# Peter Sagan and the TdF



## rich p (11 Jul 2014)

He's in a cleft stick or summink.
On the one hand he's a shoo-in for the points jersey again, barring Acts of God, but he hasn't won a stage. He may yet, I know, but Kittel is way behind in the points race but has won 3 stages. I'm pretty sure the German will be the happier of the two.
In my opinion the points jersey is second from last in the sack race - an interesting sideshow but ultimately pointless.
I'm not sure where he can go or how he can change things but he's in danger of falling between stools, especially as he's now a marked man and is finding it harder to win races/stages, in the last year or two. He's an immense talent and still young but I'd hate to see it all dissipated on fluff.
Would he be satisfied with a career palmares showing the odd Classics win, a handful of stages and a wardrobe of green jerseys?
Waddya think?


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## Flick of the Elbow (11 Jul 2014)

If he was a little more careful in how he uses his team and his own energies he could have won two stages by now, today being one of them.


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## jack smith (11 Jul 2014)

Ive been routing for him since the start but i dont get the tour what so ever kittel has won more stages so how he is so low in the rankings confuses me if he has rode the route the fastest he deserves to be winning in my opinion


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## tigger (11 Jul 2014)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> If he was a little more careful in how he uses his team and his own energies he could have won two stages by now, today being one of them.



Agreed. Biologically academic but tactically stupid I think.


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## themosquitoking (11 Jul 2014)

jack smith said:


> Ive been routing for him since the start but i dont get the tour what so ever kittel has won more stages so how he is so low in the rankings confuses me if he has rode the route the fastest he deserves to be winning in my opinion


Sagan has finished in the top five on every stage, he collects points in the intermediate sprints too, Kittel finished 20 mins down on stage 2 but every time he finished first guess who was right behind him. Sagan has targeted the green jersey and deserves it but i hope he gets a stage win too.


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## laurence (11 Jul 2014)

jack smith said:


> Ive been routing for him since the start but i dont get the tour what so ever kittel has won more stages so how he is so low in the rankings confuses me if he has rode the route the fastest he deserves to be winning in my opinion



luckily the race doesn't run to your opinion - Kittel may have been fastest on the stages he won, but he lost 18 minutes on stage 5 and 19 minutes on stage 2. he is a long way from being the fastest over the route.

Sagan may not have won any stages, but he has placed higher than Kittel on all but the ones Marcel won.


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## deptfordmarmoset (11 Jul 2014)

rich p said:


> He's in a cleft stick or summink.
> On the one hand he's a shoo-in for the points jersey again, barring Acts of God, but he hasn't won a stage. He may yet, I know, but Kittel is way behind in the points race but has won 3 stages. I'm pretty sure the German will be the happier of the two.
> In my opinion the points jersey is second from last in the sack race - an interesting sideshow but ultimately pointless.
> I'm not sure where he can go or how he can change things but he's in danger of falling between stools, especially as he's now a marked man and is finding it harder to win races/stages, in the last year or two. He's an immense talent and still young but I'd hate to see it all dissipated on fluff.
> ...


I reckon he's going to pinch Ned Boulting's bum when he wins one.


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## themosquitoking (11 Jul 2014)

rich p said:


> He's in a cleft stick or summink.
> On the one hand he's a shoo-in for the points jersey again, barring Acts of God, but he hasn't won a stage. He may yet, I know, but Kittel is way behind in the points race but has won 3 stages. I'm pretty sure the German will be the happier of the two.
> In my opinion the points jersey is second from last in the sack race - an interesting sideshow but ultimately pointless.
> I'm not sure where he can go or how he can change things but he's in danger of falling between stools, especially as he's now a marked man and is finding it harder to win races/stages, in the last year or two. He's an immense talent and still young but I'd hate to see it all dissipated on fluff.
> ...


Give him a couple of years to mature up a bit more, he's done a lot of that in the last twelve months, and i reckon he'll be a full on GC contender. Who would bet against a Sagan, Quintana, Quintana podium of some order in maybe 3 years?


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## Donger (11 Jul 2014)

laurence said:


> luckily the race doesn't run to your opinion - Kittel may have been fastest on the stages he won, but he lost 18 minutes on stage 5 and 19 minutes on stage 2. he is a long way from being the fastest over the route.
> 
> Sagan may not have won any stages, but he has placed higher than Kittel on all but the ones Marcel won.


I'm coming round to your way of thinking. After 3 stages, I was starting to think there was something wrong with the points system, but you have to hand it to Sagan, being in the points every day and coming close however the race shapes up. He is still young, and If he works on his climbing and time trialling, I could see him being a genuine GC contender in a couple of years time. Failing that, what's wrong with settling for a palmares that includes a couple of classic wins and a whole bunch of green jerseys (as mentioned by an earlier poster)? That's better than a kick in the b***s with a diver's boot.


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## jazzkat (12 Jul 2014)

Give him time. He's 10 years younger than Wiggins, 8 years younger than Contador, 5 years younger than Froome and Nibali.

I think he's one of the most exciting riders in the peloton. He's a great rouler and so consistent. He's got a sense of style and humour that could (if it hasn't already) make him a bit of a poster boy for cycle racing. His comment to Ned Boulting about how would _he_ feel if he'd fallen off twice was a classic!

I perhaps come across as a bit of a fan boy, I'm not (honest!), I just think he's got his best years to come.

As far as _just _having a couple of classics and a wardrobe full of green, wow, there are riders in the peloton that would die happy with that palmares!


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## Crackle (12 Jul 2014)

I've never seen him so pissed off before. I think he's realized that talent and impishness will only take him so far and now he's set the bar higher for himself, he's finding the whole thing a bit weightier, responsibility of leading a team etc… I think we're seeing a maturing Sagan who's stopped being the race clown. It'll be interesting to see if he can rise to the challenge he seems to have set himself.


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## thom (12 Jul 2014)

*Green Gauge*
The rider of the 2014 Tour de France's first week is Peter Sagan. So why is his brilliance taken for granted?
http://rouleur.cc/journal/racing/green-gauge

By Andy McGrath

"A few Julys ago, while working as a reporter at _Cycling Weekly_, we had an afternoon meeting (those things should be abolished during the Tour de France). It meant we missed that day’s flat stage.

Emerging from the conference room, I asked who had won. “Mark Cavendish,” was the reply. But of course. No note of excitement in the respondent’s voice, no surprise for me to hear it. It was like asking someone for the time. I sat down and got on with my work.

This was at the height of Cavendish’s dominance, a time it was more surprising when he _didn’t_win a bunch sprint. So when the Manx sprinter tumbled out on day one of this year's race, it made me rue that presumption.

How quickly we Britons – I can’t have been the only one - went from a nation of Tour fringe performers to one gorged on Mark Cavendish victories, treating four or five stage wins per Tour as commonplace.

Now, in the first week of the 2014 Tour de France, I’m recognising a similar under-reaction to Peter Sagan’s incredible consistency. For me, the rider of the first week is undoubtedly the Slovakian. His results so far: second, fourth, second, fourth, fourth, fifth (despite crashing yesterday). He hasn’t won a stage, but it’s only a matter of time.

Yet all the plaudits belong to Vincenzo Nibali and Marcel Kittel, all the attention is fixated on the comportment of the yellow jersey contenders over the cobbles. Sagan’s sashay to the green jersey is taken as an unremarkable _fait accompli_.

Let’s remind ourselves of the facts. He’s only 24, still eligible for the white jersey, and already seemingly cruising to a third consecutive green jersey. “Sagan could take a rest day and still be ahead of them,” Sean Kelly remarked cuttingly in the Eurosport commentary yesterday.

He has the bike handling skills of a trials rider and the pizzazz of a rock star. If it was a new rider doing all this, he’d be praised to the hilt.

Is it because crushing dominance becomes boring when it isn’t new? Perhaps. But sometimes you have to doff your hat and recognise just what he is doing. It is ludicrous in this era of cycling specialisation to have an all-rounder who could mix it with the Tour contenders on the grippy hills outside Sheffield, finish on Kittel’s coat-tails in bunch sprints and smash it with the pavé powerhouses, all the while grabbing intermediate sprint points. Professional cycling hasn’t seen a rider like this for many years.

So, don’t take Peter Sagan for granted. Before we know it, his reign will be over and we’ll be tearing down a champion that we under-appreciated in the first place."


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## rich p (12 Jul 2014)

jazzkat said:


> Give him time. He's 10 years younger than Wiggins, 8 years younger than Contador, 5 years younger than Froome and Nibali.
> 
> I think he's one of the most exciting riders in the peloton. He's a great rouler and so consistent. He's got a sense of style and humour that could (if it hasn't already) make him a bit of a poster boy for cycle racing. His comment to Ned Boulting about how would _he_ feel if he'd fallen off twice was a classic!
> 
> ...


I think you're missing my point. I have already agreed that he's young which gives him time to change his approach. I'm not sure what he'll change into.
IMHO, as I said earlier, the points jersey is a sideshow and a rider with such talent must have higher ambition than a couple of Classics and some green.
My point is that he's not just any rider in the peloton - and he'll want more than that on his palmares.


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## jazzkat (12 Jul 2014)

rich p said:


> I think you're missing my point. I have already agreed that he's young which gives him time to change his approach. I'm not sure what he'll change into.
> IMHO, as I said earlier, the points jersey is a sideshow and a rider with such talent must have higher ambition than a couple of Classics and some green.
> My point is that he's not just any rider in the peloton - and he'll want more than that on his palmares.


I know where you are coming from, the points jerseys - green, white and KoM are more of a competition within a competition, might be semantics but I wouldn't dismiss them as a sideshow (if indeed you are being dismissive). 
As Crackle says above, he doesn't seem a happy bunny at the moment and maybe the enormity of the task is starting to dawn on him, but if he continues with the consistency and ability he has shown so far, it's only a matter of time. As it stands he's in third place with only 44 seconds down. I'm sure he's got the big one in his sights, who knows this time next week he might have a different jersey on?
Damn, I do sound like a fan boy


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## suzeworld (12 Jul 2014)

Flick of the Elbow said:


> If he was a little more careful in how he uses his team and his own energies he could have won two stages by now, today being one of them.



Yea, I'm far from an expert but even I could see the tactical errors he made yesterday! Is it a youth / experience thing?

Hope he does manage to get at least one stage at some point..

dunno if I agree with the journo, though, I dont feel like I am taking him for granted myself .. I really like him!


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## Andrew_Culture (12 Jul 2014)

deptfordmarmoset said:


> I reckon he's going to pinch Ned Boulting's bum when he wins one.



I nearly laughed fizzy orange through my nose when I read this!


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## Scoosh (12 Jul 2014)

I think what Cannondale are missing is an experienced Captain on the Road - their version of, say, Bernie Eisel for Cav at HTC or David Millar for TeamGB in Copenhagen.

With that experience to guide him, Sagan wouldn't have to make all the tactical decisions and could concentrate on his riding and winning.


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## ColinJ (12 Jul 2014)

Andrew_Culture said:


> I nearly laughed fizzy orange through my nose when I read this!


I hate it when that happens - realising that you have run out of fizzy orange when you want to laugh it through your nose! 


Scoosh said:


> I think what Cannondale are missing is an experienced Captain on the Road - their version of, say, Bernie Eisel for Cav at HTC or David Millar for TeamGB in Copenhagen.
> 
> With that experience to guide him, Sagan wouldn't have to make all the tactical decisions and could concentrate on his riding and winning.


It would probably be a good idea, except that he strikes me as the kind of rider who likes to do his own thing and wouldn't listen to advice ...


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## montage (13 Jul 2014)

I've always considered the green jersey the second most important after the yellow - am I missing something?


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## Bollo (13 Jul 2014)

montage said:


> I've always considered the green jersey the second most important after the yellow - am I missing something?


I believe the prize money for the overall winner of the green and polka dot jerseys is the same at 25,000 euros, with a little bit more prize money available for individual points victories than KoM wins. In the end I guess it's what floats your boat in terms of importance. Being a fat lad, I've always enjoyed the sprints more than the climbs so I lined to take more notice of the points.


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## rich p (13 Jul 2014)

montage said:


> I've always considered the green jersey the second most important after the yellow - am I missing something?


It's a matter of opinion, MOntaggio, but if it was me I'd rather win 5 stages, than the none plus the green.


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## Beebo (14 Jul 2014)

Has anyone else seen his official TdF photo?





What's going on with his hair?


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## Bollo (14 Jul 2014)

Beebo said:


> Has anyone else seen his official TdF photo?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Wolverine is going on with his hair. Check out the paintjob on his bike.


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## jarlrmai (14 Jul 2014)

I like that saddle....


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## Dave Davenport (14 Jul 2014)

Great rider that he is, I can't ever see him becoming good enough in the high mountains to be a serious GC contender. Winning the green jersey every year by being 'consistent' is going to lose it's appeal quite quickly (maybe it already has), I don't see he's got anywhere to go but GT stages, classics and maybe a world champs or Olympics if the course is right for him and he can manage it solo. Not too shabby a prospect IMO.


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## smutchin (15 Jul 2014)

If Sean Kelly can win a GT, so can Sagan. I have faith in this. Kelly improved as a climber over his career, and he won that final 30km time trial in the 1988 Vuelta by virtue of really, really, really wanting it. He was also helped by Robert Millar in the mountains - a decent climbing domestique or two would be invaluable to Sagan.

He'll need a bit of luck on his side, of course, just as Kelly did when he won the Vuelta, but if you're a canny racer, you tend to make your own luck - things like making sure you're on the right side of a split in the peloton on a wind-affected stage, for example. Maybe he is starting to realise he can't get by on enthusiasm alone and needs to learn to race more tactically.


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## rich p (15 Jul 2014)

smutchin said:


> If Sean Kelly can win a GT, so can Sagan. I have faith in this. Kelly improved as a climber over his career, and he won that final 30km time trial in the 1988 Vuelta by virtue of really, really, really wanting it. He was also helped by Robert Millar in the mountains - a decent climbing domestique or two would be invaluable to Sagan.
> 
> He'll need a bit of luck on his side, of course, just as Kelly did when he won the Vuelta, but if you're a canny racer, you tend to make your own luck - things like making sure you're on the right side of a split in the peloton on a wind-affected stage, for example. Maybe he is starting to realise he can't get by on enthusiasm alone and needs to learn to race more tactically.


He will need to lose some weight too


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## smutchin (15 Jul 2014)

rich p said:


> He will need to lose some weight too



True!


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## montage (15 Jul 2014)

rich p said:


> It's a matter of opinion, MOntaggio, but if it was me I'd rather win 5 stages, than the none plus the green.



I guess you're right!


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## charley bradley (15 Jul 2014)

i think it is the second most important jersey as it makes the flat days a bit more intresting.


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## The Couch (16 Jul 2014)

smutchin said:


> If Sean Kelly can win a GT, so can Sagan....He'll need a bit of luck on his side, of course...


Of course, if someone would convince him today to drastically change, he might just do so, but...

Can't see this happening, he would really need to drastically change his weight/training schedule and would need to forego focusing on the classics
(which, without currently actually having won one of the big ones yet, won't happen at all I believe)
(and let's not forget he does win a lot of minor stages/races with his current build as well)

By the time he would feel satisfied with his victory total using his current build (especially in the classics), it would be too late to make a real contender out of him


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## Beebo (16 Jul 2014)

Well the guys on the BBC were very angry with Sagan for his display today, they felt he did far too much work at the front, tiring himself out, then when the main attack happened he missed the boat. 
The phrase they used about 10 times was "thrown it away, yet again!"


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## smutchin (16 Jul 2014)

The Couch said:


> By the time he would feel satisfied with his victory total using his current build (especially in the classics), it would be too late to make a real contender out of him



Do you think so? Kelly didn't win the Vuelta until he was 32. Rik Van Looy got a podium in the Vuelta when he was in his 30s. Sagan is still only 24 - has a lot of time to develop yet...


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## themosquitoking (16 Jul 2014)

smutchin said:


> Do you think so? Kelly didn't win the Vuelta until he was 32. Rik Van Looy got a podium in the Vuelta when he was in his 30s. Sagan is still only 24 - has a lot of time to develop yet...


Ahem, Chris Horner.


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## Bollo (16 Jul 2014)

Beebo said:


> Well the guys on the BBC were very angry with Sagan for his display today, they felt he did far too much work at the front, tiring himself out, then when the main attack happened he missed the boat.
> The phrase they used about 10 times was "thrown it away, yet again!"


I bit harsh I thought. He had to go with the break in case it stuck, but it was almost a case of 'anyone but Sagan' once the break had established and he'd dropped his support. Maybe on other stages be could have played it better but I think he was stitched up today, especially as so many teams are after stage wins after losing their team leaders.


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## tigger (16 Jul 2014)

He's such a marked man now. The way I see it he has two options in those situations. Either stay in the bunch and force their hand and/or not burn his teammates out and have at least one with him to cover the break.


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## Beebo (16 Jul 2014)

Bollo said:


> I bit harsh I thought. He had to go with the break in case it stuck, but it was almost a case of 'anyone but Sagan' once the break had established and he'd dropped his support. Maybe on other stages be could have played it better but I think he was stitched up today, especially as so many teams are after stage wins after losing their team leaders.


Ok, i have now watched the highlights, i feel the radio guys were being a bit harsh, as you say he didnt do much wrong.


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## Monsieur Remings (16 Jul 2014)

smutchin said:


> If Sean Kelly can win a GT, so can Sagan. I have faith in this. Kelly improved as a climber over his career, and he won that final 30km time trial in the 1988 Vuelta by virtue of *really, really, really* wanting it. He was also helped by Robert Millar in the mountains - a decent climbing domestique or two would be invaluable to Sagan.
> 
> He'll need a bit of luck on his side, of course, just as Kelly did when he won the Vuelta, but if you're a canny racer, you tend to make your own luck - things like making sure you're on the right side of a split in the peloton on a wind-affected stage, for example. Maybe he is starting to realise he can't get by on enthusiasm alone and needs to learn to race more tactically.





He's not as great as Kelly yet. Not really really really...I mean it, really.


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## StuAff (16 Jul 2014)

Monsieur Remings said:


> He's not as great as Kelly yet. Not really really really...I mean it, really.


And nor is he doping as Kelly was.... I hope.


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## Andrew Br (17 Jul 2014)

It seems to me that Sagan is as marked now as Cancellara is.
It's ironic since Sagan has wheel-sucked Cancellara in the past .....................

.


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## suzeworld (17 Jul 2014)

tigger said:


> He's *such a marked man now. *The way I see it he has two options in those situations. Either stay in the bunch and force their hand and/or not burn his teammates out and have at least one with him to cover the break.



This is basically what Boardman said.
I hope he manages to get at least one stage.


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## smutchin (17 Jul 2014)

Monsieur Remings said:


> He's not as great as Kelly yet.



Nor was Kelly at his age.

I'll accept that comparisons between Sagan and Kelly or Van Looy may be premature, but I don't think we've seen anything like the best of Sagan yet. He's still only 24, FFS. That means, what, three years before he hits his peak?


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## Crackle (17 Jul 2014)

suzeworld said:


> This is basically what Boardman said.
> I hope he manages to get at least one stage.


As Boardman said: He needed to close that gap when Gallopin went as no one else was going to do it and take Sagan with them.


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## The Couch (17 Jul 2014)

smutchin said:


> Kelly didn't win the Vuelta until he was 32. Rik Van Looy got a podium in the Vuelta when he was in his 30s. Sagan is still only 24 - has a lot of time to develop yet...





smutchin said:


> ... I don't think we've seen anything like the best of Sagan yet. He's still only 24, FFS. That means, what, three years before he hits his peak?


I agree that in the past others have been able to change their specialty, but personally I don't think it can be done in the current "climate" of specialization. 
(Gilbert, Cancellara, T. Martin, Gerrans,.. have shown multi-leveled talents in the past years as well, but none of them has/will ever be a GT contender)
I stay convinced he wants to win (a bunch of) classics first and say he's happy within 3-4 years with his Classics win total (which would mean he pretty needs to dominate them the next years), I still can't see him changing his "built" (at his age peak) so quickly that he will be able to match people like Quintana, Kelderman, Betancur, Aru, ... on the very long climbs (who already have the climber qualities now and are young as well)

That being said, he is an unbelievable talent, so he wouldn't totally blow me away if he could manage to do so 
It just I don't think he will ever be interested enough in it


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## smutchin (17 Jul 2014)

The Couch said:


> That being said, he is an unbelievable talent, so he wouldn't totally blow me away if he could manage to do so



Yeah, I'm not saying it will definitely happen but I'm happy to stick my neck out and go so far as to say it's possible. 

Of course he'll never compete with the climbing specialists like Quintana in the mountains, but if he lost a few kilos and had a stronger team around him, he could limit his losses enough to be in with a strong chance of a podium place at least.



> It just I don't think he will ever be interested enough in it



To go back to @rich p's original post, no, I don't think he'd ultimately be satisfied with a career palmares showing the odd Classics win, a handful of stages and a wardrobe of green jerseys. But, you know, I've been wrong about things like this before and I dare say I'll be wrong again.


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## Monsieur Remings (17 Jul 2014)

I don't particularly like the guy but I was hoping he was going to win today...he looked boxed in and got clear too late from the way I saw it, a trifle too long on Kristoff's wheel perhaps?

And yes Smutchin, agreed, he is still young but I can't see him becoming a GC contender either. But what he does have is many years ahead to puncheur away and this year's frustration is something he'll have to learn from, tough as it is, taking much esteem from being so close to the finish so many times. He is, as you say, a real talent.

I can't help thinking either that the odd classics win in a different culture to ours, namely Flandrian, is slightly more prestigious than is being given credit for. He'll be pinching arses winning races for many years to come and if green jerseys, classics and stages aren't enough, he can always take up hairdressing.


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## Pro Tour Punditry (17 Jul 2014)

I hope you are not forgetting that he's good a wheelies.


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## rich p (17 Jul 2014)

Marmion said:


> I hope you are not forgetting that he's good a wheelies.


wheelie wheelie good?


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## Joshua Plumtree (18 Jul 2014)

If everyone had to finish the stage by landing perfectly in the team roof-rack he might stand more of a chance!


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## Bollo (18 Jul 2014)

rich p said:


> wheelie wheelie good?


We need to put an endo to this right now.


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## laurence (18 Jul 2014)

Sagan and Boulting make a lovely couple. i look forward to the end of stage interview, the chemistry sets the screen alight.


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## themosquitoking (18 Jul 2014)

Joshua Plumtree said:


> If everyone had to finish the stage by landing perfectly in the team roof-rack he might stand more of a chance!


This should be a thing.


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## deptfordmarmoset (18 Jul 2014)

laurence said:


> Sagan and Boulting make a lovely couple. i look forward to the end of stage interview, the chemistry sets the screen alight.


I don't know about the mirrors bit but there's definitely something smoking between them. Much though I'd like to see Sagan pinching Boulting's bum, I somehow don't think it's going to happen. But Ned's going to get a comeuppance soon, I can feel it.


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## suzeworld (21 Jul 2014)

Another near miss into Nîmes. He was coming through strong, but not quite enough.


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## nickyboy (21 Jul 2014)

His current physiology is well suited to classics and stages in grand tours, particularly lumpy ones. Not well suited to long alpine climbs and he loses a lot of time on those (although how much effort he puts in bearing in mind he knows he can't actually win the stage is another matter).
Clearly he has remarkable physical capabilities but I do wonder if he could change his body shape sufficiently to become a grand tour contender. I suspect not. He'll never be a stick insect even if he wanted to. Maybe he will focus on being the next incarnation of Cancellara/Boonen
I also think people underestimate the importance in a cyclists career of winning multiple classics versus a grand tour


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## Dogtrousers (21 Jul 2014)

What's the betting that Sagan will be the second most rested rider after today?


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