# How can you tell if a trend will last or not?



## swansonj (4 Jun 2018)

There's an interesting thread at the moment about whether single chainring setups are a marketing gimmick or here to stay. But it seems to me that's just one instance of a new innovation. If you buy new bikes every few years, you probably don't mind choosing a new trend only to discover in a few years it has dropped from popularity. But if you buy bikes to last, it would be helpful to know which of the latest trends are likely to last.

Integrated brake/gear levers; cassettes instead of freewheels; Aheadsets instead of quill stems; these all seem to be here to stay.

Square taper bottom brackets certainly displaced cotters, but are they now permanently displaced by new bearing designs?

26 instead of 27" wheels seemed to come but are now going again? Elliptical chainrings have never lasted?

Disk brakes and carbon frames both seem here to stay but without completely displacing what went before.

Tubeless tyres? through axles? single chainrings? electric shifting?

Here to stay or gone tomorrow? How do you judge?


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## MontyVeda (4 Jun 2018)

I can't see electric shifting staying around for long... the beauty of bikes is the simplicity.

My first MTB back in the mid 90s had elliptical chain rings but I've not seen them since... I don't miss them either.


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## raleighnut (4 Jun 2018)

Leather Saddles and handmade Steel frames seem to have come back into fashion.


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## Oldfentiger (4 Jun 2018)

I wonder how long it will be before a manufacturer tries peripheral disc brakes, moving the braking force closer to the road and reducing the torque loads on the spokes.


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## raleighnut (4 Jun 2018)

Oldfentiger said:


> I wonder how long it will be before a manufacturer tries peripheral disc brakes, moving the braking force closer to the road and reducing the torque loads on the spokes.


And then comes up with the bright idea of integrating them into the wheel rim for simplicity.


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## FishFright (4 Jun 2018)

Applied Retrospective Sampling and Extrapolation is the only approved method.


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## Oldfentiger (4 Jun 2018)

raleighnut said:


> And then comes up with the bright idea of integrating them into the wheel rim for simplicity.


Yes, but would still need to be detachable, or we'd be back to braking surface wear requiring wheel rim replacement.


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## Heltor Chasca (4 Jun 2018)

Cable ties.

Can’t see them lasting the full duration of a lap of the goldfish bowl.


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## swansonj (4 Jun 2018)

Dogtrousers said:


> ...
> 
> Put it the other way. What new trend has actually appeared and then disappeared?
> ....


I'd agree few innovations disappear altogether. But I think that are quite a few that never become mainstream, or look as if they might then recede again. 

Is my impression right that a decade or two ago, it looked like 26" wheels would become the norm, driven by MTB popularity,and 27" (however labelled) would recede into a sporting niche, whereas in fact the unexpected trend has been the other way, with MTBs switching to larger wheels?


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## Fab Foodie (4 Jun 2018)

swansonj said:


> I'd agree few innovations disappear altogether. But I think that are quite a few that never become mainstream, or look as if they might then recede again.
> 
> Is my impression right that a decade or two ago, it looked like 26" wheels would become the norm, driven by MTB popularity,and 27" (however labelled) would recede into a sporting niche, whereas in fact the unexpected trend has been the other way, with MTBs switching to larger wheels?


.... and a trend towards 650 C/B or 26" for touring/Expedition and non-racing usage!


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## Jody (4 Jun 2018)

MontyVeda said:


> My first MTB back in the mid 90s had elliptical chain rings but I've not seen them since...



Oval chainrings are a thing again. 
http://www.mbr.co.uk/reviews/products/absolute-black-oval-chainring-review


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## Jody (4 Jun 2018)

swansonj said:


> Tubeless tyres? through axles?



I can see these two lasting. Through axles have been used for 20 odd years on MTB and tubeless is a great step forward.


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## marzjennings (4 Jun 2018)

Firstly all technology has a shelf life and in general we have to accept whatever we buy today will be incompatible in a few years. But fortunatley with bikes it seems there’s always someone ensuring old tech is available or recreatable. Unlike my old mini-disc player for which I can’t find new discs for. 

For me I’ve always kept an eye on new trends, but only really bought in after a year or two when the new idea seems to be sticking around. Once it seems a new trend is supported by multiple manufactures it’s a reasonably safe bet the new tech has legs for a for years. For example I don’t see anti-lock brakes ever becoming the norm, or even a hub that can control tyre pressure really taking off.


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## Kajjal (4 Jun 2018)

It depends on practicality, marketing and built in redundancy. Often standards are changed to force people to upgrade / replace or create a "new" market. If you take mountain biking disk brakes, suspension and gearing have improved things massively. 3 x 8 gearing works fine but 2 x 11 or 1 x 11 is easier to use. Disc brakes are much better than the early 1990's cantilever brakes which were brakes in name only. The improvement in riding from 1990's rigid to current suspension designs is huge. The trick is to buy what works for you but is not too far off the mainstream to be supported.


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## MontyVeda (4 Jun 2018)

marzjennings said:


> Firstly all technology has a shelf life and in general we have to accept whatever we buy today will be incompatible in a few years. But fortunatley with bikes it seems there’s always someone ensuring old tech is available or recreatable.* Unlike my old mini-disc player for which I can’t find new discs for. *
> 
> For me I’ve always kept an eye on new trends, but only really bought in after a year or two when the new idea seems to be sticking around. Once it seems a new trend is supported by multiple manufactures it’s a reasonably safe bet the new tech has legs for a for years. For example I don’t see anti-lock brakes ever becoming the norm, or even a hub that can control tyre pressure really taking off.


there's still plenty of blanks going on Ebay... or do you mean prerecorded?


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## MontyVeda (4 Jun 2018)

Kajjal said:


> It depends on practicality, marketing and built in redundancy. Often standards are changed to force people to upgrade / replace or create a "new" market. If you take mountain biking disk brakes, suspension and gearing have improved things massively. 3 x 8 gearing works fine but 2 x 11 or 1 x 11 is easier to use. Disc brakes are much better than the *early 1990's cantilever brakes which were brakes in name only.* The improvement in riding from 1990's rigid to current suspension designs is huge. The trick is to buy what works for you but is not too far off the mainstream to be supported.



absolute twaddle... my cantis have been stopping me for over twenty years.


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## marzjennings (4 Jun 2018)

MontyVeda said:


> there's still plenty of blanks going on Ebay... or do you mean prerecorded?


Cheers, but I used my old mini-disc player as an example of technology that came and went. I actually chucked it out last year along with a whole bunch of old tech that was either taking up space or was unrepairable.


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## Racing roadkill (4 Jun 2018)

The way I look at it is, If it’s evolution, it will last, if it’s change for the sake of change, it won’t. As the saying goes, you have to innovate, or you’ll evaporate, but if it ain’t broke, don’t try to fix it.


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## Kajjal (4 Jun 2018)

MontyVeda said:


> absolute twaddle... my cantis have been stopping me for over twenty years.



If you have early 1990's mountain cantis and are taking them down a steep, rough off road trail then they are not stopping you. They are nothing like the current ones on road bikes. Google a picture of an early 1990's mountain bike and you will see why.


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## simon.r (4 Jun 2018)

swansonj said:


> Here to stay or gone tomorrow? How do you judge?



From a practical perspective, as long as you don’t buy into anything particularly outrageous, I don’t think it matters. 

Thinking of the numerous bikes I’ve owned since the early 90’s I can’t think of much that I couldn’t replace with a new part fairly easily. 7 speed cassettes, cantilever brake blocks, threaded headsets etc. are all still widely available. 

The only exceptions I can think of that may not be available are elastomers to fit Proflex MTB’s and parts for suspension forks (though it wouldn’t surprise if someone, somewhere, is making things to order).


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## pawl (4 Jun 2018)

Internal cables.only one of my bikes has an internal cable,that to the rear brake.As far as I can tell it has a full length outer.

A few months ago I was in the market fo a hybrid for riding easy tracks and trails. Unable to find a decent one that didn’t have disks.
Like my bikes to look like bikes I know I’m a dinosaur.


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## derrick (4 Jun 2018)

MontyVeda said:


> I can't see electric shifting staying around for long... the beauty of bikes is the simplicity.
> 
> My first MTB back in the mid 90s had elliptical chain rings but I've not seen them since... I don't miss them either.


Therew is nothing more simple than Di2, it's them old cables that won't last.


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## booze and cake (4 Jun 2018)

If its an improvement on current gear in terms of performance, cost, reliability and longevity, it has every right to succeed. How many trends promise all that though, not many. Apart from tyres, I rarely hear mention of the last one, manufacturers would obviously prefer us to buy more often.

Press fit bottom brackets is a classic case of something led by the industry, that as far as I can see only offered benefits for the manufacturer. For the user it was maybe a tiny bit lighter but not enough to make any difference. It was surely cheaper and easier for carbon frame moulds for manufacturers, and I guess cheaper to manufacture the BB itself as it needs less variants, but that didn't go well at all. As far as I could see they didn't offer any of the 4 benefits I look out for, and I don't expect we'll see high prices for them on ebay in the near or distant future. 

Taking out the obvious crazy outlier listings, and the premium priced all new shiny bells and whistles things, I think ebay prices give you a good idea of what people _really _think, real market prices. I've not got the tech skills to do it, but I'm sure doing some analysis of components and accessories that have been released over the last 20 years, and checking ebay prices of them, would make some interesting reading on what's been hot and what's not, and I bet the 'hots' are not the ones that have been 'pushed/advertised' the most. 

I think manufacturers could learn a lot from doing such research and not just concentrating on shifting volume. Haven't Jaguar recently started remaking modern versions of their old classic XKSS because second values of the original cars were going for such huge money, Jaguar figured there's probably more profit margins than their new cars and they may as well cash in and start making them again.

Us cyclists are a varied bunch, and try lots of stuff. With the existence of forums like this, we share our experiences and recommend stuff. I am far more likely to buy something on the recommendation of a friend or someone that has actually used it over time, than by what some manufacturer claims, but maybe that's because I'm a middle aged cynic


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## bpsmith (4 Jun 2018)

Aero frames will become the norm as more people realise that everyone can gain more speed or use less effort. Once the UCI remove or reduce the minimum bike weight, then those aero frames will soon weigh even less than now.

Traditional frame styles will soon resurge, obviously, as those Old Skool folk rebel but Aero will take over. I even think that this will overflow into other genres than just Road bikes.

I also think that we will see frames without cable routing for gears soon. Basically utilising eTap style connectivity. Just need a wireless braking solution and this changes everything.


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## fatjel (4 Jun 2018)

I think bikes have changed barely at all since I've been riding them. 
The frames are much as they have been for decades 
Derailleurs have been most cyclists gears of choice for decades despite being impossible to spell
Wheels are still round with rubber outers like they have been for decades
Saddles are still uncomfortable
Steering is achieved by a bar and leaning technique same as always

Disc brakes are a bit new but still rely on a lever pulling process and friction

Cyclist don't much like change it would seem


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## mikeymustard (4 Jun 2018)

bpsmith said:


> I even think that this will overflow into other genres than just Road bikes.


Yes, why are electric bikes so resolutely _"upright"_? (apart from the ones in the peloton, obviously  ) A bit of aero would do wonders for the longevity of a battery charge


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## bpsmith (4 Jun 2018)

mikeymustard said:


> Yes, why are electric bikes so resolutely _"upright"_? (apart from the ones in the peloton, obviously  ) A bit of aero would do wonders for the longevity of a battery charge


Perhaps they assume that anyone who would rather a battery powering the wheels would actually want to sit as upright as possible?


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## mikeymustard (4 Jun 2018)

bpsmith said:


> Perhaps they assume that anyone who would rather a battery powering the wheels would actually want to sit as upright as possible?


Yep, fair point, largely they seem to be modelled on the dutch bike style, but until battery technology improves then a few watts saved is a few extra miles


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## bpsmith (5 Jun 2018)

mikeymustard said:


> Yep, fair point, largely they seem to be modelled on the dutch bike style, but until battery technology improves then a few watts saved is a few extra miles


If that works for people then what’s not to like I guess?

I got schooled on a climb on the commute last week. It’s 1.3 miles long, averages about 3.8%, with some bits in double figures up to about 14% max.

This guy went past me at the traffic lights at the bottom. I tried to catch up but couldn’t. I thought I would play the long game as he spun away sitting casually. I couldn’t get anywhere near him until the very top when he had slowed on the flat. Then he was off again.

Anyway, about 3 miles further on, I caught up with him before he just stopped and was tapping his hand against the large black box of the down tube on his Giant MTB with knobblies!

Yup. His battery had cut out completely. No surprise after caning it up the hill and for a few miles after.


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## Shut Up Legs (5 Jun 2018)

I really hope wireless braking never takes over from brakes requiring cables. This would just turn our bikes into yet another thing requiring battery chargers. I've always thought bicycles are superior to cars, and one reason why is their simple, battery-free mechanical design.


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## mgs315 (5 Jun 2018)

Shut Up Legs said:


> I really hope wireless braking never takes over from brakes requiring cables. This would just turn our bikes into yet another thing requiring battery chargers. I've always thought bicycles are superior to cars, and one reason why is their simple, battery-free mechanical design.



Thankfully it seems too inconvenient/not fail-safe in order to happen. Either you’d have to have them fail on which means the bike can’t be ridden at all, or even worse fail off so you can’t stop!

Brake by wire sounds way too dangerous for my liking on bicycles. Maybe consider if dynamo power is mandatory to use such a system. Not to mention you’d still need some form of hydraulic actuator and all that stuff. Not weight friendly eh?

Maybe there’s a future for it if we ever end up with graphene frames but the UCI still keep the 6.8kg rule!


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## SkipdiverJohn (5 Jun 2018)

Kajjal said:


> It depends on practicality, marketing and built in redundancy. Often standards are changed to force people to upgrade / replace or create a "new" market. If you take mountain biking disk brakes, suspension and gearing have improved things massively. 3 x 8 gearing works fine but 2 x 11 or 1 x 11 is easier to use. Disc brakes are much better than the early 1990's cantilever brakes which were brakes in name only. The improvement in riding from 1990's rigid to current suspension designs is huge. The trick is to buy what works for you but is not too far off the mainstream to be supported.



If everybody refused to buy any of the marketing-driven crap ideas (like press-fit BB, threadless headsets, 1 x 11 drives, ultra low spoke count wheels, bikes with no tyre/mudguard clearance etc) then no matter how much they might want to force cyclists to "modernise", they would be left with unsold product. People who buy this rubbish are their own worst enemies as they are putting money into the pockets of corporations who are selling them something which is worse, not better, than the designs that have been around for years. I just look at 90% of the design features I see on modern road bikes and think "no thanks pal, you can keep all that junk" 

MTB's are a good example; for the kind of "off-road" riding 99% of owners do, there is absolutely no benefit whatsoever to having suspension, yet the industry no longer makes high quality all-rigid MTB's. The vast majority of riders are NOT extreme downhill racers, or jumpers, they are just blokes who like to clock up a few miles away from busy traffic on bumpy gravel and dirt tracks. Speed is not a consideration, and a rigid frame is not that punishing if the bike is ridden intelligently and not hammered. All it means is people like me who don't want the extra complication and weight of suspension, are simply going to keep riding 25-30 year old rigids from the days when MTB design was practical, simple, and versatile. If I don't want the full-sus product I'm just not buying it, no matter what hype they come out with about being faster and more comfortable.


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## Blue Hills (5 Jun 2018)

MontyVeda said:


> I can't see electric shifting staying around for long... the beauty of bikes is the simplicity.


Won't it stay at the top end? For anyone else, it amuses me.


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## Blue Hills (5 Jun 2018)

marzjennings said:


> But fortunatley with bikes it seems there’s always someone ensuring old tech is available or recreatable. Unlike my old mini-disc player for which I can’t find new discs for.
> 
> For me I’ve always kept an eye on new trends, but only really bought in after a year or two when the new idea seems to be sticking around. Once it seems a new trend is supported by multiple manufactures it’s a reasonably safe bet the new tech has legs for a for years. For example I don’t see anti-lock brakes ever becoming the norm, or even a hub that can control tyre pressure really taking off.





marzjennings said:


> Firstly all technology has a shelf life and in general we have to accept whatever we buy today will be incompatible in a few years. But fortunatley with bikes it seems there’s always someone ensuring old tech is available or



Yes, older stuff still available, and there is still lots of new old stuff turning up on ebay.


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## Blue Hills (5 Jun 2018)

One thing that won't be sticking around, already gone I think, is the madness of the suspension hub. Ditched my sus hub front on the dahon for a normal wheel. Which of course was fine. In my defence, i didn't seek this thing out, it came on a bike.


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## Blue Hills (5 Jun 2018)

Racing roadkill said:


> The way I look at it is, If it’s evolution, it will last, if it’s change for the sake of change, it won’t. As the saying goes, you have to innovate, or you’ll evaporate, but if it ain’t broke, don’t try to fix it.


Mm, lots of stuff evolves beyond usefulness. We're not talking darwinian evolution here. Also, the pressure to innovate you mention is often business driven, to stop bits becoming commodities.


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## Blue Hills (5 Jun 2018)

pawl said:


> A few months ago I was in the market fo a hybrid for riding easy tracks and trails. Unable to find a decent one that didn’t have disks.
> .


If you don't like discs, then I'd buy a nice lightly used second hand bike. Still a fair few around.


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## MontyVeda (5 Jun 2018)

Blue Hills said:


> *Won't it stay at the top end?* For anyone else, it amuses me.


possibly... for those with a team mechanic to check and change the batteries at the end of each ride. For everyone else, they'll realise that they're useless with a flat battery, are far too expensive to replace when damaged and will go back to a gear shifting mechanism that simply works.


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## Blue Hills (5 Jun 2018)

agree with you totally monty. Still, we can smile as folk with these things who really really don't need one are reduced to posting questions about faults/quirks on forums that to an outsider sound like the all too familiar computer problems. Have already seen a few asking about compatibility issues. One would think people would ride their bikes to get away from tech and other worldly concerns. I do.


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## MontyVeda (5 Jun 2018)

Blue Hills said:


> agree with you totally monty. Still, we can smile as folk with these things who really really don't need one are reduced to posting questions about faults/quirks on forums that to an outsider sound like the all too familiar computer problems. Have already seen a few asking about compatibility issues. One would think people would ride their bikes to get away from tech and other worldly concerns. I do.


they be electrifying the wheels next...


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## Kajjal (5 Jun 2018)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> If everybody refused to buy any of the marketing-driven crap ideas (like press-fit BB, threadless headsets, 1 x 11 drives, ultra low spoke count wheels, bikes with no tyre/mudguard clearance etc) then no matter how much they might want to force cyclists to "modernise", they would be left with unsold product. People who buy this rubbish are their own worst enemies as they are putting money into the pockets of corporations who are selling them something which is worse, not better, than the designs that have been around for years. I just look at 90% of the design features I see on modern road bikes and think "no thanks pal, you can keep all that junk"
> 
> MTB's are a good example; for the kind of "off-road" riding 99% of owners do, there is absolutely no benefit whatsoever to having suspension, yet the industry no longer makes high quality all-rigid MTB's. The vast majority of riders are NOT extreme downhill racers, or jumpers, they are just blokes who like to clock up a few miles away from busy traffic on bumpy gravel and dirt tracks. Speed is not a consideration, and a rigid frame is not that punishing if the bike is ridden intelligently and not hammered. All it means is people like me who don't want the extra complication and weight of suspension, are simply going to keep riding 25-30 year old rigids from the days when MTB design was practical, simple, and versatile. If I don't want the full-sus product I'm just not buying it, no matter what hype they come out with about being faster and more comfortable.



I know what you mean and started mountain biking on a fully rigid GT outpost in the early 1990's. On woodland or smooth trails it was ideal. Going round rougher tracks especially like those in the Edale area you took a real pounding and front suspension was a relief when it became affordable. Before that we used to finish a ride of a few hours and be unable to move our hands for a while 

Now I ride a hardtail and a full suspension bike as the trails near us are most fairly smooth but my middle aged body is not so forgiving now on the rough stuff if out for a good while. The main thing is just enjoy what ever riding you prefer.


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## Smokin Joe (5 Jun 2018)

MontyVeda said:


> possibly... for those with a team mechanic to check and change the batteries at the end of each ride. For everyone else, they'll realise that they're useless with a flat battery, are far too expensive to replace when damaged and will go back to a gear shifting mechanism that simply works.


In the same way motorists and motorcyclists went back to starting handles and kick starts, you mean?

Like it or not, electronic shifting is here to stay. Systems will get cheaper and more reliable, working their way down the price points on new bikes till they are commonplace. Cable systems will be around for a very long time to come, but electronics won't go away.


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## Blue Hills (5 Jun 2018)

MontyVeda said:


> they be electrifying the wheels next...


and more.

Since updates/bug fixes etc etc/protection against lack of availability of compatible version 1.1111 parts will be issues folk will want to protect themselves against, the gear control system will be rented to its users on a subscription bases. All will be well as long as you keep paying. If you don't your bike will effectively lock up.


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## MontyVeda (5 Jun 2018)

Smokin Joe said:


> In the same way motorists and motorcyclists went back to starting handles and kick starts, you mean?
> 
> Like it or not, electronic shifting is here to stay. Systems will get cheaper and more reliable, working their way down the price points on new bikes till they are commonplace. Cable systems will be around for a very long time to come, but electronics won't go away.


Not a great comparison, since motor vehicles already had the electric bits. 

One could argue that when some bright spark put a motor on a bike and hey-presto, invented the motorbike that the old fashioned manual bike will be a thing of the past.


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## Venod (5 Jun 2018)

Indicators, right angled bent cranks, oval chainrings (though there are people who use these) are a some of ideas that never took off, I am sure there must be more, I am surprised gear shifters are still manufactured with indicators (who came up with that one ?) are Midge Bars a trend or a genuine improvement ?

And while I am here and talking of old stuff, if anyone has a Cannondale Caffiene SL with a headshock let me know.


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## bpsmith (5 Jun 2018)

MontyVeda said:


> possibly... for those with a team mechanic to check and change the batteries at the end of each ride. For everyone else, they'll realise that they're useless with a flat battery, are far too expensive to replace when damaged and will go back to a gear shifting mechanism that simply works.


How long do you think these batteries last?

When was the last time you damaged your groupset and had to replace whole components?


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## Blue Hills (5 Jun 2018)

Afnug said:


> Indicators, right angled bent cranks, oval chainrings (though there are people who use these) are a some of ideas that never took off, I am sure there must be more, I am surprised gear shifters are still manufactured with indicators (who came up with that one ?) are Midge Bars a trend or a genuine improvement ?
> 
> And while I am here and talking of old stuff, if anyone has a Cannondale Caffiene SL with a headshock let me know.


Which headshock is that? I have a short travel switchable headshock on a frame currently stripped of bits - the original bike was the very nice Silk Warrior 1000 - blue thing many folk who used to come on my rides will know.

This.

https://www.bikepedia.com/QuickBike/BikeSpecs.aspx?item=37110

The Headshock still works - it was serviced not too long before I stripped the frame.

By the by, kinda related to this thread, many of the bits from that bike are now on a bike/frame and bits I paid £30 for - brought it home on a London bus, now my favourite bike


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## Venod (5 Jun 2018)

Blue Hills said:


> Which headshock is that? I


Not sure what model headshock, but the bike was a special lightweight from circa 2006/7 it was reviewed in Single track mag back then, I moded my 2008 headshock so I could fit 700c wheels with 30mm tyres it was a flyer on bridleways.


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## MontyVeda (5 Jun 2018)

bpsmith said:


> How long do you think these batteries last?
> 
> When was the last time you damaged your groupset and had to replace whole components?


so long that they'll run out unexpectedly mid ride. 

I reckon electric shifting will ultimately be a niche rather than become a lasting trend.


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## marzjennings (5 Jun 2018)

SkipdiverJohn said:


> , ...yet the industry no longer makes high quality all-rigid MTB's....



The rigid mtb is back in fashion again and available everywhere, except now they’re called gravel bikes. Looking at some of these bike they have the same geometry my old rigid mtb had 25 years ago. Sometimes a new trend is just an old trend reintroduced.


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## swee'pea99 (5 Jun 2018)

Friend of mine saw a bloke in tears at the start of the L'Étape du Tour - his electronic gears had conked out and nobody on the mechanics tent had a clue.


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## Blue Hills (5 Jun 2018)

marzjennings said:


> The rigid mtb is back in fashion again and available everywhere, except now they called gravel bikes. Looking at some of these bike they have the same geometry my old rigid mtb had 25 years ago. Sometimes a new trend is just an old trend reintroduced.


very true. I have a 20 year old hybrid that isn't a million miles from many modern tourers.

the term "gravel bike" still bemuses me - I didn't know there was so much gravel around


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## alecstilleyedye (5 Jun 2018)

team sky seem to have brought back diaderant forks…

used circa 1950 by bates…

Diadrant_forks.JPG


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## swansonj (5 Jun 2018)

Re the discussion about how, if you have electric gears, you're stuck if they fail:

How many people eschew brifters in favour of friction downtube levers for the same reason?


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## alecstilleyedye (5 Jun 2018)

i'm also very pleased that mark beaumont's heroic exploits haven't lead to an explosion in the use of butterfly bars…


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## screenman (5 Jun 2018)

Who needs this new fangled interweb thing, who would lose their job if people stopped buying the things you make.


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## Blue Hills (5 Jun 2018)

screenman said:


> Who needs this new fangled interweb thing, who would lose their job if people stopped buying the things you make.


sorry, you can't emotionally blackmail folk into buying stuff they feel they don't need, and which they might feel would make their cycling worse, with threats that they will be chucking someone out of a job.

Next thing you'll be writing ads asking if they would buy electronic gear changing if their dear mama's life depended on it.


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## screenman (5 Jun 2018)

Blue Hills said:


> sorry, you can't emotionally blackmail folk into buying stuff they feel they don't need, and which they might feel would make their cycling worse, with threats that they will be chucking someone out of a job.
> 
> Next thing you'll be writing ads asking if they would buy electronic gear changing if their dear mama's life depended on it.



Nothing of the sort, it was a genuine question. I am also sorry but I did not guess it was purely cycling related.


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## Blue Hills (5 Jun 2018)

Forgive my ignorance, can I ask what sort of batteries these systems use? Can they be swapped over mid-ride? Are they standard cells of any description?


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## bpsmith (5 Jun 2018)

MontyVeda said:


> so long that they'll run out unexpectedly mid ride.
> 
> I reckon electric shifting will ultimately be a niche rather than become a lasting trend.


If you do rides of around 750-1,500 miles perhaps. 

That’s a Google search showing the range of mileage I found.

If you were to have eTap, then you’re always carrying a spare battery as there’s one on each mech.

People manage to change their Garmin after every ride, so why would they not charge their batteries on eTap or Di2 every so often?


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## bpsmith (5 Jun 2018)

Blue Hills said:


> Forgive my ignorance, can I ask what sort of batteries these systems use? Can they be swapped over mid-ride? Are they standard cells of any description?


Di2 tends to be within the frame these days. One battery runs the whole system.

eTap has a battery mounted on each mech, which are interchangeable, plus I think they use standard CR2032 coin cells in the shifters.


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## StuAff (5 Jun 2018)

bpsmith said:


> If you do rides of around 750-1,500 miles perhaps.
> 
> That’s a Google search showing the range of mileage I found.
> 
> ...


Exactly. People somehow manage to do some very long rides with electronic shifting....Josh Ibbett won the Transcontinental Race with a Di2 bike.


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## bpsmith (5 Jun 2018)

StuAff said:


> Exactly. People somehow manage to do some very long rides with electronic shifting....Josh Ibbett won the Transcontinental Race with a Di2 bike.


Unbelievable how some people are so blinkered by reality, when it doesn’t suit them.

Don’t have Di2 myself, but the battery thing isn’t the reason tbh.

Mileage and battery life is all down to how many shifts are made, I am assuming. Hence the difference in mileage.

Can’t see it going flat mid ride unless not bothered charging tbh.


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## SkipdiverJohn (5 Jun 2018)

marzjennings said:


> The rigid mtb is back in fashion again and available everywhere, except now they’re called gravel bikes. Looking at some of these bike they have the same geometry my old rigid mtb had 25 years ago. Sometimes a new trend is just an old trend reintroduced.



Not quite though. The modern "gravel" bikes tend to run 700c wheels, not 26" MTB size. I've got a couple of what may be considered fairly ancient 700c hybrids fitted with stout tyres that are both perfectly capable of doing light off road riding, and do get used for this, but I still prefer an old-school 26" rigid MTB if riding in woods as I find them easier to manoeuvre in a tight space if you need to dodge obstructions. 700c size wheels make a bike feel more cumbersome, even if they do roll a bit better overall.


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## StuAff (5 Jun 2018)

700C or 650B (most can run both). And no reason why people can't buy two wheelsets, or swap tyres...


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## screenman (6 Jun 2018)

What does it matter if it will stand the test of time, if you want it and it will bring pleasure but it.


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## Blue Hills (6 Jun 2018)

bpsmith said:


> Di2 tends to be within the frame these days. One battery runs the whole system.
> 
> eTap has a battery mounted on each mech, which are interchangeable, plus I think they use standard CR2032 coin cells in the shifters.


Cripes, not the dreaded cr2032. Powerer of daft lights, the sometime powerer of my kitchen scales - half the time I have to rub the battery to get it to give me 5 secs of power.


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## Blue Hills (6 Jun 2018)

bpsmith said:


> Unbelievable how some people are so blinkered by reality, when it doesn’t suit them.
> 
> Don’t have Di2 myself, but the battery thing isn’t the reason tbh.
> 
> ...


Well rechargeable batteries do degrade of course. So it will at some point unless you are very careful. It's clearly something else to bother about for a machine that should be simple. Would car drivers put up with a system that required them to monitor battery charging? 
To clarify, i think them fine for competition use if that's what folk want. Anytning else, forget it.


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## jowwy (6 Jun 2018)

MontyVeda said:


> so long that they'll run out unexpectedly mid ride.
> 
> I reckon electric shifting will ultimately be a niche rather than become a lasting trend.


With more electric groupsets coming out and trickling down to the lower end of groupsets, i very much doubt they will become niche.........


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## swansonj (6 Jun 2018)

Blue Hills said:


> Well rechargeable batteries do degrade of course. So it will at some point unless you are very careful. It's clearly something else to bother about for a machine that should be simple. *Would car drivers put up with a system that required them to monitor battery charging? *
> To clarify, i think them fine for competition use if that's what folk want. Anytning else, forget it.


Actually, car drivers do have all sorts of things that need checking and replenishing on either a time basis or a use basis - from windscreen washer fluid through engine oil to cam belts.


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## Milkfloat (6 Jun 2018)

Blue Hills said:


> Well rechargeable batteries do degrade of course. So it will at some point unless you are very careful. It's clearly something else to bother about for a machine that should be simple.
> To clarify, i think them fine for competition use if that's what folk want. Anytning else, forget it.



Is that simple like a sticky gear cable, or a frayed cable inside an sti, maybe it is just simple indexing. All these things can actually be quite difficult for a bike novice to solve, but are not a problem with electronic gears. I don't think there is an answer to what is better, they both have positives and negatives (quite literally with batteries).


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## ianrauk (6 Jun 2018)

How long is it usually between Di2 charges?
I know its an open ended question but there must be a base time/use.


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## ianrauk (6 Jun 2018)

A friend who has Di2 once said to me. 'it's not essential or needed but it's nice to have'


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## Blue Hills (6 Jun 2018)

Dogtrousers said:


> I've noticed that a few fashion victims have started using telephones that require batteries. What madness is this? How do they propose to make emergency calls in the event of a power failure if their batteries run flat? No one will ever be able to remember to charge these devices and the rechargeable batteries will degrade very quickly.
> 
> I can't see that they will catch on. Rotary pulse dialling is the only sensible option.


now now. Hardly a parallel. And just because some things use batteries, for a real benefit, it hardly follows that it's a good idea for everything to be battery powered, rechargeable or not.

Or, praps I could pop round your house and recommend a whole host of household objects that should be rechargeable battery powered - then you can monitor their charge level in a spreadsheet app. I am sure if I took your line I could find hundreds of things in your house, many many just in the kitchen.


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## Blue Hills (6 Jun 2018)

ianrauk said:


> How long is it usually between Di2 charges?
> I know its an open ended question but there must be a base time/use.


no idea, but it will surely shrink.

And in respons to points above about recharging garmins, I don't with mine - can happily run it to the bottom on a ride - throw more high capacity compact AAs in. I avoid button cells and built-in batteries of all kinds. Hell I'm old enough to remember Psion introducing a built in battery version of their wonderful organiser hand-held computer. How the hell that was an advance on a AA powered version you could use anywhere I have no idea.


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## Blue Hills (6 Jun 2018)

swansonj said:


> Actually, car drivers do have all sorts of things that need checking and replenishing on either a time basis or a use basis - from windscreen washer fluid through engine oil to cam belts.


er yes but not a relatively low capacity battery which, when it runs down, will render their car inoperable.


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## ianrauk (6 Jun 2018)

Blue Hills said:


> no idea, but it will surely shrink.



I think I remember some one saying it lasts 6 months easy between charges.


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## jowwy (6 Jun 2018)

ianrauk said:


> How long is it usually between Di2 charges?
> I know its an open ended question but there must be a base time/use.


Lasts about 1500miles.......but it links to garmins and shows battery life and gear selection on the screen. So its easy to know when to plug it in........etap lasts around the same.

So going on last years mileage, my 2 bikes wont need charging this year lol


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## Blue Hills (6 Jun 2018)

Yes, on brifters, I used to lead lots of rides. I well remember someone turning up at the station in the Kent countryside for the off. He'd got off the train and then found that his brakes wouldn't work. No matter how much he fiddled. He was a technical sort but couldn't figure out what the problem was. As a flat bar person this came as news to me that such a thing was possible. ie - the cause would usually be pretty clear - something detached or a cable broken. He just had to get back on the train.

On the batteries, are they affected by cold? Lots of batteries are.


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## bpsmith (6 Jun 2018)

We really are clutching at straws for the Di2/eTap bashing.

Personal experience from people above suggests that it works just fine.

I can’t comment myself, as never ridden electronic gears, so perhaps others should just accept the experience of others too maybe?


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## Smokin Joe (6 Jun 2018)

bpsmith said:


> We really are clutching at straws for the Di2/eTap bashing.
> 
> Personal experience from people above suggests that it works just fine.
> 
> I can’t comment myself, as never ridden electronic gears, so perhaps others should just accept the experience of others too maybe?


Whenever anything new comes out, every single reported fault is highlighted as to why it will never work. Yet the usual breakages on traditional kit is just regarded as "One of those things".


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## bpsmith (6 Jun 2018)

Smokin Joe said:


> Whenever anything new comes out, every single reported fault is highlighted as to why it will never work. Yet the usual breakages on traditional kit is just regarded as "One of those things".


You’re right. You’d have thought people would have got over it...9 years later.


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## Blue Hills (6 Jun 2018)

Smokin Joe said:


> Whenever anything new comes out, every single reported fault is highlighted as to why it will never work. Yet the usual breakages on traditional kit is just regarded as "One of those things".


Not aware that anyone is saying it will never work. I had the impression that there was a general view that it does work but that the fag and expense and other factors will, to the sensible, mean it will stay a niche product. Been across london twice/four times today and i genuinely cannot see that electronic shifting would have improved my rides/day.


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## Ajax Bay (6 Jun 2018)

alecstilleyedye said:


> diaderant forks…
> used circa 1950 by bates…


1935 onwards
http://www.classiclightweights.co.uk/builders/bates3.html


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## jowwy (6 Jun 2018)

Blue Hills said:


> Not aware that anyone is saying it will never work. I had the impression that there was a general view that it does work but that the fag and expense and other factors will, to the sensible, mean it will stay a niche product. Been across london twice/four times today and i genuinely cannot see that electronic shifting would have improved my rides/day.


Why to the "sensible"....... are you saying di2/etap riders are nonsensical??? Or is it just a case of the green eyed monster as the cost means your unable to purchase, so will use abusive cliches towards the people that can and enjoy its use??


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## StuAff (6 Jun 2018)

Electronic shifting hasn't, at least yet, trickled down to lower-end groups (105/Rival/Centaur level) let alone the bargain basement. But it's still fairly early days- carbon frames were still sitting at far higher price points a decade ago, a similar timeframe. That said, they cost no more in running costs than mechanical groups- no cable replacements, same cassettes and chains, same option to fit cheaper cassettes and chains rather than DA/Red/Ultegra…


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## mikeymustard (7 Jun 2018)

Quite often, it's not til another technological innovation comes along before the original "advance" makes sense, like indexed gearing seemed largely pointless to skilled users of the down tube lever until the advent of the brake shifter.

I remember the arguments back in the day "oh that safety bicycle idea will never catch on, harsh ride" etc. then the pneumatic tyre came along and jobs a good'un! 

Perhaps, electronic shifting needs a partner innovation (and a massive price drop) before it becomes a must have item.



Dogtrousers said:


> A while ago I was approaching Combe Lane in Surrey when a roadie whizzed past me. As we started the ascent of Combe Lane I passed him pulled over, twiddling with barrel adjusters. I asked if he wanted any help, and he declined* and I trundled on. A bit later he zoomed past again but once more I took the lead as he had to stop to fiddle with his indexing. If only he'd had DI2 he'd have won this titanic struggle. In the end I took all the glory, and he was left gnashing his teeth dreaming of what might have been.
> 
> * Good thing too. I'm hopeless at indexing gears.


I have never had to stop and "twiddle my barrel adjusters" (I hope that's not a euphemism), when set up properly and maintained gears rarely need adjustment. He was probably just having a rest!


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## jowwy (7 Jun 2018)

StuAff said:


> Electronic shifting hasn't, at least yet, trickled down to lower-end groups (105/Rival/Centaur level) let alone the bargain basement. But it's still fairly early days- carbon frames were still sitting at far higher price points a decade ago, a similar timeframe. That said, they cost no more in running costs than mechanical groups- no cable replacements, same cassettes and chains, same option to fit cheaper cassettes and chains rather than DA/Red/Ultegra…


Ultegra di2 for road and xt di2 for mountain is mid range.........2yrs ago on merlin cycles you could get a full di2 groupset for £550. Same cost as full ultegra mechanical...........so it is trickling down, just not as quick as most people would wish.

Yes its a luxury to have as an ameteur cyclists, but that doesnt make it any less sensible than any other groupset you may purchase


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## Blue Hills (7 Jun 2018)

jowwy said:


> Why to the "sensible"....... are you saying di2/etap riders are nonsensical??? Or is it just a case of the green eyed monster as the cost means your unable to purchase, so will use abusive cliches towards the people that can and enjoy its use??


I said no such thing. I abused no one. Maybe you should wander over to politics. I clearly said that it had its applications. I don't consider it sensible for general purpose cycling and said so, politely, a perfectly reasonable view. If it did make inroads into that very broad area of cycling I would consider it a backward step. A perfectly reasonable view. If someone wants to use it, including you, fine.


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## Drago (7 Jun 2018)

Green eyed monster? What a Lob. Unless some poor schmoe is living on benefits it's hardly out of reach. After all, most Di2 owners seem to have an absence of Maseratis on their driveways. What makes me chuckle are the people that hark on about how mortals don't have Di2 because they can't afford it, but then hang it on mediocre frames themselves.

I don't have a downer on it, I don't dislike it, it just leaves me cold like smartphones do. It just doesn't twitch my Y fronts, and I own two houses with no mortgage if aspiring to Di2 is some kind of weird Willy wagging competition.


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## Levo-Lon (7 Jun 2018)

I personally love progress.
I like trying new things.

That said some changes are simple marketing ploys to keep us spending.
Old school approach will always be the simpler more cost effective option..


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## Venod (7 Jun 2018)

My view on Di2/Etap is the same as @Drago, a nice bit of kit but can't get excited about it, I have built quite a few bikes since the introduction of Di2 and everytime I have asked myself do I install it this time, I go through the pros and cons and always end up fitting mechanical, I am not saying never as people I ride with praise it highly and it does have some good points, but I always come back to, "I move my brake lever and it changes" "if I press the button on Di2 it changes" which is easier to work on and most likely not to let me down, and the answer always comes back, mechanical.


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## Drago (7 Jun 2018)

Cycling is all things to all people. Leisure riders, commuters, hard core MTBers, trail pootlers, utility riders, disqualified drivers who cycle under sufference, and about 600 different flavours and sub categories of road cyclist. For one cyclist to suggest that another doesn't have a particular piece of equipment because they cant afford it is one of the most smug, insufferable things I've ever heard said.

Cycling is a broad church with a huge and varied congregation. The Church of Cycling (tm, Drago Ecumenical Enterprises 2018) welcomes those from all denominations. Or it should. The odd self appointed lay preacher who criticises others for not conforming to their ideals is the sort of chap who would start wars over minor religious differences of opinion.

Someone does like a bit of kit you do. Big deal, get over it. You must get a huge shock when you nip out in the car and most of the nation has the bareface temerity to drive a different make and model to you. How dare they! And don't get me started on those fools who don't like the same ice cream as me. I mean, those idiots who don't love mint choccie chip and custard sausage flavour ice cream clearly just can't afford it...


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## jowwy (7 Jun 2018)

Drago said:


> Green eyed monster? What a Lob. Unless some poor schmoe is living on benefits it's hardly out of reach. After all, most Di2 owners seem to have an absence of Maseratis on their driveways. What makes me chuckle are the people that hark on about how mortals don't have Di2 because they can't afford it, but then hang it on mediocre frames themselves.
> 
> I don't have a downer on it, I don't dislike it, it just leaves me cold like smartphones do. It just doesn't twitch my Y fronts, and I own two houses with no mortgage if aspiring to Di2 is some kind of weird Willy wagging competition.


Will wagging competition? Says the guy who just quoted he had two houses and no mortgage............or is that not willy wagging. Buy another house, you may then be one closer to what i own


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## Drago (7 Jun 2018)

The point was raised only to counter yours that someone else doesnt have Di2 because they dont have financial means. I thought it was as obvious as a low flying piano, but I may have been uncharacteristally subtle if you missed the point.


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## jowwy (7 Jun 2018)

Blue Hills said:


> I said no such thing. I abused no one. Maybe you should wander over to politics. I clearly said that it had its applications. I don't consider it sensible for general purpose cycling and said so, politely, a perfectly reasonable view. If it did make inroads into that very broad area of cycling I would consider it a backward step. A perfectly reasonable view. If someone wants to use it, including you, fine.


Yes you did.....indirectly when you stated "to the sensible".................just cause someone owns it. It doesnt make them less sensible than others 

And as for you @Drago your about as subtle as a falling house brick smashing a consevatory roof


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## Blue Hills (7 Jun 2018)

Drago said:


> The point was raised only to counter yours that someone else doesnt have Di2 because they dont have financial means. I thought it was as obvious as a low flying piano, but I may have been uncharacteristally subtle if you missed the point.


Only just seen this.
Yes Drago, it was perfectly clear to me what you meant and doubtless to others - ie: you can afford it but choose not to spend money on it. There was no hint of bragging at all about the house/mortgage situation.

I always think one of the best things about cycling is the sense of zen like calm it brings on 

all the best

ps - my sort of cycling declaration - lots of bikes, not a full on racer or downhill off-roader - got back into cycling too late for that to be on - fast enough and have done, nay led, some long tough rides - the blue beat messiah can maybe vouch for the last point


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## booze and cake (7 Jun 2018)

The perfect accessory for this threads willy wavers, check out the big pink Ofmega one in this article

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...rful-derailleurs-and-how-they-changed-cycling

Notable that the Huret Jubilee derailleur from 1974 is still a good bit lighter than the current Dura Ace option.


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## Blue Hills (7 Jun 2018)

thanks for that - some interesting bits of engineering, design and history in there. My first thought on seeing the pink thing was "yuk", followed by "it looks like a sex toy" - luckily I was relieved to then find that the writer thinks the same so I'm clearly not totally warped. Must admit I like my old ultegra mech - came with an old bike, still running, about to replace the jockey wheels so I am quietly confident it will surpass 20 years of service.


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## jowwy (7 Jun 2018)

Blue Hills said:


> Only just seen this.
> There was no hint of bragging at all about the house/mortgage situation.


What would you call it then? especially as the thread is about trends in cycling, what has having multiple house's and being mortgage free got to do with it, other than bragging???


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## Alan O (7 Jun 2018)

booze and cake said:


> The perfect accessory for this threads willy wavers, check out the big pink Ofmega one in this article
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/environ...rful-derailleurs-and-how-they-changed-cycling
> 
> Notable that the Huret Jubilee derailleur from 1974 is still a good bit lighter than the current Dura Ace option.


Excellent read and well written. I liked "_Shimano finally gave in to the inevitability of having to sell its top-of-the-line groupset to fat middle-aged men who want low, low gears_" - felt like it was talking to me


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## Alan O (7 Jun 2018)

I have to say I often find "old vs new" arguments somewhat bemusing, as I'm someone who loves old-fashioned mechanical craftsmanship - but I'm also a sucker for modern electrickery. I love my steel road bikes with 6-speed freewheels and friction shifters, and with their classic good looks. But that's only one of the reasons I'm not interested in modern carbon bikes - another reason is that I fear I'd like them and get sucked into significantly more expense. (And while I think vintage bikes look the best, I don't find all modern bikes ugly - a lot are, yes, but there are some very nice looking ones too.)

One of my other great passions is photography, and I still shoot film in completely mechanical cameras with no batteries - and they're gorgeous things. But I love my DSLR too. To me, they're just two aspects of the same art - much like different kinds of bikes.

At my time of life I'm extremely unlikely to buy a carbon bike or electronic shifters - but the 20-yo me from years ago who craved the best Reynolds tubing would almost certainly be wanting them.

Anyway, must rush - I think there's a service just starting at Drago's Church of Cycling and I don't want to be late.


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## Rickshaw Phil (7 Jun 2018)

*Mod note:*

Could we cut out the bickering about whether having a certain bit of kit is willy waving or not. It's straying off topic and disrupting the discussion.

If you like a gizmo and want it, that is fine. If you don't like it and don't want it, no problem. Back on topic from here.


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## bpsmith (7 Jun 2018)

I reckon the Willy Waving trend won’t last! 

I also hope the More Money Than Sense trend won’t last! 

On a serious note, I find it very interesting when people rubbish new trends and covet more traditional trends that were themselves rubbished by the generation before them.

I think we all just need to accept that some things from the era we are from seem to give a warmer glow than stuff from the previous or subsequent era.

I love real quality items that have a touch of individualism and thought about them. I can see the attraction of more traditional style bikes, when a pukka condition bike with quality parts shows itself. It will never give me that warm glow like my current bikes though. I suspect, in years to come, that the newer styled bikes won’t bring that glow either.

I just hope that I can remember that fact and not rubbish others for liking the current trends.


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