017)

Banjo said:


> Rumour has it the government are considering some form of financial encouragement for people to buy e bikes.
> 
> Could be a lifeline to bike shops .


If they do it for cars, then why not?


----------



## screenman (22 Oct 2017)

You see far fewer kids on bikes now than you used to 20 years ago.


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## PaulSB (22 Oct 2017)

Banjo said:


> Rumour has it the government are considering some form of financial encouragement for people to buy e bikes.
> 
> Could be a lifeline to bike shops .


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....-electric-vehicle-subsidy-to-increase-cycling


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## FishFright (22 Oct 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> Because the implication is that "Entry level" is something only suitable for rookies and if you want to be taken seriously you need to be looking for something better in the near future. And it's bollocks whether it applies to cameras, Hi-Fi or any other piece of kit.




Really ? Is that a joke ?


----------



## Smokin Joe (22 Oct 2017)

FishFright said:


> Really ? Is that a joke ?


Who's laughing?


----------



## FishFright (22 Oct 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> Who's laughing?



Me , loudly and enthusiastically


----------



## Racing roadkill (22 Oct 2017)

We’ve hit ‘peak cycle’ the ‘2012 brigade’ have decided that cycling is actually ‘rubbish innit’ and have taken up fishing / golf / ‘Park run’ because that’s ‘well good innit’. On line only operations are nailing the lid shut on the coffin of the traditional LBS type of operation. That’s progress, I guess.


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## screenman (22 Oct 2017)

Racing roadkill said:


> We’ve hit ‘peak cycle’ the ‘2012 brigade’ have decided that cycling is actually ‘rubbish innit’ and have taken up fishing / golf / ‘Park run’ because that’s ‘well good innit’. On line only operations are nailing the lid shut on the coffin of the traditional LBS type of operation. That’s progress, I guess.



None of the cyclist I know of who have started in the last 5 years are still out riding. I however know if some who have been cycling for years that have packed it all in, I think they could not keep up with all the enthusiasm.


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## Racing roadkill (22 Oct 2017)

screenman said:


> None of the cyclist I know of who have started in the last 5 years are still out riding. I however know if some who have been cycling for years that have packed it all in, I think they could not keep up with all the enthusiasm.


That’s pretty much my experience as well. Some ‘stalwarts’ who have ridden with me for over 15 years, have bailed, they’ve told me it’s because they don’t want to be associated with the ‘smash this and that and the other’ bunch, and the Stravassholes. I’ve encouraged them to keep going, some have, some haven’t. I don’t think I know of anyone, who started cycling after the Olympics / Brudley’s TdF win, thing, that are still cycling regularly. Hopefully the hardcore will come back after the situation ‘normalises’ somewhat.


----------



## Levo-Lon (22 Oct 2017)

Strava.....now theres a thing that spoils the day.
Either a chaser or an angry chaser who cant get on.


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## bpsmith (22 Oct 2017)

I started riding in late 2013. I am still riding, or at least would be without an injured leg at present.

I didn’t start as a result of 2012. I started after fancying it for many years and never quite getting around to it. I know a few who did start when 2012 brought it to the worlds attention again, and they are still riding too.

Personally, I don’t think it’s due to fashion. It might have brought more people to the sport, but they would have gone irrespective of what’s current fashion. You either enjoy cycling in a big way or you don’t.

I honestly don’t like this attitude towards new cyclists tbh. Perhaps that is also playing its part?


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## Racing roadkill (22 Oct 2017)

bpsmith said:


> I started riding in late 2013. I am still riding, or at least would be without an injured leg at present.
> 
> I didn’t start as a result of 2012. I started after fancying it for many years and never quite getting around to it. I know a few who did start when 2012 brought it to the worlds attention again, and they are still riding too.
> 
> ...


Everyone was a new cyclist once. I never thought cycling would become a ‘thing’. If anyone who started cycling because it was a ‘thing’ carries on, when it’s no longer a ‘thing’ that’s a good thing.


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## screenman (22 Oct 2017)

screenman said:


> None of the cyclist I know of who have started in the last 5 years are still out riding. I however know if some who have been cycling for years that have packed it all in, I think they could not keep up with all the enthusiasm.



Just woke up and read my post and it seems to say the opposite of what I wanted to write. So here goes.

Not one of the newer cyclist I know have packed, they are all enjoying riding still.


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## bpsmith (22 Oct 2017)

Racing roadkill said:


> Everyone was a new cyclist once. I never thought cycling would become a ‘thing’. If anyone who started cycling because it was a ‘thing’ carries on, when it’s no longer a ‘thing’ that’s a good thing.


Totally agree. That’s where I was coming from too.


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## 400bhp (22 Oct 2017)

Racing roadkill said:


> That’s pretty much my experience as well. Some ‘stalwarts’ who have ridden with me for over 15 years, have bailed, they’ve told me it’s because they don’t want to be associated with the ‘smash this and that and the other’ bunch, and the Stravassholes. I’ve encouraged them to keep going, some have, some haven’t. I don’t think I know of anyone, who started cycling after the Olympics / Brudley’s TdF win, thing, that are still cycling regularly. Hopefully the hardcore will come back after the situation ‘normalises’ somewhat.


Those reasons for quitting Cycling are ridiculous.
Cycling is a fantastic sport not lease because it can be done solo or in groups. There’s nothing stopping your friends avoiding these types of it bothers them so much.


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## Racing roadkill (22 Oct 2017)

400bhp said:


> Those reasons for quitting Cycling are ridiculous.
> Cycling is a fantastic sport not lease because it can be done solo or in groups. There’s nothing stopping your friends avoiding these types of it bothers them so much.


I know, I try to persuade them as well.


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## Johnno260 (22 Oct 2017)

Same here I’m relatively new, nothing to do with fashion or olympics, I wanted to keep fit.

I used to do martial arts but my legs are wrecked, cycling doesn’t aggravate my injuries, and above all I really enjoy it.

The forums here and my LBS have been fantastic.

When I first started I had some derogatory comments but I ignored them.

Now if I miss an opportunity to get out on the bike it really bugs me, being outside in the fresh air, sense of freedom, I’m totally hooked I will cycle for as long as I’m physically able.

I love the fact I can ride with friends or a group or go out solo, also unlike gym or fitness classes no time constraints I go when I have time so with kids that’s fantastic, and my 4yr old keeps asking when she can come out with me. 

My wife’s Grandma just stopped cycling to the shops to get her paper and groceries and she is 94 so I have a few years to go.


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## Smokin Joe (22 Oct 2017)

Whichever side of the debate you fall on, the bottom line is that the cycle shops are the ones who take the hit with a decline in sales. So I would expect to see a few more long established businesses go to the wall before the dust settles.


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## Johnno260 (22 Oct 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> Whichever side of the debate you fall on, the bottom line is that the cycle shops are the ones who take the hit with a decline in sales. So I would expect to see a few more long established businesses go to the wall before the dust settles.



Same with many things these days high street stores can’t compete with online. 

Still I purchased my bike from the LBS even though I knew I could get the same bike cheaper online, I could’ve even gone for an Ultegra spec Merida online. 

I wanted the connection with the LBS, now he will tweak things for free or a pack of biscuits.


----------



## Thorn Sherpa (22 Oct 2017)

There's always gonna be people trying new sports and hobbies out, sometimes started by certain events that popularise something and could increase the sales for a certain year. Or like others have stated schemes like bike2work that appeal to people and make getting a new bike at a certain price feasible. I know friends and family that have bought new bikes and some that used the bike2work scheme and so not needed to buy a bike again or losing interest and not using their bike again. A lot including myself prefer to buy 2nd hand and save money as opposed to buying new, if I wanted the same spec bike brand new I'd have had to spend a lot more. I understand what some people have said about the price of what some say is 'Entry Level' could put people off buying new if it puts them off riding a bike that to some is sub standard a bit like designer labels with clothes. I think this is a shame if so because I personally couldn't care what bike or clothes someone uses if they enjoy riding then good on them it's about what works for yourself not others.


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## screenman (23 Oct 2017)

Smokin Joe said:


> Whichever side of the debate you fall on, the bottom line is that the cycle shops are the ones who take the hit with a decline in sales. So I would expect to see a few more long established businesses go to the wall before the dust settles.



I have just read that online sales have slowed as well. All of my customers in the motor trade had the slowest September ever and things have not picked up.


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## PaulSB (23 Oct 2017)

Racing roadkill said:


> That’s pretty much my experience as well. Some ‘stalwarts’ who have ridden with me for over 15 years, have bailed, they’ve told me it’s because they don’t want to be associated with the ‘smash this and that and the other’ bunch, and the Stravassholes. I’ve encouraged them to keep going, some have, some haven’t. I don’t think I know of anyone, who started cycling after the Olympics / Brudley’s TdF win, thing, that are still cycling regularly. Hopefully the hardcore will come back after the situation ‘normalises’ somewhat.



I can understand how one would not wish to be associated with the behaviour of others in circumstances where it directly impacts other people. Generally my response to such situations is to visibly behave well**

I don’t though understand how someone could give up their sport because other participants see smashing some target on Strava, a pretty meaningless thing, or similar as fun. They might see these people as “Stravaassholes” but are they harming other cyclists or the public?

** It’s an unwritten rule in my club we should all do our very best to demonstrate cyclists are decent, sensible people. Simple stuff like a smile, wave, thumbs up to, for example, a driver who slows for us. It all helps.


----------



## Dirk (23 Oct 2017)

Aravis said:


> In a shop not far away there's a gorgeous blue Ridgeback Voyage 2015 - new old stock - which seems to be undamaged in storage. I'm wavering. It could make sense, but I'd want a substantial discount.


Go for it! I bought the self same model new, a couple of years ago, and got it discounted to £510.
Cracking good bike.


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## Levo-Lon (23 Oct 2017)

screenman said:


> I have just read that online sales have slowed as well. All of my customers in the motor trade had the slowest September ever and things have not picked up.




Well the bubble has burst in the car trade i think. And other businesses will suffer too.
We're about to see the cost of credit rise and the attack on diesel engine cars , plus the poor alternative choice with electric or petrol.
Brexit and the uncertainty of that.
Its going to be survival of the fittest im afraid


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## Will Spin (23 Oct 2017)

I achieved a strava personal record yesterday while out for a ride with my son in the Hampshire Southdowns area; - 58 strava "flybys". Way more cyclists than cars on our route!


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## EasyPeez (23 Oct 2017)

YukonBoy said:


> As kids bikes is the one area where the kid will need a new bike after a tear or two



You get your kids a new bike every time they get upset? Must get expensive.

If only my wife would adopt that approach every time I have a paddy...


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## MichaelW2 (23 Oct 2017)

I have seen troughs in the cycle market after previous booms. The multiples just contract and shut up shops that are not profitable, retreating to a few big city outlets. As multiples push independents out of business there is a danger that when the market contracts, many towns can find themselves without a bike shop.


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## Julia9054 (23 Oct 2017)

I have got two friends of mine into cycling. The first bought a super expensive sleek machine and is very fit. We have never been out together as he prefers long, fast rides on his own and I would not be able to keep up. He has cycled up all sorts of climbs in France but is still the only keen cyclist I know who only owns one bike.
Went with my other friend to by his first bike - a Specialized hybrid. Since then he has got into both mountain biking and road biking and now owns more bikes than my household put together! However, since his first one, all but one have been bought second hand


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## Threevok (23 Oct 2017)

I must admit I haven't bought a new bike since 2006, as I prefer to build my own.


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## Gravity Aided (9 Nov 2017)

I haven't bought new for a long time, the used market in bicycles is so vast that it seems a shame not to adopt one. (or five.)


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## screenman (9 Nov 2017)

I have not had a new bike bought for me this year, there is still time left though.


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## SkipdiverJohn (10 Nov 2017)

For a given population size, there is a finite market in any kind of item you care to think of. Things can happen to increase demand on a temporary basis, but often all this does is bring forward otherwise future purchases, which then results in a lull once the temporary demand is satisfied. Take the motor industry and the recent Road Tax changes. If I had been intending to buy a new small car that would qualify for zero or £20 PA VED and I knew the tax was going up to £140 in April, I would have bought the car earlier, especially if I intended to keep the car for years. With low rate finance available to anyone deemed credit-worthy, many thousands will have done exactly this. Hence the quiet second half of the year.
Same goes for the C2W salary sacrifice scheme. People with supporting employers have been taking advantage of the scheme on the basis they'll make the most of it before some politician comes along and moves the goalposts.
With durable goods, once you've got one of something, that's it for the life of the object. OK, there is always a rate of attrition with all things that means some replacement demand - but it may be less than it first appears in the case of bikes. Take thefts; if a car gets stolen it can't be used under it's original identity because motor vehicles are registered and subject to licencing. Not bikes though. A lot of stolen bikes simply get recycled, either as complete bikes or as parts. The total real pool of cycles therefore does not diminish at the same rate that cycles get stolen. Some get smashed up and dumped without doubt, but many others continue to be used, either unwittingly - or in the full knowledge that the rider has bought a stolen bike.
The fact that so many usable machines are being dumped in skips etc tells me we have pretty much reached saturation point. Those who want a bike or bikes have mainly already got them, plus there are plenty of people with an existing bike who don't want it, and are happy to flog it secondhand or simply chuck it away, if only of low value. Loads of youngsters in my area ride bikes, mainly because they can't afford car insurance, but at least 80% of them are the cheap entry level mountain bikes/BSO's bought online or via chain retailers. Very few of those riders will have the financial means or inclination to buy "decent" machines, and they are not going to be patronising the traditional independent bike shops that are suffering from a loss in demand. On a personal level, I have no intention of buying any new bike. I've got one I've owned for years, plus I've now got a couple of scrappers FOC that I can fix up as hacks for peanuts. I couldn't care less if my bikes are not 2018 models, or they aren't in the latest manufacturers colour scheme, so I'm not going to replace a perfectly usable bit of machinery just for the sake of keeping up with the Joneses.


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## kingrollo (10 Nov 2017)

Think motoring has got cheap again. Petrol prices haven't moved for years. On those daft lease scheme you can have a damm nice motor for £150 pm 

Zwift surgence ? - stops people riding in winter hence don't need a second bike.


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## MacB (10 Nov 2017)

FishFright said:


> 'Entry level' is pretty simple to understand. and used for 1000's of different products without issue. I don't understand what causes you to have problems with it ?





Smokin Joe said:


> Because the implication is that "Entry level" is something only suitable for rookies and if you want to be taken seriously you need to be looking for something better in the near future. And it's bollocks whether it applies to cameras, Hi-Fi or any other piece of kit.





FishFright said:


> Really ? Is that a joke ?





Smokin Joe said:


> Who's laughing?





FishFright said:


> Me , loudly and enthusiastically



I'm not sure that 'entry level' is so simple to understand as someone appears to have been laughing so hard that they have missed the double meaning marketing/upsell aspects of the phrase.


----------



## Johnno260 (10 Nov 2017)

We have reigned spending back, as day to day bills have increased, weekly shop is now daylight robbery.

Any purchases are well considered before we spend.

It will hit small business the worst, some highstreets near my have so many store closures it's quite sad.

A 2nd winter bike would be awesome, but likely hood is I will cycle through the winter on my Merida and make sure the bike is well cleaned and maintained.


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## MacB (10 Nov 2017)

A lot of what is being described here is the difference between wants and needs, most of the bike industry falls under the want category. Wants always get sacrificed over needs, well nearly always.


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## bpsmith (10 Nov 2017)

When people refer to buying a second winter bike, then we are well and truly into the realms of Want!

No offence meant @Johnno260 btw. It’s your cash to spend exactly how you like it.


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## SkipdiverJohn (10 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> When people refer to buying a second winter bike, then we are well and truly into the realms of Want!



Depends on the price range you are talking about. Ebay is full of £20-25 buy-it-now used budget- model MTB's that could serve as winter hacks. I could have bought enough of them this afternoon to fill my entire garage if I wanted There's an abundance of cheap used machinery around if you aren't too picky and just want something with two wheels. You'd have to be pretty skint not to be able to find that amount of money.


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## roadrash (10 Nov 2017)

kingrollo said:


> Zwift surgence ? - stops people riding in winter hence don't need a second bike.



I honestly don't think you need a second bike to ride in winter


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## snorri (10 Nov 2017)

I can't help thinking the industry has itself to blame for any slump by selling a mountain bike to anyone and everyone regardless of what the bike was needed for. It disturbs me to look in a bike shop window full of bikes, not a mud guard to be seen and all with more gears than I can count on my fingers.
Unfortunately the influence of sport has put emphasis on speed and performance which results in bicycles which require regular maintenance and regular replacement of expensive lightweight parts which soon sickens the newbie or returning cyclist who just needed a solid bike with chain guard and hub gears to travel a few miles to work every day.


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## screenman (10 Nov 2017)

I know of not one newbie who desires a 3 speed with mudguards. I do know that some people are starting to feel insecure so have decided to cut back.

I feel things could get worse.


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## bpsmith (10 Nov 2017)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Depends on the price range you are talking about. Ebay is full of £20-25 buy-it-now used budget- model MTB's that could serve as winter hacks. I could have bought enough of them this afternoon to fill my entire garage if I wanted There's an abundance of cheap used machinery around if you aren't too picky and just want something with two wheels. You'd have to be pretty skint not to be able to find that amount of money.


The thread is about “bike sales in decline” and aimed at the current situation of brand new sales at shops.

Your points are all valid and there are definitely great deals, at all levels, out there in the second hand market. You can’t really count those as new bike sales though tbh.


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## SkipdiverJohn (10 Nov 2017)

snorri said:


> I can't help thinking the industry has itself to blame for any slump by selling a mountain bike to anyone and everyone regardless of what the bike was needed for. It disturbs me to look in a bike shop window full of bikes, not a mud guard to be seen and all with more gears than I can count on my fingers.
> Unfortunately the influence of sport has put emphasis on speed and performance which results in bicycles which require regular maintenance and regular replacement of expensive lightweight parts which soon sickens the newbie or returning cyclist who just needed a solid bike with chain guard and hub gears to travel a few miles to work every day.



The big increase in cycling in recent years is a lot due to people taking up commuting, and commuters need bikes that are fairly robust, cheap enough to swallow the loss of by theft or damage, and not constantly need money spending on them. The big-volume MTB tyres also cope better with the appalling state of our roads full of potholes and badly repaired roadworks patching.
I think the "not enough mudguards, too many gears" phenomenon has two root causes; full mudguards add to the cost of making a bike, so leaving them off might shave say a tenner off the build budget. At BSO level, £10 is a significant chunk of the price of a bike in percentage terms. Adding an extra rear cog to the freewheel or an extra front chainring is far cheaper for the manufacturer and also enables them to go down the "ours is bigger than theirs" route when trying to sell you one of their 18 speed MTB against a rival's mere 10 speed - even if the 10 speed is better engineered. Extra gears for no reason other than to boast about them has to be seen as a type of bling for bikes, like tinted windows and silly low profile tyres are bling for cars. They are trying to appeal to the same sort of purchaser.


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## Smokin Joe (10 Nov 2017)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Depends on the price range you are talking about. Ebay is full of £20-25 buy-it-now used budget- model MTB's that could serve as winter hacks. I could have bought enough of them this afternoon to fill my entire garage if I wanted There's an abundance of cheap used machinery around if you aren't too picky and just want something with two wheels. You'd have to be pretty skint not to be able to find that amount of money.


The trouble is most of them are BSOs which were very poor quality to begin with and will have been bought by people with no knowledge or interest in looking after them. By the time you've replaced the knackered drive train, the neglected bearings, worn out tyres and whatever else is falling to bits your £25 bargain will be anything but.


----------



## SkipdiverJohn (10 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> Your points are all valid and there are definitely great deals, at all levels, out there in the second hand market. You can’t really count those as new bike sales though tbh.



If there's an abundance of secondhand anything in a market at very attractive prices, then a lot of potential new buyers will opt for used examples instead. I would not dream of buying a brand new car purely because of the depreciation, I'd get one maybe 2 years old at little over half the list price of new. 
If there was a shortage of used bikes around, used values would rise closer to new prices, therefore more buyers would bite the bullet and buy new, often for warranty reasons etc. The enthusiast market is driven by an aspiration to own a particular make/model and they will pay for it. The mass transportation market is driven by cost and ready availability. A lot of station commuters or pub-goers couldn't care less what make, model, colour etc of bike they have, so long as it's cheap and it gets them from A to B. The enthusiast market is tiny in relation to the market for get to work hacks.


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## Johnno260 (10 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> When people refer to buying a second winter bike, then we are well and truly into the realms of Want!
> 
> No offence meant @Johnno260 btw. It’s your cash to spend exactly how you like it.



ahh sorry meant a 2nd bike not a 2nd winter bike.

I have only the one currently.

I asked for mudguards for Xmas my wife’s face was funny.


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## bpsmith (10 Nov 2017)

Johnno260 said:


> ahh sorry meant a 2nd bike not a 2nd winter bike.
> 
> I have only the one currently.
> 
> I asked for mudguards for Xmas my wife’s face was funny.


As I said, wasn’t having a go, although the second winter bike idea is funny nonetheless.


----------



## NorthernDave (10 Nov 2017)

I'm in the process of buying a new bike on C2W and both Evans and Halfords have managed to do themselves out of a sale through their attitude, so although it makes the process slightly more complex I'll be buying elsewhere (from an actual shop).

It's a wonder that Evans ever sell anything as with one exception they've either been spectacularly uninterested or gone out of their way to be awkward whenever I've darkened their doors. My local Halfords store continue to be excellent, but C2W sales on non-stock bikes are handled by a Head Office team who first ignored my email, then denied getting it (despite me getting a holding email advising someone would be in touch within 24 hours), and then simply wouldn't listen to what I wanted but stuck parrot like to their sales script.

I can well see why a less determined person might have simply though "sod it" and not bothered rather than sticking with it.

On a happier note, there are six of the team I work with who've bought bikes in the last few years and 4 of us are still cycling regularly - and I'll be the third of those four to buy a new bike in the last three months, so we're doing our bit.


----------



## Nebulous (10 Nov 2017)

I'm fairly frugal with my money, which has meant over the years it has gone a long way. 

I've always had a bike, taken bikes on holiday, done stuff with the children - but we would have considered 12-16 miles with a picnic in the middle a long ride. My bike wouldn't have been out more than 10-15 times a year. We would have all had cheapish mountain bikes, not very well looked after. The main reason for that is - from the 80s on most people were led down a route where bikes were not for the road. We used forest tracks, old railway lines and canal footpaths, often using a car to get the bikes there. I was happy enough to venture onto the road, but would have been very reluctant to let my children do the same. I think that experience would be much more typical of the general poulation, though not typical of most of the people who post on here. 

Move on to 2010 when I took up cycling seriously and I still haven't adjusted to the prices. I don't spend that kind of money anywhere else, and although I have relaxed the purse strings a bit it still doesn't compute. I now have two £2000 bikes, but didn't personally pay that for either of them. The driver who knocked me off, wrecked my Edinburgh bike tourer and broke my fingers paid for my Tarmac for instance. 

Brexit hasn't happened yet of course - all we are seeing is the drop in the £ as a result of loss of confidence in the markets. Austerity is also playing a role. A decade of 1% payrises for public sector workers has reduced the ability to buy things. Combine that with increased housing costs and huge levels of indebtedness and something has to give. 

That's a bit of a ramble, through several different topics that are all connected as far as I am concerned. 

A belief that a bike should be no more than £250, the road becoming a forbidden zone, the relentless increase in costs until a bike costs as much as some cars, combined with people having less money, have all come together in a perfect storm which will hit the consumer market pretty hard.


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## mustang1 (10 Nov 2017)

Pale Rider said:


> A couple of bike shop owners I've spoken to in York and Sunderland agree with you.
> 
> Brad and our world beating track cyclists caused a useful spike in sales for a couple of years.
> 
> ...



I guess when prices of e-bikes comes down then it'll start pushing up the sales. Just need to reach that price point for the kick off to start?


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## mustang1 (10 Nov 2017)

Banjo said:


> Could be partly due to the millions of barely used bikes available secondhand from people who didnt stick with it.
> 
> It would be interesting to find out what makes someone buy an expensive bike then quickly stop riding it.
> 
> ...


Fashion.


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## snorri (10 Nov 2017)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The big increase in cycling in recent years is a lot due to people taking up commuting,


The big increase you refer to is localised, there hasn't been a national increase, numbers are falling.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/cycling-rates-fall-despite-government-aim-1-4242524


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## mustang1 (10 Nov 2017)

Drago said:


> If someone made a BMW bike then people will buy them by the dozen, and gladly pay extra to have it with a chain fitted.



I think that's why spesh brought out s-works as a brand. But the price is so still too high?


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## tyred (10 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> I know of not one newbie who desires a 3 speed with mudguards..



Probably because that's not what fashion dictates any more yet it is desirable for a utility bike.


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## mustang1 (10 Nov 2017)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Price rises will be having an effect.
> 
> I looked at a Specialised Sequoia Elite at the end of 2015 @ £1250.
> 
> ...



In 2006, a langster cost £350. Today it costs £600. In 2006, an Allez cost £500 with Sora/tiagra/tektro mix. Today it's £900. 

Almost double price in 10 years. It's nuts.


----------



## mustang1 (10 Nov 2017)

[QUOTE 5034539, member: 9609"]I tend to think sales of about everything is falling, UK has some mega readjustments to make over the next few years and with consumer debt at near record levels we're not well placed to meet the challenges ahead. Im predicting disastrous retail sales figures this xmas as the country finally wakes up to the storm on the horizon and starts to baton down the hatches. So I don't think it is a specific 'bike' thing.[/QUOTE]

I think the opposite. It will be another cracking Xmas for retail sales plus post Xmas sales.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

mustang1 said:


> In 2006, a langster cost £350. Today it costs £600. In 2006, an Allez cost £500 with Sora/tiagra/tektro mix. Today it's £900.
> 
> Almost double price in 10 years. It's nuts.



To you it may be, to many others £900 is not a lot to spend on a bike.


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## Banjo (11 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> To you it may be, to many others £900 is not a lot to spend on a bike.


Wether you consider it a lot of money or not is irrellevant.The point made was that its a huge price rise.


----------



## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

Banjo said:


> Wether you consider it a lot of money or not is irrellevant.The point made was that its a huge price rise.



Maybe they were too cheap before. Must admit unlike you I have no idea of what bikes cost 6 years ago, so if I was in the market for one it would not be a consideration.


----------



## Johnno260 (11 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> As I said, wasn’t having a go, although the second winter bike idea is funny nonetheless.



Given the choice I would love a Merida Silas for winter but that’s a 100% want over a need.


----------



## Cycleops (11 Nov 2017)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> On a personal level, I have no intention of buying any new bike. I've got one I've owned for years, plus I've now got a couple of scrappers FOC that I can fix up as hacks for peanuts. I couldn't care less if my bikes are not 2018 models, or they aren't in the latest manufacturers colour scheme, so I'm not going to replace a perfectly usable bit of machinery just for the sake of keeping up with the Joneses.


I’m with you on that one but there are also many who wouldn’t be seen dead drunk on a bike in an older unfashionable colour scheme. There are the people fuelling demand for new machinery plus those who seem to ‘collect’ them simply because they can.


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## Banjo (11 Nov 2017)

The new bikes I have bought have been last years models discounted.Unless the spec is upgraded why pay hundreds more for essentially the same bike?


----------



## Johnno260 (11 Nov 2017)

Banjo said:


> The new bikes I have bought have been last years models discounted.Unless the spec is upgraded why pay hundreds more for essentially the same bike?



When I bought my Merida I paid a ton less as it was last years colours, mechanically it was the same as the 2017 model.


----------



## bpsmith (11 Nov 2017)

Johnno260 said:


> Given the choice I would love a Merida Silas for winter but that’s a 100% want over a need.


Nice. Nothing wrong with wants, as long as something else doesn’t suffer I guess.


----------



## Blue Hills (11 Nov 2017)

Johnno260 said:


> I bought mine around a year ago, and it was a battle getting the wife to accept the want/need to ditch the hybrid for a drop bar.
> .


By the by/e why did the wife have a call on this? Do you have a call on her economical health and transport investment?


----------



## mustang1 (11 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> To you it may be, to many others £900 is not a lot to spend on a bike.



Yeah I know. But the point I was (trying) to make is I'm not sure why the bike would double in value in only 10 years. I guess everyone is in on this inflation mumbo jumbo.


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## Blue Hills (11 Nov 2017)

mustang1 said:


> I think the opposite. It will be another cracking Xmas for retail sales plus post Xmas sales.


I think you are missing the big picture. The west has a lot of adjustment to do. In the meantime many delight in/flash their eastern built tech while fbing me me me.


----------



## Johnno260 (11 Nov 2017)

Blue Hills said:


> By the by/e why did the wife have a call on this? Do you have a call on her economical health and transport investment?



I was made redundant by my firm, but they have kept me on as a temp, so any big spends I talk to her about as technically I don’t have a full time job. 

I saved my rear end off for my roadie and everyone was made aware if they wanted ideas for birthday/Xmas gifts then it was vouchers for the LBS.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

Banjo said:


> The new bikes I have bought have been last years models discounted.Unless the spec is upgraded why pay hundreds more for essentially the same bike?



Nothing wrong with buying something when you want it rather than when it becomes chaeper as you may not live to that day.

Living as I do in Lincolnshire I know of so many people who live extremely frugaly and die leaving large wads of cash. There again if your pleasure in life comes from hoarding the pennies then I am sure they are happy.


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## SpokeyDokey (11 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> Nothing wrong with buying something when you want it rather than when it becomes chaeper as you may not live to that day.
> 
> Living as I do in Lincolnshire I know of so many people who live extremely frugaly and die leaving large wads of cash. There again if your pleasure in life comes from hoarding the pennies then I am sure they are happy.



Frugal is a good quality in my book. If more people were more frugal we wouldn't be sitting on a trillion pounds (or whatever the number is) of personal debt - some of which has been accrued by expenditure on needs and some of which by expenditure on wants. No idea what the split would be.

Frugal doesn't mean a life of penury. Mrs SD and I are very frugal but we are a million miles from hard up and lead a very comfortable life.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

You do not have to have debts to not be frugal.


----------



## petek (11 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> Nothing wrong with buying something when you want it rather than when it becomes chaeper as you may not live to that day.
> 
> Living as I do in Lincolnshire I know of so many people who live extremely frugaly and die leaving large wads of cash. There again if your pleasure in life comes from hoarding the pennies then I am sure they are happy.


Aye, Lincolnshire people know what a pound will buy. That plus we have a lot of retirees eking out their pensions.
MrsP is the saver in our house, I'm not; but she keeps me on a short lead.
Advantage of that being, if either of us does want a big ticket item, we can buy it.
Hence my new Pashley.


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## SpokeyDokey (11 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> You do not have to have debts to not be frugal.



Agreed. But looking at news story after news story about people up to their neck in debt not knowing what to do to get out of their financial mire and belatedly realising that buying the latest greatest, following must have trends, flitting off to eg Dubai etc was their downfall; leads me to believe that a bit of frugality wouldn't come amiss in some quarters.

Bit OT - maybe we need a frugality thread.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

petek said:


> Aye, Lincolnshire people know what a pound will buy. That plus we have a lot of retirees eking out their pensions.
> MrsP is the saver in our house, I'm not; but she keeps me on a short lead.
> Advantage of that being, if either of us does want a big ticket item, we can buy it.
> Hence my new Pashley.



There are a lot of wealthy pensioners in Lincolnshire, a longtime of making Yorkshire folk look generous has taken care of that.


----------



## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

SpokeyDokey said:


> Agreed. But looking at news story after news story about people up to their neck in debt not knowing what to do to get out of their financial mire and belatedly realising that buying the latest greatest, following must have trends, flitting off to eg Dubai etc was their downfall; leads me to believe that a bit of frugality wouldn't come amiss in some quarters.
> 
> Bit OT - maybe we need a frugality thread.




I agree with all your points, the point I was making is that if you can afford to then why wait.


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## petek (11 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> There are a lot of wealthy pensioners in Lincolnshire, a longtime of making Yorkshire folk look generous has taken care of that.


You can be a 'wealthier' pensioner in Lincolnshire than elsewhere IMO.
Money goes a lot further here.
Artisanal loaf of bread in Burnham Market = £6-40.
Artisanal loaf here = £1


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## bpsmith (11 Nov 2017)

I can’t argue with being Frugal. That doesn’t mean you buy the cheapest of everything in my book. Far from it in fact. I like reasonably nice things, but then I look after them and make them last a long time.

The downside to others being frugal is that prices rise. Less sales = higher prices.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> I can’t argue with being Frugal. That doesn’t mean you buy the cheapest gas f everything in my book. Far from it in fact. I like reasonably nice things, but then I look after them and make them last a long time.
> 
> The downside to others being frugal is that prices rise. Less sales = higher prices.



Less sales less jobs, I would also imagine less sales less taxes paid.


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## Banjo (11 Nov 2017)

Nothing to do with being frugal .If I have x number of pounds to buy a bike and that will buy me a better bike in last years colours seems like a no brainer.


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## bpsmith (11 Nov 2017)

Banjo said:


> Nothing to do with being frugal .If I have x number of pounds to buy a bike and that will buy me a better bike in last years colours seems like a no brainer.


I am totally with you there. That is my own definition of frugal.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

Banjo said:


> Nothing to do with being frugal .If I have x number of pounds to buy a bike and that will buy me a better bike in last years colours seems like a no brainer.




But if you liked this year's colours and had a bit more money?


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## Johnno260 (11 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> But if you liked this year's colours and had a bit more money?



For me I preferred the 2017 colours but I saved £300 on getting the 2016 model, still a no brainer imo.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

I would rather have the one I liked the most, great that we have choices. What did you spend the £300 you saved on.


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## Johnno260 (11 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> I would rather have the one I liked the most, great that we have choices. What did you spend the £300 you saved on.



It went towards a trip away with the family, so win for everyone.

I still love my 2016 colour bike and I can’t see me replacing it anytime soon.


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## SkipdiverJohn (11 Nov 2017)

> I’m with you on that one but there are also many who wouldn’t be seen dead drunk on a bike in an older unfashionable colour scheme. There are the people fuelling demand for new machinery plus those who seem to ‘collect’ them simply because they can.


Those sorts of people are more-money-than-sense victims of rampant consumerism. I've decided to reject all this nonsense. My "modern" car is 11 years old and works perfectly. My iPhone is an old 4S, which oddly enough still allows me to make calls and texts just as well as the latest £££ version. If you spot me wearing a pair of scruffy old jeans, they will be in that state due to the amount of wear they have had, not because I bought artificially "distressed" ones new in the shop. Those of use who refuse to allow big business to dictate our choice of bikes, cars, phones, clothing etc get a lot more bang for our buck - and I would suggest usually aren't the people up to our eyeballs in debt either.


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## bpsmith (11 Nov 2017)

I am fancying a 2018 bike as the colour is awesome. I have seen the 2017 version for £600 less. I like last years colourtoi, but prefer the newer colour. £600 more? That’s a tough call!

As it happens, the frame has been updated quite a bit and the newer version of the groupset is fitted.

Luckily, I don’t yet have the cash, so it’s academic for now.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

So original" more money than sense" if they are in debt I would say it may be the opposite.

Big business give me choices, it does make me spend money, as a way of outdoing you the jacket I put on in cold mornings to walk from my car to the pool is 35 years old.


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## FishFright (11 Nov 2017)

MacB said:


> I'm not sure that 'entry level' is so simple to understand as someone appears to have been laughing so hard that they have missed the double meaning marketing/upsell aspects of the phrase.




All that effort for just that ? Boring day ?


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## SkipdiverJohn (11 Nov 2017)

> I am fancying a 2018 bike as the colour is awesome. I have seen the 2017 version for £600 less. I like last years colourtoi, but prefer the newer colour. £600 more? That’s a tough call!


Have the best of both worlds!. Patience is a virtue. Wait until the tail end of 2018, then buy the 2018 model you seem to like so much at a similarly discounted price when the retailer wants to clear the space for the 2019 models. If a bike/car/whatever appeals that much now, it is still going to appeal in a year's time, during which you can save up the money and pay cash rather than go into debt for it.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Have the best of both worlds!. Patience is a virtue. Wait until the tail end of 2018, then buy the 2018 model you seem to like so much at a similarly discounted price when the retailer wants to clear the space for the 2019 models. If a bike/car/whatever appeals that much now, it is still going to appeal in a year's time, during which you can save up the money and pay cash rather than go into debt for it.



I agree with not going into debt, but what if you have no problem having the cash now.


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## SkipdiverJohn (11 Nov 2017)

> I agree with not going into debt, but what if you have no problem having the cash now.



Then it comes down to how much of a premium you are willing to pay for instant gratification, as opposed to getting maximum value for money. For a £600 saving, I'd happily wait a year.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Then it comes down to how much of a premium you are willing to pay for instant gratification, as opposed to getting maximum value for money. For a £600 saving, I'd happily wait a year.



I still cannot see the point of waiting if the money is not a consideration.


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## Johnno260 (11 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> I still cannot see the point of waiting if the money is not a consideration.



It depends some people still like getting a deal, I waited for mine and took the previous years model, as I saw no reason paying a lot more for a paint job, I could afford it, but also I could do some other things with the saving.

It depends on the person I suppose, it’s like walking into a car showroom and paying the window price as you can, screw that I’m talking them down or walking.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

So no discount no deal, even if you want it.


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## bpsmith (11 Nov 2017)

Part of the fun is getting a cracking deal. I won’t buy something for the sake of it, even if it’s a great deal, but I do hunt down the best way to purchase. Especially on components, clothing, etc.

For example, a certain online store has a Price Match policy that only matches a few others. Some of the others are very competitive on price. Once they have the price I like, I will get the other to Price Match. At work we can buy a gift code for this company, and save 7%. I will then use a cash back site to make the order and get a further 2-3% back at some point.

Sometimes it’s just a few quid, but it can mount up to a decent saving on larger ticket items. They’re huge companies that I am talking about, so I have no qualms in getting the discount.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

I have no problem getting discounts, I just have a problem wasting a chunk of my life to get it.

In truth I do not think that many find the a bike they want then wait for it to go down. I think they buy what they have chosen now, which happens to be an older model at a reduced price.


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## bpsmith (11 Nov 2017)

I have a 30 mins forced lunch break that I often don’t use for anything worthwhile, so I do my discount bit there at work.

I definitely can’t wait once I have made my decision though.


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## Johnno260 (11 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> So no discount no deal, even if you want it.



Waiting doesn’t bother me, each to their own though.


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## screenman (11 Nov 2017)

Johnno260 said:


> Waiting doesn’t bother me, each to their own though.



I do not like waiting too long as you never know what tomorrow will bring.


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## SkipdiverJohn (12 Nov 2017)

> , it’s like walking into a car showroom and paying the window price as you can, screw that I’m talking them down or walking.



The only time in my life I've ever bought a brand new car, was because the dealer made me an offer I simply couldn't refuse. He couldn't have made any profit margin on it, the discount was huge. And I paid for it in cash too, so he didn't even get any commission for arranging car finance. Normally, I consider buying vehicles new a massive waste of money, and a nothing but a mug's game.


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## MacB (12 Nov 2017)

FishFright said:


> All that effort for just that ? Boring day ?



Effort, have you ever multi quoted?....never mind, I'm guessing you're not about to apologise for being a numpty and mockingly chastising someone for an error they hadn't made. Instead you want to double down and have a shot at mocking me as well, fair enough but you were still wrong and any decent human being would have acknowledged that.


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## screenman (12 Nov 2017)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The only time in my life I've ever bought a brand new car, was because the dealer made me an offer I simply couldn't refuse. He couldn't have made any profit margin on it, the discount was huge. And I paid for it in cash too, so he didn't even get any commission for arranging car finance. Normally, I consider buying vehicles new a massive waste of money, and a nothing but a mug's game.



Dealer bonus going on there.


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## Johnno260 (12 Nov 2017)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The only time in my life I've ever bought a brand new car, was because the dealer made me an offer I simply couldn't refuse. He couldn't have made any profit margin on it, the discount was huge. And I paid for it in cash too, so he didn't even get any commission for arranging car finance. Normally, I consider buying vehicles new a massive waste of money, and a nothing but a mug's game.



Same I never bought a brand new car, my current car is a 2011 plate I purchased it when it was a year old, but still negotiated the price down.


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## Blue Hills (12 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> I have a 30 mins forced lunch break that I often don’t use for anything worthwhile, so I do my discount bit there at work.
> 
> I definitely can’t wait once I have made my decision though.



Your employers force you to have a 30 min lunch break. The monsters.


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## screenman (12 Nov 2017)

If people never bought a new car where would you get your used one's from.


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## bpsmith (12 Nov 2017)

Blue Hills said:


> Your employers force you to have a 30 min lunch break. The monsters.


Fair enough. Can understand how that must read. 

What I meant was that it’s 30 mins of downtime that I use for discounting hunting as otherwise waste it.


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## Johnno260 (12 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> If people never bought a new car where would you get your used one's from.



Again each to there own, My opinion on new cars is you drive it off the forecourt and it’s already depreciated. 

Some people want a new car and it’s their cash to spend as they please.


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## bpsmith (12 Nov 2017)

I never understood the concept of something depreciating the moment it’s bought. That only means something if the owner immediately attempts to sell said item the moment that they step out of the vendors premises...and who does that generally?

It’s like saying that you wouldn’t buy a second hand car, because it would be worth less in 3 years time.


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## Johnno260 (12 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> I never understood the concept of something hung deprecating the moment it’s bought. That only means something if the owner immediately attempts to sell said item the moment that they step out of the vendors premises...and who does that generally?
> 
> It’s like saying that you wouldn’t buy a second hand car, because it would be worse less in 3 years time.



Friend who wrote off a car when it was a week old wasn’t best pleased with the payout from his insurance.


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## screenman (12 Nov 2017)

Johnno260 said:


> Friend who wrote off a car when it was a week old wasn’t best pleased with the payout from his insurance.



If he did not get new one he was a total muppet.


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## bpsmith (12 Nov 2017)

Johnno260 said:


> Friend who wrote off a car when it was a week old wasn’t best pleased with the payout from his insurance.


What @screenman said.

He should also have been more careful?


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## SkipdiverJohn (12 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> If people never bought a new car where would you get your used one's from.


Most nearly-new secondhand stock comes from ex-fleet sales and PCP lease handbacks.

[QUOTE post: 5037349, member: 32090"]I never understood the concept of something hung deprecating the moment it’s bought. That only means something if the owner immediately attempts to sell said item the moment that they step out of the vendors premises...and who does that generally? It’s like saying that you wouldn’t buy a second hand car, because it would be worth less in 3 years time.[/QUOTE]

The fact is that almost everything we buy depreciates in value, as we consume it's useful life by using it, and it's desirability reduces as it's age increases. If you bought a really fancy brand new bike today costing £6k Retail, £1,000 of that price would go to HM Govt in VAT. That's dead money. If you had some sort of unexpected financial meltdown and needed to sell it next week to raise cash in a hurry, the absolute max starting point for a buyer would be £5k, IF the bike was still in it's crate. They're only interested in buying a bike after all, not reimbursing you your VAT bill. Then, if the bike had been removed from it's crate and a wheel had touched tarmac, they would say "this isn't new, it's been ridden". I would say, on a good day, your one week old £6k bike might fetch £4.5 k and quite possibly nearer £4k. This is why the canny motorist buys nearly-new cars where the steepest part of the depreciation curve involving the VAT has been passed, and it begins to flatten off.


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## Ming the Merciless (12 Nov 2017)

In June 2016 you got $1.42 to the pound and €1.27 to the pound. They are now $1.31 and €1.13 so it is bound to depress sales. If we do not get a trade deal with the EU it will be interesting to see what impact that has on import dury from European countries currently 0%. Bikes are 14% duty plus 20% Vat and bike frames and forks 4.7% duty plus 20% Vat if they come from outside the EU. If the stuff from the EU has those hikes expect big increases and further depression in the sales.


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## screenman (12 Nov 2017)

Many people have a desire to own something new, others a desire to save money. 

You forgot mobility funded cars, 135,000 of them each year come to the used car market.


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## screenman (12 Nov 2017)

YukonBoy said:


> In June 2016 you got $1.42 to the pound and €1.27 to the pound. They are now $1.31 and €1.13 so it is bound to depress sales. If we do not get a trade deal with the EU it will be interesting to see what impact that has on import dury from European countries currently 0%. Bikes are 14% duty plus 20% Vat and bike frames and forks 4.7% duty plus 20% Vat if they come from outside the EU. If the stuff from the EU has those hikes expect big increases and further depression in the sales.



But of course the people who voted out were not thinking about the financial aspects.


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## bpsmith (12 Nov 2017)

I totally understand the concept @SkipdiverJohn, and it would be very unfortunate if any of us had to sell that £6k bike very soon after purchasing.

I agree there. What I don’t agree with, is making purchases solely on the worry that I will need to sell them immediately. That’s no way to live.

Another point is that if you make canny purchases then you can buy a brand new bike without losing anything at all. Your example is perfect when talking about the last bike that I bought. A rather fetching Ridley Noah SL Ultegra model, with Lotto Soudal paint job. Full price was £3,400. I paid £2,250. That’s around 33.8% off. Worst case, using your figures above, that £6k bike sells for £4k...which equates to 33.3%.

At that time, the cheapest bike, in those colours and spec, available on eBay in used condition was £2,750.


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## bpsmith (12 Nov 2017)

YukonBoy said:


> In June 2016 you got $1.42 to the pound and €1.27 to the pound. They are now $1.31 and €1.13 so it is bound to depress sales. If we do not get a trade deal with the EU it will be interesting to see what impact that has on import dury from European countries currently 0%. Bikes are 14% duty plus 20% Vat and bike frames and forks 4.7% duty plus 20% Vat if they come from outside the EU. If the stuff from the EU has those hikes expect big increases and further depression in the sales.


Or just buy from outside the EU. We already have those deals in place and many bikes are bought here on a daily basis.

I don’t buy the hype around the “deal” with Europe tbh. Supply and Demand dictates everything. If we had on tax, people either accept it and everything just costs more, or we stop buying. What happens next? They either drop their prices, or we find someone else selling cheaper. Or make the stuff ourselves. Imagine that!

They won’t want that and will clearly want to come to a better arrangement. Especially considering that we import a lot more than we export these days.


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## Ming the Merciless (12 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> Or just buy from outside the EU. We already have those deals in place and many bikes are bought here on a daily basis.
> 
> I don’t buy the hype around the “deal” with Europe tbh. Supply and Demand dictates everything. If we had on tax, people either accept it and everything just costs more, or we stop buying. What happens next? They either drop their prices, or we find someone else selling cheaper. Or make the stuff ourselves. Imagine that!
> 
> They won’t want that and will clearly want to come to a better arrangement. Especially considering that we import a lot more than we export these days.



Yeah but that 30-40% increase in price is not to be just absorbed, it is pause for thought.


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## SkipdiverJohn (12 Nov 2017)

YukonBoy said:


> But of course the people who voted out were not thinking about the financial aspects.



The EU can get lost as far as I'm concerned, I want nothing to do with them and yes I voted for Brexit. If we had another referendum tomorrow, I would STILL vote for Brexit. For years the EU has been artificially raising the cost of all sorts of imported goods and food as a result of their barmy protectionist bloc policies and the CAP. Brexit is a massive opportunity to obtain products from all over the world under generally lower WTO tariffs - and not have to subsidise the French farming industry. The Brexit-related arguments about the exchange rate are spurious as the Pound has been lower against the Euro on previous occasions, long before the Referendum date was even announced. The world is a big place, the EU is just a tiny part of it, and an ever-declining proportion of world trade.


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## screenman (12 Nov 2017)

The value of the pound to the dollar affects my customers. I am sure it has been felt in the cycle trade.

Can I be cheeky and ask if it has had any impact on your industry.


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## SkipdiverJohn (12 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> The value of the pound to the dollar affects my customers. I am sure it has been felt in the cycle trade.
> 
> Can I be cheeky and ask if it has had any impact on your industry.



The exchange rate doesn't make a blind bit of difference to my day job. On a personal level, the weaker the Pound is the better, as I have some investments that declare their profits in Dollars. Most of the money I spend myself is spent in the domestic economy, within the UK. I'm not bothered about the prices of things like foreign holidays or imported goods from the EU.


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## bpsmith (12 Nov 2017)

YukonBoy said:


> Yeah but that 30-40% increase in price is not to be just absorbed, it is pause for thought.


That’s up to the market to decide surely.


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## Blue Hills (12 Nov 2017)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Most nearly-new secondhand stock comes from ex-fleet sales and PCP lease handbacks.


Very possibly true. Or even definitely. I used to work for a company which kitted out its account managers with bright red audis. Which it put "personalised" company plates on to look flash. But none were bought new. All were second hand but with extremely low mileage. Very canny. I always wondered how they found them. My theory, which i shared with the office, was that they had been used by stressed out execs who had gassed themselves in them before clocking too many miles / edit remembered: and that they identified them by scanning death notices. Your explanation is more likely. And less tragic. I eventually disposed of one of mine, after a few driving adventures, by crashing it into an unmarked police car.


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## screenman (12 Nov 2017)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> The exchange rate doesn't make a blind bit of difference to my day job. On a personal level, the weaker the Pound is the better, as I have some investments that declare their profits in Dollars. Most of the money I spend myself is spent in the domestic economy, within the UK. I'm not bothered about the prices of things like foreign holidays or imported goods from the EU.



How about imported things from outside the EU?


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## SkipdiverJohn (12 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> How about imported things from outside the EU?



Obviously the cost of any imported product depends on the exchange rate, and currencies constantly fluctuate for a variety of reasons. Ultimately, we in the UK need to go back to making more things ourselves and importing less, so that we don't run a horrendous balance of payments deficit. The UK and USA are amongst the worst offenders for sucking in loads of imports and relying on a surplus in financial services to bail out the figures. It's a risky strategy, as it exposes our domestic economy to the vagaries of all sorts of external factors we have little influence over.


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## screenman (12 Nov 2017)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> Obviously the cost of any imported product depends on the exchange rate, and currencies constantly fluctuate for a variety of reasons. Ultimately, we in the UK need to go back to making more things ourselves and importing less, so that we don't run a horrendous balance of payments deficit. The UK and USA are amongst the worst offenders for sucking in loads of imports and relying on a surplus in financial services to bail out the figures. It's a risky strategy, as it exposes our domestic economy to the vagaries of all sorts of external factors we have little influence over.



One of the highest costs involved in manufacturing is wages, the rest you can figure, how do the UK get around that one.

There is a shop in Lincoln that would lend itself well to a bike shop, £34,000 pa rent £19,000 rates. That is a reason things are slowing.


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## Ming the Merciless (12 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> That’s up to the market to decide surely.



Well no as that would be the additional base cost if we are outside the EU single market.


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## SkipdiverJohn (12 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> One of the highest costs involved in manufacturing is wages, the rest you can figure, how do the UK get around that one.
> 
> There is a shop in Lincoln that would lend itself well to a bike shop, £34,000 pa rent £19,000 rates. That is a reason things are slowing.



It's not going to be domestically viable to manufacture low-value goods without a high degree of automation, due, as you say to pay costs.. It's a different matter for things where wages aren't the biggest cost component though. 
As regards the shop, that's symptomatic of the obsession in the UK with property prices as though they in themselves, are a generator of prosperity. Rents are high because investment yields on property are related to the value of the property being rented out. Rates are high because they are based on rental values! Our government wastes far too much money on all sorts of pointless nonsense and levies far too much tax on bricks & mortar businesses. We don't have a small business-friendly environment that encourages enterprise. That needs to change, regardless of Brexit..


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## screenman (12 Nov 2017)

We may need somebody with a massive magic wand.

Are not most large items made from lots of low cost one's.


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## bpsmith (12 Nov 2017)

YukonBoy said:


> Well no as that would be the additional base cost if we are outside the EU single market.


Indeed it would. The market (as in buyers and sellers) would then decide if things continue as is. If UK purchasers decide they aren’t prepared to pay the new price fee, then they either won’t buy at all or buy elsewhere. The sellers would then adjust pricing accordingly. As said before, it’s Demand and Supply.


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## screenman (12 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> Indeed it would. The market (as in buyers and sellers) would then decide if things continue as is. If UK purchasers decide they aren’t prepared to pay the new price fee, then they either won’t buy at all or buy elsewhere. The sellers would then adjust pricing accordingly. As said before, it’s Demand and Supply.



What if they cannot adjust price, how low can you go on the products you supply. There also comes a time when some customers are no longer worth having.


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## bpsmith (12 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> What if they cannot adjust price, how low can you go on the products you supply. There also comes a time when some customers are no longer worth having.


Well the current exchange rate gifts them 10% straight away. The rest depends on their profit margin I guess. I agree that there’s only so far that they can go. Also agree on the custom no longer being valuable.

That’s where their governments come in when striking the deals.

All this rubbish about no deal is scaremongering.


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## Johnno260 (12 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> If he did not get new one he was a total muppet.



He was a total tool.


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## jefmcg (12 Nov 2017)

Sigh. Not keeping up with this thread, but just like to emphasise....



jefmcg said:


> Cars sales are dropping too. Let's not overreact.



(mind you, most of the reason posted apply to all big purchases so ....)


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## Ming the Merciless (12 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> Indeed it would. The market (as in buyers and sellers) would then decide if things continue as is. If UK purchasers decide they aren’t prepared to pay the new price fee, then they either won’t buy at all or buy elsewhere. The sellers would then adjust pricing accordingly. As said before, it’s Demand and Supply.



And you think the bikes and parts have a margin above 40% to absorb that, interesting.


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## bpsmith (13 Nov 2017)

YukonBoy said:


> And you think the bikes and parts have a margin above 40% to absorb that, interesting.


No. If you read my other replies in this thread, you will see that isn’t what I am getting at. My point is, it is clear that the governments of the remaining EU countries will have to strike a deal if they want to continue trading with us. The media reporting about a no deal scenario is just scaremongering.


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## mustang1 (13 Nov 2017)

Banjo said:


> Nothing to do with being frugal .If I have x number of pounds to buy a bike and that will buy me a better bike in last years colours seems like a no brainer.



Especially these days where it seems that previous model year bikes have higher end components. You might get for example a 105 bike instead of tiagra.


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## mustang1 (13 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> I agree with not going into debt, but what if you have no problem having the cash now.


Good point. There are other benefits for buying now rather than later (if you have the cash like you say): if you wait until end of season, you miss all that quality riding in fine summer weather. 

Or perhaps you don't have a bike and want to get into the sport; you will miss a year's worth of getting fit.


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## jefmcg (13 Nov 2017)

[QUOTE 5037944, member: 9609"]there has been a fall, but it has come on the back of 5 straight years of growth (the PPI boom is coming to and end and cars is what this windfall was wasted on). The year to date of new registrations of 2.3m is still higher than any year from 08 to 13.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=u...AUICygC&biw=1327&bih=702#imgrc=hM4q3wqxMnGX0M:

I doubt there are few more eager than me to see an end to our completely barking mad obsession with the motor car, but I'm not confident that we are currently seeing it. For many, their world revolves around this machine. [/QUOTE]
My mentioning car sales wasn't to say something was happening to cars sales but to say the title of this thread should probably be "Sales in decline"


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## Smokin Joe (13 Nov 2017)

jefmcg said:


> My mentioning car sales wasn't to say something was happening to cars sales but to say the title of this thread should probably be "Sales in decline"


But this is a cycling forum, hence my title of "Bike sales in decline". 

If it was meant as a general observation on retail sales the title would have read "Bike and car sales in decline but sales of Vaping equipment growing rapidly with good forecasts for the new iphone but some uncertainty on imported shoes".


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## Ming the Merciless (13 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> No. If you read my other replies in this thread, you will see that isn’t what I am getting at. My point is, it is clear that the governments of the remaining EU countries will have to strike a deal if they want to continue trading with us. The media reporting about a no deal scenario is just scaremongering.



I said if they do not come to a deal. That was quite clear. That is the context we are working within. It is no good replying to me then ignoring that salient point within the discussion.


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## bpsmith (13 Nov 2017)

YukonBoy said:


> I said if they do not come to a deal. That was quite clear. That is the context we are working within. It is no good replying to me then ignoring that salient point within the discussion.


You’re dreaming if you think there won’t be a deal. That’s why I gave you the benefit of the doubt when overlooking the point.


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## Smokin Joe (13 Nov 2017)

[QUOTE 5038911, member: 9609"]fair enough - i just got awfully excited at the thought of car culture coming to an end, it has to happen one day, the nation has to wake up one sunny morning and collectively think to itself - *WTF are we wasting all our money on these over bloated contraptions for?*[/QUOTE]
Because you can travel long distances from door to door in comfort, keeping warm and dry with no exertion. It may not appeal to you, but in whatever form it takes personalised non human powered transport will always be seen as highly desireable.


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## Blue Hills (13 Nov 2017)

[QUOTE 5038911, member: 9609"]fair enough - i just got awfully excited at the thought of car culture coming to an end, it has to happen one day, the nation has to wake up one sunny morning and collectively think to itself - WTF are we wasting all our money on these over bloated contraptions for?[/QUOTE]
Think yourself lucky you don't live in italy. Then you would really blow a gasket. Despite its many, and increasing, ills London is very sane on this. Many many londoners feel no need for a car. On the other hand they are spoiled for public transport while many other places have their buses incinerated.


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## Ming the Merciless (13 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> You’re dreaming if you think there won’t be a deal. That’s why I gave you the benefit of the doubt when overlooking the point.



No you chose to ignore the scenario because it did not fit your argument. I did not say there would or would not be a deal. I was stating the likely scenario if there is no deal. There is none so blind as those who don't see as my grandmother would say of you.


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## bpsmith (13 Nov 2017)

YukonBoy said:


> No you chose to ignore the scenario because it did not fit your argument. I did not say there would or would not be a deal. I was stating the likely scenario if there is no deal. There is none so blind as those who don't see as my grandmother would say of you.


I believe I answered that element already too. Let’s not get wound up about a fair discussion.

Market forces will dictate. Either people will:

1. Carry on buying, at inflated prices.
2. Stop buying at all.
3. Buy an alternative from outside if the EU.

There are plenty of options out there already, that don’t come from Europe.

I undertand what you’re saying about IF there’s no deal. I am just stating that there is a snowflakes chance in hell that the Gov’ts of the remaining EU countries will allow the companies to suffer by not striking a fair deal. If they let that happen then the countries will be significantly worse off as a result of said companies going under.


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## PaulSB (14 Nov 2017)

bpsmith said:


> I undertand what you’re saying about IF there’s no deal. I am just stating that there is a snowflakes chance in hell that the Gov’ts of the remaining EU countries will allow the companies to suffer by not striking a fair deal. If they let that happen then the countries will be significantly worse off as a result of said companies going under.



If you’re right, I’m not arguing either way, it simply helps to prove these politicians are behaving irresponsibly as I believe are ours.

If a deal is necessary and needed it’s in everyone’s best interest to sit round a table and work one out in good time and orderly fashion. Should a deal not be deemed necessary let’s pack up now, leave and get on with other stuff.


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## bpsmith (14 Nov 2017)

PaulSB said:


> If you’re right, I’m not arguing either way, it simply helps to prove these politicians are behaving irresponsibly as I believe are ours.
> 
> If a deal is necessary and needed it’s in everyone’s best interest to sit round a table and work one out in good time and orderly fashion. Should a deal not be deemed necessary let’s pack up now, leave and get on with other stuff.


Nobody is right at this point, just varying view and opinions.

In simple terms, it does appear that way, however we are basing this opinion on what the media says. It gets very complicated at that point, as there are many forms of fake news used for many different reasons unfortunately.


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## buzzy-beans (15 Nov 2017)

[QUOTE 5041383, member: 9609"]It just seems crazy to me the amount of money being spent just to be seen in the latest model.[/QUOTE]

I totally agree!
And as for these idiots who take out crippling finance deals just so they can have the latest model and then at the end of their finance term, they don't even own the bloody thing, totally bloody bonkers!!


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## bpsmith (15 Nov 2017)

[QUOTE 5041383, member: 9609"]
It just seems crazy to me the amount of money being spent just to be seen in the latest model.[/QUOTE]

Fantastic comment.


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## screenman (15 Nov 2017)

But what to do with the money otherwise.


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## Ming the Merciless (15 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> But what to do with the money otherwise.



Buy another bike


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## screenman (15 Nov 2017)

YukonBoy said:


> Buy another bike



Not for me, I have enough already.


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## bpsmith (15 Nov 2017)

screenman said:


> Not for me, I have enough already.


Never enough!

Says the guy with two bikes, one of which I can’t ride presently. Doh!


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