# Will Cav leave Sky?



## Flying_Monkey (22 Jul 2012)

Lots of speculation has erupted since the end of the Tour (and yes, I know that was only a few hours ago) that Mark Cavendish is rather unhappy with how the Tour was for him, and given that this will not change in the coming years, he will probably not be with Sky next season.

What do people reckon? And, if he did leave, where would he (and Eisel, naturally) go?

I can see a team like Orica GreenEdge hiring him because Goss really hasn't worked out as a reliable sprinter, or perhaps a new team or an old team that is looking to rebuild in a new way...


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## raindog (22 Jul 2012)

no


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## Flying_Monkey (22 Jul 2012)

No, he won't leave? Or no, he wouldn't go to Orica?


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## Buddfox (23 Jul 2012)

I found it surprising that this was almost the first thing Brailsford spoke about after the dust had started to settle on today's successes. It might have been a tactic to divert attention away from Froome? And he wasn't saying that Mark will leave, just that he'd understand it if he did. If Sky's ambitions are to win GC year in year out, then they don't need Cav. Maybe they cut Cav and use the salary saving to pay Froome? If you had both Froome and Wiggo, and a strong supporting cast, that allows you to decide each year, based on Tour profile, who to favour for GC. For all the reasons people were surprised Cav joiend Sky in the first place, it makes sense - and now he doesn't need the money so much either.


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## Mr Haematocrit (23 Jul 2012)

has cav actually stated that he unhappy?
I thought the goal for cav was the olympics this year. On eurosport they stated that he only had one sprint targeted for the tour (the final sprint) and he did better than that. Sure cav want's to win but I would have thought he would be aware of Skys goals before signing.


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## Buddfox (23 Jul 2012)

Brailsford quoted directly, I believe, in an article on the BBC, so it feels a bit more than press speculation, but I may be wrong. The fact of the matter is, it makes sense. He wants 34 stage wins, it's a lot harder to do that at Sky than it would be elsewhere, for as long as they have Wiggo and Froome. If Froome leaves, I think it's more likely he stays because Wiggo won't be a GC contended year in year out, I don't think.


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## Chuffy (23 Jul 2012)

He's just won three stages, including the Champs. Is that really so terrible? If you're relying on what Brian Holm said....pfffft, he wants Cav for his team, he's not going to say nice things about the Sky/Cav setup.

Sky threw everything at a Wiggy win in this Tour. I reckon that with hindsight they could probably give Cav some more support and still sustain a GC attempt.


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## Flying_Monkey (23 Jul 2012)

V for Vengedetta said:


> I thought the goal for cav was the olympics this year.


 
Absolutely. I merely report what the speculation is.


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## Buddfox (23 Jul 2012)

Chuffy said:


> He's just won three stages, including the Champs. Is that really so terrible? If you're relying on what Brian Holm said....pfffft, he wants Cav for his team, he's not going to say nice things about the Sky/Cav setup.
> 
> Sky threw everything at a Wiggy win in this Tour. I reckon that with hindsight they could probably give Cav some more support and still sustain a GC attempt.


 
When you've averaged 5 a year for the previous 3 years, and you've been described as the greatest sprinter the Tour has ever seen, and you're deeply ambitious, maybe it is (so terrible)?


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## Mr Haematocrit (23 Jul 2012)

Im more curious if wiggo will sacrifice his own goals in the time trial to help cav win the road race, i think this will decide the relationship as much as anything


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## Noodley (23 Jul 2012)

I wonder what Lorraine Kelly's show will make of it all...


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## Chuffy (23 Jul 2012)

V for Vengedetta said:


> Im more curious if wiggo will sacrifice his own goals in the time trial to help cav win the road race, i think this will decide the relationship as much as anything


I think he will. Team GB seem to have a very single-minded focus on long term goals. They've got the TdF won, now everything shifts to Cav for the road race. The individual TT has barely been mentioned.


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## Chuffy (23 Jul 2012)

This is all getting a bit football, isn't it?


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## Mad Doug Biker (23 Jul 2012)

I thought Cav had said right at the outset that he wasn't going to go for the Green Jersey again this year because he had a new baby and all?

For someone who wasn't going to do much, he hasn't done too badly.


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## lukesdad (23 Jul 2012)

V for Vengedetta said:


> Im more curious if wiggo will sacrifice his own goals in the time trial to help cav win the road race, i think this will decide the relationship as much as anything


This . You. Could also say the same for Froome. They won't and he'll leave . Green edge would seem to be the obvious choice.


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## raindog (23 Jul 2012)

in his blog at the Grauniad Brad says..........
"It's going to be another tough race but a very realistic chance of gold. So physically, you'd think not a lot's going to change in nine days. If anything, I'm going to be fresher. And once you start thinking in those terms, that you're so fit and you've trained for the demands of the three weeks and you've actually got three days off in between the road race and the time trial, it shouldn't be a problem."
so it looks as if he thinks he can go for TT gold and still help Cav


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## Berties (23 Jul 2012)

Let time see what happens to the sky team,read all the negative dog toffee that the French and English media have written in the media the team would be dead in the water ,I should like to think it would go from strength to strength


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## smutchin (23 Jul 2012)

Buddfox said:


> Brailsford quoted directly, I believe, in an article on the BBC, so it feels a bit more than press speculation, but I may be wrong.



Did he come out with it as an entirely unprompted off-the-cuff comment or was it in response to a question posed by a hack with column inches to fill?

The answer to that question might give us a clue as to how seriously we should treat the story. 

d.


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## dellzeqq (23 Jul 2012)

I was surprised that he went to Sky.

Cav's got all the money he could ever spend - what he's after is history. Green jerseys and stage wins beckon, but time's winged chariot hurries near, and Sagan may be the coming thing (if he sticks around). Cav will want to maximise his 'take' for every TdF that he enters.

Being part of the Sky may or may not have cost him the green jersey and a couple of stage wins. I think he didn't quite realise that the team would be built around Wiggins - indeed Peta Todd said that sometimes you think you know something, but it doesn't quite sink in until it happens. However...it's doubtful that he'd have found the same level of expertise on tap that was available at Sky.

A lot of teams are going to have to up their game. Jens Voigt's '10%' will have stung some of the team sponsors. If a team comes along and says 'we'll build the team around you, and we're going to prepare with the same meticulous care that Sky employed he'd be crazy not to move. But........that's a big if.


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## yello (23 Jul 2012)

It's the question I dared not ask (though have alluded to). It doesn't surprise me there is speculation. And I'm afraid mine is going to a long response, because there's a few facets to consider, so hang in there....

I was a defender of the Sky stated tactics re Cavendish before the tour (still am) but even I was still a little surprised at how much effort was put behind the yellow jersey. Sky made sure of their goal. I did wonder how much of Cavendish's goal of Olympic gold actually suited Brailsford's Sky goal (but that's the sort of question you can never answer). It's possible that Cavendish thought/was told he could have more support in 2013. With the rise of Froome, how does that now play into Sky's thinking? And how will Cavendish respond to that?

Then I think of what Cavendish might want. I felt really excited that he might remodel himself into a classics rider (and he seemed to hint at that), and I thought Sky was the place for him to do that. He'd still be a green jersey contender but of a different sort, and one that could get by with less support (like Sagan). That'd suit Sky and Cavendish.

Above all else, let's not forget that Cavendish has had a good year by most standards. Ok, some might not feel that way because he wasn't all conquering at the TdF but he's notched up good wins none-the-less.

I've always thought this would be a transition year for him but I don't know. So much now depends on what he wants for next year and I really do think Sky have got a balancing act to perform. And let's not forget EBH - he's had to make sacrifices too this tour. It's probable he aspires to more than the 'super domestique' role.

Yep, it's going to be an interesting meeting at the end of the season for Sky as they set 2013 targets. They've had a great year, succeeded in their objective and come away with plaudits. At the price maybe of some of the team feeling a little neglected and unfulfilled personally. We'll see changes in the line-up, that's a given, but as to who they'll be depends so much on what those individuals want. And that we just can't know. It grieves me to say it but I think they'd let EBH go.


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## smutchin (23 Jul 2012)

Even with the Sky team set up as it was, Cav could have gone for the green jersey this year but he would have had to push himself much harder than he did to have a chance, and that would have compromised his fitness for the Olympics. As he said himself, one of the reasons he won Friday's stage so convincingly was that he'd taken it relatively easy on the rest of the race, not even attempting to contest some stages that he would normally have gone for. 

Plus he had a bit of bad luck with crashes hampering his chances on stages he could have won. 

In the circumstances, three stages is a pretty decent return, especially when one of those three is the Champs-Élysées and he got led out by the yellow jersey. 

d.


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## Saddle bum (23 Jul 2012)

Remember the words of Brian Robinson in his book, "Are you a pro bike rider to make money or win races, there is a difference".

But there again BR was/is a Yorkshireman!


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## jdtate101 (23 Jul 2012)

I really think Cav's goal this yr was (and still is) the Olympics. If you read his book, he was the only cyclist on the GB team NOT to win a medal in China last time round, and that REALLY burns him up. If he had to sacrifice a few stage wins to get that gold, so be it. He's made so much history in 2012 (world champ, 4 wins in Paris, only World Champ to win in Paris, All time sprint record) it's not been a bad year for him AT ALL. I think he's pragmatic enough to see SKY's a good place for him, but I do think if sky has a really strong GC contender like Froome next time around who can more or less win it on their own, that they can also build in a small core for Cav on the flat stages. The fact that SKY is a UK based team and he has a young family probably will be the prime factor in his thinking. Whatever he decides to do, we will be sure to see more of him going across that line first....


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## Boris Bajic (23 Jul 2012)

Cav will go to Man City, with Tevez coming the other way.

Adebayor will become Nicolas Anelka. He'll just wake up one day and be him.

Tom Daley will go to CFC as a direct replacement for Drogba. Drogba will become President of Ivory Coast.

Wiggins will leave Sky, start the Style Council and then move on to do some solo projects.

Voeckler will retire from bicycling to play Mork in a CanalPlus French-language remake of the 70s TV hit.

David Millar will start a Talking Heads tribute band. They will become bigger than the original band. David Byrne will start to dress and have his hair cut like Millar.

All of the above is true. Only a troll would doubt it.


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## smutchin (23 Jul 2012)

Just remembered another important factor - namely that Sky lost one of their key climbing domestiques very early. This is bound to have affected the way they approached the race. Using riders like EBH and Rogers to chase down breaks would have been both risky and might have compromised their ability to do the longer shifts required of them in the mountains.

d.


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## Flying_Monkey (23 Jul 2012)

Well, Brian Holm is clearly saying that he wants Cav at Omega Pharma-Quickstep and you know, I think I would much prefer it if he was at a team built around him. I'd much prefer to see top British riders in lots of different teams, as well as a British team that can win GTs and Classics. There are (and will continue to be) more than enough talented British riders coming through...


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## swansonj (23 Jul 2012)

Formula 1 has sometimes gone down the route of manufacturers setting up thinly disguised "second teams". Suppose Sky set up a team, called something else but still with Sky's money and organisational resources behind it, and ran one team to chase GC based round Wiggins/Froome and the other to chase sprint wins based round Cav. How long would it take for ASO to grant them an invitation? Or could Sky buy out an existing team for the same purpose? (Those are genuinely open questions, I freely admit I don't know enough to know the answers myself).

Or if Cav joins another team, and Sky stick with chasing GC and don't run a serious sprint contender, would you expect Wiggins/Froome still to help set up a few sprints for Cav for old times' sake?


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## smutchin (23 Jul 2012)

Brian Holm is stirring up a story out of nothing, but even though I'd like Cav to stay at Sky, I can see the appeal of trying to create HTC MkII at OPQS and it certainly wouldn't harm Cav's chances of winning more green jerseys.

Not sure Gerald Ciolek would welcome him with open arms though. 

d.


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## Flying_Monkey (23 Jul 2012)

smutchin said:


> Not sure Gerald Ciolek would welcome him with open arms though.


 
Ciolek is a second-rate sprinter anyway.


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## smutchin (23 Jul 2012)

Oh, but if only he hadn't been forced to be Cav's slave, he could have won so many more stages himself!


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## rich p (23 Jul 2012)

smutchin said:


> Oh, but if only he hadn't been forced to be Cav's slave, he could have won so many more stages himself!


 c.f. Renshaw, Chichi, Goss - none of whom have complained AFAIK but have moved on to further their ambitions with a singular lack of success.
How about replacing Siutsou (who it could be deemed to have been un-needed ultimately) with Renshaw. Eisel and Renshaw to assist Cav should be enough with the way Cav is going!


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## dellzeqq (23 Jul 2012)

I think Yello makes a very good point about EBH. I don't know whether he sees himself as a having GC podium potential, but, if he does, then the time to move is now. 

The concentration on the TdF (and the concomitant downgrading of the Vuelta and Giro) makes keeping good teams together more difficult. Suppose Brailsford says 'ok, Edvard, I think you can win the Giro next year - so we'll get you ready for that, and you can have a string of not-quite TdF riders to help you'. Or, having crunched some numbers when the 2013 TdF route is published he says 'Chris - we want you to win the Vuelta - we're backing EBH and Cav for the Tour next year'.


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## tigger (23 Jul 2012)

Well the short aswer is nobody knows. The Brailsford comment has been spun way out of context, he merely stated IF Cav wanted to move away he'd understand and would not stand in his way - perfectly fair and sensible. My opinion is that Cav knew exactly what he was signing into and whilst the reality hit home in the early stages, the tour ended in an amazing high for him and he will still be there at least next year. But thats all it is, an opinion from an outsider.

There is no question that a sprinter's ambition will be compromised in a team with serious GC goals. BUT he still won 3 stages, could have contended two more if it weren't for crashes. He got 3 rather than 5 due to his own misfortune, not team compromise, and unless: a) Sagan's a cheat b) he is a flash in the pan or c) they change the points competition / sprint parcours dramatically - Cav won't be winning Green for some time I think. I'd also add that Sky only had 8 men for the majority of this tour, and comfortably won, so they may feel they can dedicate an extra man to Cav next year. They may also feel they can afford to help chase breakaways down more as their confidence grows. Sky wlll raise their ambitions and want multiple yellows as Brailsford has stated. He also said he wants this to be regarded as the greatest team ever. What better way to make this statement than to win on more than one front?

This is an amazing team and Cav will still want to be there next year I think


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## PpPete (23 Jul 2012)

tigger said:


> Well the short aswer is nobody knows. The Brailsford comment has been spun way out of context, he merely stated IF Cav wanted to move away he'd understand and would not stand in his way - perfectly fair and sensible. My opinion is that Cav knew exactly what he was signing into and whilst the reality hit home in the early stages, the tour ended in an amazing high for him and he will still be there at least next year. But thats all it is, an opinion from an outsider.
> 
> There is no question that a sprinter's ambition will be compromised in a team with serious GC goals. BUT he still won 3 stages, could have contended two more if it weren't for crashes. He got 3 rather than 5 due to his own misfortune, not team compromise, and unless: a) Sagan's a cheat b) he is a flash in the pan or c) they change the points competition / sprint parcours dramatically - Cav won't be winning Green for some time I think. I'd also add that Sky only had 8 men for the majority of this tour, and comfortably won, so they may feel they can dedicate an extra man to Cav next year. They may also feel they can afford to help chase breakaways down more as their confidence grows. Sky wlll raise their ambitions and want multiple yellows as Brailsford has stated. He also said he wants this to be regarded as the greatest team ever. What better way to make this statement than to win on more than one front?
> 
> This is an amazing team and Cav will still want to be there next year I think


 
I'm inclined to agree with the above.... but also with DZ regarding EBH, a rider who has very definitely "paid his dues" as a incredibly hard working domestique and really ought to be given a chance at glory for himself. Whether he has the wherewithal to be a GC serious contender or if he might go for a green jersey, inside or outside SKY remains to be seen.


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## tigger (23 Jul 2012)

V for Vengedetta said:


> Im more curious if wiggo will sacrifice his own goals in the time trial to help cav win the road race, i think this will decide the relationship as much as anything


 
I was lucky enough to see the Paris finish and the TT on Saturday too. Wiggo looked so strong that I think he will commit 100% to the road race and still win the TT. He committed on Friday to Cav despite the most crucial TT of his life the next day. Wiggo was simply amazing on the Rue de Rovoli and onto the Place de la Concorde. He pulled for at least 700 metres and left everyone in his wake. Cav had already won the stage when Wiggo peeled off.

It was simply the most amazing sporting spectacle have ever seen - astonishing!


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## smutchin (23 Jul 2012)

Wow... would have loved to be there to see Wiggo going at full gas under the flamme rouge... you could see by the looks on the faces of the other teams' leadout men that they were in danger of giving themselves a heart attack trying to keep up with him.

Tony Martin used to do a similar job for Cav at HTC and presumably would do the same at OPQS, but is he as quick over a kilometre as Brad?

d.


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## Strathlubnaig (23 Jul 2012)

It's all speculation, need to wait and see how things look after next week. As for the TdF, I think I heard next years will be more mountainous or at least more summit finishes, so if sky are looking to make it 2 in a row then there will likely be less help for Cavendish than this year.
I punt on a move to OPQ or Greenedge might not be a bad idea.


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## lukesdad (23 Jul 2012)

I d like to see the G man leave sky .


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## trj977 (23 Jul 2012)

Boris Bajic said:


> Cav will go to Man City, with Tevez coming the other way.
> 
> Adebayor will become Nicolas Anelka. He'll just wake up one day and be him.
> 
> ...


 
 Post of the day


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## Nearly there (23 Jul 2012)

Considering sky weren't after the green to win 3 stages Is still really good and to think he crashed out on one which he could have maybe went on to win so that would of been 4,then there was the one after the crash when He was edged out by Griepel so thats another one he maybe could've won so that would of been 5,Then the other flat stage when he got held up by that big crash and lost time on the group,so potentially he maybe could've ended up with 6 wins not bad eh?I know he didnt get the green but he still managed to equal stage wins with 2 riders who where there for the green and Goss didn't even get a look in.
Like many have said and even Cav himself Sky were after yellow for brad and the olympics for him,maybe next year sky will drop knees and siutsou and take Thomas and Swift for cav giving a chance at both jerseys.


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## 172traindriver (23 Jul 2012)

I reckon he should get himself a move out after the olympics. The man is a winner and whilst he is a team player he must be frustrated.
When the stated goal of Sky is the GC, the resources have to be diluted accordingly which means Cav's share is pretty small. He would be better getting off to one of the teams that don't harbour GC aspirations and could devote the majority of the team to him and his goals like the old HTC days.
I would love to see him get the record of stage wins in the TDF, but if his victory count starts to diminish, don't forget each at edition of the TDF he is one year older and the new kids on the block are lining up behind him.


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## Monsieur Remings (23 Jul 2012)

Chuffy said:


> He's just won three stages, including the Champs. Is that really so terrible? If you're relying on what Brian Holm said....pfffft, he wants Cav for his team, he's not going to say nice things about the Sky/Cav setup.
> 
> *Sky threw everything at a Wiggy win in this Tour. I reckon that with hindsight they could probably give Cav some more support and still sustain a GC attempt.*


 

Blimey fella, you've changed your tune a bit from the TDF thread. But ain't that just the tour eh?

I, too, think he should move on and as far as his own agenda regarding stage wins SKY wasn't the right move, however explicit or not they may have made it out to him.


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## Chuffy (23 Jul 2012)

Monsieur Remings said:


> Blimey fella, you've changed your tune a bit from the TDF thread. But ain't that just the tour eh?
> 
> I, too, think he should move on and as far as his own agenda regarding stage wins SKY wasn't the right move, however explicit or not they may have made it out to him.


Look up 'hindsight' in the dictionary. I'm also talking about future Tours/GTs. Nothing inconsistent about anything I've posted on the subject. 

With the experience of this Tour behind them they could probably give Cav an extra leadout man and put a bit more effort into chasing breaks without compromising a GC attempt. They might still struggle to get green but it looks like he's after stages.


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## Monsieur Remings (23 Jul 2012)

Chuffy said:


> *Look up 'hindsight' in the dictionary.* I'm also talking about future Tours/GTs. Nothing inconsistent about anything I've posted on the subject.
> 
> With the experience of this Tour behind them they could probably give Cav an extra leadout man and put a bit more effort into chasing breaks without compromising a GC attempt. They might still struggle to get green but it looks like he's after stages.


 
There you go...

*fore·sight*​​​(fôr




s



t



, f



r



-)​_n._​*1. *Perception of the significance and nature of events before they have occurred.​*2. *Care in providing for the future; prudence. See Synonyms at prudence.​*3. *The act of looking forward.​​


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## Chuffy (23 Jul 2012)

Monsieur Remings said:


> There you go...
> 
> *fore·sight*​​​(fôr
> 
> ...


No, you don't get it. Never mind.


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## NotthatJasonKenny (24 Jul 2012)

Boris Bajic said:


> Voeckler will retire from bicycling to play Mork in a CanalPlus French-language remake of the 70s TV hit.



I thought it was just me that thought he looked like a young Robin Williams!

I'm new to the sport but wasn't there something last year about the course having been virtually designed for Cav to win the green jersey?

I think this year for Cav was about the Olympics, the tour was almost a warm up. After the Olympics I'm betting he will look at his options and if a team came to him with credible ambitions to build a team around him he will go for it. It will have to be credible because it looks like Sky have the set up to dominate with Wiggo and Froome alternating wins.

Then again I know very little about it.


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## johnr (24 Jul 2012)

This appeared in velonews about Chris Froome and his future

http://velonews.competitor.com/2012/07/news/whats-next-for-chris-froome_230893

It sums up the cash and possible tactical options of various teams which I think are also relevant to Cav.

I think there's a couple of other things to be considered too:

will the ASO and the UCI try messing with courses/rules
has the international pharmaceutical community got a contribution to make to the less scrupulous (Horner seems to be getting his retaliation in first with his 'fans are trying to dope us' quote) 
SKY seem to have rewritten the book on team structure and preparation. Unless there's a lot of cash or guarantees of new structures on a different team, it's not clear to me that any of the SKY heroes would automatically gain a lot elsewhere.


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## raindog (24 Jul 2012)

Cav is paid 2.5 million I think? Is there another team willing to equal that?


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## perplexed (24 Jul 2012)

With Cav on board, pretty much any team will be able to increase the worth of the sponsorship slots on the jersey, so their budget will increase anyway I'd have thought.


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## Chuffy (24 Jul 2012)

perplexed said:


> With Cav on board, pretty much any team will be able to increase the worth of the sponsorship slots on the jersey, so their budget will increase anyway I'd have thought.


Is this the same Cav who rode for HTC who folded because they couldn't find a new sponsor? I'm not sure it's as simple as 'we want to buy Cav, give us more ££'.


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## rich p (24 Jul 2012)

Chuffy said:


> Is this the same Cav who rode for HTC who folded because they couldn't find a new sponsor? I'm not sure it's as simple as 'we want to buy Cav, give us more ££'.


 Although, to be scrupulously fair, there were rumours at the time that the sponsors wouldn't come on board because Cav was almost certainly going to Sky.


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## Chuffy (24 Jul 2012)

rich p said:


> Although, to be scrupulously fair, there were rumours at the time that the sponsors wouldn't come on board because Cav was almost certainly going to Sky.


True, although had they found a new sponsor they'd have been able to keep the team together and Cav might have stayed. Chicken and egg really.


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## Cheddar George (24 Jul 2012)

"While I understand transfer rumors are fun in sports, cycling is built on fragile foundation of sponsorship $$$. rumors kill sponsorship" Jonathan Vaughters

I think there is going to be some serious reevaluation at a number of teams concerning GC or stage win ambitions, offers will be made to Cav but i think it will depend more on what quality of team they are prepared to build for him. I think SKY was the right decision at the time but long term i would hope that he can get a team built around the astounding talent that he has.


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## smutchin (24 Jul 2012)

lukesdad said:


> I d like to see the G man leave sky .


 
Interesting! Why do you say that?

As a fully paid-up member of the Geraint Thomas fan club, I would love to see him being pushed as a GC contender with the full weight of the team behind him - I reckon he's potentially better than Wiggins or Froome (he seems to me to have more of a leader's temperament than Froome). If Sky won't do that for him, then maybe he should move, but I thought they were grooming him for a future leadership role.

d.


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## johnr (24 Jul 2012)

If Nibali leaves Liquigas, could they become a 'green jersey team' backing Sagan for TdF purposes? Surely any team looking at looking at headhunting one of the SKY midfield, would face demands for a complete and expensive restructuring. I think they'd be better off going after the backroom staff in the first instance.


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## smutchin (24 Jul 2012)

johnr said:


> I think they'd be better off going after the backroom staff in the first instance.



This is a very good point. I read something the other day that suggested Sky have spent more money overall than other teams but proportionally much less on rider salaries than the likes of BMC and OPQS, ie most of the money is spent on infrastructure and coaching. I think BMC blew most of their 2012 budget on Phil Gilbert. 

Anyway, is there even going to be a Liquigas (or whatever) team next year? I understood they were having trouble finding a new sponsor à la HTC. (Can't remember where I read that though - may well just be idle speculation.)

d.


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## monnet (24 Jul 2012)

I might as well add my tuppence. 

Like Dellzeq, I was surprised he went to Sky in the first place. But it's started to make sense recently.

Cav rides for Sky, he accepted that this year he wouldn't get the support he was used to for the Tour BUT if anything went wrong on the GC, he'd get helped out and a couple of stages (notably the final) would be earmarked for him. He took the offer of a couple fewer stages with the carrot of a dedicated team for the Olympics. I know the Olympics is 'Team GB' etc. but Sky and British Cycling are one and the same, so he'd get a full support from his salary men. So, at the end of the season he gets a couple more Tour stages and the Olympic RR title - which will go nicely with his World's title. Lovely, and all this contributes to his place in the record books. 

The next bit is the bit I don't think anyone really considered (Cav or the Sky management). After you've promised him a once in a lifetime achievement to soften the blow of not dedicating your Tour effort for him in season 1, what do you offer in season 2? It seems there's not a lot. Cav's hopes are then on the variables of Wiggins not defending his title and a less dedicated effort being put around Froome (which seems unlikely for many reasons). 

So, as a rider who wants to win I don't see he has much choice. Why, in the peak of his career, would he stay at a team that won't offer him full support? He wants wins and he wants his name in the history books - this season has promoted those aims, another season with Sky seems unlikely to. So who to? In my opinion, it is OPQS. Brian Holm is there, they always got on (unlike with Brailsford and other HTC backroom staff went as well), there's no real rival sprinter. The likes of Martin are already there to pick up where they left off at HTC. In addition Cav will be looking for more classics wins (it's that place in history), OPQS know how to win classics and Mr Boonen is as good a person as any to teach him the ropes. 

But, I said he'd never go to Sky, so what do I know? Perhaps he won't leave either.


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## Willo (24 Jul 2012)

Not read the whole thread, but for me it made sense for him to be in the Sky fold in Olympic Year so the programme/training was fully aligned etc. to give him the best chance in the road race (and as we know, that equally suits Brailsford/Sutton who like to have the GB riders in their view throughout the year so to speak). Rob Hayles was pushed on the question during Eurosport's coverage of the TT and, while I can't remember his exact words, he did say that personally he felt he would have to move on to do what he likes best - focusing on stage wins with a team set up to support that. Given Hayles' friendship / role with Cavendish that was quite telling I thought. Of course, my Olympic year theory doesn't account for a 3 year contract unless we're moving into an era of 'transfer' style moves a la Wiggins from Garmin.

As has been said, to move there also has to be an attractive proposition in terms of a team assembled for him.


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## StuAff (24 Jul 2012)

My take:
Dave Brailsford and Shane Sutton have already stated that Sky have broad ambitions for the future. They want to retain the TdF yellow next year, but they also want to go for the slam of all three grand tours and do much better in the spring classics. You can't do that with one nine-man squad, no matter how good, how versatile, that team is, no more than eleven men alone could achieve a league/cup/CL treble (for example). Contador was the last _man_ to win two out of three in the same year (Giro & Vuelta in 2008) but whether he was clean or not.... To do it really, undisputably clean, you need strength in depth, and expertise in depth. The first two seasons were a painful learning curve at times for them (who knows how Wiggo might have done in last year's Tour had he not broken his collarbone), but the masterplan has clearly been working very nicely indeed- from the lower two spots on the podium at the Vuelta to the top two at the Tour.

Cav's focus this year has been on the Olympics, and his training, his season to date and the way he handled certain stages on the Tour, have all been with Saturday in mind. The stages he won in the last three weeks were obviously important, but a secondary concern (for this season only!). Sagan has already been compared to Eddy M in terms of all-round ability (or at least potential), and he's definitely a major threat to future green jersey ambitions, but Cav has already shown he's become a more rounded and stronger overall rider than previous years. He nearly won the points competition on the Giro, had a couple of minor wins, and he certainly wasn't afraid of working for the team on the Tour. Yes, I have no doubt that OPQS, GreenEdge et al would love to add him to their rosters, perhaps they can offer him certain advantages (Garmin and QPQS strike me as the best bets if he wanted to become a Classics challenger, for example), but can any other team offer him what Sky can in terms of the complete package? I find it hard to believe that had it not been an Olympic year (or if the road race had been more helpfully scheduled) that Sky would not have targeted green as well as yellow. The leadout train seemed to do the trick on the occasions where it was deployed.

Same applies to Chris, Edvald, Geraint....if they jump ship, it might work out very well, but they could end up being the big fish in a small, stagnant pond. Sky might be aiming for domination as total as Schumacher and Ferrari's in F1 was for the best part of a decade, but there's a big difference- Schumi's team mates generally got the second step on the podium, time after time. In pro racing there's rather more opportunity to spread the top step around a bit. If if anyone can keep that much talent happy, it's Dave Brailsford.


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## rich p (24 Jul 2012)

I've just liked two opposing threads, both of which seemed to make perfect sense. My vote is to sit on the fence then!


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## Keith Oates (25 Jul 2012)

The fact that Cav will leave Sky is not really in question, it should be When will Cav leave Sky!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## PpPete (25 Jul 2012)

If Brailsford is after Sky being the dominant force for the next few years he should surely be thinking of Classics wins as well as GTs ? It might take him a couple of years to learn how to do it, but if Cav is after similar goals after the Olympics it would surely make sense to stay with what looks to be one of the most professional outfits on the road today?


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## Saddle bum (25 Jul 2012)

With Sagen popping up, Cav's prospects of another GJ have taken a knock. He would be better off considering a fairly certain three/four stage wins in the TdF with Sky on selected stages.


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## dellzeqq (25 Jul 2012)

johnr said:


> This appeared in velonews about Chris Froome and his future
> 
> http://velonews.competitor.com/2012/07/news/whats-next-for-chris-froome_230893
> 
> ...


that's a well-thought through piece of work


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## Basil.B (26 Jul 2012)

*Read this earlier today -*
*Mark Cavendish is “almost certain” to leave Team Sky at the end of this season, according to cycling journalist and author Richard Moore who has close ties to the British ProTeam.*


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## Mr Haematocrit (26 Jul 2012)

Hope he ends up riding Specialized again.


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## tigger (26 Jul 2012)

A work colleague of mine met with one of the Marketing bosses at Quickstep today. He said that OPQ are definitely pitching for Cav at the moment and are hopeful.

You can ignore my opinion from 2 days ago! He's going. Thinking about it, OPQ makes the most sense. Boonen for the Classics and Cav for the Grand Tour sprints. Makes perfect sense and the team is already well set up to support an out and out sprinter. Oh and he can ride a Specialized bike again.


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## StuAff (26 Jul 2012)

dellzeqq said:


> that's a well-thought through piece of work


+1. See also http://roadcyclinguk.com/blogs/gues...on-why-wiggins-victory-is-a-game-changer.html. Argues, quite convincingly IMHO, that Sky are perfectly capable of going for yellow and green next year.
Richard Moore may have an inside line, but I doubt that it's all cut-and-dried just yet.

I think the bike choice thing is overrated. Cav has seemed perfectly happy with the Dogma 2 (his, as with other bikes he's ridden, are custom geometry anyway), and the Addict when HTC ran Scotts. As long as he wins on it, it's a good bike....


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## tigger (26 Jul 2012)

Yeah that roadcycling article was pretty much my take on it 2 days ago. How fickle!


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## StuAff (26 Jul 2012)

So: It would be perfectly sensible of him to leave. It would be perfectly sensible to stay. No-one actually knows what will happen yet, and even if they did, the only way to know whether it is the right call for Cav and Sky is results in races that haven't happened yet.


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## Mr Haematocrit (26 Jul 2012)

StuAff not all Cavendish bikes have been custom geometry I can't comment regarding them all, but his Venge's most certainly were not.

The Mclaren Venge Cav rode had the same geometry as the production model Venges, including the S-Works. (note : mclaren has higher grade carbon and better layup)
The major differences was his signature stem and pro bars and the BB30 was modified for a 24mm Shimano/SRM setup as you could not get this in BB30 configuration at the time.
Cav rode a 52 venge with standard geometry.
I can provide specifics if your interested including weights etc.


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## StuAff (27 Jul 2012)

V for Vengedetta said:


> StuAff not all Cavendish bikes have been custom geometry I can't comment regarding them all, but his Venge's most certainly were not.
> 
> The Mclaren Venge Cav rode had the same geometry as the production model Venges, including the S-Works. (note : mclaren has higher grade carbon and better layup)
> The major differences was his signature stem and pro bars and the BB30 was modified for a 24mm Shimano/SRM setup as you could not get this in BB30 configuration at the time.
> ...


Fair enough- I know his Dogma 2 frames are custom (Sky said so), the Addicts were as well...


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## Hector (27 Jul 2012)

I reckon he will. I don't see where Cav fits into the Sky team apart from being a British rider.

I think Cav was looking at the other Brits in the Sky team and thinking ahead to the Olympics when he joined. After all I should imagine that it would be massive benefit to train with the other guys in the Sky team who (apart from Miller) will make up the British team as well.

I reckon he'll get his gold and be off trying to eat into the Cannibal's all time stage wins on the Tour, rather then being a domestique in a team which appears only goes for GC.

And good luck to him.


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## Mr Haematocrit (27 Jul 2012)

StuAff said:


> Fair enough- I know his Dogma 2 frames are custom (Sky said so), the Addicts were as well...


 
Wow your totally correct regarding Cav's Dogma. I never knew that and have been reading up on it. Imho its not a great advert for the standard Dogma bike as it kind of suggests that it has flaws, we know that all bikes are flawed in some way but perception of your customer base matters. What is equally interesting is that Cav's Dogma seems to be a 50 but have very similar geometry to the Venge.
I wonder how Cav would go on a production Dogma with standard geometry.

I'm going to see what I can find out about Cav's Addicts... really interesting subject to me


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## zizou (27 Jul 2012)

The Venge he was riding at HTC might not have been custom sized but the whole bike was developed around Cavendish and how he sprints (basically how he fish tails the bike) so not all standard geometries are created equal.

On a related subject will be interesting to see if Boonen chooses his venge or tarmac for the Olympic road race.


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## yello (27 Jul 2012)

StuAff said:


> Argues, quite convincingly IMHO, that Sky are perfectly capable of going for yellow and green next year.


 
That's what I'd have thought too, given the right balance of riders. Whether Cavendish sees himself as a part of that though is another matter.

Cavendish could sign for another team, become central to the that team's vision, have a team built around him and win more sprint stages... if that's what he wants.

I think it's safe to say we'll not see an HTC like train at Sky in the foreseeable future (in fact, will we ever see such a train again?) Equally, we've seen that Cavendish doesn't need one to win (though he does arguably win less frequently). I think there's a place at Sky for Cavendish if he wants to stay but he'll not be the team's only focus. I also think Sky currently offers him the best platform to develop as a rider. The question is, do Cavendish's aspirations match Sky's goals?


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## smutchin (27 Jul 2012)

If Sky hadn't lost Siutsou so early, and if they'd had Geraint Thomas on the team, and if Cav hadn't had a bit of misfortune on some of the early stages, things might have been very different in this Tour...

I firmly believe Cav _could_ go for green with Sky, and could well succeed with a bit of luck on his side, though it's not exactly controversial to say that he'd find it slightly easier with a team built around him. If OPQS can promise him that, you'd have to assume he would consider it a tempting offer.

Not a foregone conclusion, though. There are still plenty of good reasons to stay at Sky (cycling reasons, not just money).

d.


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## tigger (27 Jul 2012)

I'd agree with most of that Smutchin although I'd also add that I don't think Green will be his primary aim. I think stage wins have always been his main focus and the closer he gets to the Cannibal's record the more important they will become. Genuinely, I do't think he or anyone else for that matter has a hope of beating Sagan for green for the next 2 years at least. Unless ASO change things. Sagan will get high placings and even wins on stages where Cav can win and also win other stages where Cav won't figure at all.

The other thing I'd add is that whilst Cav had some bad luck, lacked protection and lead outs early on in this Tour he still had opportunities. Namely stage 5 where he just got it wrong and was outsprinted, and stage 13 where he couldn't get over a climb (which Greipel managed) and in which Wiggo led out EBH. So thats 5 stages he could have / should have bagged, notwithstanding the crashes and lack of appetite for Sky to chase down breaks in other stages.

But all things considered, of course he'd maximise his chances in a dedicated team and that is why we may (I've changed my tune - will) see him at OPQ next year.


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## MichaelM (27 Jul 2012)

smutchin said:


> If Sky hadn't lost Siutsou so early, and if they'd had Geraint Thomas on the team, and if Cav hadn't had a bit of misfortune on some of the early stages, things might have been very different in this Tour... then Sky would have had the largest team at the tour


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## smutchin (27 Jul 2012)

Yes, obviously having a team of 10 would improve Cav's chances...

Joking aside, there's a good serious point to be made here - Geraint Thomas would have been an automatic selection if available but who would have been dropped to make way for him? Not a lot in the way of dead wood on that team.

d.


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