# will ebikes drop in price and get better like a laptop or other electronics



## windy7777 (22 Mar 2021)

being a guy on limeted income id love to get a decent one for 5 hundred dollars


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## slowmotion (22 Mar 2021)

Battery technology is improving quickly so I would expect they'll get better for a given price.


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## windy7777 (22 Mar 2021)

cool ive wanted a ebike the day i saw one in walmart .it had 2 huge batteries hugeeee... id guess the batts weighed 40 pounds alone.


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## slowmotion (22 Mar 2021)

I don't have an ebike but I have a good friend who uses one to commute five miles to work in London. He's been doing so for a few years. I was amazed at how heavy it is compared to mine.


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## windy7777 (22 Mar 2021)

mine is small so its like 39 pounds.


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## Stul (22 Mar 2021)

..you may find that the technology will improve but the prices will stay the same? There seems to be a shortage combined with high demand, so not much incentive for suppliers to drop prices?


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## gzoom (22 Mar 2021)

slowmotion said:


> Battery technology is improving quickly so I would expect they'll get better for a given price.



Battery technology has plateaued, however prices are falling, and cost of motors will get cheaper as brand recoup their R&D costs. 

A bit like electric cars (which aren't really getting any cheaper), it will be along time before they get really cheap.


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## Drago (22 Mar 2021)

slowmotion said:


> Battery technology is improving quickly so I would expect they'll get better for a given price.


I would suggest the pace of battery development has slowed considerabky in the last few years. LiOn has one almost as far as it can go developmentally and we really need a breakthrough or a new technology. In terms of energy density little has changed in 2 decades.

Furthermore, there is a massive ramp up in demand for the raw materials due to the rise of the battery car.

And then there is the rise in demand, and consequently price, of the bicycle itself.

As things stand today, I reckon the foreseeable is not going to bring any appreciable reduction in ebike prices, and on the balance of probabilities a continuous, inexorable rise in price seems most likely, and will continue until otherm currently unforeseen market forces intervene.



slowmotion said:


> I don't have an ebike but I have a good friend who uses one to commute five miles to work in London. He's been doing so for a few years. I was amazed at how heavy it is compared to mine.



Indeedy. Mine is at the lighter end of the scale for a full size, XL, diamond framed ebike at a mere 18kg, which still dwarfs the lardiest of my full squidge MTBs.


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## Pale Rider (22 Mar 2021)

slowmotion said:


> Battery technology is improving quickly so I would expect they'll get better for a given price.



Battery technology is moving at a glacial pace.

Lithium ion became common in the early 2000s.

Nearly twenty years later, energy density has hardly improved at all.

New technology batteries appear regularly and look promising but never get any further than the lab's test bench.

It's great scientists are trying, and someone might crack it one day, but at the moment lithium is the only game in town.


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## CXRAndy (22 Mar 2021)

Lithium cells chemistry has changed, with incremental improvements, nothing astounding but are decent. The Anode delete Tesla is using on its latest Model Y and 3 are clear examples of development. This will filter down to others. Dry cell technology will be the next improved battery.


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## Phaeton (22 Mar 2021)

Hopefully now the cheaters are getting more involved, i.e. Sports teams, with both Formula E & Extreme E, where the teams main concern is circumventing the rules & developing an advantage something good will come out. Although I still think electric powered vehicles is a white elephant.


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## Blue Hills (22 Mar 2021)

Phaeton said:


> Although I still think electric powered vehicles is a white elephant.


Interesting point - I take it you mean as an alternative to tradit engine cars - care to start a new thread?


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## Phaeton (22 Mar 2021)

Blue Hills said:


> Interesting point - I take it you mean as an alternative to tradit engine cars - care to start a new thread?


I think there are already a few on here, but by all means start another on the specifics


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## Ridgeway (22 Mar 2021)

Not until sales slow and at present it's just the opposite. Cost plus pricing disappeared long ago so even if they could build these bikes for 30% less they wouldn't sell them at lower prices until sales slow down.


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## Drago (22 Mar 2021)

Ridgeway said:


> Not until sales slow and at present it's just the opposite. Cost plus pricing disappeared long ago so even if they could build these bikes for 30% less they wouldn't sell them at lower prices until sales slow down.


^^^ This. Look how many hundreds, or even a thousand or more, of pounds people are willing to drop on an iphone that cost $20 to manifacture. They could sell them for $100 dollar and still do very nicely, but they don't because people are daft enough willing to pay the exorbitant prices. So it probably is with ebikes.


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## Blue Hills (23 Mar 2021)

Drago said:


> ^^^ This. Look how many hundreds, or even a thousand or more, of pounds people are willing to drop on an iphone that cost $20 to manifacture. They could sell them for $100 dollar and still do very nicely, but they don't because people are daft enough willing to pay the exorbitant prices. So it probably is with ebikes.


not disputing yours and ridgeway's highlighting of marketing managing to boost pricing, but surely the smartphone analogy doesn't hold. Nor Ridgeway referring to ebike makers as "they" as if "they" are monolithic.
You don't have to buy an iphone, other smartphones are available.
Some ebike makers may try to maintain high margins but others might choose to undercut them as their own path to profit?


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## Pale Rider (23 Mar 2021)

I agree prices are set largely by what the market will stand, but I can't decide if ebike manufacturers are profiteering.

A premium £1,600 Bosch bike is effectively a £600 bike (at retail) with a battery and motor.

The Bosch system is their own, so had to be designed, developed, and manufactured.

No doubt the motor is relatively to cheap to make, but we are told batteries are expensive to make due in part to high raw material costs.

There will be profit in it, but I think it's by no means certain that profit is excessive.


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## gzoom (23 Mar 2021)

Pale Rider said:


> The Bosch system is their own, so had to be designed, developed, and manufactured.
> 
> No doubt the motor is relatively to cheap to make, but we are told batteries are expensive to make due in part to high raw material costs.



Battery costs are at most $200/kWh at present (for the complete battery), so a 500wh eBike battery will be $100 manufacturing costs.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery...in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/

However companies do need to get their money back for R&D, along with profits


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## Phaeton (23 Mar 2021)

I bought my Cube towards end of 2019, paid £1600 getting a £200 discount for not doing it on the cycle to work scheme, same bike (if you can find one) £2200 no discount. But to me all new bikes are overpriced, although I indulge I don't see the cost in them


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## bruce1530 (23 Mar 2021)

The comparison with laptops is an interesting one. I suspect the answer is going to be the same - the prices will drop when the market says they must. 

For years, laptop prices were static, at around £1000 per unit for the type I buy (I typically order several hundred a year at work). Technology moved on, laptops got lighter and more powerful, but the prices stayed relatively constant at roughly twice the price of a desktop PC. You got more "bang for buck", but the cost didnt really change.

Then the "netbook" came along - small laptops, very portable, limited functionality, keyboard and screen too small for many purposes, but relatively cheap. Popular at the time, but the main impact they had on the market was to bring down the average price of the "mainstream" laptops by about 50% over 3 years or so.

Maybe we'll see the same with ebikes - the price is dictated by demand as well as raw material costs, and until something shakes up the market, there's little incentive for the manufacturers to reduce costs.


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## Phaeton (23 Mar 2021)

@bruce1530 Although I take your point on the laptops, I'm not sure that it is quite valid, with laptop there was development available, faster processes, more memory, moving from traditional hard drives to SSD, but a bike is a bike is a bike, you can't really have a smaller version like you can have with a notebook. other than the battery lasting longer what gains can there be?


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## byegad (23 Mar 2021)

Graphene batteries are potentially a get out of jail free card for the technology. High energy density and quite fast recharge times, not too much longer than filling a large petrol tank.
IFF they come on line the limiting factor will be availability of power to charge the cars using them.


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## gzoom (23 Mar 2021)

byegad said:


> Graphene batteries are potentially a get out of jail free card for the technology. High energy density and quite fast recharge times, not too much longer than filling a large petrol tank.



Graphene is still lab tech, Lithium ion has only now got to the point of been cheap enough to be viable in EVs - and only just.

Sony introduced the first Lithium ion battery in 1991, battery prices didn't start to fall until about 2010 onwards.

Similar OLED display tech was first demoed in 1987, it took another 3 decades before you could buy OLED TVs at a sensible price.

It will be another few decades before Graphene can be commercialised for consumer usage in batteries.


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## byegad (23 Mar 2021)

gzoom said:


> Graphene is still lab tech, Lithium ion has only now got to the point of been cheap enough to be viable in EVs - and only just.
> 
> Sony introduced the first Lithium ion battery in 1991, battery prices didn't start to fall untill about 2010 onwards.
> 
> ...


When push comes to shove things may well move faster. See Covid vaccines.


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## Phaeton (23 Mar 2021)

gzoom said:


> before you could buy OLED TVs at a sensible price.


That depends on your definition of sensible, I've just replaced my TV, £1300 & still didn't get into OLED territory


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## Ridgeway (23 Mar 2021)

I think one limiting factor here is product positioning on ebikes, you can position them according to range and NM of torque but not too much more unlike a tablet, phone, laptop etc. Of course you can also then drill down to gears, brakes etc but that's the same with any bike.

If range and torque increase then it will create a gap in the market for lower priced/specified units, as Bruce says above the higher specs will likely be used to maintain the current pricing level.

Branded 25kmh bikes here are about £2k where as branded 45kmh bikes are about double that and i'd guess that the on cost of manufacturing is perhaps 25% vs the standard 25kmh bikes.


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## gzoom (23 Mar 2021)

byegad said:


> When push comes to shove things may well move faster. See Covid vaccines.



COVID vaccines had the backing of virtually unlimited resources with resources actually already in place due to Ebola/Bird flu - the industruy was actually prepared for vaccine production as a case of when not if even though no one saw COVID coming and its impact.

I own an EV and even I admit the environmental 'benefits' are marginal at best, governments see the 'green' push for EVs been related to jobs/taxes as much as anything else. The numbers have to balance, and mass producing something like a Graphene cell is going to cost a whole shed load of £££££ with no guarantee of success. Especially when Lithium ion is already good enough.


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## byegad (23 Mar 2021)

gzoom said:


> COVID vaccines had the backing of virtually unlimited resources with resources actually already in place due to Ebola/Bird flu - the industruy was actually prepared for vaccine production as a case of when not if even though no one saw COVID coming and its impact.
> 
> I own an EV and even I admit the environmental 'benefits' are marginal at best, governments see the 'green' push for EVs been related to jobs/taxes as much as anything else. The numbers have to balance, and mass producing something like a Graphene cell is going to cost a whole shed load of £££££ with no guarantee of success. Especially when Lithium ion is already good enough.


It is going to depend on the urgency governments see the climate emergency. Enough money and it'll be quicker than you think.


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## Phaeton (23 Mar 2021)

byegad said:


> It is going to depend on the urgency governments see the climate emergency.


Is it even on most radars? Realistically, unless their masters can make money out of it they are not interested


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## Pale Rider (23 Mar 2021)

Ridgeway said:


> Branded 25kmh bikes here are about £2k where as branded 45kmh bikes are about double that and i'd guess that the on cost of manufacturing is perhaps 25% vs the standard 25kmh bikes.



With the Bosch system the only difference is the speed cut off, so I can't see any extra manufacturing costs.

Speed pedelec rated tyres might be a few pounds more, but many 25kmh bikes already have 45kmh tyres.

Brakes might be a bit beefier, but I suspect in most cases they are not.

Gearing is usually slightly higher, but of course there's no cost penalty in that.


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## ebikeerwidnes (23 Mar 2021)

gzoom said:


> COVID vaccines had the backing of virtually unlimited resources with resources actually already in place due to Ebola/Bird flu - the industruy was actually prepared for vaccine production as a case of when not if even though no one saw COVID coming and its impact.
> 
> I own an EV and even I admit the environmental 'benefits' are marginal at best, governments see the 'green' push for EVs been related to jobs/taxes as much as anything else. The numbers have to balance, and mass producing something like a Graphene cell is going to cost a whole shed load of £££££ with no guarantee of success. Especially when Lithium ion is already good enough.


Generally agree
but Lithium is not really good enough - it is OK but it is heavy, not very 'energy dense' (although better than previous stuff) and the cells degrade over time
A new type of cell that is lighter, can be charged faster and degrades far slower would be a massive gain


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## cougie uk (23 Mar 2021)

byegad said:


> Graphene batteries are potentially a get out of jail free card for the technology. High energy density and quite fast recharge times, not too much longer than filling a large petrol tank.
> IFF they come on line the limiting factor will be availability of power to charge the cars using them.


The bloke running the national grid says there's no issue with having all cars electric.


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## ebikeerwidnes (23 Mar 2021)

cougie uk said:


> The bloke running the national grid says there's no issue with having all cars electric.


Have you a link for that - I have seen this being flagged as a problem on other forums so having a link showing it isn't a problem would help inform people
Thanks


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## Ridgeway (23 Mar 2021)

Isn't there several amp versions of the Bosch batteries and also NM of torque on some motors ? I remember that my wives is the basic 400amp version with lower torque but some but higher spec.


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## byegad (23 Mar 2021)

Phaeton said:


> Is it even on most radars? Realistically, unless their masters can make money out of it they are not interested


Sadly, I fear you may be right. But, I hope, for my grandchildren's sake, you're not.


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## Drago (23 Mar 2021)

cougie uk said:


> The bloke running the national grid says there's no issue with having all cars electric.


And if he were to say otherwise he would very quickly be replaced by someone else who would say the right thing.


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## CXRAndy (23 Mar 2021)

Drago said:


> And if he were to say otherwise he would very quickly be replaced by someone else who would say the right thing.



Think about it logically, if the grid was so unprepared for EV, the country would be on its knees in very short order.

Vast majority of EVs charge overnight, when demand is very low and grid loading is required to keep voltage from spiking. Lots of steady demand from batteries is desirable


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## Pale Rider (23 Mar 2021)

Ridgeway said:


> Isn't there several amp versions of the Bosch batteries and also NM of torque on some motors ? I remember that my wives is the basic 400amp version with lower torque but some but higher spec.



Currently four sizes and in three cases, 300ah, 400ah, 500ah, and 600 and something.

The 500ah is by far the most popular.

There are also several versions of motors, but there's not a lot in any of them.

The Speed motors have a few less NM of torque than the torquiest 25kmh motor, which is the CX one aimed at MTBs.


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## IanSmithCSE (23 Mar 2021)

Good afternoon

There is a recent post https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/well-swagtron-is-not-great.273365/#post-6355899 that mentions Swagtron.

They are not a company that I had heard of but their web site has folding "brompton" type e-bike for 550USD, with a quoted range of 15.5 miles. They even advertising that you can buy an extra battery for increased range.

So it appears that taking the range down to what I would consider very low values is a marketing strategy in the US at least.

The logical extension of that is to sell e-bikes without a battery at all, and then offer a range of batteries because "the customer has demanded a choice of batteries"

Bye

Ian


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## gzoom (23 Mar 2021)

byegad said:


> It is going to depend on the urgency governments see the climate emergency. Enough money and it'll be quicker than you think.



We can only hope, but am not holding my breath .


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## cougie uk (24 Mar 2021)

ebikeerwidnes said:


> Have you a link for that - I have seen this being flagged as a problem on other forums so having a link showing it isn't a problem would help inform people
> Thanks



Here you go. 


View: https://youtu.be/eaE57tChPQM


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