# Stage 17 - spoiler



## Keith Oates (23 Jul 2008)

Today is the big one, or to be more accurate the big three as there are three tough climbs to get over. There will be no hiding for anyone today and it will be interesting to see how it develops. CSC will need to try again to distance themselves from Evans and Menchov but as seen yesterday that will not be easy unless one or both of them have a bad day. I think that Evans will do what he does best and that is cover the moves and try to keep from losing very much in the way of time. Could we see a resurgence from Valverde or will he continue to disappoint!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## rustychisel (23 Jul 2008)

Oh, I don't think Valverde disappoints. Sure, he had one relatively bad day, and he's lost some time, but he's finding out how hard it is to win the Tour rather than just swan around the peloton, or take the GC of the Vuelta. I know he's fallen out of the Tour before, but this time he's really finding out what it's about. Anyway, like you said, this one will be key. 

PS; lotta comments on the boards about how ugly Cadel is... have you had a gander at the fizzog on some of those Gerolsteiner blokes? They're all pink and rubbery looking, with bristles and sticky out teeth. Eeeech.


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## Keith Oates (23 Jul 2008)

I think that after the Dauphine people (including me) thought he might be a real challenger in the tour, so from that angle he is a little disappointing so far!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## MichaelM (23 Jul 2008)

At 12 o'clock toaday, I shall park my behind in front of he T.V. and won't be moving until the fat lady has sung.

I'd like to see Evans stay close enough to be able to take yellow in the TT.


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## kennykool (23 Jul 2008)

I'd like to see Evans strap on a pair and actually make his own move! He absolutely MUST win a stage before the time trial - in my opinion.

His team need to support him tho. Popovych left him yesterday - not sure what that was about???


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## biking_fox (23 Jul 2008)

Schumaker's off on the break, _again_ ! He's currently 22 down and if he can get it to stick a bit will put himself in good contention if he does another epic TT on Sat.

3 HC climbs to go though!


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## Flying_Monkey (23 Jul 2008)

I'd be very disappointed for the whole TdF to be won on a TT - I want to see some serious attacking riding in the mountains today. I still think Sastre could pull out a big stage... he has to really.


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## Keith Oates (23 Jul 2008)

I'd like to see that as well but I'm not sure we've seen anyone that looks like doing that so far this tour. Hey there is always hope though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Flying_Monkey (23 Jul 2008)

Well, still no clues yet as to how it will turn out - 4 minutes for the escape is not much and no-one from the peleton has tried to make a move... but with the two hardest climbs still to come...


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## Keith Oates (23 Jul 2008)

Big George had a crash but is getting back into the peleton, there are not the big gaps forming today so far. The big boys will be waiting for the L'Alpe and then it should all start to happen (maybe)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Flying_Monkey (23 Jul 2008)

Keith Oates said:


> I'd like to see that as well but I'm not sure we've seen anyone that looks like doing that so far this tour. Hey there is always hope though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Only Ricco / Piepoli - and we know now why they were able to escape so easily! Maybe it's because the artificial differences have been evened out a bit now...


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## Keith Oates (23 Jul 2008)

Rémy Di Gregorio has lost contact going downhill, what bike is he riding!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Keith Oates (23 Jul 2008)

Flying_Monkey said:


> Only Ricco / Piepoli - and we know now why they were able to escape so easily! Maybe it's because the artificial differences have been evened out a bit now...


Who!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Keith Oates (23 Jul 2008)

David Millar is wilting, not good news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Flying_Monkey (23 Jul 2008)

Keith Oates said:


> David Millar is wilting, not good news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



To be expected really - the only question is whether he has enough left to challenge in the TT.


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## Keith Oates (23 Jul 2008)

Two days of riding away, he could recover and put up a good show!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Flying_Monkey (23 Jul 2008)

It's all going to happen on the Alpe d'Huez it seems...


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## marinyork (23 Jul 2008)

Well at least Pineau and Velits are giving it a go. Hoping they do give it a real go, it was somewhat disappointing yesterday.


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## MrGrumpy (23 Jul 2008)

its kicking off now


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## marinyork (23 Jul 2008)

Yeah, glad Sastre and Menchov seem to have some energy left


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## yello (23 Jul 2008)

Menchov's energy was short lived!


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## yello (23 Jul 2008)

Wa-hoo! Schleck gets a break on Evans... but Evans hauls himself back.

Sastre going great guns out front.


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## Flying_Monkey (23 Jul 2008)

Sastre is staying ahead though - can my prediction not be the kiss of death for once?


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## MrGrumpy (23 Jul 2008)

evans needs to move his arse if he can, LA woud of killed this by now in his day.


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## Renard (23 Jul 2008)

*Allez Carlos*

Go Go Go!


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## groucho (23 Jul 2008)

No real chase from Evans!


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## marinyork (23 Jul 2008)

Geez the gap is still slowly going up. Keep it up!


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## marinyork (23 Jul 2008)

Evans at the front for once


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## Smeggers (23 Jul 2008)

looks like its down to the TT eh


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## MrGrumpy (23 Jul 2008)

looks like its squeeky bum time for Evans, don`t think he has the legs now.


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## yello (23 Jul 2008)

Evans is working to close the gap on Sastre but he's not getting anywhere.

Excellent ride from Sastre or superb tactics from CSC?


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## Flying_Monkey (23 Jul 2008)

Sastre has ridden magnificently - mind you, everyone was being quite cagey and saving it up for the last climb... but it looks like he will get a couple of minutes on everyone at least. He will have to get more to hold off Evans in the TT though... he's won! We must just wait and watch the clock now.


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## MrGrumpy (23 Jul 2008)

wtf happened to ITv4 ahhhhh


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## marinyork (23 Jul 2008)

2:15 taken out of Evans  to have 1:34 on him.


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## Chris James (23 Jul 2008)

Good ride by Sastre but you would expect him to take time out of Evans on the climbs.

Sastre is a climber who can time trial okay, Evans time trials well and can climb a bit too albeit he doesn't seem to have the acceleration to actually win mountain stages.


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## Chris James (23 Jul 2008)

marinyork said:


> 2:15 taken out of Evans  to have 1:34 on him.


I can't see that being anywhere near enough, unless Satsre has the ride of his life or Evans crashes.


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## Chuffy (23 Jul 2008)

CSC blew it....
That's not enough of a lead.


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## Renard (23 Jul 2008)

I don't know. Depends on how much inspiration Sastre can take into the final TT. How far is it anyway?

Twas a very exciting climb anyway!


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## Chuffy (23 Jul 2008)

I'm curious as to why it was Sastre and not Schleck who CSC launched. Were they using Schleck as a Trojan horse, knowing that the Leech would follow him and not Carlos? Some kind of 'this year it's Carlos, next year it's you' deal, hmmmm?


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## Flying_Monkey (23 Jul 2008)

Sastre is a far better climber on hills like this - I suppose they were hoping that Evans might try to follow and crack, thereby losing more time to both Sastre and Schleck. However Evans did what he needed to do. 1.34 is not enough - he would need at least 2.00 on the TT over Evans and probably more.


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## yello (23 Jul 2008)

I guess CSC figured that Evans would stick to yellow, so sent Sastre up the road to try and put some time into him. It really was win-win for CSC, clever riding. Evans has something else to consider.

He (Evans) has just been interviewed and was all smiles (he looked f*cked when he crossed the line though!). Says he did what he could, he knows he has the advantage over Sastre in the TT, so knows he's still in it. No headbutts or threats, just a tired looking rider with an honest appraisal of the day's events.


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## joshw (23 Jul 2008)

Andy Schleck looked way too comfortable...


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## Skip Madness (23 Jul 2008)

Here's a bit of a form guide over the past three years when Evans and Sastre have gone head-to-head in long time-trials in Grand Tours:

*2005 Tour de France: Stage 20 (55 km)*

Lance Armstrong - 1.11'46"
...
Cadel Evans +2'06"
...
Carlos Sastre +3'10"

Sastre loses to Evans by 1'04".
Sastre loses 1.16 seconds per kilometre to Evans.

*2006 Tour de France: Stage 7 (52 km)*

Serguei Gonchar - 1.01'43"
...
Cadel Evans +1'49"
...
Carlos Sastre +2'11"

Sastre loses to Evans by 22".
Sastre loses 0.42 seconds per kilometer.

*2006 Tour de France: Stage 19 (57 km)*

Serguei Gonchar - 1.07'45"
...
Cadel Evans +3'41"
...
Carlos Sastre +4'42"

Sastre loses to Evans by 1'01".
Sastre loses 1.07 seconds per kilometer to Evans.

*2007 Tour de France: Stage 13 (54 km)*

Alexandre Vinokourov - 1.06'34"
...
Cadel Evans +1'14"
...
Carlos Sastre +4'01"

Sastre loses to Evans by 2'47".
Sastre loses 3.10 seconds per kilometer to Evans.

*2007 Tour de France: Stage 19 (55.5 km)*

Levi Leipheimer - 1.02'44"
...
Cadel Evans +51"
...
Carlos Sastre +3'24"

Sastre loses to Evans by 2'33".
Sastre loses 2.76 seconds per kilometer to Evans.

*2007 Vuelta a España: Stage 8 (52.2 km)*

Bert Grabsch - 57'05"
...
Cadel Evans +2'20"
...
Carlos Sastre +4'03"

Sastre loses to Evans by 1'43".
Sastre loses 1.97 seconds per kilometer to Evans.

------------------------------

Sastre has 1'34" advantage going into the time-trial assuming nothing changes tomorrow or the day after. The stage 20 time-trial is 53 km. This means, by my reckoning, that to catch Sastre, Evans must make up 1.77 seconds per kilometer - any less and Sastre wins. As you can see, he managed that in all three of the time-trials last year over a similar distance. What is interesting is that he did not manage it in any of the time-trials in the two preceding years. It's going to be incredibly close.


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## MichaelM (23 Jul 2008)

Flying_Monkey said:


> I'd be very disappointed for the whole TdF to be won on a TT - I want to see some serious attacking riding in the mountains today. I still think Sastre could pull out a big stage... he has to really.




What numbers do you think I should pick for the midweek lottery?


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## yello (23 Jul 2008)

Flying_Monkey said:


> I'd be very disappointed for the whole TdF to be won on a TT.



In fairness to Evans (who's kinda implicated there!) it wouldn't be just the TTs that would have done it for him. Evan's has had to hang in there in the mountains too. Compare him with, say, Millar and you get my point.

I know it's almost fashionable to diss Evans (and I do it too!) but you have to give him the credit he deserves. He has stayed the distance and, for a TTer, he certainly embarrasses a number of supposed climbers! Its down to the more exciting climbers to put the time into Evans if they can't match him against the clock.


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## Chuffy (23 Jul 2008)

I don't think anyone would dismiss Evans' ability, he's obviously very, very good. It's his utter lack of flair, charm and _style_ that appalls. He's inherited the Tour almost by default and without really having to fight for it. Instead he's just kept grinding along while his rivals fail to put the boot in with any real venom. He's the Gordon Brown of pro-cycling.


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## roadiewill (23 Jul 2008)

wasnt too exciting today, expected schleck to attack and leave evans chasing but it didnt resally happen, despite attempts.


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## yello (23 Jul 2008)

Chuffy said:


> He's inherited the Tour almost by default and *without really having to fight for it.*



Not quite sure I'd agree there! He certainly wouldn't. They guy was absolutely shot after today! He may not be attacking but he is fighting.

I'm being a bit devil's advocate in that I know what people mean. He's not the most dynamic of characters, either on the bike or off of it, but he's playing by the rules. It's for others to beat him, can't blame him if they don't. 

Personally, I would like to see a.n. other win the tour but people know what they have to do for that to happen. Let's see how exciting _they_ are!


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## Chuffy (23 Jul 2008)

yello said:


> Not quite sure I'd agree there! He certainly wouldn't. They guy was absolutely shot after today! He may not be attacking but he is fighting.


<backpedals frantically>
Ok, so he's making a bit of an effort. But he hasn't _ever_ done anything bold or brave or dashing to try and claim the prize. If he attacked for the jersey, just once even, then I'd cut him more slack. But he never has. He just sits there, day after day, being a _little_ bit more consistent than the rest. 

....but apart from the aqueducts and the roads and the wine and the improved sanitation and the streets being safer, what have Cadel Evans the Romans ever done for us?


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## Keith Oates (24 Jul 2008)

Sastre defending the yellow jersey could make his TT effort just that more intense and allow him to get the win over Evans. However it should be very tight so two days to wait, unless something really unexpected happens in between!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Keith Oates (24 Jul 2008)

If Eveans does take yellow into Paris it will have been down to his own efforts, he was getting no help from anyone during the climb up L'Alpe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## rustychisel (24 Jul 2008)

I've never ever thought of Sastre as anything other than a 'Top 10' rider, certainly not a winner, but he was magnificent yesterday, and looked like he really REALLY wanted it.


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## stephenb (24 Jul 2008)

what happened to the Eurosport coverage last night? did it ever get screened after the kids' soccer game? gave up and went to bed


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## Graham O (24 Jul 2008)

Chuffy said:


> He's the Gordon Brown of pro-cycling.




My God, but you really know how to insult someone!


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## Smeggers (24 Jul 2008)

The schleck brothers was probably the most selfless pieice of riding ive seen.


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## kennykool (24 Jul 2008)

Fantastic riding by Sastre yesterday. Great tactics by CSC. Andy Schleck is an absolute star he'll be one for the furture.

I was gripped by yesterday's stage - best by far (Except when Cav was winning ha ha)

Someone said earlier that Andy Scheleck looked far too comfortable....what are you getting at???


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## Tetedelacourse (24 Jul 2008)

Interesting reading Skip Madness. Looks like Evans has improved his TT where Sastre hasn't.

One thing is guaranteed - Saturday will be very exciting indeed and that's 50% down to Evans. Not an exciting rider? Pah!

I didn't think Sastre would get the 2mins + that he did. Great stuff. And who said yesterday wasn't exciting?! You're not watching the same race as I am!


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## kennykool (24 Jul 2008)

Damn right TETE - yesterday was awsome.

My heart was actually pounding when those boys were climbing "the Alp"

In fact it gripped me so much that I am now planning a trip to Alpe d'huez to be a part of that - anyone know if it will be there in 2 years time? Cant do next year as i'm cycling London - Paris and arrive in paris the day before the Tour...woohoo!!!!!!


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## MichaelM (24 Jul 2008)

kennykool said:


> Damn right TETE - yesterday was awsome.
> 
> My heart was actually pounding when those boys were climbing "the Alp"



I sat and watched all of that yeterday, it would have been a good climax but.....

Sastre crossed the line.
The clock got to about 7 seconds.
Camera panned to Sanchez (I think).
And then.......




My SkyBox informed me that there was a technical fault with this channel. Had to perform a "master reset" (switch off and on), By the time the box had "searched for channels" and come back on the clock was at 3'30" and the commentators were saying it was still close.

Grrr!


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## kennykool (24 Jul 2008)

Oh dear thats not good.....had you watched the whole 6 Hours?


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## Tetedelacourse (24 Jul 2008)

My BT Vbox doo-daa did same but came back up after about 30 seconds. Just enough time to kick the dog.


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